Does tumor size improve the accuracy of prognostic prediction in patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma after surgical resection?

Prognostic analysis and nomogram establishment in patients with early esophageal cancer receiving endoscopic therapy: a population-based study

Background

The growing numbers of early esophageal cancer (EEC) have increased the demand for endoscopic therapy.

Objectives

To clarify the influential factors for the prognosis of patients with EEC receiving endoscopic surgery, and to construct a nomogram to evaluate the prognostic value of endoscopic therapy.

Design

Prognostic analysis study.

Methods

Clinical data of EEC patients who received endoscopic therapy between 2004 and 2015 were collected from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database and used to construct the nomogram. The prognosis was analyzed by R language; the nomogram was constructed by Cox survival analysis; and the accuracy of the nomogram was verified by C index and the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) and calibration curves. X-Tile software was used to stratify the risk of patients.

Results

Our study constructed the nomogram of the prognosis of patients with EEC treated by endoscopic surgery, including 1118 patients and 5 independent prognostic factors of esophageal cancer-specific survival. The C index and the area under the ROC curve (AUC) of the training and verification cohorts were all >0.75. The calibration curve also reflected the good consistency of the model in predicting survival. Significant difference in the risk of patients from different stratifications with the same T staging existed, and the model had a better C index than that of the T staging.

Conclusion

Our study reports potential influential factors affecting the prognosis of EEC patients who received endoscopic therapy and establishes a reliable nomogram to predict the risk and prognosis, which has certain advantages compared with traditional TNM staging system.

Development of a nomogram for predicting pelvic lymph node metastasis in cervical squamous cell carcinoma

OBJECTIVE

To develop and validate a nomogram for predicting pelvic lymph node metastasis (LNM) in cervical squamous cell carcinoma (SCC).

METHODS

This was a retrospective study that included 715 patients with cervical SCC who underwent radical hysterectomy and bilateral pelvic lymphadenectomy between 2009 and 2018. Logistic regression analysis was used to identify independent risk factors for pelvic LNM. Based on these risk factors, a nomogram predicting LNM risk was constructed and internally validated using the bootstrapping resampling method.

RESULTS

The rate of LNM in FIGO (the International Federation of Gynecology & Obstetrics) Stage IA2-IIA2 cervical SCC was 24.2%. In multivariate analysis, FIGO Stage II, moderately differentiated or poorly differentiated histology, abnormally elevated serum SCC-antigen, and triglyceride were identified as independent risk factors for LNM. Tumor size greater than 2 cm and parametrial involvement had borderline significance. Ultimately, the nomogram contained the six variables mentioned above, showing positive calibration and positive discrimination. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curvewas 0.827 and the bootstrap-validated C-index was 0.827. The Youden index of this paper was 0.540.

CONCLUSIONS

We developed and validated a nomogram to predict pelvic LNM in SCC based on clinical data, which can help physicians develop an optimal treatment strategy.

Effect of the Age-Adjusted Charlson Comorbidity Index on the Survival of Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma Patients after Radical Esophagectomy

We aimed to investigate whether the age-adjusted Charlson comorbidity index (ACCI) can predict the postoperative overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) patients. Between 1 July 2015 and 31 July 2021, a retrospective cohort study was conducted among patients with primary ESCC who underwent radical esophagectomy. A total of 352 patients were included, with median age of 63.00 (IQR (interquartile range) 56.00-68.00). The patients were divided into low (n = 300) and high (n = 52) ACCI groups based on the optimal cut-off value of 5 points. Chronic pulmonary disease (38.4%) was the most common comorbidity. The results of the multivariate Cox regression showed that the ACCI (HR = 1.63, 95%CI: 1.04-2.56), tumor size (HR = 1.67, 95%CI: 1.05-2.66), pTNM (II vs. I, HR = 4.74, 95%CI: 1.82-12.32; III vs. I, HR = 6.08, 95%CI: 2.37-15.60), and postoperative chemotherapy (HR = 0.60, 95%CI: 0.40-0.91) were significantly associated with the OS. Furthermore, the ACCI, tumor size, pTNM, and postoperative chemotherapy were also significantly associated with the CSS. Interactions were identified between the ACCI and postoperative chemotherapy, pTNM stage, and tumor size in relation to the OS and CSS. In conclusion, the ACCI may be an independent prognostic factor affecting the long-term prognosis of patients after radical esophagectomy.

