Intratreatment Tumor Volume Change During Definitive Chemoradiotherapy is Predictive for Treatment Outcome of Patients with Esophageal Carcinoma

Optimal Time-to-Surgery Recommendations Based on Primary Tumor Volume Regression for Patients with Resectable Esophageal Cancer after Neoadjuvant Chemoradiotherapy: A Retrospective Study

BACKGROUND

Neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (NCRT) has shown promise in improving the prognosis of individuals with locally advanced esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (LA-ESCC). However, the factors influencing tumor response and long-term survival in these patients remain unknown. The optimal timing for surgery after the completion of radiotherapy in LA-ESCC remains controversial. Therefore, this study was designed to identify biomarkers and to determine the optimal post-NCRT time-to-surgery (TTS) for patients with LA-ESCC.

METHODS

This retrospective study included patients with resectable LA-ESCC who underwent NCRT between May 2017 and June 2021. The tumor shrinkage rate was calculated as the difference between the pre- and post-primary gross tumor volume (GTVp) divided by the pre-GTVp. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses and Kaplan-Meier curves were used to calculate overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS).

RESULTS

We collected data from 248 patients with resectable LA-ESCC who underwent computed tomography (CT) scans before the initiation of treatment. The median follow-up time was 37.7 months. The optimal cutoff of tumor shrinkage was 45%. In the univariate and multivariate analyses, we found a significant association between the tumor shrinkage rate and PFS (p = 0.001). Among the subgroup of patients who responded to treatment, extending the TTS was associated with improved OS (p = 0.037) and PFS (p = 0.028).

CONCLUSIONS

For patients with resectable LA-ESCC, the tumor shrinkage rate is an independent prognostic factor for PFS. Thus, for responders, prolonging TTS is recommended to obtain a better OS.

Nomograms incorporating primary tumor response at mid-radiotherapy to predict survival in locoregionally advanced nasopharyngeal carcinoma

BACKGROUND

A nomogram that incorporates tumor response at mid-radiotherapy (mid-RT) to predict the prognosis of locoregionally advanced nasopharyngeal carcinoma (LA-NPC) has not been established.

METHODS

This study retrospectively reviewed 583 patients with LA-NPC who underwent magnetic resonance imaging scans at mid-RT (the fourth week of RT) between 2015 and 2019.

RESULTS

Primary tumor (PT) response at mid-RT was found to predict disease-free survival (DFS) and overall survival (OS). Independent factors from multivariable analysis to predict DFS and OS were assembled into nomograms with (nomograms Amid-RT and Bmid-RT ) or without (nomograms Abaseline and Bbaseline ) PT response. Internal validation revealed good performance of these nomograms in discrimination: C-statistics = 0.761 for nomogram Amid-RT and 0.809 for nomogram Bmid-RT , which showed better discrimination performance than (C-statistics: 0.755) nomogram Abaseline and (C-statistics: 0.798) nomogram Bbaseline (Z-statistic = 2.476, p < 0.05; Z-statistic = 1.971, p < 0.05).

CONCLUSION

The nomograms based on PT response at mid-RT showed favorable predictive accuracy for DFS and OS in patients with LA-NPC.

Change in Density Not Size of Esophageal Adenocarcinoma During Neoadjuvant Chemotherapy Is Associated with Improved Survival Outcomes

BACKGROUND

Changes in the size and density of esophageal malignancy during neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NCT) may be useful in predicting overall survival (OS). The aim of this study was to explore this relationship in patients with adenocarcinoma.

METHODS

A retrospective single-centre cohort study was performed. Consecutive patients with esophageal adenocarcinoma who received NCT followed by en bloc resection with curative intent were identified. Pre- and post-NCT computed tomography scans were reviewed. The percentage difference between the greatest tumor diameter, esophageal wall thickness and tumor density was calculated. Multivariate Cox regression analysis identified variables independently associated with OS. A ROC analysis was performed on radiological markers to identify optimal cut-off points with Kaplan-Meier plots subsequently created.

RESULTS

Of the 167 identified, 88 (51.5%) had disease of the gastro-esophageal junction and 149 (89.2%) were clinical T3. In total, 122 (73.1%) had node-positive disease. Increased tumor density (HR 1.01 per % change, 95% CI 1.00-1.02, p = 0.007), lymphovascular invasion (HR 3.23, 95% CI 1.34-7.52, p = 0.006) and perineural invasion (HR 2.51, 95% CI 1.03-6.08, p = 0.048) were independently associated with a decrease in OS. Patients who had a decrease in their tumor density during the time they received NCT of ≥ 20% in Hounsfield units had significantly longer OS than those who did not (75.5 months versus 34.4 months, 95% CI 38.83-105.13/18.63-35.07, p = 0.025).

CONCLUSIONS

Interval changes in the density, not size, of esophageal adenocarcinoma during the time that NCT are independently associated with OS.

Prognostic values of the gross volume of metastatic lymph nodes in patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma treated with definitive concurrent chemoradiotherapy

Purpose

We aim to explore whether the gross volume of metastatic lymph nodes (GTVnd) and the gross volume of primary tumor (GTVp) could be prognostic factors for esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) patients treated with definitive concurrent chemoradiotherapy (dCCRT).

