Modeling the future effects of a menthol ban on smoking prevalence and smoking-attributable deaths in the United States

Hypothetical demand for menthol and non-menthol cigarettes and substitution among people who smoke menthol cigarettes: A within subjects between group randomized controlled trial using the experimental tobacco marketplace

INTRODUCTION

The Food and Drug Administration has recently released a final rule enacting a characterizing flavor ban in cigarettes and cigars. Similar efforts have been proposed for e-cigarettes. The aim of this study was to evaluate the effect of a potential menthol cigarette ban, a fruit and mint flavored e-cigarette ban, and the interaction of the two among current adults who smoke menthol cigarettes.

METHODS

The Experimental Tobacco Marketplace was used to evaluate the within subject purchasing of participants who smoke menthol major name brand (n = 64) and Native manufactured (n = 37) cigarettes when fixed price alternatives and only: 1) menthol cigarettes and mint and fruit flavored e-cigarettes, 2) non-menthol cigarettes and mint and fruit flavored e-cigarettes, 3) menthol cigarettes and tobacco flavored e-cigarettes, and 4) non-menthol cigarettes and tobacco flavored e-cigarettes were available.

RESULTS

Participants who smoked major name brand and Native manufactured menthol cigarettes showed greater cigarette demand (Q0) and less sensitivity to price (α) when menthol cigarettes were available. For those who smoked major name brand cigarettes, the only substitute the emerged was moist snuff when non-menthol cigarettes and fruit and mint e-cigarettes were available. No substitutes were found for those who smoked Native manufactured cigarettes in any flavor availability condition.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

Demand for cigarettes is higher when preferred flavor is available. Substitutes for cigarettes among people who smoke menthol cigarettes are minimal and may indicate that removal of menthol from the landscape may not push people who smoke menthol cigarettes to products other than cigarettes.

DATA AVAILABILITY

The data utilized in this paper are available by request from corresponding author, AJQ, given the participants in this study did not consent to have their data shared with the public. Following publication of primary and secondary results, the corresponding author will provide de-identified data and a data dictionary for requests.

CLINICALTRIALS

GOV ID AND TITLE

NCT03897530; Experimental Tobacco Marketplace in Regulating Flavored Tobacco Products in Menthol Cigarette Smokers.

Tobacco use behaviors in response to menthol restriction: A scoping review

INTRODUCTION

Understanding how menthol smokers change their behaviors in response to a menthol ban is important for public health and tobacco control. The goal of this scoping review is to summarize the up-to-date literature on this topic.

METHODS

On 9 January 2024, we searched PubMed using the terms 'menthol ban and responses', 'menthol ban and quitting', and 'menthol ban switching', and performed forward citation tracking of recent review articles. We extracted data from each study regarding: 1) target population (US vs non-US); 2) type of ban (hypothetical or actual menthol ban); and 3) behavioral responses, including intended outcomes (quitting), harm reduction options (switching to e-cigarettes), and unintended consequences (continuing or switching to non-menthol products).

RESULTS

Our search resulted in 25 publications, including hypothetical bans (n=15), actual bans (n=6), and both scenarios (n=4); 95% and 73% of publications reported more than one behavior change under hypothetical and actual menthol bans, respectively. The majority of the US studies reported predicted behavior transitions under hypothetical bans (89%), while non-US studies have focused on actual menthol bans (73%).

CONCLUSIONS

Generally, the reported behavior transitions under hypothetical and actual bans largely vary in the US and non-US, identifying research gaps regarding geographical coverage, age-specific considerations, and racial/ethnic representation. This scoping review highlights a future research agenda to encourage the public health research community to collect historical data before and after a federal menthol ban.

Electronic Nicotine Delivery Devices Function as a Complement for Cigarillos in Sexual and Gender Minority Young Adult Women

INTRODUCTION

Cigarillos are the second most used tobacco product among younger populations. The highest prevalence of the use of cigars is among sexual and gender minority (SGM) women. Policy interventions like flavor bans and the availability of alternative tobacco products may have a disparate effect.

AIMS AND METHODS

The current study utilized an online store analog, The experimental tobacco marketplace, to investigate the effects of cigarillo and electronic nicotine delivery devices (ENDS) flavor bans on tobacco product purchasing. SGM (n = 72) and cisgender heterosexual (CisHet; n = 46) women viewed conditions in which cigarillo flavors were available or unavailable and ENDS flavors available or unavailable and the interaction between the two. Mixed models were conducted on each dependent variable with condition, price, and SGM identity as predictors and nicotine dependence, annual income, and race/ethnicity as covariates. Simple linear regressions were performed to determine the substitution profile for each tobacco product. Condition showed no effect.

RESULTS

We found a main effect of price on cigarillo purchasing and a main effect of SGM identity in which SGM women purchased more ENDS than CisHet women. A complementary association between cigarillos and ENDS in which ENDS purchasing decreased as cigarillo purchasing decreased was found. This association was irrespective of flavor ban conditions and among SGM women only.

CONCLUSIONS

These results suggest that flavor availability of cigarillos and ENDS may not influence women who use cigarillos to move to another tobacco product and that women SGM cigarillo users are not likely to substitute their cigarillo smoking behavior with ENDS.

IMPLICATIONS

The results of this study suggest that SGM women are not likely to quit using cigarillos if flavors are removed from the market and instead will use unflavored products. Substituting their cigarillo use with ENDS does not appear likely given the complementary relation found between cigarillos and ENDS. The substitution patterns found for cigarettes and ENDS are not found for cigarillos and ENDS among young adult women who use cigarillos, further demonstrating the need for research on the conditions in which people who use cigarillos will decrease consumption or switch to a potentially less harmful product.

The Impact of Menthol Cigarette Bans: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

INTRODUCTION

This review investigates the impacts of banning the sale of menthol cigarettes at stores.

METHODS

A systematic search of studies published in English up to November 2022 was conducted. The following databases were searched: PubMed/Medline, CINAHL, PsycINFO, Web of Science, and Embase, as well as a non-indexed journal. Studies evaluating either the impact of real-world or hypothesized menthol cigarette bans were included. Primary outcomes include tobacco use behaviors. Secondary outcomes include cigarette sales, retailer compliance, and the tobacco industry's response to a menthol ban. Data on tobacco use behavior after a menthol ban were pooled using random-effects models. Two pairs of reviewers independently extracted data and assessed study quality.

RESULTS

Of the 964 articles that were identified during the initial search, 78 were included in the review and 16 were included in the meta-analysis. Cessation rates among menthol cigarette smokers were high after a menthol ban. Pooled results show that 24% (95% confidence interval [95% CI]: 20%, 28%) of menthol cigarette smokers quit smoking after a menthol ban, 50% (95% CI: 31%, 68%) switched to non-menthol cigarettes, 12% (95% CI: 3%, 20%) switched to other flavored tobacco products, and 24% (95% CI: 17%, 31%) continued smoking menthol cigarettes. Hypothesized quitting and switching rates were fairly close to real-world rates. Studies found the tobacco industry attempts to undermine menthol bans. National menthol bans appear more effective than local or state menthol bans.

CONCLUSIONS

Menthol cigarette bans promote smoking cessation suggesting their potential to improve public health.

IMPLICATIONS

Findings from this review suggest that menthol cigarette bans promote smoking cessation among menthol cigarette smokers and have the potential to improve public health.

The Scientific Basis for the Regulation of Flavors in Tobacco Products

Effective tobacco policies are important for reducing the harm of tobacco use and can have a broad impact at the population level. This review provides an overview of how clinical science can inform tobacco policies with a focus on policies related to flavored tobacco products, using menthol cigarettes as an illustrative example. Specifically, this review summarizes the role of flavors in tobacco use and the history of regulation of flavored tobacco products by the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA), provides an overview of clinical research methods used to contribute to the scientific evidence to inform FDA tobacco policies, discusses key findings related to menthol tobacco products using these methods, and proposes future directions for clinical research. As the tobacco marketplace continues to evolve with new products and flavor chemicals, ongoing clinical science will be essential for establishing evidence-based policies to protect public health and reduce tobacco-related health disparities.

Use of Menthol-Flavored Tobacco Products Among US Middle and High School Students: National Youth Tobacco Survey, 2022

Introduction

Menthol cigarettes have been associated with increased smoking initiation. Although numerous studies have focused on correlates of menthol cigarette smoking among youths, fewer studies have assessed the prevalence and correlates of overall menthol-flavored tobacco product use among middle and high school students.

Methods

We analyzed 2022 National Youth Tobacco Survey data to estimate the prevalence of menthol-flavored tobacco product use among US middle and high school students who used tobacco products within the past 30 days. Characteristics associated with menthol-flavored tobacco product use were also examined.

