Identifying the role of neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio and platelets-to-lymphocyte ratio as prognostic markers in patients undergoing resection of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma

Comparison of Systemic Inflammatory Indices With the Oncotype DX Recurrence Score and the Nottingam Prognostic Index in Early Hormone Receptor Positive Ductal Breast Cancer

BACKGROUND

Adjuvant therapy decisions in hormone receptor positive, HER2 negative breast cancer are evolving. Gene panel testing has reduced the number of patients recommended for chemotherapy by up to two thirds. Identifying low risk genomic cases before testing could represent a significant economic impact. Systemic inflammatory indices have shown promise as prognostic markers in early breast cancer. We investigated the utility of four systemic inflammatory indices with the Nottingham Prognostic Index to predict the Oncotype DX® recurrence scores threshold level (low or high score), in women aged 50 and over with node negative invasive ductal carcinoma of the breast.

METHODS

A retrospective review of 245 patients with Oncotype DX® Recurrence Score testing from 2007 to 2021 were identified. The Nottingham Prognostic Index and systemic inflammatory indices ratios were estimated from histology results and preoperative peripheral blood samples respectively.

RESULTS

22.4% of the cohort had a Recurrence Score in the higher risk group. This group had a greater percentage of grade 3 tumours, progesterone receptor negativity, higher Nottingham Prognostic Scores, and inflammatory indices ratios than the lower risk group. A decision tree incorporating the Neutrophil Lymphocyte Ratio with clinicopathological features showed potential as an indicator of a high Oncotype DX® RS score, such that further investigation is warranted to assess whether Recurrence Score testing could be triaged in certain cohorts of patients. In this study, 38% of patients might be able to avoid genomic testing based on the decision tree analysis.

CONCLUSION

Utility of inflammatory indices with clinicopathological features may help triage gene panel testing.

Focus on Therapeutic Options for Surgically Resectable Pancreatic Adenocarcinoma Based on Novel Biomarkers

Pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma remains associated with a poor prognosis, even when diagnosed at an early stage. Consequently, it is imperative to carefully consider the available therapeutic options and tailor them based on clinically relevant biomarkers. In our comprehensive review, we specifically concentrated on the identification of novel predictive and prognostic markers that have the potential to be integrated into multiparametric scoring systems. These scoring systems aim to accurately predict the efficacy of neoadjuvant chemotherapy in surgically resectable pancreatic cancer cases. By identifying robust predictive markers, we can enhance our ability to select patients who are most likely to benefit from neoadjuvant chemotherapy. Furthermore, the identification of prognostic markers can provide valuable insights into the overall disease trajectory and inform treatment decisions. The development of multiparametric scoring systems that incorporate these markers holds great promise for optimizing the selection of patients for neoadjuvant chemotherapy, leading to improved outcomes in resectable pancreatic neoplasia. Continued research efforts are needed to validate and refine these markers and scoring systems, ultimately advancing the field of personalized medicine in pancreatic adenocarcinoma management.

Inflammation-Based Prognostic Scores in Pancreatic Cancer Patients-A Single-Center Analysis of 1294 Patients within the Last Decade

Inflammatory properties are known to promote tumor progression leading to an impaired median overall survival (mOS). Various small studies have focused on a wide range of inflammation-based prognostic indicators. By using sufficient data from 1294 out of 2323 patients diagnosed with pancreatic cancer between 2009 and 2021 at our cancer center, inflammatory markers such as the neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio (NRL), the platelet to lymphocyte ratio (PLR), the lymphocyte to monocyte ratio (LMR) and the CRP to albumin ratio (CAR) were evaluated. We identified a new combined score, termed the inflammatory benchmark index (IBI). We performed univariate and multivariate overall survival analyses and identified optimal prognostic cut-off values for each parameter. In univariate analyses, advanced age (p < 0.001), gender (p < 0.001), tumor stage (p < 0.001), CA19-9 (p = 0.001), NLR (p = 0.001), LMR (p = 0.004), PLR (p = 0.004), CAR (p = 0.001) and IBI (p = 0.001) were identified as prognostic markers. In multivariate analyses advanced age (p < 0.001), gender (p = 0.001), tumor stage (p < 0.001), CA19-9 (p < 0.001), NLR (p = 0.001), LMR (p = 0.038), CAR (p < 0.001) and IBI (p < 0.001) were independent prognostic markers. These findings emphasize the impact of inflammation in pancreatic cancer, provide easily accessible prognostic values for the clinician, and may be useful as stratification parameters for trials aimed at patient inflammation or immune response.

