Quantifying human intestinal stem cell and crypt dynamics: the implications for cancer screening and prevention

The frequency of dysplastic branching crypts in colorectal polypoid tubular adenomas

Dysplastic crypt branching (DCB) was recently found in ulcerative colitis-associated dysplasia. The aim was to assess the frequency and the branching phenotype of DCB in polypoid colorectal tubular adenomas (TA). A total of 3956 DCB were found in the 139 TA: 98% were in asymmetric branching (DCAB) and the remaining 2% in symmetric branching (DCSB). A linear correlation was found between DCB frequency and the increasing digital size in TA (p < .05). Using a digital ruler, adenomas were divided into small TA (<5 mm) and larger TA (≥5 mm). The difference between the frequency of DCB in small TA (n = 75) vs. larger TA (n = 64), was significant (p < .05). DCB frequency was not influenced by age, gender or TA localization. In the normal colorectal mucosa (≈2 m² ), only occasional CSB is found and no CAB. And yet, multiple DCB (mean 16.7 DCB), mostly DCAB, was found in small TA, occupying <5 mm of the mucosal area. In larger TA, as many as 42.1 DCB (mean), mostly DCAB, occurred in merely 7.8 mm (mean) of the colon mucosa. Thus it is suggested that DCB is a standard histologic element of TA. The natural expansion of the adenomatous tissue in larger TA appears to be follow on from newly produced, mostly DCAB, by DCSB and by the accumulation of their dysplastic offspring's progenies. The findings strongly suggest that DCB is a central microstructure in the histological events unfolding in polypoid colorectal TA.

Mathematical modeling of multiple pathways in colorectal carcinogenesis using dynamical systems with Kronecker structure

Like many other types of cancer, colorectal cancer (CRC) develops through multiple pathways of carcinogenesis. This is also true for colorectal carcinogenesis in Lynch syndrome (LS), the most common inherited CRC syndrome. However, a comprehensive understanding of the distribution of these pathways of carcinogenesis, which allows for tailored clinical treatment and even prevention, is still lacking. We suggest a linear dynamical system modeling the evolution of different pathways of colorectal carcinogenesis based on the involved driver mutations. The model consists of different components accounting for independent and dependent mutational processes. We define the driver gene mutation graphs and combine them using the Cartesian graph product. This leads to matrix components built by the Kronecker sum and product of the adjacency matrices of the gene mutation graphs enabling a thorough mathematical analysis and medical interpretation. Using the Kronecker structure, we developed a mathematical model which we applied exemplarily to the three pathways of colorectal carcinogenesis in LS. Beside a pathogenic germline variant in one of the DNA mismatch repair (MMR) genes, driver mutations in APC, CTNNB1, KRAS and TP53 are considered. We exemplarily incorporate mutational dependencies, such as increased point mutation rates after MMR deficiency, and based on recent experimental data, biallelic somatic CTNNB1 mutations as common drivers of LS-associated CRCs. With the model and parameter choice, we obtained simulation results that are in concordance with clinical observations. These include the evolution of MMR-deficient crypts as early precursors in LS carcinogenesis and the influence of variants in MMR genes thereon. The proportions of MMR-deficient and MMR-proficient APC-inactivated crypts as first measure for the distribution among the pathways in LS-associated colorectal carcinogenesis are compatible with clinical observations. The approach provides a modular framework for modeling multiple pathways of carcinogenesis yielding promising results in concordance with clinical observations in LS CRCs.

Personalizing Gastric Cancer Screening With Predictive Modeling of Disease Progression Biomarkers

Gastric cancer (GC) remains the third most common cause of cancer-related death worldwide. Infection with Helicobacter pylori is responsible for over 70% of GC incidence; colonization induces chronic inflammation, which can facilitate progression to intestinal metaplasia, dysplasia, and GC (Correa pathway). Although H. pylori eradication is a necessary first step in GC prevention, some patients continue to progress to advanced stage disease if substantial tissue damage has occurred or inflammation persists. This progression is often asymptomatic until cancer reaches stage IV, yet efficient, cost-effective screening protocols for patients who present with early stages of the Correa pathway do not exist. Given the high interpatient heterogeneity in progression time through this pathway, such screening protocols must necessarily be personalized. This requires the identification of reliable and longitudinally assessable biomarkers of patient-specific progression. Several gastric stem cell (GSC) markers including CD44, CD133, and Lgr5 are upregulated in GC. Here we show a significant stepwise increase in immunohistochemical staining for these markers in biopsies at different stages of the Correa pathway, suggesting GSC fraction to be a promising candidate biomarker for early detection of malignant transformation. We present a mathematical model capable of both simulating clinically observed increases in GSC fraction in longitudinal biopsy samples of individual patients, and forecasting patient-specific disease progression trajectories based only on characteristics identified from immunohistochemistry at initial presentation. From these forecasts, personalized screening schedules may be identified that would allow early stratification of high-risk patients, and potentially earlier detection of dysplasia or early-stage GC.