Large Losses in Glacier Area and Water Availability by the End of Twenty-First Century under High Emission Scenario, Satluj Basin, Himalaya

Metabolic rift theory and the complexities of water conflict between India and Pakistan: A pathway to effective environmental management

The exacerbation of the historical and geopolitical tensions between India and Pakistan, largely attributed to colonial legacies, is further amplified due to climate change-induced water conflicts. These environmental management issues stemming from the climate crisis are urgent, demanding innovative and collaborative solutions. The primary aim of this article is to elucidate the complexities of the water conflict between India and Pakistan and propose more effective environmental management strategies that will ultimately foster regional peace and stability. The article applies the metabolic rift theory, a sociological approach, to comprehensively explain crisis-led ecological challenges in the Indo-Pak context. By applying this theory, the article reveals that collective environmental management strategies, particularly those aimed at water resource management, can significantly mitigate the impact of climate crisis and the related climate-induced conflicts. The study also proposes a need-based approach to environmental management, stressing the importance of having integrated water resource planning (harmoniously) shared between India and Pakistan. This includes ensuring sustainable wastewater treatment, securing freshwater quality, and guaranteeing an equitable distribution and utilization of water resources between these two nations.

Glacial lake outburst flood risk assessment using remote sensing and hydrodynamic modeling: a case study of Satluj basin, Western Himalayas, India

Glacier-associated hazards are becoming a common and serious challenge to the high mountainous regions of the world. Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) are one of the most serious unanticipated glacier hazards, with the potential to release a huge amount of water and debris in a short span of time, resulting in the loss of lives, property, and severe damage to downstream valleys. The present study used multi-temporal Landsat and Google earth imageries to analyze the spatio-temporal dynamism of the selected glacial lake (moraine-dammed) in the Satluj basin of Western Himalayas. Furthermore, GLOF susceptibility of the lake was assessed using a multi-criteria decision-based method. The results show that the lake area has increased from 0.11 to 0.26 km² over the past 28 years from 1990 to 2018. The susceptibility index value for the lake was calculated as 0.75, which indicates that the lake is highly susceptible to the GLOF. The depth and volume of the lake were estimated to be 16 m and 57 × 10⁵ m³, respectively, using an empirical formula. HEC-RAS, HECGeo-RAS, and Arc-GIS software were utilized in this study to perform unsteady flow analysis and to determine the GLOF impact on the downstream area. The worst-case GLOF scenario (breach width of 75 m) was revealed during an overtopping failure of the moraine dam, resulted in a peak discharge of 4060 m³/s and releasing a total water volume of 57 × 10⁵ m³. The breach hydrograph has been routed to calculate the spatial and temporal distribution of peak flood, inundation depth, velocity, water surface elevation, and flood peak arrival time along the river channel. The analysis further reveals that the routed flood waves reach the nearest settlement, i.e., Rajpur town, situated at a distance of 102 km in the downstream valley of the lake at 6 h after the beginning of the lake breach event with a peak discharge/flood of 1757 m³/s and maximum flow velocity of 1.5 m/s. With the ongoing climate warming and glacier retreat, moraine-dammed lakes are becoming more hazardous and thus increasing the total threat. Therefore, it is mandatory to monitor and assess such lakes at regular intervals of time to lessen the disastrous impacts of GLOFs on the livelihood and infrastructure in the downstream valleys. The findings of this study will aid in the creation of risk management plans, preparatory tactics, and risk reduction techniques for GLOF hazards in the region.

Ice thickness distribution of Himalayan glaciers inferred from DInSAR-based glacier surface velocity

Retrieval of glacier ice thickness is extremely important for monitoring water resources and predicting glacier dynamics and changes. The inter-annual glacier ice thickness observations (more than 5 years) exploit the glacier mass changes. Ice thickness is one of the important parameters to predict the future sea-level rise. Without adequate knowledge and precise information of glacier ice thickness distribution, future sea-level changes cannot be accurately assessed. In this study, we use an existing flow model to estimate the ice thickness of the High Mountain Asia (HMA) glaciers, using remote sensing techniques. The glacier ice velocity is one of the significant parameters in the Laminar flow model to retrieve the ice thickness. The glacier ice velocity is derived by utilizing the Differential SAR Interferometry (DInSAR) technique. The most optimum DInSAR data (ALOS-2/PALSAR-2) is used for estimating the ice velocity of the HMA glaciers. The ice thickness is mainly estimated for five different states in the HMA region, namely Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Sikkim, Bhutan, and Arunachal Pradesh. Most of the states are observed with a mean ice thickness of 100 m. Five benchmark glaciers (Samudra Tapu, Bara Shigri, Chhota Shigri, Sakchum, and Gangotri glaciers) are also selected for validating our results with the existing thickness information. The issues related to velocity-based ice thickness inversion are also emphasized in this study. The high-velocity rate due to the influx of melting water from adjacent glaciers causes an increment in the flow rate. This abnormal velocity derives erroneous ice thickness measurements. This is one of the major problems to be considered in the velocity-based thickness-derived procedures. Finally, the investigation suggests the inclusion of the velocity influencing parameters in the physical-based models for an accurate ice thickness inversion.

Revisiting the 24 year (1994-2018) record of glacier mass budget in the Suru sub-basin, western Himalaya: Overall response and controlling factors

Glacier mass balance time-series measurements have immense importance in comprehending the overall regional hydrology and meteorology of the mountain systems. Such assessments are critical in the Indus River basin (compared to the Ganga and Brahmaputra), which besides having a significant contribution from the glaciers, also exhibits considerable heterogeneity in glacier response. Thus, to quantify this variability in glacier behavior and thereby develop a comprehensive understanding of the past as well as the future evolution of the glaciers, we reconstruct the annual surface mass balance records of 75 glaciers (size >1 km²) in the Suru sub-basin, western Himalaya for the period 1994-2018. We apply a remote sensing-based equilibrium line altitude-mass balance approach, supported by geodetic mass balance estimates (for 18 major glaciers) and limited field measurements. Our findings suggest a persistent negative mass balance of the glaciers (average: -0.69 ± 0.28 m w.e.a^-1, cumulative: -16.56 m w.e), varying from -0.46 ± 0.27 (1997) to -0.79 ± 0.28 (2018) m w.e.a^-1 during the study period. This overall mass loss coincides with an increased temperature (T_avg increased 0.5 °C; T_min increased 0.27 °C; T_max increased 0.06 °C) and reduced precipitation (by 4%) in the valley during 1994-2018, which shows the sensitivity of these glaciers to climate change. Within the Suru sub-basin, smaller, cleaner and high-altitude mountain glaciers of the Ladakh range have experienced greater mass loss (cumulative: -20.88 m w.e) compared to the Greater Himalayan range (cumulative: -13.44 m w.e). We observe latitudinal variability in mass loss in the Western Himalaya, with the highest mass loss rates in the Greater Himalayan Range (>-0.9 m w.e.a^-1) and lowest in the Karakoram Range (<-0.1 m w.e.a^-1), suggesting a transitional response of the Suru sub-basin glaciers (-0.69 m w.e.a^-1). The overall regional picture suggests synchronicity in the mass loss pattern of western Himalayan glaciers, predominantly controlled by the climatic conditions. Meanwhile, the variability in their mass loss rates is attributed to the unique glacier characteristics.