Factors independently associated with prognosis in patients operated for pancreatic cancer: Assessing the role of various parameters including red cell distribution width, neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio, and platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio

Objective: We aimed to assess whether, among other parameters, preoperative red cell distribution width (RDW), neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), and platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (PLR) values were associated with prognosis in patients operated for pancreatic cancer (PC). Material and Method: This retrospective cohort was conducted from February 1, 2016 to February 1, 2021 at the general surgery department of a university hospital in Turkey. A total of 75 patients histologically diagnosed with PC who had undergone surgery were included in the study. Results: The PLR values of patients with poorly differentiated and undifferentiated tumors were found to be higher than those with moderately and highly differentiated tumors. Also, there was a significant relationship between PLR values and the length of hospital stay. PLR values increased as the length of hospital stay increased. There was a statistically significant positive correlation between CA 19-9 levels and NLR and PLR. High total bilirubin level was related with increased risk of death, while adjuvant chemotherapy recipients had 4.049-fold lower risk of death than those without adjuvant chemotherapy. Conclusion: Our results indicate that preoperative NLR, PLR and RDW cannot be used as prognostic indicators of mortality in patients with operated PC, but high PLR appears to be associated with lower level of tumor differentiation and prolonged hospital stay. We also found that high total bilirubin was a poor prognostic factor, while adjuvant chemotherapy was a good prognostic factor. Further multicenter, prospective studies with larger sample sizes will help to verify these results.

Does Preoperative Serum Neutrophil to Lymphocyte Ratio (NLR), Platelet to Lymphocyte Ratio (PLR), and Lymphocyte to Monocyte Ratio (LMR) Predict Prognosis Following Radical Surgery for Pancreatic Adenocarcinomas? Results of a Retrospective Study

BACKGROUND

Pretherapy serum neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio (NLR), platelet to lymphocyte ratio (PLR), and lymphocyte to monocyte ratio (LMR) have been shown to predict prognosis in patients with pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC). However, the published literature is conflicting; hence, we aimed to evaluate their role in predicting survival outcomes in operated patients of PDAC.

METHODS

A retrospective analysis was performed in all operated cases of PDAC who underwent curative resection between 2011 and 2018. The pretherapy NLR, PLR, and LMR were calculated and analyzed with respect to pathological and survival outcomes RESULTS: One hundred thirty-four operated patients were included. The median overall survival for NLR of less than 2, 2.7, and 5 was 30.8, 27.2, and 27.5 months and for NLR of more than 2, 2.7, and 5 was 22.9, 21.6, and 21.5 months, respectively, and was statistically insignificant (p-value-0.32, 0.91, 0.34, respectively). Similarly, the PLR was not significant for a cutoff of 150 (p-value-0.27), and LMR was not significant for a cutoff of 2.8 (p-value-0.13) and 4.8 (p-value-0.11). On univariate analysis age, CA 19-9 levels, perineural invasion, margin positivity, lymph node positivity, and TNM stage were found to have a significant correlation with overall survival. However, on multivariate analysis, only TNM stage was found to be significant.

CONCLUSION

The NLR, PLR, and LMR do not correlate with overall survival in operated patients with PDAC in this study. A combination of inflammatory markers or their dynamic testing might probably achieve prognostic significance.

