A second horizon scan of biogeography: Golden Ages, Midas touches, and the Red Queen

Disentangling the drivers of continental mammalian endemism

Endemic species and species with small ranges are ecologically and evolutionarily distinct and are vulnerable to extinction. Determining which abiotic and biotic factors structure patterns of endemism on continents can advance our understanding of global biogeographic processes, but spatial patterns of mammalian endemism have not yet been effectively predicted and reconstructed. Using novel null model techniques, we reconstruct trends in mammalian endemism and describe the isolated and combined effects of physiographic, ecological, and evolutionary factors on endemism. We calculated weighted endemism for global continental ecoregions and compared the spatial distribution of endemism to niche-based, geographic null models of endemism. These null models distribute species randomly across continents, simulating their range sizes from their degree of climatic specialization. They isolate the effects of physiography (topography and climate) and species richness on endemism. We then ran linear and structural models to determine how topography and historical climate stability influence endemism. The highest rates of mammalian endemism were found in topographically rough, climatically stable ecoregions with many species. The null model that isolated physiography did not closely approximate the observed distribution of endemism (r²  = .09), whereas the null model that incorporated both physiography and species richness did (r²  = .59). The linear models demonstrate that topography and climatic stability both influenced endemism values, but that average climatic niche breadth was not highly correlated with endemism. Climate stability and topography both influence weighted endemism in mammals, but the spatial distribution of mammalian endemism is driven by a combination of physiography and species richness. Despite its relationship to individual range size, average climate niche breadth has only a weak influence on endemism. The results highlight the importance of historical biogeographic processes (e.g. centers of speciation) and geography in driving endemism patterns, and disentangle the mechanisms structuring species ranges worldwide.