Risk prediction of in-hospital mortality among patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus and concomitant community-acquired pneumonia

Nomogram for prediction of severe community-acquired pneumonia development in diabetic patients: a multicenter study

Background

Diabetic patients with community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) have an increased risk of progressing to severe CAP. It is essential to develop predictive tools at the onset of the disease for early identification and intervention. This study aimed to develop and validate a clinical feature-based nomogram to identify diabetic patients with CAP at risk of developing severe CAP.

Method

A retrospective cohort study was conducted between January 2019 to December 2020. 1026 patients with CAP admitted in 48 hospitals in Shanghai were enrolled. All included patients were randomly divided into the training and validation samples with a ratio of 7:3. The nomogram for the prediction of severe CAP development was established based on the results of the multivariate logistic regression analysis and other predictors with clinical relevance. The nomogram was then assessed using receiver operating characteristic curves (ROC), calibration curve, and decision curve analysis (DCA).

Results

Multivariate analysis showed that chronic kidney dysfunction, malignant tumor, abnormal neutrophil count, abnormal lymphocyte count, decreased serum albumin level, and increased HbA1c level at admission was independently associated with progression to severe CAP in diabetic patients. A nomogram was established based on these above risk factors and other predictors with clinical relevance. The area under the curve (AUC) of the nomogram was 0.87 (95% CI 0.83–0.90) in the training set and 0.84 (95% CI 0.78–0.90). The calibration curve showed excellent agreement between the predicted possibility by the nomogram and the actual observation. The decision curve analysis indicated that the nomogram was applicable with a wide range of threshold probabilities due to the net benefit.

Conclusion

Our nomogram can be applied to estimate early the probabilities of severe CAP development in diabetic patients with CAP, which has good prediction accuracy and discrimination abilities. Since included biomarkers are common, our findings may be performed well in clinical practice and improve the early management of diabetic patients with CAP.

Incorporation of Suppression of Tumorigenicity 2 into Random Survival Forests for Enhancing Prediction of Short-Term Prognosis in Community-ACQUIRED Pneumonia

(1) Background: Biomarker and model development can help physicians adjust the management of patients with community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) by screening for inpatients with a low probability of cure early in their admission; (2) Methods: We conducted a 30-day cohort study of newly admitted adult CAP patients over 20 years of age. Prognosis models to predict the short-term prognosis were developed using random survival forest (RSF) method; (3) Results: A total of 247 adult CAP patients were studied and 208 (84.21%) of them reached clinical stability within 30 days. The soluble form of suppression of tumorigenicity-2 (sST2) was an independent predictor of clinical stability and the addition of sST2 to the prognosis model could improve the performance of the prognosis model. The C-index of the RSF model for predicting clinical stability was 0.8342 (95% CI, 0.8086–0.8598), which is higher than 0.7181 (95% CI, 0.6933–0.7429) of CURB 65 score, 0.8025 (95% CI, 0.7776–8274) of PSI score, and 0.8214 (95% CI, 0.8080–0.8348) of cox regression. In addition, the RSF model was associated with adverse clinical events during hospitalization, ICU admissions, and short-term mortality; (4) Conclusions: The RSF model by incorporating sST2 was more accurate than traditional methods in assessing the short-term prognosis of CAP patients.

Diabetic women: Inpatient mortality risk before SARS-CoV-2

Background

Type 2 diabetes mellitus is a major driver of mortality worldwide. To assess the risk factors associated with diabetes that increase in-hospital mortality.

Methods

A retrospective cohort study was conducted using the National Hospital Morbidity with a sample of 3904 diabetic women admitted (2018–2019) in public hospitals, in Portugal. The type of comorbidities and the severity of the main disease – type 2 diabetes mellitus – was assessed based on the International Classification of Diseases (ICD-9) and Disease Staging. Cox proportional hazard was used to assess mortality during hospitalization. Mortality rates and mortality risk were the main outcome measures.

Results

In a total of 3904 diabetic women three hundred and eighty-nine (10.0%) died during hospitalization. Comorbidities bacterial pneumonia and coronary artery disease contributed 73% [Hazard ratio (HR) 1.73, 95% CI 1.32–2.27] and 37% [HR 1.37, 95% CI 1.03–1.81] respectively, to the risk of mortality, as did age over 65 years and severity 3 of the main disease.