Preoperative Clinical Characteristics Predict Recurrent Laryngeal Nerve Lymph Node Metastasis and Overall Survival in Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma: A Retrospective Study With External Validation

Background

Recurrent laryngeal nerve (RLN) lymph node metastasis (LNM) is not rare in patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC). We aimed to develop and externally validate a preoperative nomogram using clinical characteristics to predict RLN LNM in patients with ESCC and evaluate its prognostic value.

Methods

A total of 430 patients with ESCC who underwent esophagectomy with lymphadenectomy of RLN LNs at two centers between May 2015 and June 2019 were reviewed and divided into training (center 1, n = 283) and external validation cohorts (center 2, n = 147). Independent risk factors for RLN LNM were determined by multivariate logistic regression, and a nomogram was developed. The performance of the nomogram was assessed in terms of discrimination, calibration, clinical usefulness, and prognostic value. The nomogram was internally validated by the bootstrap method and externally validated by the external validation cohort.

Results

Multivariate analysis indicated that clinical T stage (P <0.001), endoscopic tumor length (P = 0.003), bioptic tumor differentiation (P = 0.004), and preoperative carcinoembryonic antigen level (P = 0.001) were significantly associated with RLN LNM. The nomogram had good discrimination with the area under the curve of 0.770 and 0.832 after internal and external validations. The calibration curves and decision curve analysis confirmed the good calibration and clinical usefulness of this model. High-risk of RLN LNM predicted by the nomogram was associated with worse overall survival in the external validation cohort (P <0.001).

Conclusion

A nomogram developed by preoperative clinical characteristics demonstrated a good performance to predict RLN LNM and prognosis for patients with ESCC.

A nomogram to predict lymph node metastasis risk for early esophageal squamous cell carcinoma

Background

A nomogram was developed to predict lymph node metastasis (LNM) for patients with early-stage esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC).

Methods

We used the clinical data of ESCC patients with pathological T1 stage disease who underwent surgery from January 2011 to June 2018 to develop a nomogram model. Multivariable logistic regression was used to confirm the risk factors for variable selection. The risk of LNM was stratified based on the nomogram model. The nomogram was validated by an independent cohort which included early ESCC patients underwent esophagectomy between July 2018 and December 2019.

Results

Of the 223 patients, 36 (16.1%) patients had LNM. The following three variables were confirmed as LNM risk factors and were included in the nomogram model: tumor differentiation (odds ratio [OR] = 3.776, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.515–9.360, p = 0.004), depth of tumor invasion (OR = 3.124, 95% CI 1.146–8.511, p = 0.026), and tumor size (OR = 2.420, 95% CI 1.070–5.473, p = 0.034). The C-index was 0.810 (95% CI 0.742–0.895) in the derivation cohort (223 patients) and 0.830 (95% CI 0.763–0.902) in the validation cohort (80 patients).

Conclusions

A validated nomogram can predict the risk of LNM via risk stratification. It could be used to assist in the decision-making process to determine which patients should undergo esophagectomy and for which patients with a low risk of LNM, curative endoscopic resection would be sufficient.

Prognostic Significance of the Combination of Fibrinogen and Tumor Marker Index in Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma Patients

Background

The current study was aimed at comparing the prognostic value of the combination of plasma fibrinogen and tumor marker index (TMI) [F-TMI] system with TMI alone in patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) after surgical resection.

Methods

A total of 317 patients with ESCC who underwent surgical resection were retrospectively analyzed. The TMI was calculated as the square root of (CYFRA 21–1 concentration/3.3 µg/L) × (SCC concentration/1.5 µg/L). The patients were divided into F-TMI scores according to the following criteria: score 2, both elevated fibrinogen and high TMI; score 1, either elevated fibrinogen or high TMI; and score 0, neither abnormality. Univariate and multivariate survival analyses were performed to evaluate the prognostic value of F-TMI or TMI alone.

