Respective impact of climate and fisheries on the growth of an albatross population

Breeding transients in capture-recapture modeling and their consequences for local population dynamics

Standard procedures for capture-mark-recapture modelling (CMR) for the study of animal demography include running goodness-of-fit tests on a general starting model. A frequent reason for poor model fit is heterogeneity in local survival among individuals captured for the first time and those already captured or seen on previous occasions. This deviation is technically termed a transience effect. In specific cases, simple, uni-state CMR modeling showing transients may allow researchers to assess the role of these transients on population dynamics. Transient individuals nearly always have a lower local survival probability, which may appear for a number of reasons. In most cases, transients arise due to permanent dispersal, higher mortality, or a combination of both. In the case of higher mortality, transients may be symptomatic of a cost of first reproduction. A few studies working at large spatial scales actually show that transients more often correspond to survival costs of first reproduction rather than to permanent dispersal, bolstering the interpretation of transience as a measure of costs of reproduction, since initial detections are often associated with first breeding attempts. Regardless of their cause, the loss of transients from a local population should lower population growth rate. We review almost 1000 papers using CMR modeling and find that almost 40% of studies fitting the searching criteria (N = 115) detected transients. Nevertheless, few researchers have considered the ecological or evolutionary meaning of the transient phenomenon. Only three studies from the reviewed papers considered transients to be a cost of first reproduction. We also analyze a long-term individual monitoring dataset (1988-2012) on a long-lived bird to quantify transients, and we use a life table response experiment (LTRE) to measure the consequences of transients at a population level. As expected, population growth rate decreased when the environment became harsher while the proportion of transients increased. LTRE analysis showed that population growth can be substantially affected by changes in traits that are variable under environmental stochasticity and deterministic perturbations, such as recruitment, fecundity of experienced individuals, and transient probabilities. This occurred even though sensitivities and elasticities of these parameters were much lower than those for adult survival. The proportion of transients also increased with the strength of density-dependence. These results have implications for ecological and evolutionary studies and may stimulate other researchers to explore the ecological processes behind the occurrence of transients in capture-recapture studies. In population models, the inclusion of a specific state for transients may help to make more reliable predictions for endangered and harvested species.

Additive effects of climate and fisheries drive ongoing declines in multiple albatross species

Environmental and anthropogenic factors often drive population declines in top predators, but how their influences may combine remains unclear. Albatrosses are particularly threatened. They breed in fast-changing environments, and their extensive foraging ranges expose them to incidental mortality (bycatch) in multiple fisheries. The albatross community at South Georgia includes globally important populations of three species that have declined by 40-60% over the last 35 years. We used three steps to deeply understand the drivers of such dramatic changes: (i) describe fundamental demographic rates using multievent models, (ii) determine demographic drivers of population growth using matrix models, and (iii) identify environmental and anthropogenic drivers using ANOVAs. Each species was affected by different processes and threats in their foraging areas during the breeding and nonbreeding seasons. There was evidence for two kinds of combined environmental and anthropogenic effects. The first was sequential; in wandering and black-browed albatrosses, high levels of bycatch have reduced juvenile and adult survival, then increased temperature, reduced sea-ice cover, and stronger winds are affecting the population recovery potential. The second was additive; in gray-headed albatrosses, not only did bycatch impact adult survival but also this impact was exacerbated by lower food availability in years following El Niño events. This emphasizes the need for much improved implementation of mitigation measures in fisheries and better enforcement of compliance. We hope our results not only help focus future management actions for these populations but also demonstrate the power of the modelling approach for assessing impacts of environmental and anthropogenic drivers in wild animal populations.