Conclusions

Women with advanced type 2 diabetes mellitus, advanced age, and with comorbidities such as pneumonia and coronary artery disease admitted urgently have a higher risk of mortality during hospitalization.

Prevalence and Clinical Significance of Occult Pulmonary Infection in Elderly Patients with Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus

The occult pulmonary infection is the most common complications in elderly patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). Since its etiological characteristics has not been clarified, infection control remains a serious problem for public health. To investigate the prevalence and clinical significance of occult pulmonary infection in elderly T2DM patients, in this study, 573 elderly patients cochallenged with T2DM and community-acquired pulmonary infection from January 2018 to December 2020 were selected in the hospitals and divided into occult pneumonia group (OP, n = 249) and nonoccult pneumonia group (NOP, n = 324) according to the nature of infection. Clinical medical records were analyzed retrospectively to summarize the infection characteristics of elderly diabetics with occult pneumonia. The prevalence of the cases (278/324, 85.8%) in NOP group was not higher than that in OP group (206/249, 82.7%; P > 0.05). Also, there was not significant difference in the distribution of isolated pathogens among the positive patients. The length of hospitalization and mortality of OP patients were significantly higher than those NOP patients. Multivariate logistic regression showed that advanced age, comorbidities, hypothyroidism, senile dementia, and prolonged bed rest were independent risk factors for occult pneumonia in elderly diabetic patients. Therefore, the results demonstrated that the pulmonary infection in elderly patients with diabetes mellitus is often occult. Gram-negative bacteria are the predominant pathogens and cause poor prognosis. Advanced age, comorbidities (senile dementia, hypothyroidism), and prolonged bed rest are the independent risk factors for occult pneumonia.

Association between neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio and mortality among community acquired pneumonia patients: a meta-analysis

The neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio (NLR)is an emerging biomarker used in the prognosis of many conditions. We aimed to conduct a meta-analysis to assess the prognostic accuracy of the NLR in determining mortality in patients with Community acquired pneumonia (CAP). The Pubmed, EBSCO, and Scopus databases were searched to find all relevant articles. 10 articles with 5220 patients were included. The pooled area under the curve (AUC) of NLR admission levels to predict 30-Day mortality of CAP patients was 0.706; 95% CI (0.631 to 0.781), while the pooled AUC of NLR levels taken at 3-5 days was 0.882; 95% CI (0.818 to 0.945). Meta analysis also showed a significant difference in the NLR between the Survivors and 30-Day non-survivors. This difference was greater when NLR levels were taken at 3-5 days; Standardized mean difference (SMD) = 1.646; 95% CI (0.451 to 2.840) compared to NLR levels at admission SMD = 1.139; 95% CI (0.514 to 1.764). These results show that the NLR has potential to be incorporated in the routine assessment and stratification of CAP patients, especially in the early-stage evolution (3-5 days), keeping in mind the availability and cost effectiveness of this test.

Clinical characteristics and risk factors associated with mortality in patients with severe community-acquired pneumonia and type 2 diabetes mellitus

BACKGROUND

The present study was performed to investigate the impacts of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) on severe community-acquired pneumonia (SCAP) and to develop a novel prediction model for mortality in SCAP patients with T2DM.

METHODS

This was a retrospective observational study conducted in consecutive adult patients with SCAP admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) of West China Hospital, Sichuan University, China, between September 2011 and September 2019. The primary outcome was hospital mortality. A propensity score matching (PSM) analysis model with a 1:2 ratio was used for the comparisons of clinical characteristics and outcomes between T2DM and nondiabetic patients. The independent risk factors were identified via univariate and then multivariable logistic regression analysis and were then used to establish a nomogram.

RESULTS

In total, 1262 SCAP patients with T2DM and 2524 matched patients without T2DM were included after PSM. Patients with T2DM had longer ICU length of stay (LOS) (13 vs. 12 days, P = 0.016) and higher 14-day mortality (15% vs. 10.8%, P < 0.001), 30-day mortality (25.7% vs. 22.7%, P = 0.046), ICU mortality (30.8% vs. 26.5%, P = 0.005), and hospital mortality (35.2% vs. 31.0%, P = 0.009) than those without T2DM. In SCAP patients with T2DM, the independent risk factors for hospital mortality were increased numbers of comorbidities and diabetes-related complications; elevated C-reactive protein (CRP), neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio (NLR), brain natriuretic peptide (BNP) and blood lactate; as well as decreased blood pressure on admission. The nomogram had a C index of 0.907 (95% CI: 0.888, 0.927) in the training set and 0.873 (95% CI: 0.836, 0.911) in the testing set, which was superior to the pneumonia severity index (PSI, AUC: 0.809, 95% CI: 0.785, 0.833). The calibration curve and decision curve analysis (DCA) also demonstrated its accuracy and applicability.