Results

The five-year overall survival rate of patients with high TMI was significantly lower than that of patients with low TMI (30.8% vs 50.4%, p <0.001). There was a significant correlation between the F-TMI score with age, tumor size, NLR, PLR, pT status, and pN status. The five-year overall survival rates for patients with F-TMI scores of 2, 1, and 0 were 27.6%, 38.7%, and 63.3%. Multivariate analysis revealed that the F-TMI score (HR 1.297; 95% CI 1.046–1.609, p = 0.018) was an independent prognostic factor. The F-TMI’s prediction ability was larger than that of fibrinogen, TMI, and the conventional TNM stage.

Conclusion

F-TMI was an independent prognostic factor for patients with ESCC and a more useful prognostic indicator than either of the parameters alone.

Clinical nomogram for lymph node metastasis in pathological T1 esophageal squamous cell carcinoma: a multicenter retrospective study

BACKGROUND

Endoscopic resection is increasingly used to treat pathological T1 (pT1) esophageal cancer (EC) patients. However, the procedures are limited by lymph node metastasis (LNM) and remain controversial. We aimed to construct a nomogram to predict the risk of LNM in patients with pT1 esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC).

METHODS

A total of 243 patients with pT1 ESCC who underwent esophagectomy and lymph node dissection at two different institutes between February 2013 and June 2019 were analyzed retrospectively. Patients were categorized into the negative group and the positive group according to whether there was LNM. Risk factors for LNM were evaluated by univariate and multivariate analyses. The nomogram was used to estimate the individual risk of LNM.

RESULTS

Forty-six (18.9%) of the 243 patients with pT1 ESCC exhibited LNM. The LNM rate in patients with stage T1a disease was 5.7% (5/88), and the rate in patients with stage T1b disease was 26.5% (41/155). Multivariable logistic regression analysis showed that tumor differentiation [odds ratio (OR) =1.942, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.067-3.536, P=0.030], the T1 sub-stage (OR =4.750, 95% CI: 1.658-13.611, P=0.004), the preoperative alanine aminotransferase/aspartate aminotransferase ratio (LSR) (OR =5.371, 95% CI: 1.676-17.210, P=0.005), and the high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) level (OR =5.894, 95% CI: 1.917-18.124, P=0.002) were independent risk factors for LNM. The nomogram had relatively high accuracy, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.803 (95% CI: 0.732-0.873). The calibration curve showed that the predicted probability of LNM was in good agreement with the actual probability.

CONCLUSIONS

Clinicopathological and hematological parameters of tumor differentiation, the T1 sub-stage, the preoperative LSR, and the HDL-C level may predict the risk of LNM in T1 ESCC. The risk of LNM can be predicted by the nomogram.

Clinical significance and prognosis of supraclavicular lymph node metastasis in patients with thoracic esophageal cancer

Background

Although most studies proved that thoracic esophageal cancer surgery with supraclavicular lymph nodes (SCLNs) metastasis could benefit, less than 30% of the 5-year survival rate remained controversy on its surgical treatment. In this study, we aimed to analyze the prognosis of SCLNs on the different segments of thoracic esophageal cancer, which will supply a reference for the treatment of this disease.

Methods

Retrospectively collected the clinical data of 163 patients with thoracic esophageal squamous cancer (ESCC) and compared the effects of SCLNs on prognosis in different segments.

Results

Patients with SCLNs metastasis had a worse prognosis than the negative group (P<0.001). In the upper thoracic group, there was no significant difference in OS between SCLNs positive group and negative group (P=0.077); however, in the middle and lower thoracic group, SCLNs positive group had a worse prognosis than the negative group (P<0.001) and lymph nodes positive in other sites (except for SCLNs) (P=0.039). Multivariate analysis found that SCLNs metastasis was an independent risk factor affecting the prognosis of ESCC in the middle and lower thoracic segments (P=0.007).

Conclusions

For patients with upper thoracic ESCC, SCLNs appear to be regional nodes. For the middle and lower thoracic ESCC, SCLNs should be defined as distant metastasis, and neoadjuvant therapy first may be an available therapy.

