Genetic information improves the prediction of major adverse cardiovascular events in the GENEMACOR population

Predictive improvement of adding coronary calcium score and a genetic risk score to a traditional risk model for cardiovascular event prediction

AIMS

Coronary artery calcium score (CACS) and polygenic risk score have been used as novel markers to predict cardiovascular (CV) events of asymptomatic individuals compared with traditional scores. No previous studies have directly compared the additive capacity of these two markers relative to conventional scores. The aim of the study was to evaluate the change in CV risk prediction ability when CACS, genetic risk score (GRS), or both are added to Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation 2 (SCORE2).

METHODS AND RESULTS

In a prospective, observational population-based study, 1002 asymptomatic subjects (mean age 53.1 ± 6.8 years, 73.8% male), free of clinical coronary disease and diabetes, were selected from GENEMACOR-study controls. SCORE2, CACS, and GRS were estimated to evaluate CV events' predictive and discriminative ability through Harrell's C-statistics. Net reclassification improvement (NRI) and integrated discrimination index were used to reclassify the population. Multivariable Cox proportional hazard ratio (HR) analysis assessed the variables independently associated with CV events. C-statistic demonstrated that the discriminative value for CV event occurrence was 0.608 for SCORE2, increasing to 0.749 (P = 0.001) when CACS was added, and improved to 0.802 (P = 0.0008) with GRS, showing a better discriminative capacity for CV events. Continuous NRI reclassified >70% of the population. Cox proportional analysis showed that the highest categories of SCORE2, CACS, and GRS remained in the equation with an HR of 2.9 (P = 0.003), 5.0 (P < 0.0001), and 3.2 (P = 0.003), respectively, when compared with the lowest categories.

CONCLUSION

In our population, CACS added to SCORE2 had better ability than GRS in CV event risk prediction, discrimination, and reclassification. However, adding the three scores can become clinically relevant, especially in intermediate-risk persons.

Impact of genetic information on coronary disease risk in Madeira: The GENEMACOR study

INTRODUCTION

Coronary artery disease (CAD), characterized by an atherogenic process in the coronary arteries, is one of the leading causes of death in Madeira. The GENEMACOR (GENEs in MAdeira and CORonary Disease) study sought to investigate the main risk factors - environmental and genetic - and estimate whether a genetic risk score (GRS) improves CAD prediction, discrimination and reclassification.

METHODS

Traditional risk factors and 33 CAD genetic variants were considered in a case-control study with 3139 individuals (1723 patients and 1416 controls). The multivariate analysis assessed the likelihood of CAD. A multiplicative GRS (mGRS) was created, and two models (with and without mGRS) were prepared. Two areas under receiver operating characteristic curve (area under curve (AUC)) were analyzed and compared to discriminate CAD likelihood. Net reclassification improvement (NRI) and integrated discrimination index (IDI) were used to reclassify the population.

RESULTS

All traditional risk factors were strong and independent predictors of CAD, with smoking being the most significant (OR 3.25; p<0.0001). LPA rs3798220 showed a higher CAD likelihood (odds ratio 1.45; p<0.0001). Individuals in the fourth mGRS quartile had an increased CAD probability of 136% (p<0.0001). A traditional risk factor-based model estimated an AUC of 0.73, rising to 0.75 after mGRS inclusion (p<0.0001), revealing a better fit. Continuous NRI better reclassified 28.1% of the population, and categorical NRI mainly improved the reclassification of the intermediate risk group.

CONCLUSIONS

CAD likelihood was influenced by traditional risk factors and genetic variants. Incorporating GRS into the traditional model improved CAD predictive capacity, discrimination and reclassification. These approaches may provide helpful diagnostic and therapeutic advances, especially in the intermediate risk group.