Effect of extreme sea surface temperature events on the demography of an age-structured albatross population

Climate changes include concurrent changes in environmental mean, variance and extremes, and it is challenging to understand their respective impact on wild populations, especially when contrasted age-dependent responses to climate occur. We assessed how changes in mean and standard deviation of sea surface temperature (SST), frequency and magnitude of warm SST extreme climatic events (ECE) influenced the stochastic population growth rate log(λs) and age structure of a black-browed albatross population. For changes in SST around historical levels observed since 1982, changes in standard deviation had a larger (threefold) and negative impact on log(λs) compared to changes in mean. By contrast, the mean had a positive impact on log(λs). The historical SST mean was lower than the optimal SST value for which log(λs) was maximized. Thus, a larger environmental mean increased the occurrence of SST close to this optimum that buffered the negative effect of ECE. This 'climate safety margin' (i.e. difference between optimal and historical climatic conditions) and the specific shape of the population growth rate response to climate for a species determine how ECE affect the population. For a wider range in SST, both the mean and standard deviation had negative impact on log(λs), with changes in the mean having a greater effect than the standard deviation. Furthermore, around SST historical levels increases in either mean or standard deviation of the SST distribution led to a younger population, with potentially important conservation implications for black-browed albatrosses.This article is part of the themed issue 'Behavioural, ecological and evolutionary responses to extreme climatic events'.

Contrasting effects of climate and population density over time and life stages in a long-lived seabird

Although population responses to environmental variability have been extensively studied for many organisms, few studies have considered early-life stages owing to the inherent difficulties in tracking the fate of young individuals. However, young individuals are expected to be more sensitive to environmental stochasticity owing to their inexperience and lower competitive abilities. Thus, they are keys to understand demographic responses of an age-structured population to environmental variability.In this study, we used capture-recapture modelling, based on a 49 year-long individual-based longitudinal monitoring dataset, to investigate climatic and population density effects on immature demographic parameters in a long-lived seabird, the wandering albatross.We provide evidence that climate and population size affected both survival and recruitment age of young individuals although in different ways according to the trait. We found that early-life survival was mainly affected by population density, whereas recruitment age variation appeared to be better explained by climatic conditions, with a surprising long-term effect of climate. While population size explained 60% of the variation in juvenile survival, the average Southern Annular Mode over the five previous years explained 52% of variation in recruitment age.In addition, although early-life survival was consistently negatively affected by population size, the relationship between recruitment age and population size shifted from negative to positive over time from the 1970s to 2000s, showing that density dependence mechanisms can temporarily disappear.Finally, we found that similar climatic conditions may affect individual performances in opposite ways according to the life stage of individuals. This result underlines the critical need to assess age-specific functional responses to environmental variability to allow accurate demographic predictions. By revealing the poorly known demographic process of younger age classes, the results of this study improve our understanding of population dynamics of long-lived marine species. A lay summary is available for this article.

Influences on recovery of seabirds on islands where invasive predators have been eradicated, with a focus on Procellariiformes

Protecting seabirds is a global conservation priority given that 29% of seabird species are threatened with extinction. One of the most acute threats to seabirds is the presence of introduced predators, which depredate seabirds at all life stages, from eggs to adults. Consequently, eradication of invasive predators has been identified as an effective and commonly used approach to seabird conservation. Seabird recovery following the eradication of predators is influenced by complex and interacting environmental and demographic factors, and there are gaps in our understanding of species-specific responses. We reflect on the recovery of seabirds on islands cleared of predators, drawing on the equilibrium theory of island biogeography, and synthesize key influences on recovery reported in the literature. We present a regionally specific case study on the recovery of seabird colonies (n = 98) in the Hauraki Gulf, New Zealand, which is a hotspot of seabird diversity (27 species), with a long history of eradications of invasive predators. We found that on islands cleared of predators seabirds recover over time, and such islands have more diverse seabird assemblages than islands that never had predators. Recovery appears to be influenced by a suite of site- and species-specific factors. Managers may assume that given enough time following eradication of predators, seabirds will recolonize an island. Although time is a factor, proximity to source populations and human activities has a significant effect on recolonization by seabirds, as do demographic traits, colonizing ability and habitat suitability. Therefore, integrating expected site and species-specific recovery responses in the planning of eradications should help guide post-eradication management actions.