Results

Use of menthol-flavored tobacco products was reported by 23.8% of students who currently used any tobacco product and by 39.5% of students who currently used any flavored tobacco product. Among students who reported past 30-day use of a flavored tobacco product, characteristics associated with a higher prevalence of menthol-flavored tobacco product use included non-Hispanic White race and ethnicity, frequent tobacco product use, use of multiple tobacco products, wanting to use a tobacco product within the first 30 minutes of awakening, and craving tobacco products within the past 30 days.

Conclusion

Unlike results of prior research focused on cigarette smoking among young people, prevalence of use of any menthol-flavored tobacco product was highest among non-Hispanic White youths. Any use of menthol-flavored tobacco products of any type (alone or in combination with other flavors) among young people may be associated with continued product use and symptoms of dependence.

Impact of the European Union's menthol cigarette ban on smoking cessation outcomes: longitudinal findings from the 2020-2021 ITC Netherlands Surveys

INTRODUCTION

To reduce the appeal of tobacco, the European Union (EU) banned menthol as a characterising flavour in cigarettes in May 2020. This pre/post-study evaluated the impact of the menthol ban on smoking cessation outcomes among a representative cohort of Dutch smokers.

METHODS

Adult (18+ years) smokers were recruited at wave 1 (pre-ban) of the International Tobacco Control Netherlands Surveys (February-March 2020) and followed post-ban at wave 2 (September-November 2020) and wave 3 (June-July 2021) (N=1326 participated in all three waves). Weighted bivariate, logistic regression and generalised estimating equation model analyses were conducted.

RESULTS

Usual menthol use decreased from pre-ban (7.8%) to post-ban (4.0% at wave 2 and 4.4% at wave 3) (p<0.001). Pre-ban menthol smokers had greater odds of making a post-ban quit attempt than non-menthol smokers (66.9% vs 49.6%, adjusted OR (aOR)=1.89, 95% CI: 1.13 to 3.16). Compared with pre-ban non-menthol smokers, a higher proportion of menthol smokers quit by wave 2 (17.8% vs 10.2%, p=0.025) and by wave 3 (26.1% vs 14.1%, p=0.002), although this was not significant after adjusting for other factors. Female pre-ban menthol smokers had greater odds of quitting by wave 3 than female non-menthol smokers (aOR=2.23, 95% CI: 1.10 to 4.51). Most pre-ban menthol smokers (n=99) switched to non-menthol cigarettes (40.0%) or reported that they continued to smoke menthol cigarettes (33.0%) at wave 3.

CONCLUSIONS

The EU menthol ban was effective in reducing menthol use and in increasing quit attempts and quitting among pre-ban menthol smokers. Impact could be maximised by closing gaps that allow post-ban menthol cigarette use.

It's Not Just: Evaluation of a Media Campaign to Motivate Action Around Targeting of Menthol Tobacco in Black Communities

Introduction

For more than 60 years, tobacco companies have aggressively marketed menthol tobacco products in Black communities. In 2021, New York State Department of Health-funded grantees launched a media campaign aimed toward civically engaged New York adults to educate and mobilize community action to prevent targeted marketing of menthol tobacco. This study examined audience reactions to the campaign and associations between campaign awareness and key outcomes.

Methods

Following campaign implementation, we administered 2 online, cross-sectional surveys to 2,000 civically engaged New York adults to assess campaign awareness, audience reactions, and campaign-related attitudes and behaviors. We examined sociodemographic differences in audience reactions and assessed multivariate associations between campaign awareness and key outcomes.

Results

Overall, 40% of respondents were aware of the campaign. Perceived advertisement (ad) effectiveness was higher among Black, Hispanic, and nonsmoking respondents and those aware of the campaign. Negative reactions to ads were higher at wave 1, among non-Hispanic White and male respondents, and among current smokers. Campaign awareness was positively associated with campaign-related beliefs. The association between campaign awareness and support for a menthol ban varied by survey wave and race, with positive associations at wave 2 and among non-Hispanic White respondents only. Among wave 2 respondents only, campaign awareness was positively associated with actions to reduce the targeting of menthol in Black communities.

Conclusion

Media campaigns can play an important role in raising awareness of menthol tobacco product targeting in Black communities and building public support for local and statewide menthol restrictions that may be implemented before federal product standards are in place.

Should menthol e-cigarettes be banned? Reaction of adult smokers and users of e-cigarettes to hypothetical bans

INTRODUCTION

This study examines how current smokers using menthol cigarettes or flavoured cigars, and current users of flavoured e-cigarettes may respond to three hypothetical flavour-ban scenarios: (1) banning only menthol cigarettes and flavoured cigars; (2) also banning e-cigarettes with any non-tobacco flavours except menthol; and (3) also banning e-cigarettes with any non-tobacco flavours, including menthol.

METHODS

Recruited from mTurk, respondents were asked if they would quit all tobacco-nicotine use or continue or start using products that were still legally available. The patterns of responding to each ban scenario, for both flavoured smokers and users of non-tobacco flavoured e-cigarettes, were summarised. Multinomial logistic regressions were used to estimate associations between demographics, smoking or e-cigarette use status and reactions to a ban.

RESULTS

A ban on menthol cigarettes and flavoured cigars would lead to 12%-20% of flavoured smokers trying to quit all tobacco use and 32%-52% switching to non-flavoured smoking, with the remaining switching to e-cigarettes or other products. Compared with a ban on only menthol cigarettes and flavoured cigars, also banning flavoured e-cigarettes would increase the likelihood of quitting all tobacco-nicotine use (OR=2.58) but also increase the likelihood of switching to non-flavoured smoking (OR=1.74).

CONCLUSIONS

Our results indicate that a ban on menthol cigarettes and flavoured cigars would decrease smoking. However, it is unclear if adding a ban of menthol e-cigarettes would lead to additional benefits because without menthol e-cigarettes as an alternative, some smokers and e-cigarette users may switch to non-flavoured tobacco smoking, rather than quit all tobacco use.

Addiction potential of combustible menthol cigarette alternatives: a randomised cross-over trial

INTRODUCTION

The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has issued proposed product standards banning menthol as a characterising flavour in cigarettes and cigars. The public health benefits of these product standards may be attenuated by the role of plausible substitutes in the marketplace. Therefore, the present study examined the addiction potential of plausible combustible menthol alternatives compared with usual brand menthol cigarettes (UBMC).

METHODS

Ninety-eight adult menthol cigarette smokers completed four visits, smoking their UBMC at the first session and three menthol cigarette alternatives in random order at the subsequent visits: (1) a preassembled menthol roll-your-own (mRYO) cigarette using menthol pipe tobacco and mentholated cigarette tube, (2) a menthol filtered little cigar (mFLC) and (3) a non-menthol cigarette (NMC). Measures of smoking topography, exhaled carbon monoxide (CO), craving and withdrawal, subjective effects and behavioural economic demand indices were assessed.

RESULTS

Compared with UBMC, menthol cigarette alternatives resulted in different puffing topography and CO exposure (except mRYO), and lower levels of positive subjective experience and behavioural economic demand indices. Among the alternative products, participants reported the highest level of positive subjective experience and higher demand for mRYO, compared with mFLC and NMC. Similarly, participants were significantly more likely to want to try again, purchase and use the mRYO product regularly compared with mFLC and NMC.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

mRYO cigarettes were the most highly rated cigarette alternative among study products, suggesting their potential appeal as a menthol cigarette substitute and needed inclusion of menthol pipe tobacco and cigarette tubes in FDA's proposed ban.

A randomized controlled trial of potential tobacco policies prohibiting menthol flavor in cigarettes and e-cigarettes: a study protocol

BACKGROUND

Menthol cigarette use remains a large public health problem and disproportionately affects Black adults in the United States. The Food and Drug Administration has proposed prohibiting menthol flavor in cigarettes to protect public health. However, e-cigarettes are available in menthol flavor and are a popular alternative product adults might switch to if menthol is prohibited in cigarettes. Research is needed to understand how availability of menthol (vs. tobacco) flavored e-cigarettes could impact cigarette use among adults who smoke menthol cigarettes.

