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Shah AA, Schwab JH. Predictive Modeling for Spinal Metastatic Disease. Diagnostics (Basel) 2024; 14:962. [PMID: 38732376 PMCID: PMC11083521 DOI: 10.3390/diagnostics14090962] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/14/2024] [Revised: 04/27/2024] [Accepted: 04/29/2024] [Indexed: 05/13/2024] Open
Abstract
Spinal metastasis is exceedingly common in patients with cancer and its prevalence is expected to increase. Surgical management of symptomatic spinal metastasis is indicated for pain relief, preservation or restoration of neurologic function, and mechanical stability. The overall prognosis is a major driver of treatment decisions; however, clinicians' ability to accurately predict survival is limited. In this narrative review, we first discuss the NOMS decision framework used to guide decision making in the treatment of patients with spinal metastasis. Given that decision making hinges on prognosis, multiple scoring systems have been developed over the last three decades to predict survival in patients with spinal metastasis; these systems have largely been developed using expert opinions or regression modeling. Although these tools have provided significant advances in our ability to predict prognosis, their utility is limited by the relative lack of patient-specific survival probability. Machine learning models have been developed in recent years to close this gap. Employing a greater number of features compared to models developed with conventional statistics, machine learning algorithms have been reported to predict 30-day, 6-week, 90-day, and 1-year mortality in spinal metastatic disease with excellent discrimination. These models are well calibrated and have been externally validated with domestic and international independent cohorts. Despite hypothesized and realized limitations, the role of machine learning methodology in predicting outcomes in spinal metastatic disease is likely to grow.
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Affiliation(s)
- Akash A. Shah
- Department of Orthopaedic Surgery, David Geffen School of Medicine at UCLA, Los Angeles, CA 90095, USA
| | - Joseph H. Schwab
- Department of Orthopaedic Surgery, Cedars-Sinai Medical Center, Los Angeles, CA 90048, USA;
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2
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Maltoni M, Scarpi E, Dall’Agata M, Micheletti S, Pallotti MC, Pieri M, Ricci M, Romeo A, Tenti MV, Tontini L, Rossi R. Prognostication in palliative radiotherapy—ProPaRT: Accuracy of prognostic scores. Front Oncol 2022; 12:918414. [PMID: 36052228 PMCID: PMC9425085 DOI: 10.3389/fonc.2022.918414] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/12/2022] [Accepted: 07/22/2022] [Indexed: 11/13/2022] Open
Abstract
BackgroundPrognostication can be used within a tailored decision-making process to achieve a more personalized approach to the care of patients with cancer. This prospective observational study evaluated the accuracy of the Palliative Prognostic score (PaP score) to predict survival in patients identified by oncologists as candidates for palliative radiotherapy (PRT). We also studied interrater variability for the clinical prediction of survival and PaP scores and assessed the accuracy of the Survival Prediction Score (SPS) and TEACHH score.Materials and methodsConsecutive patients were enrolled at first access to our Radiotherapy and Palliative Care Outpatient Clinic. The discriminating ability of the prognostic models was assessed using Harrell’s C index, and the corresponding 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) were obtained by bootstrapping.ResultsIn total, 255 patients with metastatic cancer were evaluated, and 123 (48.2%) were selected for PRT, all of whom completed treatment without interruption. Then, 10.6% of the irradiated patients who died underwent treatment within the last 30 days of life. The PaP score showed an accuracy of 74.8 (95% CI, 69.5–80.1) for radiation oncologist (RO) and 80.7 (95% CI, 75.9–85.5) for palliative care physician (PCP) in predicting 30-day survival. The accuracy of TEACHH was 76.1 (95% CI, 70.9–81.3) and 64.7 (95% CI, 58.8–70.6) for RO and PCP, respectively, and the accuracy of SPS was 70 (95% CI, 64.4–75.6) and 72.8 (95% CI, 67.3–78.3).ConclusionAccurate prognostication can identify candidates for low-fraction PRT during the last days of life who are more likely to complete the planned treatment without interruption.All the scores showed good discriminating capacity; the PaP had the higher accuracy, especially when used in a multidisciplinary way.
