A Temporal Perspective on the Interplay of Demography and Selection on Deleterious Variation in Humans

A genetic perspective on the recent demographic history of Ireland and Britain

While subtle yet discrete clusters of genetic identity across Ireland and Britain have been identified, their recent demographic history is unclear. Using genotype data from 6574 individuals with associated regional Irish or British ancestry, we identified genetic communities by applying Leiden community detection. Using haplotype segments segregated by length as proxy for time, we inferred regional Irish and British demographic histories. Using a subset of Irish participants, we provide genealogical context by estimating the enrichment/depletion of surnames within the Irish genetic communities. Through patterns of haplotype sharing, we find evidence of recent population bottlenecks in Orcadian, Manx and Welsh genetic communities. We observed temporal changes in genetic affinities within and between genetic communities in Ireland and Britain. Structure in Ireland is subtler compared to neighbouring British communities, with the Irish groups sharing relatively more short haplotype segments. In addition, we detected varying degrees of genetic isolation in peripheral Irish and British genetic communities across different time periods. Further, we observe a stable migration corridor between north-east Ireland and south-west Scotland while there is a recent migration barrier between south-east and west Ireland. Genealogical analysis of surnames in Ireland reflects history-Anglo-Norman surnames are enriched in the Wexford community while Scottish and Gallowglass surnames were enriched in the Ulster community. Using these new insights into the regional demographic history of Ireland and Britain across different time periods, we hope to understand the driving forces of rare allele frequencies and disease risk association within these populations.

Human deleterious mutation rate slows adaptation and implies high fitness variance

Each new human has an expectedU d = 2 - 10 new deleterious mutations. Using a novel approach to capture complex linkage disequilibria from highU d using genome-wide simulations, we confirm that fitness decline due to the fixation of many slightly deleterious mutations can be compensated by rarer beneficial mutations of larger effect. The evolution of increased genome size and complexity have previously been attributed to a similarly asymmetric pattern of fixations, but we propose that the cause might be highU d rather than the small population size posited as causal by drift barrier theory. High within-population variance in relative fitness is an inevitable consequence of highU d ∼ 2 - 10 combined with inferred human deleterious effect sizes; two individuals will typically differ in fitness by 15-40%. The need to compensate for the deluge of deleterious mutations slows net adaptation (i.e. to the external environment) by ~13%-55%. The rate of beneficial fixations is more sensitive to changes in the mutation rate than the rate of deleterious fixations is. As a surprising consequence of this, an increase (e.g. 10%) in overall mutation rate leads to faster adaptation; this puts to rest dysgenic fears about increasing mutation rates due to rising paternal age.

Mitochondrial DNA Genomes Reveal Relaxed Purifying Selection During Human Population Expansion after the Last Glacial Maximum

Modern humans have experienced explosive population growth in the past thousand years. We hypothesized that recent human populations have inhabited environments with relaxation of selective constraints, possibly due to the more abundant food supply after the Last Glacial Maximum. The ratio of nonsynonymous to synonymous mutations (N/S ratio) is a useful and common statistic for measuring selective constraints. In this study, we reconstructed a high-resolution phylogenetic tree using a total of 26,419 East Eurasian mitochondrial DNA genomes, which were further classified into expansion and nonexpansion groups on the basis of the frequencies of their founder lineages. We observed a much higher N/S ratio in the expansion group, especially for nonsynonymous mutations with moderately deleterious effects, indicating a weaker effect of purifying selection in the expanded clades. However, this observation on N/S ratio was unlikely in computer simulations where all individuals were under the same selective constraints. Thus, we argue that the expanded populations were subjected to weaker selective constraints than the nonexpanded populations were. The mildly deleterious mutations were retained during population expansion, which could have a profound impact on present-day disease patterns.