METHODS

We will recruit 150 adults who currently smoke menthol cigarettes and will randomize them to 1 of 3 conditions modeling different regulatory scenarios. We will recruit equal numbers of participants identifying as Black vs. non-Black and will stratify randomization by race. To promote standardization and adherence, cigarette and e-cigarette products will be provided for 8 weeks based on the assigned condition: (A) no menthol restriction (menthol cigarette and menthol flavored e-cigarette), (B) menthol prohibited in cigarettes only (non-menthol cigarette and menthol flavored e-cigarette), (C) menthol prohibited in both cigarettes and e-cigarettes (non-menthol cigarette and tobacco flavored e-cigarette). A follow-up visit will occur at week 12 to assess tobacco use status. The study aims are to (1) examine the impact of prohibiting menthol flavor in cigarettes and e-cigarettes on smoking behavior and (2) investigate whether outcomes differ by race to understand the impact of menthol policies on Black (vs. non-Black) individuals given high rates of menthol cigarette use in this population. The primary outcome will evaluate changes in the number of cigarettes smoked per day during the 8-week study period and will examine differences by regulatory scenario. Secondary outcomes will compare percent days smoke-free, changes in nicotine dependence, and motivation, confidence, and intentions to quit smoking by the regulatory scenarios. We will examine whether changes in the outcomes differ by Black vs. non-Black participants to compare the magnitude of the effect of the various menthol policy scenarios by race.

DISCUSSION

Results will contribute critical information regarding menthol in cigarettes and e-cigarettes to inform regulatory policies that maximize reductions in cigarette smoking and reduce tobacco-related health disparities.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

NCT05259566. Yale IRB protocol #2000032211, last approved 12/8/2023.

Public health impact of a US menthol cigarette ban on the non-Hispanic black population: a simulation study

INTRODUCTION

With the US Food and Drug Administration recently proposing to implement a ban on menthol cigarettes, it is critical to estimate the potential public health effects of such a ban. With high rates of menthol cigarette use and important smoking-related health disparity implications, the impact of the ban on the non-Hispanic black (NHB) population merits strong consideration.

METHODS

We apply the previously developed Menthol Smoking and Vaping Model to the NHB population. A status quo scenario is developed using NHB-specific population, smoking and vaping initiation, cessation and death rates. Estimates from a recent expert elicitation on behavioural impacts of a menthol cigarette ban on the NHB population are used to develop a menthol ban scenario implemented in 2021. The public health impacts of the menthol ban are estimated as the difference between smoking and vaping attributable deaths (SVADs) and life years lost (LYLs) in the status quo and the menthol ban scenarios from 2021 to 2060.

RESULTS

Under the menthol ban scenario, overall smoking is projected to decline by 35.7% in 2026 and by 25.3% in 2060 relative to the status quo scenario. With these reductions, SVADs are estimated to fall by about 18.5% and LYLs by 22.1%, translating to 255 895 premature deaths averted, and 4.0 million life years gained over a 40-year period.

CONCLUSIONS

A menthol cigarette ban will substantially reduce the smoking-associated health impact on the NHB population, thereby reducing health disparities.

Smoking cessation prevalence by menthol cigarette use and select demographics among adults in the United States, TUS-CPS, 2003-2019

People who smoke menthol cigarettes, particularly those who are non-Hispanic Black/African American, are less likely to achieve successful smoking cessation compared with people who smoke non-menthol cigarettes. This study examined the 2003-2019 Tobacco Use Supplement to the Current Population Survey (TUS-CPS) harmonized data to estimate cross-sectional trends in cigarette smoking cessation among U.S. adults, stratified by menthol cigarette use, race/ethnicity, sex, and age. The analytic sample included respondents who smoked for ≥ 2 years (current users and former users who reported quitting during the past year). We tested cessation trends using orthogonal polynomial contrasts for overall, menthol, and non-menthol smoking cessation prevalence and stratified by race/ethnicity, sex, and age in logistic regression models. We also analyzed the 2018-2019 non-harmonized TUS-CPS data among recent quitters to examine differences in characteristics (e.g., demographic characteristics, smoking frequency, use of smoking cessation aids, switching to other tobacco products) by menthol cigarette use. We observed significant linear changes in prevalence trends for overall cigarette smoking cessation, menthol smoking cessation, and non-menthol smoking cessation (p < 0.0001 for all linear trends), and changes in menthol cessation among non-Hispanic White and non-Hispanic Other race/ethnicity categories during 2003-2019. In the 2018-2019 wave, we observed differences in menthol status for sex, race/ethnicity, age, and educational attainment. We did not observe differences for other characteristics. We observed changes in overall cigarette smoking cessation, menthol, and non-menthol smoking cessation prevalence during the study period; however, gains in cigarette smoking cessation were not experienced among non-Hispanic Black/African American adults who smoke.

Prevalence, perceptions and factors associated with menthol cigarette smoking: findings from the ITC Kenya and Zambia Surveys

BACKGROUND

Menthol masks the harshness of cigarette smoke, promotes youth smoking and encourages health-concerned smokers who incorrectly believe that menthols are less harmful to smoke menthols. This study of smokers in Kenya and Zambia is the first study in Africa to examine menthol use, smokers' beliefs about its harmfulness and the factors associated with menthols.

METHODS

Data were from the International Tobacco Control (ITC) Kenya Wave 2 (2018) and Zambia Wave 2 Survey (2014), involving nationally representative samples of smokers. This study focuses on 1246 adult smokers (644 in Kenya, 602 in Zambia) who reported smoking a usual brand of cigarettes (menthol or non-menthol).

RESULTS

Overall, menthol use was significantly higher among smokers in Zambia than in Kenya (48.0% vs 19.0%), females (45.6% vs 31.2% males), non-daily smokers (43.8% vs 30.0% daily) and those who exclusively smoked factory-made (FM) cigarettes (43.0% vs 15.2%). The erroneous belief that menthols are less harmful was more likely among smokers in Zambia than in Kenya (53.4% vs 29.3%) and among female smokers (38.5% vs 28.2%). In Kenya, menthol smoking was associated with being female (adjusted odds ratios (AOR)=3.07; p=0.03), worrying about future health (AOR=2.28; p=0.02) and disagreeing with the statement that smoking was calming (AOR=2.05; p=0.04). In Zambia, menthol use was associated with being female (AOR=3.91; p=0.002), completing primary school (AOR=2.14; p=0.03), being a non-daily smoker (AOR=2.29; p=0.03), exclusively using FM cigarettes (AOR=14.7; p<0.001), having a past quit attempt (AOR=1.54; p=0.02), believing that menthols are less harmful (AOR=3.80; p<0.001) and choosing menthols because they believed it was less harmful (AOR=3.52; p<0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

Menthols are highly prevalent among females in both countries. There is a need in African countries to combat the myth that menthols are less harmful and to ban menthol and other flavourings.

Using System Dynamics to Understand Transnational Corporate Power in Diet-Related Non-communicable Disease Prevention Policy-Making: A Case Study of South Africa

BACKGROUND

Complex interactions between political economy factors and corporate power are increasingly recognized to prevent transformative policy action on non-communicable disease (NCD) prevention. System science offers promising methods for analysing such causal complexity. This study uses qualitative system dynamics methods to map the political economy of diet-related NCD (DR-NCD) prevention policy-making aiming to better understand the policy inertia observed in this area globally.

METHODS

We interviewed 25 key policy actors. We analysed the interviews using purposive text analysis (PTA). We developed individual then combined casual loop diagrams to generate a shared model representing the DR-NCD prevention policy-making system. Key variables/linkages identified from the literature were also included in the model. We validated the model in several steps including through stakeholder validation interviews.

RESULTS

We identified several inter-linked feedback processes related to political economy factors that may entrench different forms of corporate power (instrumental, structural, and discursive) in DR-NCD prevention policy-making in South Africa over time. We also identified a number of feedback processes that have the potential to limit corporate power in this setting.

CONCLUSION

Using complex system methods can be useful for more deeply understanding DR-NCD policy inertia. It is also useful for identifying potential leverage points within the system which may shift the existing power dynamics to facilitate greater political commitment for healthy, equitable, and sustainable food system transformation.

Switching people who smoke to unfiltered cigarettes: perceptions, addiction and behavioural effects in a cross-over randomised controlled trial

BACKGROUND

Behavioural research is needed to inform a ban on sales of filtered cigarettes that could reduce plastic waste due to discarded filters. This study reports on differences in perceptions, nicotine dependence and behaviour among participants in a cross-over randomised trial of filtered compared with unfiltered cigarettes.

METHOD

This proof-of-concept study involved 43 people who smoke filtered cigarettes (41.9% women, mean age 36.7 years). Participants were provided 2 weeks' supply of filtered cigarettes, 2 weeks of the same brand of unfiltered cigarettes and randomly assigned to starting conditions. Measures included the Modified Cigarette Evaluation Questionnaire; single-item cigarette perception questions; Fagerström Test of Nicotine Dependence; 7-day cigarette consumption, urinary cotinine and intention to quit. Analyses included linear and ordinal repeated measures mixed-effects models and paired t-tests.