Change in Neutrophil-to-Lymphocyte Ratio During Neoadjuvant Treatment Does Not Predict Pathological Response and Survival in Resectable Pancreatic Ductal Adenocarcinoma

BACKGROUND

Neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) has been reported as prognostic in pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC). Data about NLR changes during neoadjuvant therapy (NAT) and its relationship with pathological tumor response and survival are lacking.

METHODS

Pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma patients with NAT followed by resection between 2009 and 2015 were identified from a prospective database. Neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio was collected prior to NAT (baseline), on chemotherapy (prior to cycle 3), and prior to surgery. Baseline NLR, and changes in NLR between baseline and on chemotherapy (delta 1) and between baseline and surgery (delta 2) were compared with pathologic response (<90% and ≥90% defined as poor and good), overall (OS), and disease-free survival (DFS) using Wilcoxon rank-sum and Cox proportional hazard models.

RESULTS

Of 93 patients, 17% had good pathological response. Median (interquartile range) NLR at baseline, third cycle, and surgery were 2.7 (2.0-3.7), 2.5 (1.9-4.1), and 3.1 (2.1-5.3), respectively. Median change in NLR from baseline to third cycle was .06 (P = .72), and .6 from baseline to surgery (P < .01). Baseline NLR, delta 1, and delta 2 were not associated with pathological response, OS, or DFS.

DISCUSSION

Neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio increased after NAT, but a significant association between NLR and pathological response, OS, and DFS in resected PDAC patients was not observed.

Multi-Phase, Contrast-Enhanced Computed Tomography-Based Radiomic Prognostic Marker of Non-Metastatic Pancreatic Ductal Adenocarcinoma

Background/Aim: This study investigated the predictive ability of intra-tumor enhancement on computed tomography (CT) for the outcomes of patients with pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDA). Methods: Multi-phase, contrast-enhanced CT (including unenhanced, pancreatic parenchymal phase (PPP) and portal venous phase (PVP)) images of patients diagnosed with non-metastatic PDA were analyzed to investigate prognostic factors. Results: Two hundred ninety-eight patients with PDA (159 with resectable pancreatic cancer (RPC) and 139 with borderline resectable pancreatic cancer (BRPC)/locally advanced pancreatic cancer (LAPC)) were included. The attenuation values of PDA during the PPP (94.5 vs. 60.7 HU; p <0.001) and PVP (101.5 vs. 75.5 HU; p <0.001) were higher in patients with RPC than in those with BRPC/LAPC. Well-enhanced PDA during the PPP was associated with longer overall survival in the RPC group (27.9 vs. 15.4 months; p <0.001) and the BRPC/LAPC group (22.7 vs. 13.6 months; p = 0.024). Patients with BRPC/LAPC who underwent neoadjuvant treatment and had well-enhanced PDA during the PPP were more likely to undergo resection. Although tumor size was also an independent prognostic factor, it was not correlated with intra-tumoral enhancement during the PPP. Conclusions: Intra-tumoral contrast enhancement on CT is an independent prognostic factor in patients with non-metastatic PDA.

Development of nomograms related to inflammatory biomarkers to estimate the prognosis of bladder cancer after radical cystectomy

Background

Bladder cancer is one of the most common carcinomas and it brings about huge social economic burden. There is not a reliable way to predict the prognosis of bladder patients. We develop the nomogram to predict the prognosis of bladder cancer patients.

Methods

A total of 127 bladder cancer patients after radical cystectomy were studied retrospectively. Their clinicopathological data were collected for statistical analysis.