Scaling the discrete-time Wright-Fisher model to biobank-scale datasets

The discrete-time Wright-Fisher (DTWF) model and its diffusion limit are central to population genetics. These models can describe the forward-in-time evolution of allele frequencies in a population resulting from genetic drift, mutation, and selection. Computing likelihoods under the diffusion process is feasible, but the diffusion approximation breaks down for large samples or in the presence of strong selection. Existing methods for computing likelihoods under the DTWF model do not scale to current exome sequencing sample sizes in the hundreds of thousands. Here, we present a scalable algorithm that approximates the DTWF model with provably bounded error. Our approach relies on two key observations about the DTWF model. The first is that transition probabilities under the model are approximately sparse. The second is that transition distributions for similar starting allele frequencies are extremely close as distributions. Together, these observations enable approximate matrix-vector multiplication in linear (as opposed to the usual quadratic) time. We prove similar properties for Hypergeometric distributions, enabling fast computation of likelihoods for subsamples of the population. We show theoretically and in practice that this approximation is highly accurate and can scale to population sizes in the tens of millions, paving the way for rigorous biobank-scale inference. Finally, we use our results to estimate the impact of larger samples on estimating selection coefficients for loss-of-function variants. We find that increasing sample sizes beyond existing large exome sequencing cohorts will provide essentially no additional information except for genes with the most extreme fitness effects.

Haplotype-based inference of the distribution of fitness effects

Recent genome sequencing studies with large sample sizes in humans have discovered a vast quantity of low-frequency variants, providing an important source of information to analyze how selection is acting on human genetic variation. In order to estimate the strength of natural selection acting on low-frequency variants, we have developed a likelihood-based method that uses the lengths of pairwise identity-by-state between haplotypes carrying low-frequency variants. We show that in some non-equilibrium populations (such as those that have had recent population expansions) it is possible to distinguish between positive or negative selection acting on a set of variants. With our new framework, one can infer a fixed selection intensity acting on a set of variants at a particular frequency, or a distribution of selection coefficients for standing variants and new mutations. We show an application of our method to the UK10K phased haplotype dataset of individuals.

Maintenance of Adaptive Dynamics and No Detectable Load in a Range-Edge Outcrossing Plant Population

During range expansion, edge populations are expected to face increased genetic drift, which in turn can alter and potentially compromise adaptive dynamics, preventing the removal of deleterious mutations and slowing down adaptation. Here, we contrast populations of the European subspecies Arabidopsis lyrata ssp. petraea, which expanded its Northern range after the last glaciation. We document a sharp decline in effective population size in the range-edge population and observe that nonsynonymous variants segregate at higher frequencies. We detect a 4.9% excess of derived nonsynonymous variants per individual in the range-edge population, suggesting an increase of the genomic burden of deleterious mutations. Inference of the fitness effects of mutations and modeling of allele frequencies under the explicit demographic history of each population predicts a depletion of rare deleterious variants in the range-edge population, but an enrichment for fixed ones, consistent with the bottleneck effect. However, the demographic history of the range-edge population predicts a small net decrease in per-individual fitness. Consistent with this prediction, the range-edge population is not impaired in its growth and survival measured in a common garden experiment. We further observe that the allelic diversity at the self-incompatibility locus, which ensures strict outcrossing and evolves under negative frequency-dependent selection, has remained unchanged. Genomic footprints indicative of selective sweeps are broader in the Northern population but not less frequent. We conclude that the outcrossing species A. lyrata ssp. petraea shows a strong resilience to the effect of range expansion.