RESULTS

Filtered cigarettes were perceived as better tasting, more satisfying, more enjoyable, less aversive, less harsh, less potent and less negatively reinforcing than unfiltered cigarettes. Filtered cigarettes were smoked at a higher rate during the trial than unfiltered cigarettes (p<0.05). There was no difference in cotinine, dependence or intention to quit between filtered versus unfiltered cigarette conditions (p>0.05).

CONCLUSION

People who smoke perceived unfiltered cigarettes as having greater nicotine effects and less desirable sensory effects than filtered cigarettes, and they smoked fewer of these during the trial. Although cotinine, dependence and intention to quit were similar for smoking unfiltered and filtered cigarettes in this small trial, results suggest that banning the sale of filtered cigarettes might make smoking less attractive overall to people who smoke.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

NCT03749876.

A Longitudinal Study of Perceptions of the Massachusetts Menthol Ban and Its Impact on Smoking Behaviors among Marginalized Individuals

Menthol cigarettes have had a profound adverse effect on public health. On 1 June 2020, Massachusetts became the first state to ban the sale of menthol cigarettes. We explored how perceptions of the ban and smoking behaviors changed over time among a group of 27 individuals who smoked menthol cigarettes at our safety-net hospital. In a convergent mixed methods study, we administered questionnaires and interviews simultaneously at two timepoints: 1 month pre-ban and 6 months post-ban. Pre-ban, we assessed perceptions of the ban and anticipated smoking behaviors after the ban. Post-ban, we assessed participants' actual smoking behaviors and elicited suggestions to avoid unintended consequences that might undermine intended policy effects. Several respondents perceived the Massachusetts ban as positive because it could promote smoking cessation, prevent youth initiation, and mitigate unfair targeting of socioeconomically disadvantaged populations. Others perceived the ban as an overreach of government policy, financially motivated, and unfairly targeting the Black community. Many continued to smoke menthol cigarettes obtained outside Massachusetts. Individuals suggested promoting tobacco treatment for people affected by the ban and a national ban to circumvent out-of-state purchasing of menthol cigarettes. Our findings suggest that in order to be most effective, healthcare systems must promote tobacco treatment and ensure that treatment is accessible to all individuals affected by the ban.

Public support for policies to regulate flavoured tobacco and e-cigarette products in rural California

INTRODUCTION

Flavoured tobacco control policy exemptions and electronic cigarette products may contribute to increased youth access and tobacco use disparities.

METHODS

We assessed public support among California Central Valley residents for four policies to regulate flavoured tobacco products and e-cigarettes. The probability-based, multimode survey was conducted with English-speaking and Spanish-speaking registered voters (n=845) across 11 counties between 13 and 18 August 2020. Weighted logistic regression analyses measured odds of policy support, adjusting for predictor variables (attitudes and beliefs) and covariates.

RESULTS

The weighted sample was 50% female and predominantly Latino (30%) or non-Hispanic white (46%); 26% had a high school education or less, and 22% an annual household income

DISCUSSION

Findings add to mounting evidence of support for policies to regulate flavoured tobacco and e-cigarette products. Results on attitudes and beliefs elucidate how these factors influence support.

Collapse

Key Words

• prevention
• priority/special populations
• public opinion
• public policy

Collapse

MESH Headings

• Adolescent
• Humans
• Female
• Male
• Electronic Nicotine Delivery Systems
• Tobacco Products
• Vaping/epidemiology
• Policy
• California/epidemiology
• Flavoring Agents

Collapse

Grants

• University of California Office of the President (UCOP) Tobacco-Related Disease Research Program

Collapse

Affiliation(s)

Denise Diaz Payán Department of Public Health, University of California Merced, Merced, California, USA Nicotine & Cannabis Policy Center, University of California Merced, Merced, California, USA
Nancy J Burke Department of Public Health, University of California Merced, Merced, California, USA Nicotine & Cannabis Policy Center, University of California Merced, Merced, California, USA
Jamie Persinger American Heart Association, California, Los Angeles, California, USA
Juliette Martinez American Heart Association, California, Los Angeles, California, USA
Lisa Jones Barker American Heart Association, California, Los Angeles, California, USA
Anna V Song Department of Psychological Sciences, University of California Merced, Merced, California, USA Nicotine & Cannabis Policy Center, University of California Merced, Merced, California, USA

Collapse

Collaborators Collapse

Public health impact of a US ban on menthol in cigarettes and cigars: a simulation study

INTRODUCTION

The US Food and Drug Administration most recently announced its intention to ban menthol cigarettes and cigars nationwide in April 2021. Implementation of the ban will require evidence that it would improve public health. This paper simulates the potential public health impact of a ban on menthol in cigarettes and cigars through its impacts on smoking initiation, smoking cessation and switching to nicotine vaping products (NVPs).

METHODS

After calibrating an established US simulation model to reflect recent use trends in cigarette and NVP use, we extended the model to incorporate menthol and non-menthol cigarette use under a status quo scenario. Applying estimates from a recent expert elicitation on the behavioural impacts of a menthol ban, we developed a menthol ban scenario with the ban starting in 2021. We estimated the public health impact as the difference between smoking and vaping-attributable deaths and life-years lost in the status quo scenario and the menthol ban scenario from 2021 to 2060.

RESULTS

As a result of the ban, overall smoking was estimated to decline by 15% as early as 2026 due to menthol smokers quitting both NVP and combustible use or switching to NVPs. These transitions are projected to reduce cumulative smoking and vaping-attributable deaths from 2021 to 2060 by 5% (650 000 in total) and reduce life-years lost by 8.8% (11.3 million). Sensitivity analyses showed appreciable public health benefits across different parameter specifications.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

Our findings strongly support the implementation of a ban on menthol in cigarettes and cigars.

Invited Commentary: Mechanistic and Biologically Based Models in Epidemiology-A Powerful Underutilized Tool

Mechanistic and biologically based mathematical models of chronic and behavioral disease processes aim to capture the main mechanistic or biological features of the disease development and to connect these with epidemiologic outcomes. These approaches have a long history in epidemiologic research and are complementary to traditional epidemiologic or statistical approaches to investigate the role of risk factor exposures on disease risk. Simonetto et al. (Am J Epidemiol. 2022;191(10):1766-1775) present a mechanistic, process-oriented model to investigate the role of smoking, hypertension, and dyslipidemia in the development of atherosclerotic lesions and their progression to myocardial infarction. Their approach builds on and brings to cardiovascular disease the ideas and perspectives of earlier mechanistic and biologically based models for the epidemiology of cancer and other chronic diseases, providing important insights into the mechanisms and epidemiology of smoking related myocardial infarction. We argue that although mechanistic modeling approaches have demonstrated their value and place in epidemiology, they are highly underutilized. We call for efforts to grow mechanistic and biologically based modeling research, expertise, and awareness in epidemiology, including the development of training and collaboration opportunities to attract more students and researchers from science, technology, engineering, and medical field into the epidemiology field.

Evaluating the impact of menthol cigarette bans on cessation and smoking behaviours in Canada: longitudinal findings from the Canadian arm of the 2016-2018 ITC Four Country Smoking and Vaping Surveys

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the impact of menthol cigarette bans in seven Canadian provinces between 2016 and 2018.

METHODS

Longitudinal data from the Canadian arm of the 2016 and 2018 ITC Four Country Smoking and Vaping Survey. 1098 non-menthol and 138 menthol smokers were surveyed pre-menthol and post-menthol cigarette bans. Multivariate logistic regression models examined associations between pre-post ban changes in smoking behaviour, including differences between menthol and non-menthol smokers in quit attempts and quitting.

RESULTS

At follow-up, 59.1% of pre-ban menthol smokers switched to non-menthol cigarettes; 21.5% quit smoking and 19.5% still smoked menthols, primarily purchased from First Nations reserves. Menthol smokers were more likely than non-menthol smokers to make a quit attempt (adjusted OR (aOR)=1.61, 95% CI 1.03 to 2.51), and to remain quit (aOR=2.30, 95% CI 1.06 to 5.01). Menthol smokers did not differ significantly from non-menthol smokers in quit success (aOR=1.72, 95% CI 0.98 to 3.01); however, daily menthol smokers were more likely than daily non-menthol smokers to quit (aOR=2.21, 95% CI 1.15 to 4.24), and daily menthol smokers who quit before the ban were more likely than daily non-menthol smokers to remain quit (aOR=2.81, 95% CI 1.15 to 6.85).

CONCLUSIONS

Although menthol smokers were most likely to switch to non-menthol cigarettes, the menthol ban was also significantly associated with higher rates of quit attempts and quit success among menthol smokers compared with non-menthol smokers, and may have helped to prevent relapse among menthol smokers who had quit smoking before the ban. Results confirm and extend evaluation of Ontario's menthol ban across provinces covering 83% of the Canadian population.