Effects of Climate Change and Fisheries Bycatch on Shy Albatross (Thalassarche cauta) in Southern Australia

The impacts of climate change on marine species are often compounded by other stressors that make direct attribution and prediction difficult. Shy albatrosses (Thalassarche cauta) breeding on Albatross Island, Tasmania, show an unusually restricted foraging range, allowing easier discrimination between the influence of non-climate stressors (fisheries bycatch) and environmental variation. Local environmental conditions (rainfall, air temperature, and sea-surface height, an indicator of upwelling) during the vulnerable chick-rearing stage, have been correlated with breeding success of shy albatrosses. We use an age-, stage- and sex-structured population model to explore potential relationships between local environmental factors and albatross breeding success while accounting for fisheries bycatch by trawl and longline fisheries. The model uses time-series of observed breeding population counts, breeding success, adult and juvenile survival rates and a bycatch mortality observation for trawl fishing to estimate fisheries catchability, environmental influence, natural mortality rate, density dependence, and productivity. Observed at-sea distributions for adult and juvenile birds were coupled with reported fishing effort to estimate vulnerability to incidental bycatch. The inclusion of rainfall, temperature and sea-surface height as explanatory variables for annual chick mortality rate was statistically significant. Global climate models predict little change in future local average rainfall, however, increases are forecast in both temperatures and upwelling, which are predicted to have detrimental and beneficial effects, respectively, on breeding success. The model shows that mitigation of at least 50% of present bycatch is required to offset losses due to future temperature changes, even if upwelling increases substantially. Our results highlight the benefits of using an integrated modeling approach, which uses available demographic as well as environmental data within a single estimation framework, to provide future predictions. Such predictions inform the development of management options in the face of climate change.

Survival and local recruitment are driven by environmental carry-over effects from the wintering area in a migratory seabird

We estimated annual apparent survival rates, as well as local recruitment rates in different age groups and for different breeding status in the common tern Sterna hirundo using mark-recapture analysis on a long-term individual-based dataset from a breeding colony in Germany. Strong inter-annual variability in survival rates became apparent, especially in prospectors. Local recruitment also varied strongly between years and age groups. To explain these fluctuations, we linked survival and recruitment estimates to several environmental covariates expected to be limiting during the wintering period and migration, including the global climate indices of North Atlantic Oscillation and Southern Oscillation, fish abundance indices, and marine primary productivity in the West African wintering area. Contrary to expectations, global indices did not seem to be linked strongly to vital rates. Results showed that primary productivity had the strongest effect on annual survival, especially in young and inexperienced individuals. Primary productivity in the wintering area was also strongly associated with the probability of recruitment in the following breeding season, indicating that conditions during winter can have carry-over effects on the life cycle of individuals.

How life history influences population dynamics in fluctuating environments

A major question in ecology is how age-specific variation in demographic parameters influences population dynamics. Based on long-term studies of growing populations of birds and mammals, we analyze population dynamics by using fluctuations in the total reproductive value of the population. This enables us to account for random fluctuations in age distribution. The influence of demographic and environmental stochasticity on the population dynamics of a species decreased with generation time. Variation in age-specific contributions to total reproductive value and to stochastic components of population dynamics was correlated with the position of the species along the slow-fast continuum of life-history variation. Younger age classes relative to the generation time accounted for larger contributions to the total reproductive value and to demographic stochasticity in "slow" than in "fast" species, in which many age classes contributed more equally. In contrast, fluctuations in population growth rate attributable to stochastic environmental variation involved a larger proportion of all age classes independent of life history. Thus, changes in population growth rates can be surprisingly well explained by basic species-specific life-history characteristics.

