Risk Factors for Intrahepatic Recurrence after Resection of Hepatocellular Carcinomas in Patients with Hepatitis B Virus Infection

Predictive models and early postoperative recurrence evaluation for hepatocellular carcinoma based on gadoxetic acid-enhanced MR imaging

BACKGROUND

The prognosis of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is still poor largely due to the high incidence of recurrence. We aimed to develop and validate predictive models of early postoperative recurrence for HCC using clinical and gadoxetic acid-enhanced magnetic resonance (MR) imaging-based findings.

METHODS

In this retrospective case-control study, 209 HCC patients, who underwent gadoxetic acid-enhanced MR imaging before curative-intent resection, were enrolled. Boruta algorithm and backward stepwise selection with Akaike information criterion (AIC) were used for variables selection Random forest, Gradient-Boosted decision tree and logistic regression model analysis were used for model development. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), calibration plots, and decision curve analysis were used to evaluate model's performance.

RESULTS

One random forest model with Boruta algorithm (RF-Boruta) was developed consisting of preoperative serum ALT and AFP levels and six MRI findings, while preoperative serum AST and AFP levels and four MRI findings were included in one logistic regression model with backward stepwise selection method (Logistic-AIC).The two predictive models demonstrated good discrimination performance in both the training set (RF-Boruta: AUC, 0.820; Logistic-AIC: AUC, 0.853), internal validation set (RF-Boruta: AUC, 0.857, Logistic-AIC: AUC, 0.812) and external validation set(RF-Boruta: AUC, 0.805, Logistic-AIC: AUC, 0.789). Besides, in both the internal validation and external validation sets, the RF-Boruta model outperformed Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) stage (p < 0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

The RF-Boruta and Logistic-AIC models with good prediction performance for early postoperative recurrence may lead to optimal and comprehensive treatment approaches, and further improve the prognosis of HCC after resection.

A comparison of the risk factors of intrahepatic recurrence, early recurrencen, and multiple recurrences after resection for single nodular hepatocellular carcinoma

Backgrounds/Aims

Intrahepatic recurrence is one of the most important causes of compromised prognosis after surgical resection of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). This retrospective study was designed to identify and compare the risks of recurrence, early recurrence and multiple recurrences in a single patient population.

Methods

A series of 92 consecutive patients, who received resection for single nodular HCC at our institute from January 2007 to December 2013, were enrolled in this study. The patients were divided into recurrent and non-recurrent groups; the recurrent group was further divided into subgroups by applying two criteria: early and late recurrence (with a cutoff of 18 months), and single and multiple (≥2) recurrence. The potential risk factors were compared using univariate and multivariate analyses. The subgroup analysis was performed to determine the effects of different cut-off values on the analysis.

Results

41 recurrences (44.6%) occurred during a mean follow-up of 42.4 months. The Child-Pugh score, and the portal vein invasion were found to be independent risk factors of recurrence, but differentiation was the only independent risk factor of early recurrence. The serum alpha-fetoprotein, tumor size, tumor necrosis, and hemorrhage were found to be the risk factors of multiple recurrences according to the univariate analysis, but lacked significance according to the multivariate analysis. When the cutoffs for early and multiple recurrences were changed to ≤10 months and >3 nodules, respectively, different risk factors were identified.

Conclusions

Our results implicated that different factors can predict the recurrence, timing, and multiplicity of an HCC recurrence. Further studies should be conducted to prove the complex relationships between tumor burden, invasiveness, and underlying liver cirrhosis for initial tumors, and the timing and multiplicity of recurrent HCC.