Results

The level of albumin/globulin ratio (AGR), C-reactive protein/albumin ratio (CAR), neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio (NLR) and platelet to lymphocyte ratio (PLR) associated with pathological and hematological parameters like T stage and hemoglobin. Furthermore, the AGR was associated with overall survival (OS) and CAR, NLR, and PLR were associated with both OS and progression-free survival (PFS) (P<0.05). The multivariate analysis revealed that tobacco smoking, tumor T stage, M stage, NLR, CAR, and AGR were all independent predictors for OS of patients and tobacco smoking, tumor T stage, NLR, CAR, and AGR were independent predictors for PFS of patients. In addition, AGR, CAR, and NLR, as well as, the clinicopathological parameters in the development of nomograms with a C index of 0.901 (95% CI: 0.505-1.269) for OS, and 0.807 (95% CI: 0.755-0.858) for PFS. The nomograms were able to provide a prognosis of the OS with the area under the curve (AUC) =0.86. Further, tests assessed the PFS with the AUC =0.84.

Conclusions

This study demonstrates that the nomograms of the inflammatory biomarkers were able to predict prognosis of bladder cancer patients after radical cystectomy.

Attrition during neoadjuvant chemotherapy for gastric adenocarcinoma is associated with decreased survival: A United States Safety-Net Collaborative analysis

BACKGROUND

Neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC) is standard management for localized gastric cancer (GC). Attrition during NAC due to treatment-related toxicity or functional decline is considered a surrogate for worse biologic outcomes; however, data supporting this paradigm are lacking. We investigated factors predicting attrition and its association with overall survival (OS) in GC.

METHODS

Patients with nonmetastatic GC initiating NAC were identified from the US Safety-Net Collaborative (2012-2014). Patient/treatment-related characteristics were compared between attrition/nonattrition cohorts. Cox models determined factors associated with OS.

RESULTS

Of 116 patients initiating NAC, attrition during prescribed NAC occurred in 24%. No differences were observed in performance status, comorbidities, treatment at safety-net hospital, or clinicopathologic factors between cohorts. Despite absence of distinguishing factors, attrition was associated with worse OS (median: 11 vs. 37 months; p = 0.01) and was an independent predictor of mortality (hazard ratio [HR]: 4.7, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.5-15.2; p = 0.02). Fewer patients with attrition underwent curative-intent surgery (39% vs. 89%; p < 0.001). Even in patients undergoing surgical exploration (n = 89), NAC attrition remained an independent predictor of worse OS (HR: 50.8, 95% CI: 3.6-717.8; p = 0.004) despite similar receipt of adjuvant chemotherapy.

CONCLUSION

Attrition during NAC for nonmetastatic GC is independently associated with worse OS, even in patients undergoing surgery. Attrition during NAC may reflect unfavorable tumor biology not captured by conventional staging metrics.

Fibrinogen-Albumin Ratio Index (FARI) as a Certain Prognostic Biomarker in Pretreated Patients with Immunotherapy

Purpose

Immunotherapy has become the standard treatment for advanced tumors so that many biomarkers play parts in predicting prognosis and clinical outcome. Use of FARI is increasing, but there are no studies on its use prior to immunotherapy.

Patients and Methods

A retrospective study prior to immunotherapies in advanced carcinoma used FARI and other biomarkers as clinical parameters from which to analyse data from January 2014 to November 2020. Data were presented in GraphPad Prism 7 and X-Tile and analyzed using IBM SPSS.

Results

A total of 146 patients were enrolled in our study. FARI (with an optimal cut-off value of 11.1%) was divided into a high group, in connection with shorter OS mainly in patients with bone metastasis (120m vs 11.5m, 95% Cl: 12.17–23.83, SE: 2.974, p=0.03), and a low group with a longer PFS (11.0m vs 5.0m, 95% Cl: 3.303–12.697, SE: 2.397, p=0.03) in NSCLC but a shorter PFS (3.5m vs 5.5m, 95% Cl: 3.757–6.243, SE: 0.634, p=0.01) in liver metastasis. FARI was not determined as an independent predictor of OS in patients undergoing medical therapies (>11.1% vs ≤11.1%, HR: 1.296, 95% Cl: 0.687–2.032, p=0.314). ECOG (HR: 2.892, 95% Cl: 1.911–4.378, p<0.001) can be an independent predictor for PFS and OS in advanced carcinoma.