Methods

We retrospectively analyzed 252 ESCC patients treated with dCCRT in the era of intensity-modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) at our institution. The cut-off value for the GTVnd derived from the restricted cubic splines (RCS) was determined. Univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazard models were performed to determine the association between GTVnd and prognosis. we performed recursive partitioning analysis (RPA) method using GTVnd to develop a new risk stratification (TGTVndM). Moreover, the linear trend χ2, likelihood ratio χ2, and akaike information criterion (AIC) were used to determine the prognostic value between the TNM and TGTVndM staging systems.

Results

The five-year overall survival (OS) rate was 30.6%, with a median follow-up of 38 months. The cut-off value of GTVnd determined by the RCS was 4.35 cm3. GTVnd≥4.35 cm3 was an independent and significant negative prognostic factor for OS (HR=1.949, P&lt;0.001), progression free survival (PFS) (HR=1.425, P=0.048), and distance metastasis free survival (DMFS) (HR=2.548, P=0.001). In multivariable analysis, gender, clinical T stage, and GTVnd were independently associated with OS. RPA segregated patients into 3 prognostic groups: high risk (T1-4 GTVnd≥4.35, n=126, III stage), intermediate risk (T4 GTVnd&lt;4.35,n=38,II stage), and low risk(T1-3GTVnd&lt;4.35, n=88, I stage). The 5-year OS(P&lt;0.001), PFS (P=0.002), and DMFS (P=0.001) were significantly worse in high-risk group in comparison with the intermediate and low risk groups. Compared with the TNM staging system, the clinical T stage combined with GTVnd (TGTVndM) had a higher linear trend χ2 (26.38 versus 25.77), higher likelihood ratio χ2 (24.39 versus 20.69), and lower AIC (1255.07 versus 1260.06).

Conclusions

GTVnd may serve as a good prognostic factor in predicting distant metastasis and death for ESCC patients treated with dCCRT. The TGTVndM staging system demonstrated superior accuracy for predicting OS and could serve as a more effective prognostic guidance for unresectable ESCC patients.

Significance of intratreatment tumor volume change during chemoradiotherapy for potentially resectable thoracic esophageal squamous cell carcinoma

OBJECTIVE

The purpose of this study was to investigate the clinical significance of tumor response assessment at a twentieth fraction of radiotherapy when predicting the survival of patients with potentially resectable esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC).

METHODS

A total of 123 ESCC patients with clinical stages II to IV_a were enrolled and analyzed. Gross tumor volume (GTV) of the esophagus (GTV_e) and GTV of the metastatic lymph node (GTV_nd) were manually contoured by at least 2 senior professional radiotherapists on the simulated computed tomography (CT) images in a process that followed the delineating rules for ESCC.

RESULTS

The GTV_e reduction ratio (RR) and GTV_nd RR were calculated based on the evaluation of the tumor volume at a twentieth fraction of radiotherapy. Univariate analysis showed that GTV_e and GTV_nd before treatment, and GTV_e RR and GTV_nd RR at the twentieth fraction of radiotherapy were all significantly associated with complete clinical response (cCR) and overall survival (OS). The Kaplan-Meier method was used to estimate OS and locoregional recurrence-free survival (LRRFS).

CONCLUSIONS

The GTV_e RR ≥27.92% and GTV_nd RR ≥21.49% at a twentieth fraction of radiotherapy are positive predictive factors of LRRFS, and according to multivariate analysis, only GTV_e RR at the twentieth fraction of radiotherapy ≥27.92% is prognostic for a favorable OS.

Residual Volume of Lymph Nodes During Chemoradiotherapy Based Nomogram to Predict Survival of Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma Patient Receiving Induction Chemotherapy

Purpose

To accurately stratify nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) patients who were benefit from induction chemotherapy (IC) followed by chemoradiotherapy (CCRT), we established residual volume of lymph nodes during chemoradiotherapy based nomogram to predict survival for NPC patients.

Methods

Cox regression analysis were used to evaluate predictive effects of tumor volume parameters. Multivariate Cox regression analysis was used to identify the prognostic factors, and nomogram models were developed to predict survival of NPC patients receiving IC followed by CCRT.

Results

Compared with other tumor volumetric parameters, midRT GTVnd was the best predictive factor for OS (HR: 1.043, 95%CI: 1.031-1.055), PFS (HR: 1.040, 95%CI: 1.030- 1.051), and DMFS (HR: 1.046, 95%CI: 1.034 – 1.059) according to the HR of Cox regression analysis. Based on multivariate analysis, three nomograms included midRT GTVnd were constructed to predict 4-year survival. The C-index of nomograms for each survival endpoints were as follow (training cohort vs. validation cohort): 0.746 vs. 0.731 for OS; 0.747 vs. 0.735 for PFS; 0.768 vs. 0.729 for DMFS, respectively. AUC showed a good discriminative ability. Calibration curves demonstrated a consistence between actual results and predictions. Decision curve analysis (DCA) showed that the nomograms had better clinical predictive effects than current TNM staging system.

Conclusion

We identified the best volumetric indicator associated with prognosis was the residual volume of lymph nodes at the fourth week of chemoradiotherapy for patients receiving IC followed by CCRT. We developed and validated three nomograms to predict specific probability of 4-year OS, PFS and DMFS for NPC patient receiving IC followed by CCRT.