Evaluating the public health impact of partial and full tobacco flavour bans: A simulation study

Background

Methods

Findings

Interpretations

Funding

Responses to potential nicotine vaping product flavor restrictions among regular vapers using non-tobacco flavors: Findings from the 2020 ITC Smoking and Vaping Survey in Canada, England and the United States

INTRODUCTION

Some jurisdictions have implemented nicotine vaping product (NVP) flavor restrictions because of concerns about rising adolescent use. However, little is known how these restrictions may impact adult vapers. This study describes the level of support and predictive behavioral responses to a hypothetical NVP ban on non-tobacco flavors among regular adult vapers who only use flavors that would be banned.

METHODS

Data came from 851 regular vapers (all current or ex-smokers) participating in the 2020 ITC Four Country Smoking and Vaping Survey in Canada, England, and the United States (US). A random sample of respondents in each country received and completed the questions about flavor bans: (1) do you support or oppose a ban on all non-tobacco flavors; and (2) what would you do if all flavors were banned, with the exception of tobacco in the US, and tobacco and menthol in Canada and England. Those who used tobacco-flavored or unflavored NVPs were excluded from all analyses, and additionally, vapers of menthol flavor in Canada and England were excluded from Aim 2.

RESULTS

Overall, 53.6% of vapers were strongly opposed to flavor bans, 28.2% were opposed, 9.3% were in support, 3.6% were in strong support, and 5.2% did not know. Predicted behavioral responses were: 28.8% would continue vaping an available flavor, 28.3% would find a way to get their banned flavor(s), 17.1% would stop vaping and smoke instead, 12.9% said that they would stop vaping and not smoke, and 12.9% do not know what they would do. Responses to a potential flavor ban largely varied by smoking and vaping status, and by the level of support of a flavor restriction policy.

CONCLUSIONS

At this time, it is not clear what net population-level consequences would occur if non-tobacco flavored NVPs were prohibited. While a majority of vapers in this study opposed this policy, and many vapers would not be willing to switch to available flavors, there was considerable variability in predicted behavioral responses.

Fresh Take: Pitfalls of the FDA's Proposed Menthol Ban

In April 2021, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration announced its intention to ban menthol flavoring in cigarettes and cigars. The Agency's decision was based in part on the disproportionate impact of menthol flavoring in Black communities.

Examining Menthol Preference as a Correlate of Change in Cigarette Smoking Behavior over a One-Year Period

Menthol cigarette use has been shown to be a contributing factor in the changes in smoking over time among youth. The current study aim was to use prospective survey data to identify if menthol cigarette use was associated with changes in smoking among adults. A representative cohort from the 2010 U.S. Tobacco Use Supplement to the Current Population Survey was interviewed at two time points one year apart. Respondents were past-30-day cigarette smokers at Wave 1 or Wave 2 categorized by menthol vs. non-menthol flavor preference (n = 3668). Trajectories were categorized as maintained, increased, or decreased smoking behavior between Waves. Multinomial logistic regressions examined if menthol cigarette use was associated with an increase/decrease in smoking behavior, adjusting for age, race/ethnicity, and sex. Menthol cigarette use was not associated with change over time in cigarette smoking in adult smokers. Age, race/ethnicity and sex were associated with changes in cigarette smoking. Young (vs. older) adults were more likely to increase smoking. Black and Hispanic smokers (vs. white smokers) were more likely to report any change in smoking. Males were less likely than females to change smoking behavior. Menthol status was not associated with changes in smoking among adults; however, young age, race/ethnicity, and sex were, suggesting populations to target for intervention.

Consequences of a match made in hell: the harm caused by menthol smoking to the African American population over 1980-2018

BACKGROUND

For many years, national surveys have shown a consistently disproportionately high prevalence of menthol smokers among African Americans compared with the general population. However, to our knowledge, no prior study has quantified the harm that menthol smoking has caused on that population. In this work, we estimate the public health harm that menthol cigarettes have caused to the African American community over the last four decades.

METHODS

Using National Health Interview Survey data, we employed a well-established simulation model to reproduce the observed smoking trajectory over 1980-2018 in the African American population. Then, we repeat the experiment, removing the effects of menthol on the smoking initiation and cessation rates over that period, obtaining a new hypothetical smoking trajectory. Finally, we compared both scenarios to calculate the public health harm attributable to menthol cigarettes over 1980-2018.

RESULTS

Our results show that menthol cigarettes were responsible for 1.5 million new smokers, 157 000 smoking-related premature deaths and 1.5 million life-years lost among African Americans over 1980-2018. While African Americans constitute 12% of the total US population, these figures represent, respectively, a staggering 15%, 41% and 50% of the total menthol-related harm.

DISCUSSION

Our results show that menthol cigarettes disproportionally harmed African Americans significantly over the last 38 years and are responsible for exacerbating health disparities among that population. Removing menthol cigarettes from the market would benefit the overall US population but, particularly, the African American community.

Reactions to sales restrictions on flavored vape products or all vape products among young adults in the US

SIGNIFICANCE

Despite increases in e-cigarette sales restrictions, support for sales restrictions and perceived impact on young adult use are unclear.

METHODS

We analyzed Feb-May 2020 data from a longitudinal study of 2,159 young adults (ages 18-34; Mage=24.75±4.71; n=550 past 30-day e-cigarette users) in 6 metropolitan areas (Atlanta, Boston, Minneapolis, Oklahoma City, San Diego, Seattle). We examined support for e-cigarette sales restrictions and - among e-cigarette users - perceived impact of flavored vape product and all vape product sales restrictions on e-cigarette and cigarette use (and potential correlates; i.e., e-cigarette/tobacco use, use-related symptoms/health concerns).

RESULTS

24.2% of e-cigarette users (and 57.6% of non-users) supported (strongly/somewhat) sales restrictions on flavored vape products; 15.1% of e-cigarette users (45.1% of non-users) supported complete vape product sales restrictions. If restricted to tobacco flavors, 39.1% of e-cigarette users reported being likely (very/somewhat) to continue using e-cigarettes (30.5% not at all likely); 33.2% were likely to switch to cigarettes (45.5% not at all). Considering complete vape product sales restrictions, equal numbers (~39%) were likely vs. not at all likely to switch to cigarettes. Greater policy support correlated with being e-cigarette non-users (aR 2=.210); among users, correlates included fewer days of use and greater symptoms and health concerns (aR 2=.393). If such restrictions were implemented, those less likely to report continuing to vape or switching to cigarettes used e-cigarettes on fewer days, were never-smokers, and indicated greater health concern (aR 2=.361).

CONCLUSIONS

While lower-risk users may be more positively impacted by such policies, other young adult user subgroups may not experience benefit.

IMPLICATIONS

Young adult e-cigarette users indicate low support for e-cigarette sales restrictions (both for flavored products and complete restrictions). Moreover, if vape product sales were restricted to tobacco flavors, 39.1% of users reported being likely to continue using e-cigarettes but 33.2% were likely to switch to cigarettes. If vape product sales were entirely restricted, e-cigarette users were equally likely to switch to cigarettes versus not (~40%). Those most likely to report positive impact of such policies being implemented were less frequent users, never-smokers, and those with greater e-cigarette-related health concerns. This research should be considered in future tobacco control initiatives.

Trends in prevalence and sociodemographic and geographic patterns of current menthol cigarette use among U.S. adults, 2005-2015

Despite overall reductions in U.S. smoking prevalence, prior evidence suggests similar reductions may not have occurred for menthol cigarette users. This study examines nationally representative current menthol and non-menthol cigarette use prevalence and trends for adults (18+) overall and by sociodemographic and geographic characteristics using the 2005 (n = 31,132), 2010 (n = 26,967), and 2015 (n = 33,541) National Health Interview Survey. Between 2005 and 2015, non-menthol cigarette use decreased overall (14.7% to 9.6%, p < 0.001) and within all sociodemographic and geographic subgroups analyzed (i.e., by sex, age, race/ethnicity, sexual orientation, education, family income, and geographic region), except non-Hispanic American Indians/Alaskan Natives (NH AI/AN) and non-Hispanic Others. Menthol cigarette use significantly decreased overall (5.3% to 4.4%, p < 0.001), and among females (5.6% to 4.6%); participants aged 18-24 (7.1% to 4.3%) and 35-54 (6.2% to 4.9%); non-Hispanic Whites (4.1% to 3.6%) and non-Hispanic Blacks (14.8% to 11.9%); participants with high school degrees/GEDs (7.0% to 5.9%); participants with a family income of $75,000 or higher (3.4% to 2.3%); and participants residing in the Northeast (6.0% to 4.3%). Menthol cigarette use remained stable or did not significantly decrease among males; adults aged 25-34 and 55 years and older; NH AI/ANs, NH Others, and Hispanics; participants with less than high school education, some college, or a college degree; participants with a family income below $75,000; and participants residing in the North Central/Midwest, South, and West. Given that menthol cigarette use did not significantly change or decrease for multiple subgroups, further restriction on menthol manufacturing may help reduce tobacco use disparities.

