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Hebbern C, Gosselin P, Chen K, Chen H, Cakmak S, MacDonald M, Chagnon J, Dion P, Martel L, Lavigne E. Future temperature-related excess mortality under climate change and population aging scenarios in Canada. CANADIAN JOURNAL OF PUBLIC HEALTH = REVUE CANADIENNE DE SANTE PUBLIQUE 2023; 114:726-736. [PMID: 37308698 PMCID: PMC10484859 DOI: 10.17269/s41997-023-00782-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/13/2022] [Accepted: 04/27/2023] [Indexed: 06/14/2023]
Abstract
OBJECTIVE Climate change is expected to increase global temperatures. How temperature-related mortality risk will change is not completely understood, and how future demographic changes will affect temperature-related mortality needs to be clarified. We evaluate temperature-related mortality across Canada until 2099, accounting for age groups and scenarios of population growth. METHODS We used daily counts of non-accidental mortality for 2000 to 2015 for all 111 health regions across Canada, incorporating in the study both urban and rural areas. A two-part time series analysis was used to estimate associations between mean daily temperatures and mortality. First, current and future daily mean temperature time series simulations were developed from Coupled Model Inter-Comparison Project 6 (CMIP6) climate model ensembles from past and projected climate change scenarios under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). Next, excess mortality due to heat and cold and the net difference were projected to 2099, also accounting for different regional and population aging scenarios. RESULTS For 2000 to 2015, we identified 3,343,311 non-accidental deaths. On average, a net increase of 17.31% (95% eCI: 13.99, 20.62) in temperature-related excess mortality under a higher greenhouse gas emission scenario is expected for Canada in 2090-2099, which represents a greater burden than a scenario that assumed strong levels of greenhouse gas mitigation policies (net increase of 3.29%; 95% eCI: 1.41, 5.17). The highest net increase was observed among people aged 65 and over, and the largest increases in both net and heat- and cold-related mortality were observed in population scenarios that incorporated the highest rates of aging. CONCLUSION Canada may expect net increases in temperature-related mortality under a higher emissions climate change scenario, compared to one assuming sustainable development. Urgent action is needed to mitigate future climate change impacts.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Pierre Gosselin
- Institut National de La Recherche Scientifique (Centre Eau-Terre-Environnement), Québec, QC, Canada
- Institut National de Santé Publique du Québec, Québec, QC, Canada
| | - Kai Chen
- Department of Environmental Health Sciences, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT, USA
- Yale Center On Climate Change and Health, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT, USA
| | - Hong Chen
- Population Studies Division, Health Canada, Ottawa, ON, Canada
| | - Sabit Cakmak
- Population Studies Division, Health Canada, Ottawa, ON, Canada
| | - Melissa MacDonald
- Meteorological Service of Canada, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Gatineau, QC, Canada
| | | | - Patrice Dion
- Centre for Demography, Statistics Canada, Ottawa, ON, Canada
| | - Laurent Martel
- Centre for Demography, Statistics Canada, Ottawa, ON, Canada
| | - Eric Lavigne
- Population Studies Division, Health Canada, Ottawa, ON, Canada
- School of Epidemiology and Public Health, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, ON, Canada
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Kim YB, McCurdy AP, Lamboglia CG, Hakimi S, Kuzik N, Lee EY, Lindeman C, Sivak A, Spence JC. Ambient air pollution and movement behaviours: A scoping review. Health Place 2021; 72:102676. [PMID: 34700061 DOI: 10.1016/j.healthplace.2021.102676] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/01/2020] [Revised: 08/15/2021] [Accepted: 09/20/2021] [Indexed: 11/19/2022]
Abstract
This scoping review summarizes the literature about how ambient (outdoor) air pollution impacts movement behaviours (i.e., physical activity, sedentary behaviour, and sleep), or beliefs about movement behaviours. Of 6552 potential documents, 58 documents and 218 findings were included in the final synthesis. Most studies were from the United States and China, involved cross-sectional designs, and included mixed age groups. Overall, unfavourable changes/associations (i.e., decreased/lower physical activity, increased/higher sedentary-related behaviour, and decreased/lower sleep duration and quality) or no change/association in movement behaviours in relation to ambient air pollution were identified. Our findings suggest that more attention should be given to understanding the impact of ambient air pollution on movement behaviours in general and in diverse countries and vulnerable populations such as children or older adults.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yeong-Bae Kim
- Faculty of Kinesiology, Sport, and Recreation, University of Alberta, Edmonton, Alberta, T6G 2H9, Canada
| | - Ashley P McCurdy
- Faculty of Kinesiology, Sport, and Recreation, University of Alberta, Edmonton, Alberta, T6G 2H9, Canada
| | - Carminda G Lamboglia
- Faculty of Kinesiology, Sport, and Recreation, University of Alberta, Edmonton, Alberta, T6G 2H9, Canada
| | - Shawn Hakimi
- School of Kinesiology and Health Studies, Queen's University, Kingston, Ontario, K7L 3N6, Canada
| | - Nicholas Kuzik
- Faculty of Kinesiology, Sport, and Recreation, University of Alberta, Edmonton, Alberta, T6G 2H9, Canada
| | - Eun-Young Lee
- School of Kinesiology and Health Studies, Queen's University, Kingston, Ontario, K7L 3N6, Canada
| | - Cliff Lindeman
- Faculty of Kinesiology, Sport, and Recreation, University of Alberta, Edmonton, Alberta, T6G 2H9, Canada
| | - Allison Sivak
- H.T. Coutts Library, University of Alberta, Edmonton, Alberta, T6G 2G5, Canada
| | - John C Spence
- Faculty of Kinesiology, Sport, and Recreation, University of Alberta, Edmonton, Alberta, T6G 2H9, Canada.
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Thabethe NDL, Voyi K, Wichmann J. Association between ambient air pollution and cause-specific mortality in Cape Town, Durban, and Johannesburg, South Africa: any susceptible groups? ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE AND POLLUTION RESEARCH INTERNATIONAL 2021; 28:42868-42876. [PMID: 33825108 PMCID: PMC8354869 DOI: 10.1007/s11356-021-13778-w] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/09/2020] [Accepted: 03/29/2021] [Indexed: 05/06/2023]
Abstract
Studies have confirmed that adverse human health effects that are associated with exposure to air pollution may differ depending on other factors such as age, gender, environmental conditions, and socio-economic factors. This study was conducted to assess the association between ambient air pollution and cause-specific mortality in the three big cities in South Africa and to determine the susceptible groups thereof. Cause-specific mortality data for all ages and PM10, NO2, and SO2 in Cape Town, Durban, and Johannesburg for the period from 1 January 2006 to 31 December 2010 were obtained. Statistical analyses were done to estimate the associations between air pollutants and cause-specific mortality. Susceptibility was therefore investigated in stratified analyses by sex and age (≥60 years) and environmental conditions (heat and cold) followed by models with interaction terms. Our estimates showed independent associations between these air pollutants, environmental conditions, and susceptible groups.
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Affiliation(s)
- Nomsa Duduzile Lina Thabethe
- Department of Environmental Sciences, University of South Africa, 28 Pioneer Street, Florida, 1709, South Africa.
| | - Kuku Voyi
- School of Health Systems and Public Health, Health Sciences Faculty, University of Pretoria, P.O. Box 667, Pretoria, 0001, South Africa
| | - Janine Wichmann
- School of Health Systems and Public Health, Health Sciences Faculty, University of Pretoria, P.O. Box 667, Pretoria, 0001, South Africa
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