Information and behavioral responses during a pandemic: Evidence from delays in Covid-19 death reports

Pandemic responsiveness: Evidence from social distancing and lockdown policy during COVID-19

We study changes in social distancing and government policy in response to local outbreaks during the COVID-19 pandemic. Using aggregated county-level data from approximately 20 million smartphones in the United States, we show that social distancing behaviors have responded to local outbreaks: a 1% increase in new cases (deaths) is associated with a 3% (11%) increase in social distancing intensity. Responsiveness is reinforced by the presence of public measures restricting movements, but remains significant in their absence. Responsiveness is higher in high-income, more educated, or Democrat-leaning counties, and in counties with low health insurance coverage. By contrast, social capital and vulnerability to infection are strongly associated with more social distancing but not with more responsiveness. Our results point to the importance of politics, trust and reciprocity for compliance with social distancing, while material constraints are more critical for being responsive to new risks such as the emergence of variants.

County-level estimates of excess mortality associated with COVID-19 in the United States

The COVID-19 pandemic in the U.S. has been largely monitored using death certificates containing reference to COVID-19. However, prior analyses reveal that a significant percentage of excess deaths associated with the pandemic were not directly assigned to COVID-19. In this study, we estimated a generalized linear model of expected mortality based on historical trends in deaths by county of residence between 2011 and 2019. We used the results of the model to generate estimates of excess mortality and excess deaths not assigned to COVID-19 in 2020 for 1470 county sets in the U.S. representing 3138 counties. Across the country, we estimated that 438,386 excess deaths occurred in 2020, among which 87.5% were assigned to COVID-19. Some regions (Mideast, Great Lakes, New England, and Far West) reported the most excess deaths in large central metros, whereas other regions (Southwest, Southeast, Plains, and Rocky Mountains) reported the highest excess mortality in nonmetro areas. The proportion assigned to COVID-19 was lowest in large central metro areas (79.3%). Regionally, the proportion of excess deaths assigned to COVID-19 was lowest in the Southeast (81.6%), Southwest (82.6%), Far West (83.7%), and Rocky Mountains (86.7%). Across the regions, the number of excess deaths exceeded the number of directly assigned COVID-19 deaths in most counties. The exception to this pattern occurred in New England, which reported more directly assigned COVID-19 deaths than excess deaths in metro and nonmetro areas. Many county sets had substantial numbers of excess deaths that were not accounted for in direct COVID-19 death counts. Estimates of excess mortality at the local level can inform the allocation of resources to areas most impacted by the pandemic and contribute to positive behavior feedback loops, such as increases in mask-wearing and vaccine uptake.

Predictors of attitudes and adherence to COVID-19 public health guidelines in Western countries: a rapid review of the emerging literature

BACKGROUND

Physical distancing, wearing face masks and hand hygiene are evidence-based methods to protect the public from coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) infection. There has been a proliferation of research examining characteristics that can be targeted by public health interventions. This rapid review sought to identify predictors of attitudes toward and adherence to COVID-19 public health guidelines, and identify interventions aiming to improve adherence.

METHODS

Articles were retrieved from multiple databases (e.g. MEDLINE, CINAHL and medRxiv) on 6 August 2020. Studies were limited to samples collected from Western countries. Studies were classified according to the types of factor (s) examined as independent variables. The consistency of evidence for each factor was scored by two reviewers.

RESULTS

In total, 1323 unique articles were identified in the initial search, resulting in 29 studies in the final synthesis. The available evidence suggests individuals who are older, identify as women, trust governments, perceive COVID-19 as threatening and access information through traditional news media are more likely to adhere with COVID-19 public health guidelines. Interventions for improving adherence have not yet been investigated thoroughly, and this review identified only three experimental studies.

CONCLUSIONS

This review has identified several characteristics that impact attitudes and adherence to COVID-19 public health guidelines.