Estudo dinâmico da mortalidade por tuberculose no Estado de São Paulo, Brasil: uma abordagem bayesiana

Risk factors for early mortality in patients with pulmonary tuberculosis admitted to the emergency room

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

Mortality of patients with pulmonary tuberculosis (TB) admitted to emergency departments is high. This study was aimed at analysing the risk factors associated with early mortality and designing a risk score based on simple parameters.

METHODS

This prospective case-control study enrolled patients admitted to the emergency department of a referral TB hospital. Clinical, radiological, biochemical and microbiological risk factors associated with death were compared among patients dying within one week from admission (cases) and those surviving (controls).

RESULTS

Forty-nine of 250 patients (19.6%) experienced early mortality. Multiple logistic regression analysis showed that oxygen saturation (SaO₂) ≤90%, severe malnutrition, tachypnoea, tachycardia, hypotension, advanced disease at chest radiography, severe anaemia, hyponatremia, hypoproteinemia and hypercapnia were independently and significantly associated with early mortality. A clinical scoring system was further designed to stratify the risk of death by selecting five simple parameters (SpO₂ ≤ 90%, tachypnoea, hypotension, advanced disease at chest radiography and tachycardia). This model predicted early mortality with a positive predictive value of 94.88% and a negative predictive value of 19.90%.

CONCLUSIONS

The scoring system based on simple parameters may help to refer severely ill patients early to a higher level to reduce mortality, improve success rates, minimise the need for pulmonary rehabilitation and prevent post-treatment sequelae.