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Affiliation(s)
- Marco Maltoni
- Medical Oncology Unit, Department of Specialized, Experimental and Diagnostic Medicine (DIMES), University of Bologna, Bologna, Italy
| | - Emanuela Scarpi
- Unit of Biostatistics and Clinical Trials, IRCCS Istituto Romagnolo per lo Studio dei Tumori (IRST) “Dino Amadori”, Meldola, Italy
- *Correspondence: Emanuela Scarpi,
| | - Monia Dall’Agata
- Unit of Biostatistics and Clinical Trials, IRCCS Istituto Romagnolo per lo Studio dei Tumori (IRST) “Dino Amadori”, Meldola, Italy
| | - Simona Micheletti
- Radiotherapy Unit, Istituto di Ricovero e Cura a Carattere Scientifico (IRCCS) Istituto Romagnolo per lo Studio dei Tumori (IRST) “Dino Amadori”, Meldola, Italy
| | - Maria Caterina Pallotti
- Palliative Care Unit, IRCCS Istituto Romagnolo per lo Studio dei Tumori (IRST) “Dino Amadori”, Meldola, Italy
| | - Martina Pieri
- Radiotherapy Unit, Istituto di Ricovero e Cura a Carattere Scientifico (IRCCS) Istituto Romagnolo per lo Studio dei Tumori (IRST) “Dino Amadori”, Meldola, Italy
| | - Marianna Ricci
- Palliative Care Unit, IRCCS Istituto Romagnolo per lo Studio dei Tumori (IRST) “Dino Amadori”, Meldola, Italy
| | - Antonino Romeo
- Radiotherapy Unit, Istituto di Ricovero e Cura a Carattere Scientifico (IRCCS) Istituto Romagnolo per lo Studio dei Tumori (IRST) “Dino Amadori”, Meldola, Italy
| | | | - Luca Tontini
- Radiotherapy Unit, Istituto di Ricovero e Cura a Carattere Scientifico (IRCCS) Istituto Romagnolo per lo Studio dei Tumori (IRST) “Dino Amadori”, Meldola, Italy
| | - Romina Rossi
- Palliative Care Unit, IRCCS Istituto Romagnolo per lo Studio dei Tumori (IRST) “Dino Amadori”, Meldola, Italy
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Haaser T, Constantinides Y, Huguet F, De Crevoisier R, Dejean C, Escande A, Ghannam Y, Lahmi L, Le Tallec P, Lecouillard I, Lorchel F, Thureau S, Lagrange JL. [Ethical stakes in palliative care in radiation oncology]. Cancer Radiother 2021; 25:699-706. [PMID: 34400087 DOI: 10.1016/j.canrad.2021.07.004] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/13/2021] [Accepted: 07/24/2021] [Indexed: 11/29/2022]
Abstract
In 2021, the Ethics Commission of the SFRO has chosen the issue of the practice of palliative care in radiotherapy oncology. Radiation oncology plays a central role in the care of patients with cancer in palliative phase. But behind the broad name of palliative radiotherapy, we actually find a large variety of situations involving diverse ethical issues. Radiation oncologists have the delicate task to take into account multiple factors throughout a complex decision-making process. While the question of the therapeutic indication and the technical choice allowing it to be implemented remains central, reflection cannot be limited to these decision-making and technical aspects alone. It is also a question of being able to create the conditions for a singularity focused care and to build an authentic care relationship, beyond technicity. It is through this daily ethical work, in close collaboration with patients, and under essential conditions of multidisciplinarity and multiprofessionalism, that our fundamental role as caregiver can be deployed.
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Affiliation(s)
- T Haaser
- Service d'Oncologie Radiothérapie, Hôpital Haut Lévêque, Centre Hospitalier Universitaire de Bordeaux, avenue Magellan, 33600 Pessac, France.
| | - Y Constantinides
- Espace Éthique Ile de France, Paris Université Sorbonne Nouvelle, Paris, France
| | - F Huguet
- Service d'Oncologie Radiothérapie, Hôpital Tenon, Centre de Recherche Saint-Antoine UMR_S 938, Institut Universitaire de Cancérologie, AP-HP, Sorbonne Université, Paris, France
| | - R De Crevoisier
- Service d'Oncologie Radiothérapie, Centre Eugène Marquis, Rennes, France
| | - C Dejean
- Service d'Oncologie Radiothérapie, Unité de Physique Médicale, Centre Antoine Lacassagne, Nice, France
| | - A Escande
- Service universitaire d'Oncologie Radiothérapie, Centre Oscar Lambret, Faculté de médecine Henri Warembourg, Laboratoire CRIStAL, UMR9189, Université de Lille, Lille, France
| | - Y Ghannam
- Service d'Oncologie Radiothérapie, Hôpital Tenon, Centre de Recherche Saint-Antoine UMR_S 938, Institut Universitaire de Cancérologie, AP-HP, Sorbonne Université, Paris, France
| | - L Lahmi
- Service d'Oncologie Radiothérapie, Hôpital Tenon, Centre de Recherche Saint-Antoine UMR_S 938, Institut Universitaire de Cancérologie, AP-HP, Sorbonne Université, Paris, France
| | - P Le Tallec
- Service d'Oncologie Radiothérapie, Quantis Litis EA 4108, Centre Henri Becquerel, Rouen, France
| | - I Lecouillard
- Service d'Oncologie Radiothérapie, Centre Eugène Marquis, Rennes, France
| | - F Lorchel
- Service d'Oncologie Radiothérapie, Centre Hospitalier Universitaire Lyon-Sud, Lyon, France; Centre d'Oncologie Radiothérapie et Oncologie de Mâcon - ORLAM, Mâcon, France
| | - S Thureau
- Service d'Oncologie Radiothérapie, Quantis Litis EA 4108, Centre Henri Becquerel, Rouen, France
| | - J L Lagrange
- Université Paris-Est Créteil Val de Marne, Paris, France
