A partial ban on sales to reduce high-risk drinking South of the border: seven years later

Longer-term impacts of trading restrictions on alcohol-related violence: insights from New South Wales, Australia

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

In February 2014, the government of New South Wales (NSW), Australia, introduced new restrictions (known as the 'lockout laws') on the sale of alcohol in licensed premises in two of Sydney's most prominent entertainment districts, Kings Cross (KX) and the central business district (CBD). This study aimed to determine: (i) whether the introduction of the lockout laws was the point at which the time pattern of the assault series in the KX and CBD entertainment precincts changed; (ii) whether the apparent reduction in assault in these precincts persists when we control for common variations in assault across the entire state of NSW; (iii) whether the reduction in assault in the KX and CBD entertainment precincts resulted in a displacement of the assault problem into other areas; and (iv) whether there is a net reduction in assault after taking any spill-over or displacement effects into account.

DESIGN

Structural break analysis was used to determine the date at which the time pattern of assaults changed. Interrupted time series analysis with a rest-of-NSW comparator was used to assess the change in assault.

SETTING, CASES AND MEASUREMENTS

The monthly totals of incidents of non-domestic assaults reported to the NSW Police between January 2009 and March 2019 (n = 123).

FINDINGS

The structural break in assaults occurred in January 2014 rather than in February 2014, when the lockout laws were introduced. The reduction in assault persists even when we control for common influences across NSW as a whole. In particular, from January 2014 onwards, assaults fell immediately by 22% (a downward step) in KX (90% confidence interval [CI] = 15-28) and by 33% in the CBD (90% CI = 19-47). Assaults continued declining in KX (trend-break coefficient = -0.094, 90% CI = -0.192 to 0.005). The reduction in assault in the KX and CBD precincts is associated with a rise in assault in areas surrounding these precincts. The net effect, nonetheless, remains a lower level of assault. In particular, we estimate that the net reduction over the three areas combined was 1670 assaults (i.e. 27 per month).

CONCLUSION

Some of the initial reduction in assault in KX and the CBD of Sydney, Australia, previously attributed to the February 2014 introduction of lockout laws may have been a response to publicity surrounding recent deaths connected with alcohol-related violence.

Drinking motives, cultural orientations, and alcohol use among Hispanic college students at the U.S.-Mexico border

Hispanic college students at the U.S.-Mexico border are at higher risk for alcohol use and negative drinking consequences relative to their counterparts in non-border areas. Hispanic students at the U.S.-Mexico border (N = 219, Mage = 20.14; 71.2% women) completed an online survey. U.S. orientation was negatively associated with alcohol consumption. Enhancement motives predicted alcohol consumption, whereas coping and conformity motives predicted negative drinking-related consequences. Cultural orientations did not moderate the relations between social motives and alcohol use outcomes. Results highlight the need to consider alcohol-related cognition and to better contextualize U.S. and heritage cultural orientations among Hispanics in the U.S.-Mexico areas.

The effect of liquor licensing restrictions on assault: a quasi-experimental study in Sydney, Australia

AIMS

To determine whether restrictions on the availability of alcohol in two inner-city entertainment areas in Sydney, Australia (1) reduced the incidence of assault in those areas, (2) increased the incidence of assault in nearby areas (where the restrictions did not apply), (3) resulted in a net reduction in overall levels of assault (4) and/or whether the reductions in assault were most pronounced during the daily time-periods when liquor trading restrictions were in operation.

DESIGN

Structural time-series modelling was used to estimate and compare trends in assault in areas/times affected by the new restrictions on alcohol availability with trends in assault in areas unaffected by the new restrictions.

SETTING

Sydney, Australia.

PARTICIPANTS/MEASUREMENTS

The primary outcome measure was the police-recorded monthly incidence of non-domestic assault in the 78 months between January 2009 and June 2015.

FINDINGS

Following the reforms, we found reductions in assaults of 45% [beta = -0.599, 95% confidence interval (CI) = -1.107, -0.091] and 22% (beta =0.260, 95% CI = -0.397, -0.123), respectively, in the Kings Cross and Sydney CBD Entertainment Precincts. In the Kings Cross Entertainment Precinct, reductions in assault were observed in all three daily time-periods. In the Sydney CBD Entertainment Precinct reductions in assault were observed only in the second and third daily time-periods. Assaults did not increase in entertainment areas adjacent to or within easy reach of the target areas.

CONCLUSION

Restrictions on the availability of alcohol appear to reduce the incidence of assault.

