Noise-induced versus intrinsic oscillation in ecological systems

Studies of oscillatory populations have a long history in ecology. A first-principles understanding of these dynamics can provide insights into causes of population regulation and help with selecting detailed predictive models. A particularly difficult challenge is determining the relative role of deterministic versus stochastic forces in producing oscillations. We employ statistical physics concepts, including measures of spatial synchrony, that incorporate patterns at all scales and are novel to ecology, to show that spatial patterns can, under broad and well-defined circumstances, elucidate drivers of population dynamics. We find that when neighbours are coupled (e.g. by dispersal), noisy intrinsic oscillations become distinguishable from noise-induced oscillations at a transition point related to synchronisation that is distinct from the deterministic bifurcation point. We derive this transition point and show that it diverges from the deterministic bifurcation point as stochasticity increases. The concept of universality suggests that the results are robust and widely applicable.

The hidden effect of inadvertent social information use on fluctuating predator–prey dynamics

Understanding biotic interactions and abiotic forces that govern population regulation is crucial for predicting stability from both theoretical and applied perspectives. In recent years, social information has been proposed to profoundly affect the dynamics of populations and facilitate the coexistence of interacting species. However, we have limited knowledge about how social information use influences cyclic and non-cyclic fluctuations of populations and if any population-level effects can be expected in species where individuals do not form social groups. In this study, I built individual-based models in a factorial design to investigate how predator avoidance behaviour and associated inadvertent social information (ISI) use alters the predictions of classical predator–prey population models in non-grouping (e.g., randomly moving) animals. Simulation results showed that ISI use in prey stabilized population dynamics by disrupting high-amplitude cyclic fluctuations in both predator and prey populations. Moreover, it also decreased the strength of the negative feedback of second-order dependence between predator and prey. I propose that if social cues are commonly used sources of information in animals regardless of the level of social organization, then similar social information-mediated effects on trophic interactions and population dynamics may be prevalent in natural communities.

Generation Time in Structured Populations

Generation time is an intuitively simple concept, but for structured populations there are multiple definitions and no general understanding of how they relate to each other. François Bienvenu and Stéphane Legendre, in their note "A New Approach to the Generation Time in Matrix Population Models," appearing in the June 2015 issue of The American Naturalist, introduced a new measure of generation time T_a, the average time between birth events in an ancestral lineage, and derived the remarkably simple formula [Formula: see text] for any matrix model, where F is the fecundity matrix, v is reproductive value, and w is stable population structure. Here I generalize their formula and interpretations of T_a to a continuous or continuous-discrete population structure and derive similar formulas for three other established generation time measures: average parent age across all births at one time ([Formula: see text]) and mean parent age at birth events for a cohort (μ₁) or generation (T_c). The new formulas reveal that these differently defined measures are unexpectedly often identical in value and clarify when they differ.