Assessing the Relationship of Ancient and Modern Populations

Characterizing selection on complex traits through conditional frequency spectra

Natural selection on complex traits is difficult to study in part due to the ascertainment inherent to genome-wide association studies (GWAS). The power to detect a trait-associated variant in GWAS is a function of its frequency and effect size - but for traits under selection, the effect size of a variant determines the strength of selection against it, constraining its frequency. Recognizing the biases inherent to GWAS ascertainment, we propose studying the joint distribution of allele frequencies across populations, conditional on the frequencies in the GWAS cohort. Before considering these conditional frequency spectra, we first characterized the impact of selection and non-equilibrium demography on allele frequency dynamics forwards and backwards in time. We then used these results to understand conditional frequency spectra under realistic human demography. Finally, we investigated empirical conditional frequency spectra for GWAS variants associated with 106 complex traits, finding compelling evidence for either stabilizing or purifying selection. Our results provide insights into polygenic score portability and other properties of variants ascertained with GWAS, highlighting the utility of conditional frequency spectra.

Demographic history and genetic variation of the Armenian population

We introduce a sizable (n = 34) whole-genome dataset on Armenians, a population inhabiting the region in West Asia known as the Armenian highlands. Equipped with this genetic data, we conducted a whole-genome study of Armenians and deciphered their fine-scale population structure and complex demographic history. We demonstrated that the Armenian populations from western, central, and eastern parts of the highlands are relatively homogeneous. The Sasun, a population in the south that had been argued to have received a major genetic contribution from Assyrians, was instead shown to have derived its slightly divergent genetic profile from a bottleneck that occurred in the recent past. We also investigated the debated question on the genetic origin of Armenians and failed to find any significant support for historical suggestions by Herodotus of their Balkan-related ancestry. We checked the degree of continuity of modern Armenians with ancient inhabitants of the eastern Armenian highlands and detected a genetic input into the region from a source linked to Neolithic Levantine Farmers at some point after the Early Bronze Age. Additionally, we cataloged an abundance of new mutations unique to the population, including a missense mutation predicted to cause familial Mediterranean fever, an autoinflammatory disorder highly prevalent in Armenians. Thus, we highlight the importance of further genetic and medical studies of this population.

Conditional frequency spectra as a tool for studying selection on complex traits in biobanks

Natural selection on complex traits is difficult to study in part due to the ascertainment inherent to genome-wide association studies (GWAS). The power to detect a trait-associated variant in GWAS is a function of frequency and effect size - but for traits under selection, the effect size of a variant determines the strength of selection against it, constraining its frequency. To account for GWAS ascertainment, we propose studying the joint distribution of allele frequencies across populations, conditional on the frequencies in the GWAS cohort. Before considering these conditional frequency spectra, we first characterized the impact of selection and non-equilibrium demography on allele frequency dynamics forwards and backwards in time. We then used these results to understand conditional frequency spectra under realistic human demography. Finally, we investigated empirical conditional frequency spectra for GWAS variants associated with 106 complex traits, finding compelling evidence for either stabilizing or purifying selection. Our results provide insight into polygenic score portability and other properties of variants ascertained with GWAS, highlighting the utility of conditional frequency spectra.

Ancient Sheep Genomes Reveal Four Millennia of North European Short-Tailed Sheep in the Baltic Sea Region

Sheep are among the earliest domesticated livestock species, with a wide variety of breeds present today. However, it remains unclear how far back this diversity goes, with formal documentation only dating back a few centuries. North European short-tailed (NEST) breeds are often assumed to be among the oldest domestic sheep populations, even thought to represent relicts of the earliest sheep expansions during the Neolithic period reaching Scandinavia <6,000 years ago. This study sequenced the genomes (up to 11.6X) of five sheep remains from the Baltic islands of Gotland and Åland, dating from the Late Neolithic (∼4,100 cal BP) to historical times (∼1,600 CE). Our findings indicate that these ancient sheep largely possessed the genetic characteristics of modern NEST breeds, suggesting a substantial degree of long-term continuity of this sheep type in the Baltic Sea region. Despite the wide temporal spread, population genetic analyses show high levels of affinity between the ancient genomes and they also exhibit relatively high genetic diversity when compared to modern NEST breeds, implying a loss of diversity in most breeds during the last centuries associated with breed formation and recent bottlenecks. Our results shed light on the development of breeds in Northern Europe specifically as well as the development of genetic diversity in sheep breeds, and their expansion from the domestication center in general.