Effects of harvest and climate on population dynamics of northern bobwhites in south Florida

Context Hunting-related (hereafter harvest) mortality is assumed to be compensatory in many exploited species. However, when harvest mortality is additive, hunting can lead to population declines, especially on public land where hunting pressure can be intense. Recent studies indicate that excessive hunting may have contributed to the decline of a northern bobwhite (Colinus virginianus) population in south Florida. Aims This study aimed to estimate population growth rates to determine potential and actual contribution of vital rates to annual changes in population growth rates, and to evaluate the role of harvest and climatic variables on bobwhite population decline. Methods We used demographic parameters estimated from a six-year study to parameterise population matrix models and conduct prospective and retrospective perturbation analyses. Key results The stochastic population growth rate (λS = 0.144) was proportionally more sensitive to adult winter survival and survival of fledglings, nests and broods from first nesting attempts; the same variables were primarily responsible for annual changes in population growth rate. Demographic parameters associated with second nesting attempts made virtually no contribution to population growth rate. All harvest scenarios consistently revealed a substantial impact of harvest on bobwhite population dynamics. If the lowest harvest level recorded in the study period (i.e. 0.08 birds harvested per day per km2 in 2008) was applied, λS would increase by 32.1%. Winter temperatures and precipitation negatively affected winter survival, and precipitation acted synergistically with harvest in affecting winter survival. Conclusions Our results suggest that reduction in winter survival due to overharvest has been an important cause of the decline in our study population, but that climatic factors might have also played a role. Thus, for management actions to be effective, assessing the contribution of primary (e.g. harvesting) but also secondary factors (e.g. climate) to population decline may be necessary. Implications Reducing hunting pressure would be necessary for the recovery of the bobwhite population at our study site. In addition, an adaptive harvest management strategy that considers weather conditions in setting harvest quota would help reverse the population decline further.

Hormonal correlates of individual quality in a long-lived bird: a test of the 'corticosterone-fitness hypothesis'

Measuring individual quality in vertebrates is difficult. Focusing on allostasis mechanisms may be useful because they are functionally involved in the ability of an individual to survive and reproduce in its environment. Thus, a rise in stress hormones levels (corticosterone) occurs when an organism has to cope with challenging environmental conditions. This has recently led to the proposal of the 'cort-fitness hypothesis', which suggests that elevated baseline corticosterone levels should be found in individuals of poor quality that have difficulty coping with their environment. We tested this hypothesis by comparing an integrative measure of individual quality to baseline corticosterone in black-browed albatrosses (Thalassarche melanophrys). We found that individual baseline corticosterone levels were related to individual quality and highly repeatable from one breeding season to the next. Importantly, this relationship was found in males, but not in females. Therefore, we suggest that the relationship between quality and baseline corticosterone levels may depend on the environmental and energetic constraints that individuals have to cope with.

Long- and short-term influence of environment on recruitment in a species with highly delayed maturity

Short-term effects of environmental perturbations on various life history traits are reasonably well documented in birds and mammals. But, in the present context of global climate change, there is a need to consider potential long-term effects of natal conditions to better understand and predict the consequences of these changes on population dynamics. The environmental conditions affecting offspring during their early development may determine their lifetime reproductive performance, and therefore the number of recruits produced by a cohort. In this study, we attempted to link recruitment to natal and recent (previous year) conditions in the long-lived black-browed albatross (Thalassarche melanophrys) at Kerguelen Islands. The environmental variability was described using both climatic variables over breeding (sea surface temperature anomaly) and non-breeding grounds (Southern Oscillation index), and variables related to the colony (breeding success and colony size). Immature survival was linked to the breeding success of the colony in the year of birth, which was expected to reflect the average seasonal parental investment. At the cohort level, this initial mortality event may act as a selective filter shaping the number, and presumably the quality (breeding frequency, breeding success probability), of the individuals that recruit into the breeding population. The decision to start breeding was strongly structured by the age of the individuals and adjusted according to recent conditions. An effect of natal conditions was not detected on this parameter, supporting the selection hypothesis. Recruitment, as a whole, was thus influenced by a combination of long- and short-term environmental impacts. Our results highlight the complexity of the influence of environmental factors on such long-lived species, due to the time-lag (associated with a delayed maturity) between the impact of natal conditions on individuals and their repercussion on the breeding population.