The long-term impact of tumor burden in pT3N0M0 esophageal squamous cell carcinoma: A propensity score-matched analysis

The purpose of this study was to assess the impact of tumor burden on the survival of patients with pathologic T3N0M0 (pT3N0M0) esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC).A total of 84 patients with pathologic T3N0M0 ESCC treated with radical esophagectomy and 3-field lymphadenectomy (3-FL) from January 2008 to December 2009 in our center were analyzed. Receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis was performed to calculate the optimal cutoff value. The Kaplan-Meier method and log-rank test were used to assess the overall survival (OS) differences between groups. A regression model was applied to identify prognostic factors for OS. Propensity score matching (PSM) was performed to adjust for the imbalance and indication biases in the 2 groups.The median follow-up time was 62 months (range, 1-84 months), and the 5-year OS rate was 62% (95% confidence interval, 52.2-71.8%). According to the ROC curve analysis, the optimal cutoff values for the maximal esophageal wall thickness, tumor length, and tumor volume were 1.3 cm, 5.9 cm, and 18.6 cc, respectively. Univariate analysis revealed that maximal esophageal wall thickness >1.3 cm (P = .014), tumor volume >18.6 cc (P < .001), and vascular invasion (P < .001) were significantly associated with OS. The multivariate Cox regression model identified tumor volume and vascular invasion as factors affecting OS. After propensity matching, patients with a tumor volume ≤18.6 cc had a better OS than those with a tumor volume >18.6 cc (5-year OS, 85% vs 50%, P = .008).Tumor volume may serve as a good prognostic factor for patients with pT3N0M0 ESCC treated with radical esophagectomy and 3-FL. Larger-scale studies are warranted to validate these findings.

Exploratory radiomic features from integrated 18F-fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography/magnetic resonance imaging are associated with contemporaneous metastases in oesophageal/gastroesophageal cancer

PURPOSE

The purpose of this study was to determine if 18F-fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography/magnetic resonance imaging (18F-FDG PET/MRI) features are associated with contemporaneous metastases in patients with oesophageal/gastroesophageal cancer.

METHODS

Following IRB approval and informed consent, patients underwent a staging PET/MRI following 18F-FDG injection (326 ± 28 MBq) and 156 ± 23 min uptake time. First-order histogram and second-order grey level co-occurrence matrix features were computed for PET standardized uptake value (SUV) and MRI T1-W, T2-W, diffusion weighted (DWI) and apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) images for the whole tumour volume. K-means clustering assessed the correlation of feature-pairs with metastases. Multivariate analysis of variance (MANOVA) was performed to assess the statistical separability of the groups identified by feature-pairs. Sensitivity (SN), specificity (SP), positive predictive value (PPV), negative predictive value (NPV), and accuracy (ACC) were calculated for these features and compared with SUVmax, ADCmean and maximum diameter alone for predicting contemporaneous metastases.

RESULTS

Twenty patients (18 males, 2 female; median 67 years, range 52-86) comprised the final study cohort; ten patients had metastases. Lower second-order SUV entropy combined with higher second-order ADC entropy were the best feature-pair for discriminating metastatic patients, MANOVA p value <0.001 (SN = 80%, SP = 80%, PPV = 80%, NPV = 80%, ACC = 80%). SUVmax (SN = 30%, SP = 80%, PPV = 60%, NPV = 53%, ACC = 55%), ADCmean (SN = 20%, SP = 70%, PPV = 40%, NPV = 47%, ACC = 45%) and tumour maximum diameter (SN = 10%, SP = 90%, PPV = 50%, NPV = 50%, ACC = 50%) had poorer sensitivity and accuracy.

CONCLUSION

High ADC entropy combined with low SUV entropy is associated with a higher prevalence of metastases and a promising initial signature for future study.

The clinical impact of supraclavicular lymph node metastasis in patients with locally advanced esophageal squamous cell carcinoma receiving curative concurrent chemoradiotherapy

Background

To evaluate the clinical significance of supraclavicular lymph node (SCLN) in patients with locally advanced esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) receiving curative concurrent chemoradiotherapy (CCRT).