E-cigarette regulation: a delicate balance for public health

To address youth vaping, a regulatory strategy is required that includes removal of flavors from all tobacco products, closing the cartridge loophole, and an e-cigarette liquid product standard that decreases palatability to naïve users. Lawmakers, public health officials, and scientists need to collaborate, utilizing evidence-based approaches, to rigorously evaluate tobacco regulation policy.

National Support for a Menthol Cigarette Sales Ban

OBJECTIVES

The US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and local jurisdictions have different authorities to regulate menthol cigarettes, and a growing number of localities and the FDA are considering these policy options. The objective of this study was to update previous research on public support for a menthol ban, including examining differences in support by demographic factors, geographic region, and smoking status.

METHODS

We assessed policy support among a cross-sectional sample of 2871 adults aged 18-64 from a nationally representative online panel. We calculated weighted estimates of support by demographic factors, political ideology, region (Northeast, Midwest, South, West), and smoking status (never, former, current nonmenthol, current menthol). We used weighted adjusted logistic regression analysis to examine correlates of support for a menthol ban.

RESULTS

Overall, 56.4% (95% CI, 54.4%-58.3%) of participants supported a government policy to ban menthol cigarette sales. Support was significantly higher among women than among men (62.5% vs 50.1%; P < .001); among Hispanic/Latino (69.3%), non-Hispanic African American (60.5%), and non-Hispanic other (65.8%) people than among non-Hispanic White people (50.4%; P < .001); and among never (64.8%) and former (47.0%) smokers than among current nonmenthol cigarette smokers (30.1%; P < .001). A significant proportion (28.5%; P < .001) of current menthol cigarette smokers supported a ban. After controlling for other factors, geographic region was not significantly associated with support for a ban.

CONCLUSIONS

Efforts are needed to further increase support for a ban among current menthol cigarette smokers. These findings can be used to assist policy makers and communities in efforts to ban menthol cigarettes in their jurisdictions.

The actual and anticipated effects of a menthol cigarette ban: a scoping review

BACKGROUND

The United States (US) Food and Drug Administration (FDA), under the 2009 Family Smoking Prevention and Tobacco Control Act, banned characterizing flavors in cigarettes; however, mentholated tobacco products were exempt. Since 2009, over 20 US jurisdictions and numerous countries around the world have extended this restriction to menthol. Currently, the FDA is reconsidering its position on a nation-wide menthol cigarette ban. However, the effects of such a ban remain unclear. We conducted a scoping review to explore the impact of a menthol cigarette ban on individual behaviors (initiation, cessation, and product switching), sales, and compliance.

METHODS

We conducted a search of the international literature using PubMed, EBSCO, and Web of Science (to November 25, 2019). We retrieved articles relevant to the impacts of an implemented or hypothetical menthol ban. We also included studies of flavored tobacco product bans due to their potential relevance in gauging compliance and product substitutability.

RESULTS

The search identified 493 articles, of which 24 were included. Studies examined the effects of implemented menthol bans (n = 6), hypothetical menthol bans (n = 12) and implemented flavor bans that exclude menthol (n = 6). Menthol bans were found to reduce sales and increase smoking cessation with only partial substitution for non-menthol cigarettes. US smokers' reactions to a hypothetical ban indicate that about 25-64% would attempt to quit smoking and 11-46% would consider switching to other tobacco products, including 15-30% to e-cigarettes. Flavor ban studies indicate reductions in initiation of 6%. Ban compliance was high, but studies indicate that the tobacco industry and retailers have attempted to circumvent their impact via packaging changes and online sales.

CONCLUSION

Our review finds that extending the US cigarette flavor ban to menthol products would promote smoking cessation and reduce initiation. This evidence supports further action by the FDA towards mentholated tobacco products. However, few studies have been conducted in the vaping era.

The impact of a comprehensive tobacco product flavor ban in San Francisco among young adults

OBJECTIVE

Flavors play an important role in the initiation and use of tobacco products. The FDA, states, and cities have been implementing or considering banning flavored e-cigarettes or any flavored tobacco products. This study empirically assessed the impact of one of the first comprehensive bans of all flavored tobacco products other than tobacco-flavored e-cigarettes among young adults in San Francisco, California.

METHODS

Using Amazon Mechanical Turk, a sample of San Francisco residents aged 18-34 who previously used tobacco products (N = 247) were surveyed about their tobacco use both before and after the ban. Descriptive statistics and regression models were applied.

RESULTS

The prevalence of overall flavored tobacco use decreased from 81% and 85% to 69% and 76% for 18-24 years and 25-34 years old, respectively. The prevalence of flavored e-cigarettes decreased from 57% and 56% to 45% and 48% for 18-24 years and 25-34 years old, respectively. The prevalence of cigars uses reduced as well. However, cigarette smoking increased, although not statistically significant among 25-34 years old. 66% of participants did not support the ban and 65% believed the ban had not been enforced completely. Most users reported being able to obtain flavored tobacco products in multiple ways despite the ban.

CONCLUSIONS

These findings suggest that comprehensive local flavor bans, by themselves, cannot sharply reduce the availability or use of flavored tobacco products among residents. Nevertheless, local bans can still significantly reduce overall e-cigarette use and cigar smoking but may increase cigarette smoking.

Perceptions of Use Patterns and Health Consequences Associated With Mentholated Cigarettes Among U.S. Adults

Despite declines in overall cigarette smoking in the United States, menthol cigarette smoking prevalence has increased among young adults (18-25 years) and remains constant among older adults (26 years and older). Disparities in menthol cigarette use exist, with higher prevalence among younger adult smokers and among racial/ethnic minority populations. Menthol in cigarettes has been shown to play a role in increasing smoking initiation and making it more difficult to quit smoking. Little research focuses on perceptions of the addictive potential and health consequences of menthol cigarette use. This analysis uses data from a national panel of U.S. adults (n = 1,303) surveyed in 2016. Participants were asked to what extent they agreed with various statements regarding menthol use among demographic and tobacco use subgroups. These data reveal disparities in perceptions of the impact of menthol use, with Black, non-Hispanic, and Hispanic adults and adults with lower income and less education misperceiving the health effects and addiction potential of menthol in cigarettes. Determining how and to what extent population subgroups understand the effect of menthol cigarette use can inform public education strategies and, in turn, policy efforts to ban or restrict menthol cigarette availability.

The Minnesota SimSmoke Tobacco Control Policy Model of Smokeless Tobacco and Cigarette Use

INTRODUCTION

A previous Minnesota SimSmoke tobacco control policy model is extended to more recent years and to include smokeless tobacco use.

METHODS

Using data from the 1993 Tobacco Use Supplement and information on state policies, the Minnesota SimSmoke model was updated and extended to incorporate smokeless tobacco (both exclusive and dual use) and smokeless tobacco-attributable deaths. The model was then validated against the 2002, 2006/2007, and 2014/2015 Tobacco Use Supplement and the 1999, 2007, 2014, and 2018 Minnesota Adult Tobacco Survey and used to estimate the impact of policies implemented between 1993 and 2018. Analysis was conducted in April 2019.

RESULTS

The model validated well for cigarette and earlier smokeless tobacco use, but it predicted smokeless tobacco use less well in recent years. The model projected that male (female) smoking prevalence was 35% (36%) lower in relative terms by 2018 and 43% (44%) lower by 2040 owing to policies, with lesser reductions projected for male smokeless tobacco use. Tobacco-attributable deaths were reduced by 7,800 by 2018 and 46,900 by 2040. Price increases, primarily through taxes, were projected to have had the greatest impact on cigarette use followed by smoke-free air laws, cessation treatment policies, tobacco control campaign expenditures, and youth access enforcement. Similar effects were projected for smokeless tobacco use, except that smoke-free air laws had smaller effects.

CONCLUSIONS

As cigarettes remain the dominant form of nicotine delivery product, cigarette-oriented policies may be an effective means of reducing the use of all nicotine delivery products. However, noncigarette-oriented policies may also play an important role.