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Ning MS, Das P, Rosenthal DI, Dabaja BS, Liao Z, Chang JY, Gomez DR, Klopp AH, Gunn GB, Allen PK, Nitsch PL, Natter RB, Briere TM, Herman JM, Wells R, Koong AC, McAleer MF. Early and Midtreatment Mortality in Palliative Radiotherapy: Emphasizing Patient Selection in High-Quality End-of-Life Care. J Natl Compr Canc Netw 2021; 19:805-813. [PMID: 33878727 DOI: 10.6004/jnccn.2020.7664] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/24/2020] [Accepted: 09/28/2020] [Indexed: 11/17/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Palliative radiotherapy (RT) is effective, but some patients die during treatment or too soon afterward to experience benefit. This study investigates end-of-life RT patterns to inform shared decision-making and facilitate treatment consistent with palliative goals. MATERIALS AND METHODS All patients who died ≤6 months after initiating palliative RT at an academic cancer center between 2015 and 2018 were identified. Associations with time-to-death, early mortality (≤30 days), and midtreatment mortality were analyzed. RESULTS In total, 1,620 patients died ≤6 months from palliative RT initiation, including 574 (34%) deaths at ≤30 days and 222 (14%) midtreatment. Median survival was 43 days from RT start (95% CI, 41-45) and varied by site (P<.001), ranging from 36 (head and neck) to 53 days (dermal/soft tissue). On multivariable analysis, earlier time-to-death was associated with osseous (hazard ratio [HR], 1.33; P<.001) and head and neck (HR, 1.45; P<.001) sites, multiple RT courses ≤6 months (HR, 1.65; P<.001), and multisite treatments (HR, 1.40; P=.008), whereas stereotactic technique (HR, 0.77; P<.001) and more recent treatment year (HR, 0.82; P<.001) were associated with longer survival. No difference in time to death was noted among patients prescribed conventional RT in 1 to 10 versus >10 fractions (median, 40 vs 47 days; P=.272), although the latter entailed longer courses. The 30-day mortality group included 335 (58%) inpatients, who were 27% more likely to die midtreatment (P=.031). On multivariable analysis, midtreatment mortality among these inpatients was associated with thoracic (odds ratio [OR], 2.95; P=.002) and central nervous system (CNS; OR, 2.44; P=.002) indications, >5-fraction courses (OR, 3.27; P<.001), and performance status of 3 to 4 (OR, 1.63; P=.050). Conversely, palliative/supportive care consultation was associated with decreased midtreatment mortality (OR, 0.60; P=.045). CONCLUSIONS Earlier referrals and hypofractionated courses (≤5-10 treatments) should be routinely considered for palliative RT indications, given the short life expectancies of patients at this stage in their disease course. Providers should exercise caution for emergent thoracic and CNS indications among inpatients with poor prognoses due to high midtreatment mortality.
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Affiliation(s)
| | | | | | | | | | | | - Daniel R Gomez
- Department of Radiation Oncology, Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, New York, New York
| | | | | | | | - Paige L Nitsch
- Radiation Physics, The University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, Texas
| | | | - Tina M Briere
- Radiation Physics, The University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, Texas
| | - Joseph M Herman
- Department of Radiation Medicine, Zucker School of Medicine at Hofstra/Northwell, Lake Success, New York
| | - Rebecca Wells
- Department of Management, Policy, and Community Health, University of Texas Health Science Center School of Public Health, Houston, Texas; and
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Elledge CR, LaVigne AW, Fiksel J, Wright JL, McNutt T, Kleinberg LR, Hu C, Smith TJ, Zeger S, DeWeese TL, Alcorn SR. External Validation of the Bone Metastases Ensemble Trees for Survival (BMETS) Machine Learning Model to Predict Survival in Patients With Symptomatic Bone Metastases. JCO Clin Cancer Inform 2021; 5:304-314. [PMID: 33760638 DOI: 10.1200/cci.20.00128] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/16/2022] Open
Abstract
PURPOSE The Bone Metastases Ensemble Trees for Survival (BMETS) model uses a machine learning algorithm to estimate survival time following consultation for palliative radiation therapy for symptomatic bone metastases (SBM). BMETS was developed at a tertiary-care, academic medical center, but its validity and stability when applied to external data sets are unknown. PATIENTS AND METHODS Patients treated with palliative radiation therapy for SBM from May 2013 to May 2016 at two hospital-based community radiation oncology clinics were included, and medical records were retrospectively reviewed to collect model covariates and survival time. The Kaplan-Meier method was used to estimate overall survival from consultation to death or last follow-up. Model discrimination was estimated using time-dependent area under the curve (tAUC), which was calculated using survival predictions from BMETS based on the initial training data set. RESULTS A total of 216 sites of SBM were treated in 182 patients. Most common histologies were breast (27%), lung (23%), and prostate (23%). Compared with the BMETS training set, the external validation population was older (mean age, 67 v 62 years; P < .001), had more primary breast (27% v 19%; P = .03) and prostate cancer (20% v 12%; P = .01), and survived longer (median, 10.7 v 6.4 months). When the BMETS model was applied to the external data set, tAUC values at 3, 6, and 12 months were 0.82, 0.77, and 0.77, respectively. When refit with data from the combined training and external validation sets, tAUC remained > 0.79. CONCLUSION BMETS maintained high discriminative ability when applied to an external validation set and when refit with new data, supporting its generalizability, stability, and the feasibility of dynamic modeling.