CONCLUSIONS

SCAP patients with T2DM had worse clinical outcomes than nondiabetic patients. The nomogram has good predictive performance for hospital mortality and might be generally applied after more external validations.

The Serum from Patients with Secondary Frozen Shoulder Following Rotator Cuff Repair Induces Shoulder Capsule Fibrosis and Promotes Macrophage Polarization and Fibroblast Activation

PURPOSE

Disorders with systematic inflammation were prognostic for secondary frozen shoulder (sFS) following rotator cuff repair (RCR); however, how systematic inflammation affects sFS remains unclear. The aim of this study was to observe the effect of pre-operative serum from patients with sFS and the serum from those without on shoulder capsule in mice, and on macrophages and fibroblasts in vitro.

METHODS

Serum samples of a consecutive cohort of patients for RCR were collected pre-operatively. Three months after RCR, patients who developed sFS (Group S) were identified. Serum samples from gender- and age-matched controls without sFS (group NS) were also picked out. Firstly, the effect of serum on shoulder capsule fibrosis was observed histologically and biomechanically in a mouse model of RCR. Secondly, the roles of the serum on macrophage polarization and fibroblast activation were investigated, and the potentially involved signaling pathways were identified. Finally, inflammation and fibrosis-related cytokines in serum were quantified.

RESULTS

In our cohort, all patients had free pre-operative shoulder range of motion. Seven patients developed sFS at 3 months after surgery. Seven matched patients without sFS were selected as control. The inter-group difference of basic characteristics was not significant. Compared to the serum of group NS, the serum of group S significantly induced hypercellularity, capsular thickening, and range of motion deficiency in mice shoulders after RCR. Compared to the serum of group NS, samples of group S significantly promoted M2 polarization of THP-1 human macrophages and the activation of human capsule-derived fibroblasts. Meanwhile, Smad3 and p-Smad3 in macrophages and fibroblasts were significantly up-regulated. On the other hand, levels of inflammation and fibrosis-related cytokines were not significantly different between serum in group S and group NS.

CONCLUSION

Although all patients in this cohort had free range of motion pre-operatively, the pre-operative serum from patients with sFS at 3 months after RCR could act as a trigger of shoulder capsule fibrosis post-operatively. This effect may be related to its promotion on macrophage polarization to M2 phenotype and fibroblast activation.

Association of glycosylated hemoglobin and outcomes in patients with COVID-19 and pre-existing type 2 diabetes: A protocol for systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

The impact of glycosylated hemoglobin on mortality in patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and type 2 diabetes (T2D) remains uncertain. In this study, we aim to assess the effect of pre-hospital blood glucose regulation on patients with COVID-19 and pre-existing T2D.

METHODS

All randomized controlled trials (RCTs) and cohort studies of association of glycosylated hemoglobin and outcomes in patients with COVID-19 and T2D will be included in this review. PubMed, Embase, and CNKI will be searched for relevant literature, up to August 20, 2020 in English and Chinese language. Two reviewers will select trials independently for inclusion and assess trial quality. Two pairs of authors will independently extract information for each included trials. Primary outcomes are death and composite adverse outcomes: the number of participants who died or remained severely disabled. Revman 5.3 will be used for heterogeneity assessment, data synthesis, subgroup analysis, sensitivity analysisa and generating funnel-plots.

RESULTS

We will provide practical results about the association of glycosylated hemoglobin and outcomes in patients with COVID-19 and T2D.

CONCLUSION

The stronger evidence about the association of glycosylated hemoglobin and outcomes in patients with COVID-19 and T2D will be provided for clinical practice.

SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION

PROSPERO CRD42020200574.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

There is no need for ethical approval, and the review will be reported in a peer-reviewed journal.