Conclusion

Our findings highlight certain potential values for predicting prognosis but no outstanding biomarkers prior to immunotherapy according to FARI.

Lipocalin 2 mediates appetite suppression during pancreatic cancer cachexia

Lipocalin 2 (LCN2) was recently identified as an endogenous ligand of the type 4 melanocortin receptor (MC4R), a critical regulator of appetite. However, it remains unknown if this molecule influences appetite during cancer cachexia, a devastating clinical entity characterized by decreased nutrition and progressive wasting. We demonstrate that LCN2 is robustly upregulated in murine models of pancreatic cancer, its expression is associated with reduced food consumption, and Lcn2 deletion is protective from cachexia-anorexia. Consistent with LCN2's proposed MC4R-dependent role in cancer-induced anorexia, pharmacologic MC4R antagonism mitigates cachexia-anorexia, while restoration of Lcn2 expression in the bone marrow is sufficient in restoring the anorexia feature of cachexia. Finally, we observe that LCN2 levels correlate with fat and lean mass wasting and is associated with increased mortality in patients with pancreatic cancer. Taken together, these findings implicate LCN2 as a pathologic mediator of appetite suppression during pancreatic cancer cachexia.

Association of Weight Change, Inflammation Markers and Disease Staging with Survival of Patients Undergoing Chemotherapy for Pancreatic Adenocarcinoma

INTRODUCTION

Cancer-associated-cachexia represents a systemic syndrome of unintended weight-loss (WL) and systemic inflammation, affecting >80% patients with pancreatic adenocarcinoma (PA). We aimed to evaluate the association of weight change (WC) with survival of patients treated with chemotherapy (ChT) for PA and the influence of disease staging. We also studied the prognostic and predictive value of inflammation-based scores.

METHODS

Observational, retrospective cohort study. Individuals were divided into two cohorts, according to WC (WL ≥5% vs. non-WL <5%) after ChT. Main endpoints were weight change and survival time. Statistical analysis was performed using Stata software.

RESULTS

Sixty-five patients were included (median age 69; 48% female), 60% with advanced disease. At 3 months after ChT start, 54% experienced WL. Advanced disease independently predicted WL (OR 2.10; 95% CI, 1.11-19.6; p = 0.041). With median follow-up of 14.8 mo, median survival time of patients with WL was 18.5 mo, vs. 33.2 vs. for non-WL (HR 2.28; 95% CI, 1.15-4.52; p = 0.019). In patients with early-stage disease, WL was associated with decreased survival time (21.9 vs. 67.6 mo; HR 23.68; 95% CI 2.39-234.75; p = 0.007), while the association of WL on survival time in advanced disease was not significant (HR 0.74; 95% CI, 0.34-1.60; p = 0.449). The multivariate survival model showed that WL (HR 1.11, 95% CI 1.03-1.20, p = 0.005) and cachexia (HR 3.76, 95% CI 1.07-13-18), p = 0.041) were associated with survival time, as well as location in body or tail (HR 3.05; 95% CI, 1.75-5.31; p < 0.001) and high Neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) at 3 months (HR 6.20; 95% CI, 2.59-14.87; p < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

WL was an independent prognostic factor for survival. Particularly in early stage disease, interventions targeting this modifiable factor may translate into better outcomes for PA patients. NLR may be a surrogate marker of systemic inflammatory status in this setting.

Diagnostic, Predictive and Prognostic Molecular Biomarkers in Pancreatic Cancer: An Overview for Clinicians

Pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) is the most common pancreatic malignancy and is associated with aggressive tumor behavior and poor prognosis. Most patients with PDAC present with an advanced disease stage and treatment-resistant tumors. The lack of noninvasive tests for PDAC diagnosis and survival prediction mandates the identification of novel biomarkers. The early identification of high-risk patients and patients with PDAC is of utmost importance. In addition, the identification of molecules that are associated with tumor biology, aggressiveness, and metastatic potential is crucial to predict survival and to provide patients with personalized treatment regimens. In this review, we summarize the current literature and focus on newer biomarkers, which are continuously added to the armamentarium of PDAC screening, predictive tools, and prognostic tools.