Ancient genomes reveal insights into ritual life at Chichén Itzá

The ancient city of Chichén Itzá in Yucatán, Mexico, was one of the largest and most influential Maya settlements during the Late and Terminal Classic periods (AD 600-1000) and it remains one of the most intensively studied archaeological sites in Mesoamerica1-4. However, many questions about the social and cultural use of its ceremonial spaces, as well as its population's genetic ties to other Mesoamerican groups, remain unanswered2. Here we present genome-wide data obtained from 64 subadult individuals dating to around AD 500-900 that were found in a subterranean mass burial near the Sacred Cenote (sinkhole) in the ceremonial centre of Chichén Itzá. Genetic analyses showed that all analysed individuals were male and several individuals were closely related, including two pairs of monozygotic twins. Twins feature prominently in Mayan and broader Mesoamerican mythology, where they embody qualities of duality among deities and heroes5, but until now they had not been identified in ancient Mayan mortuary contexts. Genetic comparison to present-day people in the region shows genetic continuity with the ancient inhabitants of Chichén Itzá, except at certain genetic loci related to human immunity, including the human leukocyte antigen complex, suggesting signals of adaptation due to infectious diseases introduced to the region during the colonial period.

Demographic history and genetic structure in pre-Hispanic Central Mexico

Aridoamerica and Mesoamerica are two distinct cultural areas in northern and central Mexico, respectively, that hosted numerous pre-Hispanic civilizations between 2500 BCE and 1521 CE. The division between these regions shifted southward because of severe droughts ~1100 years ago, which allegedly drove a population replacement in central Mexico by Aridoamerican peoples. In this study, we present shotgun genome-wide data from 12 individuals and 27 mitochondrial genomes from eight pre-Hispanic archaeological sites across Mexico, including two at the shifting border of Aridoamerica and Mesoamerica. We find population continuity that spans the climate change episode and a broad preservation of the genetic structure across present-day Mexico for the past 2300 years. Lastly, we identify a contribution to pre-Hispanic populations of northern and central Mexico from two ancient unsampled "ghost" populations.

Ancient genomics reveals tripartite origins of Japanese populations

Prehistoric Japan underwent rapid transformations in the past 3000 years, first from foraging to wet rice farming and then to state formation. A long-standing hypothesis posits that mainland Japanese populations derive dual ancestry from indigenous Jomon hunter-gatherer-fishers and succeeding Yayoi farmers. However, the genomic impact of agricultural migration and subsequent sociocultural changes remains unclear. We report 12 ancient Japanese genomes from pre- and postfarming periods. Our analysis finds that the Jomon maintained a small effective population size of ~1000 over several millennia, with a deep divergence from continental populations dated to 20,000 to 15,000 years ago, a period that saw the insularization of Japan through rising sea levels. Rice cultivation was introduced by people with Northeast Asian ancestry. Unexpectedly, we identify a later influx of East Asian ancestry during the imperial Kofun period. These three ancestral components continue to characterize present-day populations, supporting a tripartite model of Japanese genomic origins.

The origins and spread of domestic horses from the Western Eurasian steppes

Domestication of horses fundamentally transformed long-range mobility and warfare¹. However, modern domesticated breeds do not descend from the earliest domestic horse lineage associated with archaeological evidence of bridling, milking and corralling^2-4 at Botai, Central Asia around 3500 BC³. Other longstanding candidate regions for horse domestication, such as Iberia⁵ and Anatolia⁶, have also recently been challenged. Thus, the genetic, geographic and temporal origins of modern domestic horses have remained unknown. Here we pinpoint the Western Eurasian steppes, especially the lower Volga-Don region, as the homeland of modern domestic horses. Furthermore, we map the population changes accompanying domestication from 273 ancient horse genomes. This reveals that modern domestic horses ultimately replaced almost all other local populations as they expanded rapidly across Eurasia from about 2000 BC, synchronously with equestrian material culture, including Sintashta spoke-wheeled chariots. We find that equestrianism involved strong selection for critical locomotor and behavioural adaptations at the GSDMC and ZFPM1 genes. Our results reject the commonly held association⁷ between horseback riding and the massive expansion of Yamnaya steppe pastoralists into Europe around 3000 BC^8,9 driving the spread of Indo-European languages¹⁰. This contrasts with the scenario in Asia where Indo-Iranian languages, chariots and horses spread together, following the early second millennium BC Sintashta culture^11,12.

Ancient genomes from northern China suggest links between subsistence changes and human migration

Northern China harbored the world’s earliest complex societies based on millet farming, in two major centers in the Yellow (YR) and West Liao (WLR) River basins. Until now, their genetic histories have remained largely unknown. Here we present 55 ancient genomes dating to 7500-1700 BP from the YR, WLR, and Amur River (AR) regions. Contrary to the genetic stability in the AR, the YR and WLR genetic profiles substantially changed over time. The YR populations show a monotonic increase over time in their genetic affinity with present-day southern Chinese and Southeast Asians. In the WLR, intensification of farming in the Late Neolithic is correlated with increased YR affinity while the inclusion of a pastoral economy in the Bronze Age was correlated with increased AR affinity. Our results suggest a link between changes in subsistence strategy and human migration, and fuel the debate about archaeolinguistic signatures of past human migration.

Northern China contains some of the world’s earliest farming societies. Here, authors use 55 ancient genomes to trace the genetic history of human migrations across northern China for the last 7500 years, and document genetic changes mirroring shifts in subsistence strategy.