Situation, Impacts, and Future Challenges of Tobacco Control Policies for Youth: An Explorative Systematic Policy Review

Background: Tobacco use in youths is a major public health challenge globally, and approaches to the challenge have not been sufficiently addressed. The existing policies for tobacco control are not well specified by age. Objective: Our study aims to systematically investigate existing tobacco control policies, potential impacts, and national and international challenges to control tobacco use targeting the youth. Data sources: We used the statistics of the Global Youth Tobacco Survey (GYTS), studies, and approaches of tobacco control policies targeting youth. Considering country, continent, age, and significance, PubMed, Health Inter-Network Access to Research Initiative (HINARI), Scopus, the Cochrane Library, Google, and Google Scholar were searched. The related keywords were tobacco control, youth, smoking, smoking reduction policies, prevalence of tobacco use in youth, classification of tobacco control policies, incentives to prevent young people from using tobacco, WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (FTCT), etc. The search strategy was by timeline, specific and popular policies, reliability, significance, and applicability. Results: We found 122 studies related to this topic. There were 25 studies focusing on situation, significance, and theoretical aspects of tobacco control policies associated with youth; 41 studies on national population polices and challenges; and 7 studies for global challenges to overcome the youth tobacco epidemic. All national policies have been guided by WHO-MPOWER strategies. Increases in tobacco tax, warning signs on packaging, restriction of tobacco product advertisements, national law to discourage young people, and peer-based approaches to quit tobacco are popular policies. Smuggling of tobacco products by youth and ignorance of smokeless tobacco control approach are major challenges. Limitation: Our study was flexible for the standard age of youth and we were not able to include all countries in the world and most of the studies focused on smoking control rather than all smokeless tobaccos. Conclusion: The policies of tobacco control adopted by many countries are based on the WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control but not necessarily focused on youth. Due to the physical and economic burden of tobacco consumption by youth, this is a high priority that needs to be addressed. Youth-focused creative policies are necessary, and more priority must be given to tobacco prevention in youth. Tobacco control should be a social, public health, and quality-of-life concern rather than a business and trade issue. Implication of key findings: There is limited research on how and in what ways tobacco control policies reach young people and their engagement with these policies from physical, physiological, and psychological aspects. Analysis of these aspects, popular polices practiced in different countries, and creative strategies support the need to review current practices and future ways to discourage youth from tobacco use.

In Their Own Words: Young Adults' Menthol Cigarette Initiation, Perceptions, Experiences and Regulation Perspectives

Background

Menthol cigarettes are disproportionately used by young people and have been called smoking starter products. However, limited qualitative research exists on young adults' perceptions of and experiences with these products, with much of it based on document reviews of the tobacco industry's research.

Methods

We conducted six focus groups with young adult (ages 18-24) menthol smokers in New Jersey (half with black smokers) between December 2014 and March 2015. Participants were asked open-ended questions about their menthol smoking initiation, preference reasons, substitution behaviors, and perceptions of menthol cigarette risks and regulation.

Results

Participants' menthol cigarette initiation and preference were influenced by their perceived popularity, brand recognition, taste, smoothness, satisfaction and access (including as "loosies," typically available for Newport). Some believed menthol cigarettes were less harmful than non-menthol cigarettes when initiating smoking. Many currently believed menthol cigarettes were more harmful because they contained extra "additives," were stronger (ie, requiring fewer cigarettes to feel satisfied), and/or based on hearsay. Many had tried new brand Camel Crush, which was perceived to be especially minty, fun, and attractive for newer smokers. While some used non-menthol cigarettes when menthols were unavailable, many said they would never or almost never substitute. Many acknowledged a menthol cigarettes ban would likely help them quit smoking, even though they did not support the idea.

Conclusions

Menthol cigarette initiation is influenced by an interplay of multiple factors including their sensory properties, marketing, perceived popularity and availability. The FDA should continue to pursue closing this flavored cigarette loophole.

Implications

In this first qualitative study of menthol cigarette use among young adults, we found further evidence that menthol cigarettes can act as starter products because they are perceived as easier to smoke and taste and smell better than non-menthol cigarettes. We also add to the literature in finding that menthol cigarettes are perceived by young people who smoke menthol cigarettes as delivering satisfaction with fewer cigarettes, being accessible as "loosies", and being popular among their peers. Many did not understand the reasons behind a potential menthol ban. Any future regulation of menthol cigarettes should include a public educational campaign to support buy-in.

Longitudinal Response to Restrictions on Menthol Cigarettes Among Young Adult US Menthol Smokers, 2011-2016

Objectives. To examine responses to hypothetical restrictions on menthol cigarettes among young adult menthol smokers in the United States.Methods. We surveyed Truth Initiative Young Adult Cohort respondents 18 to 34 years of age every 6 months from December 2011 through October 2016. Menthol cigarette smokers (n = 806, n = 1963 observations) indicated their response if menthol cigarettes were unavailable. Weighted analyses accounting for repeated measures were used to estimate the prevalence and correlates of responses and trends over time.Results. Overall, 23.5% of young adult menthol smokers said they would quit if menthol cigarettes were unavailable, with this response largely unchanged between 2011 and 2016. There was a significant increase in the switch to another tobacco product response (from 7.4% to 13.2%; P = .01) associated with current noncigarette use. In adjusted analyses, African Americans, women, those with less than a high school education, and those with any quit intention were more likely to say they would quit smoking.Conclusions. Increased intentions to switch products suggest the acceptability and availability of alternatives to menthol cigarette smokers. Menthol cigarette restrictions benefit vulnerable groups and those interested in quitting, but the availability of menthol in noncigarette products could limit benefits.

Ban on menthol-flavoured tobacco products predicts cigarette cessation at 1 year: a population cohort study

OBJECTIVES

The province of Ontario, Canada, banned the use of menthol-flavoured tobacco products as of 1 January 2017. The long-term impact of a menthol ban on smoking behaviour has not been previously evaluated.

METHODS

Population cohort study with baseline survey conducted September-December 2016 and follow-up January-August 2018 among residents of Ontario, Canada, 16 years old and over who reported current smoking (past 30 days) at baseline survey and completed follow-up (n=913) including 187 reporting smoking menthol cigarettes daily, 420 reported smoking menthol cigarettes occasionally, and 306 were non-menthol cigarette smokers. Relative rates of making a quit attempt and being a non-smoker at follow-up were estimated with Poisson regression controlling for smoking and demographic characteristics at baseline.

RESULTS

At follow-up, 63% of daily menthol smokers reported making a quit attempt since the ban compared with 62% of occasional menthol smokers and 43% of non-menthol smokers (adjusted relative rate (ARR) for daily menthol smokers compared with non-menthol smokers: 1.25; 95% CI 1.03 to 1.50). At follow-up, 24% of daily menthol smokers reported making a quit since the ban compared with 20% of occasional menthol smokers and 14% of non-menthol smokers (ARR for daily menthol smokers compared with non-menthol smokers: 1.62; 95% CI 1.08 to 2.42).

CONCLUSIONS

The study found higher rates of quitting among daily and occasional menthol smokers in Ontario 1 year after the implementation of a menthol ban compared with non-menthol smokers. Our findings suggest that restrictions on menthol may lead to substantial improvements in public health.

Disparities in retail marketing for menthol cigarettes in the United States, 2015

This study describes retail marketing for menthol cigarettes and its relationship with neighborhood demographics in a national sample of tobacco retailers in the United States. Mixed-effects models were used to examine three outcomes: menthol cigarette exterior advertising, menthol cigarette price promotions, and the pack price of menthol and non-menthol cigarettes. Thirty-eight percent of retailers displayed at least one menthol advertisement on the store exterior and 69% advertised price promotions. Retail advertising was more common in neighborhoods in the second (OR = 1.5 [1.1, 2.0]) and fourth (OR = 1.9 [1.3, 2.7]) quartiles of Black residents as compared to the lowest quartile. Menthol advertising was more prevalent in the third (OR = 1.4 [1.0, 1.9]) and lowest (OR = 1.6 [1.2, 2.2]) income quartiles as compared to the highest quartile. Price promotions for Newport were more common in neighborhoods with the highest quartile of Black residents (OR = 1.8 [1.2, 2.7]). Prices of Newport were cheaper in neighborhoods with the highest quartiles of youth, Black residents, and lower-income households. Policies that restrict the sales and marketing of menthol cigarettes are needed to address disparities.

Should flavours be banned in cigarettes and e-cigarettes? Evidence on adult smokers and recent quitters from a discrete choice experiment

OBJECTIVES

To provide the policy-relevant estimates of impacts of alternative flavour bans on preferences and demand for cigarettes and e-cigarettes in adult smokers and recent quitters.

METHODS

A best-best discrete choice experiment (DCE) is used to elicit smokers' and recent quitters' preferences for flavours, price, health impact and nicotine level in cigarettes and e-cigarettes. Choice of tobacco products and an opt-out option were examined. An efficient design yielded 36 choice sets. Exploded logit choice models were estimated. Flavour bans are modelled by restricting flavour coefficients in the estimated model.

SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS

A sample of 2031 adult smokers and recent quitters was recruited to complete an online survey and DCE.

RESULTS

Current smokers and recent quitters, on average, prefer cigarettes and menthol cigarettes over flavoured e-cigarettes. However, there is substantial preference heterogeneity by younger adults (ages 18-25), race/ethnicity and respondents with higher education. Our predictions suggest that a ban on menthol cigarettes would produce the greatest reduction in the choice of cigarettes (-5.2%), but with an accompanying increase in e-cigarettes use (3.8%). In contrast, banning flavours in e-cigarettes, while allowing menthol in cigarettes would result in the greatest increase in the selection of cigarettes (8.3%), and a decline in the use of e-cigarettes (-11.1%). A ban on all flavours, but tobacco in both products would increase 'opting-out' the most (5.2%) but would also increase choice of cigarettes (2.7%) and decrease choice of e-cigarettes (-7.9%).

CONCLUSIONS

A ban on flavoured e-cigarettes alone would likely increase the choice of cigarettes in smokers, arguably the more harmful way of obtaining nicotine, whereas a ban on menthol cigarettes alone would likely be more effective in reducing the choice of cigarettes. A ban on all flavours in both products would likely reduce the smoking/vaping rates, but the use of cigarettes would be higher than in the status quo. Policy-makers should use these results to guide the choice of flavour bans in light of their stance on the potential health impacts both products.

Projecting the effects of tobacco control policies in the USA through microsimulation: a study protocol

INTRODUCTION

Smoking remains the leading cause of preventable death in the USA but can be reduced through policy interventions. Computational models of smoking can provide estimates of the projected impact of tobacco control policies and can be used to inform public health decision making. We outline a protocol for simulating the effects of tobacco policies on population health outcomes.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

We extend the Smoking History Generator (SHG), a microsimulation model based on data from the National Health Interview Surveys, to evaluate the effects of tobacco control policies on projections of smoking prevalence and mortality in the USA. The SHG simulates individual life trajectories including smoking initiation, cessation and mortality. We illustrate the application of the SHG policy module for four types of tobacco control policies at the national and state levels: smoke-free air laws, cigarette taxes, increasing tobacco control programme expenditures and raising the minimum age of legal access to tobacco. Smoking initiation and cessation rates are modified by age, birth cohort, gender and years since policy implementation. Initiation and cessation rate modifiers are adjusted for differences across age groups and the level of existing policy coverage. Smoking prevalence, the number of population deaths avoided, and life-years gained are calculated for each policy scenario at the national and state levels. The model only considers direct individual benefits through reduced smoking and does not consider benefits through reduced exposure to secondhand smoke.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

A web-based interface is being developed to integrate the results of the simulations into a format that allows the user to explore the projected effects of tobacco control policies in the USA. Usability testing is being conducted in which experts provide feedback on the interface. Development of this tool is under way, and a publicly accessible website is available at http://www.tobaccopolicyeffects.org.

The Effect of Tobacco Control Policies on US Smokeless Tobacco Use: A Structured Review

INTRODUCTION

Tobacco use has shifted increasingly from cigarettes to other products. While the focus has been mostly on cigarette-oriented policies, it is important to gauge the effects of policies targeting other products. We review and critique the literature on how policies affect smokeless tobacco (ST).

METHODS

We conducted a search of the literature on tobacco control policies as they relate to ST use, focusing on tobacco taxes, smoke-free air laws, media campaigns, advertising restrictions, health warnings, cessation treatment policies, and youth access policies. Findings from 78 total studies are summarized.

RESULTS

ST taxes, media campaigns, health warnings, and cessation treatment policies were found to be effective tools in reducing ST use. Evidence on the effects of current youth access policies is less strong. Studies have not yet been conducted on marketing or product content restrictions, but the literature indicates that product marketing, through advertising, packaging, flavorings, and extension of cigarette brands, plays an important role in ST use.

CONCLUSIONS

Although the evidence base is less established for ST policies than for cigarette policies, the existing literature indicates ST use responds to tobacco control policies. Policies should be structured in a way that aims to reduce all tobacco use while at the same time increasing the likelihood that continuing tobacco users use the least risky products.

IMPLICATIONS

Studies find that policies targeting smoking and policies targeting smokeless products affect smokeless use, but studies are needed to examine the effect of policies on the transitions between cigarette and smokeless use.

Computational Models Used to Assess US Tobacco Control Policies

INTRODUCTION

Simulation models can be used to evaluate existing and potential tobacco control interventions, including policies. The purpose of this systematic review was to synthesize evidence from computational models used to project population-level effects of tobacco control interventions. We provide recommendations to strengthen simulation models that evaluate tobacco control interventions.

METHODS

Studies were eligible for review if they employed a computational model to predict the expected effects of a non-clinical US-based tobacco control intervention. We searched five electronic databases on July 1, 2013 with no date restrictions and synthesized studies qualitatively.

RESULTS

Six primary non-clinical intervention types were examined across the 40 studies: taxation, youth prevention, smoke-free policies, mass media campaigns, marketing/advertising restrictions, and product regulation. Simulation models demonstrated the independent and combined effects of these interventions on decreasing projected future smoking prevalence. Taxation effects were the most robust, as studies examining other interventions exhibited substantial heterogeneity with regard to the outcomes and specific policies examined across models.

CONCLUSIONS

Models should project the impact of interventions on overall tobacco use, including nicotine delivery product use, to estimate preventable health and cost-saving outcomes. Model validation, transparency, more sophisticated models, and modeling policy interactions are also needed to inform policymakers to make decisions that will minimize harm and maximize health.

IMPLICATIONS

In this systematic review, evidence from multiple studies demonstrated the independent effect of taxation on decreasing future smoking prevalence, and models for other tobacco control interventions showed that these strategies are expected to decrease smoking, benefit population health, and are reasonable to implement from a cost perspective. Our recommendations aim to help policymakers and researchers minimize harm and maximize overall population-level health benefits by considering the real-world context in which tobacco control interventions are implemented.

Potential deaths averted in USA by replacing cigarettes with e-cigarettes

Introduction

US tobacco control policies to reduce cigarette use have been effective, but their impact has been relatively slow. This study considers a strategy of switching cigarette smokers to e-cigarette use (‘vaping’) in the USA to accelerate tobacco control progress.

Methods

A Status Quo Scenario, developed to project smoking rates and health outcomes in the absence of vaping, is compared with Substitution models, whereby cigarette use is largely replaced by vaping over a 10-year period. We test an Optimistic and a Pessimistic Scenario, differing in terms of the relative harms of e-cigarettes compared with cigarettes and the impact on overall initiation, cessation and switching. Projected mortality outcomes by age and sex under the Status Quo and E-Cigarette Substitution Scenarios are compared from 2016 to 2100 to determine public health impacts.

Findings

Compared with the Status Quo, replacement of cigarette by e-cigarette use over a 10-year period yields 6.6 million fewer premature deaths with 86.7 million fewer life years lost in the Optimistic Scenario. Under the Pessimistic Scenario, 1.6 million premature deaths are averted with 20.8 million fewer life years lost. The largest gains are among younger cohorts, with a 0.5 gain in average life expectancy projected for the age 15 years cohort in 2016.

Conclusions

The tobacco control community has been divided regarding the role of e-cigarettes in tobacco control. Our projections show that a strategy of replacing cigarette smoking with vaping would yield substantial life year gains, even under pessimistic assumptions regarding cessation, initiation and relative harm.

A system dynamics modelling approach to assess the impact of launching a new nicotine product on population health outcomes

In 2012 the US FDA suggested the use of mathematical models to assess the impact of releasing new nicotine or tobacco products on population health outcomes. A model based on system dynamics methodology was developed to project the potential effects of a new nicotine product at a population level. A model representing traditional smoking populations (never, current and former smokers) and calibrated using historical data was extended to a two-product model by including electronic cigarettes use statuses. Smoking mechanisms, such as product initiation, switching, transition to dual use, and cessation, were represented as flows between smoking statuses (stocks) and the potential effect of smoking renormalisation through a feedback system. Mortality over a 50-year period (2000-2050) was the health outcome of interest, and was compared between two scenarios, with and without e-cigarettes being introduced. The results suggest that by 2050, smoking prevalence in adults was 12.4% in the core model and 9.7% (including dual users) in the counterfactual. Smoking-related mortality was 8.4% and 8.1%, respectively. The results suggested an overall beneficial effect from launching e-cigarettes and that system dynamics could be a useful approach to assess the potential population health effects of nicotine products when epidemiological data are not available.