Preoperative systemic inflammatory biomarkers and postoperative day 1 drain amylase value predict grade C pancreatic fistula after pancreaticoduodenectomy

BACKGROUND

Postoperative day 1-drains amylase (POD1-DA) values are commonly used to predict the risk of pancreatic fistula (PF) after pancreaticoduodenectomy (PD). Perioperative inflammatory biomarkers have been associated to higher risk of complications in different oncological surgeries. Aim of this study was to investigate the utility of the combination of preoperative inflammatory biomarkers (PIBs) with POD1-DA levels in predicting grade C PF.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

From a prospective collected database of 317 consecutive pancreaticoduodenectomies, data regarding POD1-DA levels and PIBs as neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NRL), derived neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (dNRL), platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (PLR) were analyzed in 227 cases. P-values <0.05 were considered statistically significant. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves defined the optimal thresholds for biomarkers and drains amylase values and their accuracy to predict PF. Furthermore, the Positive Predictive Value (PPV) was computed to evaluate the probability to develop PF combining PIBs and drains amylase values. Combination of drains amylase and different PIBs cut-offs were used to evaluate the risk of grade C PF.

RESULTS

A POD1-DA level of 351 U/L significantly predicted PF (sensitivity 82.7%, specificity 76%, AUC 0.836; p < 0.001) with a PPV of 76.5% and a NPV of 82.6%.POD1-DA levels ≥807 U/L significantly predicted grade C PF (sensitivity 72.7%, specificity 64.4%, AUC 0.676; p = 0.004) with a PPV of 17.8% and a NPV of 95.6%.Notably, this last PPV increased from 17.8% to 89% when PIBs, at different cut-offs, were combined with POD1-DA at the value ≥ 807 U/L.

CONCLUSION

PIBs significantly improve POD1-DA ability in predicting grade C PF after PD.

Neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio, not platelet to lymphocyte or lymphocyte to monocyte ratio, is predictive of patient survival after resection of early-stage pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma

Background

NLR, PLR, and LMR have been associated with pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) survival. Prognostic value and optimal cutpoints were evaluated to identify underlying significance in surgical PDAC patients.

Methods

NLR, PLR, and LMR preoperative values were available for 277 PDAC patients who underwent resection between 2007 and 2015. OS, RFS, and survival probability estimates were calculated by univariate, multivariable, and Kaplan-Meier analyses. Continuous and dichotomized ratio analysis determined best-fit cutpoints and assessed ratio components to determine primary drivers.

Results

Elevated NLR and PLR and decreased LMR represented 14%, 50%, and 50% of the cohort, respectively. OS (P = .002) and RFS (P = .003) were significantly decreased in resected PDAC patients with NLR ≥5 compared to those with NLR < 5. Optimal prognostic OS and RFS cutpoints for NLR, PLR, and LMR were 4.8, 192.6, and 1.7, respectively. Lymphocytes alone were the primary prognostic driver of NLR, demonstrating identical survival to NLR.

Conclusions

NLR is a significant predictor of OS and RFS, with lymphocytes alone as its primary driver; we identified optimal cutpoints that may direct future investigation of their prognostic value. This study contributes to the growing evidence of immune system influence on outcomes in early-stage pancreatic cancer.

Preoperative Platelet to Lymphocyte Ratio as a Prognostic Factor for Resectable Pancreatic Cancer: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

INTRODUCTION

Various inflammatory markers have been investigated for a prognostic role in patients with resectable pancreatic cancer. However, the value of preoperative platelet to lymphocyte ratio (PLR) remains controversial. We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis of PLR as a preoperative prognostic factor for resectable pancreatic cancer.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

Systematic literature search was conducted for studies assessing PLR influence as a preoperative prognostic factor in resectable pancreatic cancer patients. Random-effects model was applied for pooling hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals related to overall survival (OS) and disease-free survival (DFS).