The effects of liquor licensing restriction on alcohol-related violence in NSW, 2008-13

AIM

To estimate the effect on assault of a series of legislative reforms that restricted the trading hours and trading conditions of licensed premises in New South Wales (NSW), Australia.

METHODS

We examine the effects of the legislative reforms introduced between July 2008 and January 2012 using time series structural models. These models are used to estimate the underlying long-term dynamics of the time series of police recorded domestic and non-domestic assaults occasioning actual bodily harm (ABH) and assaults occasioning grievous bodily harm (GBH) in NSW between January 1996 and December 2013. The effect of the legislative changes is captured by including terms in the models which reflect a smooth step change in the number of assaults.

RESULTS

The reforms introduced between July 2008 and January 2012 were associated with a fall in levels of ABH and GBH assaults. The joint effect of all the interventions on ABH lasted until July 2013, accounting for a reduction of -31.27% over that period [parameter estimate -0.38 with 95% confidence interval (CI) = -0.65, -0.10)]. The same set of interventions had a greater effect on GBH assaults; achieving a -39.70% reduction over a shorter period of time July 2008 and July 2012 (parameter estimate -0.51 with 95% CI = -0.69, -0.33).

CONCLUSION

Legislative reforms introduced in New South Wales, Australia between July 2008 and January 2012 to restrict trading hours and trading conditions of licensed alcohol premises appear to have reduced the number of police-recorded assaults of ABH and GBH by 31.27% and 39.70% respectively.

Alcohol use among Mexican American U.S.-Mexico border residents: differences between those who drink and who do not drink in Mexico

The predominately Hispanic U.S.-Mexico border population is at an elevated risk for drinking and associated problems due to the area's low SES, poor services infrastructure, and drug-related violence. Among Mexican American residents, recent studies suggest this risk is particularly pronounced among younger age groups, and a key characteristic of this elevated risk involves crossing the border to drink in Mexico (where the legal drinking age is 18). However, few studies have compared the drinking behavior of U.S. residents who consume alcohol on the Mexico side of the border with those who do not. We address this gap in the present study. A multistage household probability sample of 1307 Mexican American border residents was interviewed about their drinking and associated problems over the past year. The survey response rate was 67%. Among current drinkers who reported going to Mexico in the past 12 months (N=468), 36.1% reported consuming alcohol in Mexico. Those who drank in Mexico reported significantly more drinks per week (12.8 versus 8.7, p<.05), were more likely to have binged (58.3% versus 35.4%, p<.001), and were more likely to report one or more alcohol problem (35.5% versus 19.5%, p<.01) than those who did not drink in Mexico. Among those who drank in Mexico, men reported significantly more drinks per day while in Mexico than women (6.2 versus 4.0, p<.001). Male gender and lower income were significant predictors of drinking in Mexico. These findings suggest that drinking in Mexico contributes to the heightened risk for drinking and associated problems seen in previous research among Mexican Americans living on the U.S.-Mexico border.

Effects of restricting pub closing times on night-time assaults in an Australian city

AIMS

In March 2008 the New South Wales judiciary restricted pub closing times to 3 a.m., and later 3.30 a.m., in the central business district (CBD) of Newcastle, Australia. We sought to determine whether the restriction reduced the incidence of assault.

DESIGN

Non-equivalent control group design with before and after observations.

SETTING

Newcastle, a city of 530,000 people.

PARTICIPANTS

People apprehended for assault in the CBD and nearby Hamilton, an area with a similar night-time economy but where no restriction was imposed.

MEASUREMENTS

Police-recorded assaults in the CBD before and after the restriction were compared with those in Hamilton. Cases were assaults occurring from 10 p.m.-6 a.m. from January 2001-March 2008, with April 2008-September 2009 as the post-restriction period. We also examined changes in assault incidence by time of night. Negative binomial regression with time, area, time × area interaction terms and terms for secular trend and seasonal effects was used to analyse the data. Autocorrelation was examined using generalized estimating equations.

FINDINGS

In the CBD, recorded assaults fell from 99.0 per quarter before the restriction to 67.7 per quarter afterward [incidence rate ratio (IRR): 0.66, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.55-0.80]. In the same periods in Hamilton, assault rates were 23.4 and 25.5 per quarter, respectively (IRR: 1.02, 95% CI: 0.79-1.31). The relative reduction attributable to the intervention was 37% (IRR = 0.63, 95% CI: 0.47-0.81) and approximately 33 assault incidents were prevented per quarter.

CONCLUSION

This study indicates that a restriction in pub closing times to 3/3.30 a.m. in Newcastle, NSW, produced a large relative reduction in assault incidence of 37% in comparison to a control locality.