Inference of natural selection from ancient DNA

Evolutionary processes, including selection, can be indirectly inferred based on patterns of genomic variation among contemporary populations or species. However, this often requires unrealistic assumptions of ancestral demography and selective regimes. Sequencing ancient DNA from temporally spaced samples can inform about past selection processes, as time series data allow direct quantification of population parameters collected before, during, and after genetic changes driven by selection. In this Comment and Opinion, we advocate for the inclusion of temporal sampling and the generation of paleogenomic datasets in evolutionary biology, and highlight some of the recent advances that have yet to be broadly applied by evolutionary biologists. In doing so, we consider the expected signatures of balancing, purifying, and positive selection in time series data, and detail how this can advance our understanding of the chronology and tempo of genomic change driven by selection. However, we also recognize the limitations of such data, which can suffer from postmortem damage, fragmentation, low coverage, and typically low sample size. We therefore highlight the many assumptions and considerations associated with analyzing paleogenomic data and the assumptions associated with analytical methods.

Consensify: A Method for Generating Pseudohaploid Genome Sequences from Palaeogenomic Datasets with Reduced Error Rates

A standard practise in palaeogenome analysis is the conversion of mapped short read data into pseudohaploid sequences, frequently by selecting a single high-quality nucleotide at random from the stack of mapped reads. This controls for biases due to differential sequencing coverage, but it does not control for differential rates and types of sequencing error, which are frequently large and variable in datasets obtained from ancient samples. These errors have the potential to distort phylogenetic and population clustering analyses, and to mislead tests of admixture using D statistics. We introduce Consensify, a method for generating pseudohaploid sequences, which controls for biases resulting from differential sequencing coverage while greatly reducing error rates. The error correction is derived directly from the data itself, without the requirement for additional genomic resources or simplifying assumptions such as contemporaneous sampling. For phylogenetic and population clustering analysis, we find that Consensify is less affected by artefacts than methods based on single read sampling. For D statistics, Consensify is more resistant to false positives and appears to be less affected by biases resulting from different laboratory protocols than other frequently used methods. Although Consensify is developed with palaeogenomic data in mind, it is applicable for any low to medium coverage short read datasets. We predict that Consensify will be a useful tool for future studies of palaeogenomes.

The genetic prehistory of the Andean highlands 7000 years BP though European contact

The peopling of the Andean highlands above 2500 m in elevation was a complex process that included cultural, biological, and genetic adaptations. Here, we present a time series of ancient whole genomes from the Andes of Peru, dating back to 7000 calendar years before the present (BP), and compare them to 42 new genome-wide genetic variation datasets from both highland and lowland populations. We infer three significant features: a split between low- and high-elevation populations that occurred between 9200 and 8200 BP; a population collapse after European contact that is significantly more severe in South American lowlanders than in highland populations; and evidence for positive selection at genetic loci related to starch digestion and plausibly pathogen resistance after European contact. We do not find selective sweep signals related to known components of the human hypoxia response, which may suggest more complex modes of genetic adaptation to high altitude.

Inferring Continuous and Discrete Population Genetic Structure Across Space

A classic problem in population genetics is the characterization of discrete population structure in the presence of continuous patterns of genetic differentiation. Especially when sampling is discontinuous, the use of clustering or assignment methods may incorrectly ascribe differentiation due to continuous processes (e.g., geographic isolation by distance) to discrete processes, such as geographic, ecological, or reproductive barriers between populations. This reflects a shortcoming of current methods for inferring and visualizing population structure when applied to genetic data deriving from geographically distributed populations. Here, we present a statistical framework for the simultaneous inference of continuous and discrete patterns of population structure. The method estimates ancestry proportions for each sample from a set of two-dimensional population layers, and, within each layer, estimates a rate at which relatedness decays with distance. This thereby explicitly addresses the "clines versus clusters" problem in modeling population genetic variation, and remedies some of the overfitting to which nonspatial models are prone. The method produces useful descriptions of structure in genetic relatedness in situations where separated, geographically distributed populations interact, as after a range expansion or secondary contact. We demonstrate the utility of this approach using simulations and by applying it to empirical datasets of poplars and black bears in North America.

Origins and genetic legacies of the Caribbean Taino

The Caribbean was one of the last parts of the Americas to be settled by humans, but how and when the islands were first occupied remains a matter of debate. Ancient DNA can help answering these questions, but the work has been hampered by poor DNA preservation. We report the genome sequence of a 1,000-year-old Lucayan Taino individual recovered from the site of Preacher's Cave in the Bahamas. We sequenced her genome to 12.4-fold coverage and show that she is genetically most closely related to present-day Arawakan speakers from northern South America, suggesting that the ancestors of the Lucayans originated there. Further, we find no evidence for recent inbreeding or isolation in the ancient genome, suggesting that the Lucayans had a relatively large effective population size. Finally, we show that the native American components in some present-day Caribbean genomes are closely related to the ancient Taino, demonstrating an element of continuity between precontact populations and present-day Latino populations in the Caribbean.