RESULTS

Fourteen articles with 2,743 patients were included in the study. According to the analysis, high PLR had no correlation with decreased OS. Due to high heterogeneity among studies, subgroup analysis was performed. Better OS was associated with low PLR in Asian patients, patients with mixed type of operation performed, and patients with preoperative PLR ≤150. Low PLR was associated with significantly better DFS.

CONCLUSIONS

PLR is a predictive factor of better DFS in patients with resectable pancreatic cancer. However, available evidence does not support PLR as a reliable prognostic factor for OS.

A Simple Model Established by Blood Markers Predicting Overall Survival After Radical Resection of Pancreatic Ductal Adenocarcinoma

Background: The prognostic prediction after radical resection of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) has not been well-established. We aimed to establish a prognostic model for PDAC based on a new score system, which included a clinical routine serum marker.

Methods: A total of 438 patients who underwent curative PDAC at the First Affiliated Hospital of Anhui Medical University from January 2007 to January 2014 were included in this study. Univariate and multivariate analyses were used to screen for prognostic risk factors. We constructed the nomogram based on Cox proportional hazard regression models. The construction of the new score models was analyzed by the receiver operator characteristic curve (ROC curve), which were compared with other clinical indexes.

Results: Multivariate analysis showed that TNM stage, CA199, CEA, globulin, neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), and lymphocyte-to-monocyte ratio (LMR) were independent prognostic factors. The new score system had a higher AUC value than other risk factors, and the C-index of the nomogram was highly consistent for evaluating survival of PDAC patients in the validation groups and training group, and the external population also verified the nomogram.

Conclusions: For the patients with PDAC after radical surgery, we developed a precise model to predict the prognosis based on the serum markers and other clinical indicators. For surgeons and patients, this score system can be an effective help.

Independent effect of postoperative neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio on the survival of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma with open distal pancreatosplenectomy and its nomogram-based prediction

Background: The prognosis of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) remains poor. Open distal pancreatosplenectomy (ODPS) is prevalent in the patients of early PDAC located in pancreatic body or tail. However, the models for relapse or survival prediction in those patients are still limited. Postoperative neutrophil-to-lymphocyte rate (poNLR), a novel inflammation-based score, has been formulated to analyze the prognostic significance in PDAC patients with ODPS. Therefore, this study aims to generate a valuable prognostic nomogram for PDAC following ODPS. Methods: We retrospectively enrolled 97 patients of PDAC undergoing ODPS in this study. The Cox proportional hazards regression methodology was used in univariate and multivariate survival analyses to identify significant independent prognostic factors. The prognostic nomograms integrating poNLR into the American Joint Commission on Cancer (AJCC) staging system (8th edition) for predicting overall survival (OS) and relapse free survival (RFS) were established to achieve superior discriminatory abilities. Further, these prognostic nomograms were verified according to concordance index (C-index), calibrations and decision curve analyses (DCA). Results: The optimal cut-off value of poNLR for assessing OS determined by X-tile program was 14.1. Higher poNLR was associated with higher postoperative neutrophil (poNeutrophil), lower postoperative lymphocyte (poLymphocyte), lower preoperative lymphocyte-to-monocyte rate (preLMR) and higher △NLR (postoperative-preoperative NLR). In the univariate and multivariate analysis, poNLR was identified as an independent prognostic indicator for OS and RFS (P=0.044 and 0.028, respectively) and patients with higher poNLR level were probable to have shorter OS and RFS. Compared with the TNM staging system of the AJCC 8th edition, the nomogram comprising of poNLR and AJCC 8th edition exhibited superior predictive accuracy for OS and RFS. Conclusions: poNLR can be a proven, inexpensive and novel survival predictor of PDAC patients with ODPS. One more advanced and accurate predictive model will be achieved to assist in risk stratification via the incorporation of poNLR into nomograms.