Improving obstetric estimation of outcomes of extremely premature neonates: an evolving challenge

Assessment of an Updated Neonatal Research Network Extremely Preterm Birth Outcome Model in the Vermont Oxford Network

IMPORTANCE

The Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development Neonatal Research Network (NRN) extremely preterm birth outcome model is widely used for prognostication by practitioners caring for families expecting extremely preterm birth. The model provides information on mean outcomes from 1998 to 2003 and does not account for substantial variation in outcomes among US hospitals.

OBJECTIVE

To update and validate the NRN extremely preterm birth outcome model for most extremely preterm infants in the United States.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This prognostic study included 3 observational cohorts from January 1, 2006, to December 31, 2016, at 19 US centers in the NRN (derivation cohort) and 637 US centers in Vermont Oxford Network (VON) (validation cohorts). Actively treated infants born at 22 weeks' 0 days' to 25 weeks' 6 days' gestation and weighing 401 to 1000 g, including 4176 in the NRN for 2006 to 2012, 45 179 in VON for 2006 to 2012, and 25 969 in VON for 2013 to 2016, were studied. VON cohorts comprised more than 85% of eligible US births. Data analysis was performed from May 1, 2017, to March 31, 2019.

EXPOSURES

Predictive variables used in the original model, including infant sex, birth weight, plurality, gestational age at birth, and exposure to antenatal corticosteroids.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

The main outcome was death before discharge. Secondary outcomes included neurodevelopmental impairment at 18 to 26 months' corrected age and measures of hospital resource use (days of hospitalization and ventilator use).

RESULTS

Among 4176 actively treated infants in the NRN cohort (48% female; mean [SD] gestational age, 24.2 [0.8] weeks), survival was 63% vs 62% among 3702 infants in the era of the original model (47% female; mean [SD] gestational age, 24.2 [0.8] weeks). In the concurrent (2006-2012) VON cohort, survival was 66% among 45 179 actively treated infants (47% female; mean [SD] gestational age, 24.1 [0.8] weeks) and 70% among 25 969 infants from 2013 to 2016 (48% female; mean [SD] gestational age, 24.1 [0.8] weeks). Model C statistics were 0.74 in the 2006-2012 validation cohort and 0.73 in the 2013-2016 validation cohort. With the use of decision curve analysis to compare the model with a gestational age-only approach to prognostication, the updated model showed a predictive advantage. The birth hospital contributed equally as much to prediction of survival as gestational age (20%) but less than the other factors combined (60%).

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

An updated model using well-known factors to predict survival for extremely preterm infants performed moderately well when applied to large US cohorts. Because survival rates change over time, the model requires periodic updating. The hospital of birth contributed substantially to outcome prediction.

Longitudinal Changes and Interobserver Variability of Systolic Myocardial Deformation Values in a Prospective Cohort of Healthy Fetuses across Gestation and after Delivery

BACKGROUND

Normative data for fetal myocardial deformation values have not been comprehensively described in a longitudinal cohort. The effect of gestational age on these values and on interobserver variability require further investigation.

METHODS

Sixty gravid women were prospectively enrolled before 20 weeks' gestation. The following measures were obtained by two blinded observers at five time points across gestation and also at 4 to 8 weeks' postnatal age: global circumferential strain and strain rate, global longitudinal left ventricular strain and strain rate, global longitudinal right ventricular strain and strain rate, and left and right ventricular myocardial performance indices. Optimal myocardial visualization and frame rate (≥100 frames/sec) were ensured.

RESULTS

For gestational age groups ≥24 weeks, intraclass correlation coefficients between observers were >0.70 for all measures and >0.85 for the majority of measures of myocardial deformation. At 20 to 21 weeks' gestation, intraclass correlation coefficients were 0.35 to 0.52 for longitudinal measures and 0.74 to 0.82 for circumferential measures. Myocardial performance index intraclass correlation coefficients were <0.80 at all time points and <0.70 for most time points. Global longitudinal left ventricular strain and global circumferential strain values remained stable across gestational age groups. Global longitudinal right ventricular strain values remained stable across gestation and increased after birth. Global circumferential strain rate, global longitudinal left ventricular strain rate, and global longitudinal right ventricular strain rate decreased from 20 to 21 weeks' gestation to the remainder of gestation and then remained stable until delivery. Upon delivery, global circumferential strain rate and global longitudinal left ventricular strain rate decreased, and global longitudinal right ventricular strain rate increased.

CONCLUSIONS

Interobserver variability of fetal strain and strain rate measured at ≥24 weeks' gestation was lower in comparison with values obtained at 20 to 21 weeks' gestation and lower in comparison with left ventricular and right ventricular myocardial performance indices using the described protocol. Gestational changes in fetal myocardial deformation values likely reflect changes in preload and/or afterload on the fetal heart.

Ethical dimensions of periviability

The birth of neonates at the limits of viability, or periviability, poses numerous challenges to health care providers and to systems of care, and the care of these pregnancies and neonates is fraught with ethical controversies. This statement summarizes the ethical principles involved in the care of periviable pregnancies and neonates, and provides expert clinical opinion about the numerous challenges posed by this problem around the world. Topics addressed include a summary of the published experience, an ethical framework, translating neonatal outcome data to the obstetric arena, management as a trial of intervention, referral to tertiary centers, neonatal resuscitation, cesarean delivery for fetal indication, and limits on life-sustaining neonatal treatment.