The Temporal Dynamics of Background Selection in Nonequilibrium Populations

Neutral genetic diversity across the genome is determined by the complex interplay of mutation, demographic history, and natural selection. While the direct action of natural selection is limited to functional loci across the genome, its impact can have effects on nearby neutral loci due to genetic linkage. These effects of selection at linked sites, referred to as genetic hitchhiking and background selection (BGS), are pervasive across natural populations. However, only recently has there been a focus on the joint consequences of demography and selection at linked sites, and some empirical studies have come to apparently contradictory conclusions as to their combined effects. To understand the relationship between demography and selection at linked sites, we conducted an extensive forward simulation study of BGS under a range of demographic models. We found that the relative levels of diversity in BGS and neutral regions vary over time and that the initial dynamics after a population size change are often in the opposite direction of the long-term expected trajectory. Our detailed observations of the temporal dynamics of neutral diversity in the context of selection at linked sites in nonequilibrium populations provide new intuition about why patterns of diversity under BGS vary through time in natural populations and help reconcile previously contradictory observations. Most notably, our results highlight that classical models of BGS are poorly suited for predicting diversity in nonequilibrium populations.

Human demographic history has amplified the effects of background selection across the genome

Natural populations often grow, shrink, and migrate over time. Such demographic processes can affect genome-wide levels of genetic diversity. Additionally, genetic variation in functional regions of the genome can be altered by natural selection, which drives adaptive mutations to higher frequencies or purges deleterious ones. Such selective processes affect not only the sites directly under selection but also nearby neutral variation through genetic linkage via processes referred to as genetic hitchhiking in the context of positive selection and background selection (BGS) in the context of purifying selection. While there is extensive literature examining the consequences of selection at linked sites at demographic equilibrium, less is known about how non-equilibrium demographic processes influence the effects of hitchhiking and BGS. Utilizing a global sample of human whole-genome sequences from the Thousand Genomes Project and extensive simulations, we investigate how non-equilibrium demographic processes magnify and dampen the consequences of selection at linked sites across the human genome. When binning the genome by inferred strength of BGS, we observe that, compared to Africans, non-African populations have experienced larger proportional decreases in neutral genetic diversity in strong BGS regions. We replicate these findings in admixed populations by showing that non-African ancestral components of the genome have also been affected more severely in these regions. We attribute these differences to the strong, sustained/recurrent population bottlenecks that non-Africans experienced as they migrated out of Africa and throughout the globe. Furthermore, we observe a strong correlation between FST and the inferred strength of BGS, suggesting a stronger rate of genetic drift. Forward simulations of human demographic history with a model of BGS support these observations. Our results show that non-equilibrium demography significantly alters the consequences of selection at linked sites and support the need for more work investigating the dynamic process of multiple evolutionary forces operating in concert.

Accelerating Wright-Fisher Forward Simulations on the Graphics Processing Unit

Forward Wright–Fisher simulations are powerful in their ability to model complex demography and selection scenarios, but suffer from slow execution on the Central Processor Unit (CPU), thus limiting their usefulness. However, the single-locus Wright–Fisher forward algorithm is exceedingly parallelizable, with many steps that are so-called “embarrassingly parallel,” consisting of a vast number of individual computations that are all independent of each other and thus capable of being performed concurrently. The rise of modern Graphics Processing Units (GPUs) and programming languages designed to leverage the inherent parallel nature of these processors have allowed researchers to dramatically speed up many programs that have such high arithmetic intensity and intrinsic concurrency. The presented GPU Optimized Wright–Fisher simulation, or “GO Fish” for short, can be used to simulate arbitrary selection and demographic scenarios while running over 250-fold faster than its serial counterpart on the CPU. Even modest GPU hardware can achieve an impressive speedup of over two orders of magnitude. With simulations so accelerated, one can not only do quick parametric bootstrapping of previously estimated parameters, but also use simulated results to calculate the likelihoods and summary statistics of demographic and selection models against real polymorphism data, all without restricting the demographic and selection scenarios that can be modeled or requiring approximations to the single-locus forward algorithm for efficiency. Further, as many of the parallel programming techniques used in this simulation can be applied to other computationally intensive algorithms important in population genetics, GO Fish serves as an exciting template for future research into accelerating computation in evolution. GO Fish is part of the Parallel PopGen Package available at: http://dl42.github.io/ParallelPopGen/.