Materials and methods

We retrospectively analyzed all 369 locally advanced ESCC patients treated with CCRT between 2000 and 2015, including 70 patients with SCLN metastasis and 299 patients without SCLN metastasis.

Results

For these locally advanced ESCC patients treated with curative CCRT, N0-2 were significantly associated with superior progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) in univariate and multivariable analyses. However, there were no significant differences in PFS and OS between the SCLN metastasis and non-SCLN metastasis groups; a subgroup analysis also revealed there was no significant differences in PFS and OS between patients with and without SCLN metastasis either in the N0-2 or in the N3 subgroup analysis.

Conclusions

Our study suggests that SCLN metastasis is not a prognostic factor in locally advanced ESCC patients receiving curative CCRT, and that SCLNs should be considered to be regional LNs and treated with curative intent.

Proposed modifications of supraclavicular lymph node metastasis in the esophageal squamous cell carcinoma staging system for improved survival stratification

The present study aims to investigate the clinical implication of supraclavicular lymph nodes (SCLNs) in thoracic esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC). A total of 1156 ESCC patients who underwent three-field lymphadenectomy with node metastasis were analyzed retrospectively. SCLNs were defined as regional nodes in the current system or as distant nodes in the modified system. Survival was analyzed using the Kaplan-Meier method, and values were compared using the log-rank test. Multivariate analysis was performed using the Cox proportional hazard model. The Akaike information criterion (AIC) and the concordance index (c-index) were applied to compare the two prognostic systems. Among 1156 patients, 183 (15.8%) patients were diagnosed with SCLN metastasis. Higher rate of SCLN metastasis was associated with upper tumor location, metastasis involving seven or more nodes, and positive recurrent laryngeal nerve node status. The current staging system was unable to stratify overall survival well in patients with N2, N3, and M1 status using a univariate analysis. In both the current staging system and the modified version, age, gender, pathological T status, and nodal status were independent prognostic factors in a multivariate analysis. The AIC value for the modified version was smaller than that for the current staging system; the c-index value for the modified version was larger than that for the current staging system. Based on the data from our single center, SCLNs should be reclassified as regional lymph nodes in thoracic ESCC for better stratification of overall survival.

The prevalence of lymph node metastasis for pathological T1 esophageal cancer: a retrospective study of 143 cases

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the prevalence, pattern and risk factors of lymph node metastasis (LNM) for pathological T1 (pT1) esophageal cancer (EC).

METHODS

The clinical data of 143 cases of pT1 patients who underwent esophagectomy and lymph node dissection during January 2011 and July 2016 were reviewed, including 120 male patients and 23 female patients with a median age of 60 years. The pattern of LNM was analyzed and the risk factors related to LNM were assessed by logistic regression analysis. The nomogram model was used to estimate the individual risk of lymph node metastasis.

RESULTS

Of 143 patients with T1 tumors, 25 patients had LNM, and the LNM rate was 17.5%. The LNM rate was 8.0% for T1a tumors, and 22.5% for T1b tumors. The logistic regression analysis showed that the depth of tumor infiltration (P < 0.05), tumor size (P < 0.01), tumor location (P < 0.05), and tumor differentiation (P < 0.01) were independent risk factors related to LNM for T1 EC. These four parameters allowed the compilation of a nomogram to estimate the individual risk of LNM. Tumor differentiation (P < 0.05) was an independent risk factor related to LNM for T1a tumors, and tumor size (P < 0.05) and tumor location (P < 0.05) were independent risk factors related to LNM for T1b tumors. Of 25 patients with LNM, one patient had cervical LNM, 15 patients with thoracic LNM, and 17 patients with abdominal LNM. The relatively highest LNM sites were laryngeal recurrent nerve (n = 8), the left gastric artery (n = 8), right and left cardiac (n = 6) and thoracic paraesophageal (n = 5).

CONCLUSIONS

T1 EC has a relatively high LNM rate, and the depth of tumor infiltration, tumor size, tumor location and tumor differentiation are correlated with LNM. The LNM risk and extent must be considered comprehensively in decision-making of a better surgical treatment and lymph node dissection strategy.