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Affiliation(s)
- Christen R Elledge
- Department of Radiation Oncology and Molecular Radiation Sciences, Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD
| | - Anna W LaVigne
- Department of Radiation Oncology and Molecular Radiation Sciences, Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD
| | - Jacob Fiksel
- Department of Biostatistics, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD
| | - Jean L Wright
- Department of Radiation Oncology and Molecular Radiation Sciences, Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD
| | - Todd McNutt
- Department of Radiation Oncology and Molecular Radiation Sciences, Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD
| | - Lawrence R Kleinberg
- Department of Radiation Oncology and Molecular Radiation Sciences, Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD
| | - Chen Hu
- Department of Oncology, Johns Hopkins School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD
| | - Thomas J Smith
- Department of Oncology, Johns Hopkins School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD
| | - Scott Zeger
- Department of Biostatistics, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD
| | - Theodore L DeWeese
- Department of Radiation Oncology and Molecular Radiation Sciences, Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD
| | - Sara R Alcorn
- Department of Radiation Oncology and Molecular Radiation Sciences, Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD
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Chu C, Anderson R, White N, Stone P. Prognosticating for Adult Patients With Advanced Incurable Cancer: a Needed Oncologist Skill. Curr Treat Options Oncol 2020; 21:5. [PMID: 31950387 PMCID: PMC6965075 DOI: 10.1007/s11864-019-0698-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 28] [Impact Index Per Article: 7.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/13/2022]
Abstract
Patients with advanced cancer and their families commonly seek information about prognosis to aid decision-making in medical (e.g. surrounding treatment), psychological (e.g. saying goodbye), and social (e.g. getting affairs in order) domains. Oncologists therefore have a responsibility to identify and address these requests by formulating and sensitively communicating information about prognosis. Current evidence suggests that clinician predictions are correlated with actual survival but tend to be overestimations. In an attempt to cultivate prognostic skills, it is recommended that clinicians practice formulating and recording subjective estimates of prognosis in advanced cancer patient’s medical notes. When possible, a multi-professional prognostic estimate should be sought as these may be more accurate than individual predictions alone. Clinicians may consider auditing the accuracy of their predictions periodically and using feedback from this process to improve their prognostic skills. Clinicians may also consider using validated prognostic tools to complement their clinical judgements. However, there is currently only limited evidence about the comparative accuracy of different prognostic tools or the extent to which these measures are superior to clinical judgement. Oncologists and palliative care physicians should ensure that they receive adequate training in advanced communication skills, which builds upon their pre-existing skills, to sensitively deliver information on prognosis. In particular, clinicians should acknowledge their own prognostic uncertainty and should emphasise the supportive care that can continue to be provided after stopping cancer-directed therapies.
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Affiliation(s)
- Christina Chu
- Marie Curie Palliative Care Research Department, Division of Psychiatry, University College London (UCL), 6th Floor, Maple House, 149 Tottenham Court Road, London, W1T 7NF, UK
| | - Rebecca Anderson
- Marie Curie Palliative Care Research Department, Division of Psychiatry, University College London (UCL), 6th Floor, Maple House, 149 Tottenham Court Road, London, W1T 7NF, UK
| | - Nicola White
- Marie Curie Palliative Care Research Department, Division of Psychiatry, University College London (UCL), 6th Floor, Maple House, 149 Tottenham Court Road, London, W1T 7NF, UK
| | - Patrick Stone
- Marie Curie Palliative Care Research Department, Division of Psychiatry, University College London (UCL), 6th Floor, Maple House, 149 Tottenham Court Road, London, W1T 7NF, UK.
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