Wastewater surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 in Austria: development, implementation, and operation of the Tyrolean wastewater monitoring program

Estimates of SARS-CoV-2 Infections and Population Immunity After the COVID-19 Pandemic in Austria: Analysis of National Wastewater Data

BACKGROUND

Postpandemic surveillance data on coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) infections may help inform future public health policies regarding severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) testing, vaccinations, or other COVID-19 measures. We estimate the total SARS-CoV-2 infections in Austria after the end of the pandemic from wastewater data and utilize these estimates to calculate the average national levels of SARS-CoV-2 infection protection and COVID-19 death protection.

METHODS

We estimated the total SARS-CoV-2 infections in Austria after the end of the pandemic (5 May 2023, per World Health Organization) up to May 2024 from wastewater data using a previously published model. These estimates were used in an agent-based model (ABM) to estimate average national levels of SARS-CoV-2 infection protection and COVID-19 death protection, based on waning immunity estimates of infections and vaccination in previous literature.

RESULTS

We estimate approximately 3.2 million infections between 6 May 2023 and 23 May 2024, with a total of 17.8 million infections following 12 May 2020. The ABM estimates that the national average death protection was approximately 82% higher in May 2024 than before the pandemic. This represents a relative decrease of 8% since May 2023. It also shows that 95% of people in Austria were infected with SARS-CoV-2 at least once by May 2024. National infection protection remained relatively low after the onset of Omicron.

CONCLUSIONS

These findings should be considered for public health decisions on SARS-CoV-2 testing practices and vaccine booster administrations.

Wastewater Surveillance of SARS-CoV-2: A Comparison of Two Concentration Methods

Wastewater surveillance is crucial for the epidemiological monitoring of SARS-CoV-2. Various concentration techniques, such as skimmed milk flocculation (SMF) and polyethylene glycol (PEG) precipitation, are employed to isolate the virus effectively. This study aims to compare these two methods and determine the one with the superior recovery rates. From February to December 2021, 24-h wastewater samples were collected from the Ioannina Wastewater Treatment Plant's inlet and processed using both techniques. Subsequent viral genome isolation and a real-time RT-qPCR detection of SARS-CoV-2 were performed. The quantitative analysis demonstrated a higher detection sensitivity with a PEG-based concentration than SMF. Moreover, when the samples were positive by both methods, PEG consistently yielded higher viral loads. These findings underscore the need for further research into concentration methodologies and the development of precise protocols to enhance epidemiological surveillance through wastewater analysis.

Estimating actual SARS-CoV-2 infections from secondary data

Eminent in pandemic management is accurate information on infection dynamics to plan for timely installation of control measures and vaccination campaigns. Despite huge efforts in diagnostic testing of individuals, the underestimation of the actual number of SARS-CoV-2 infections remains significant due to the large number of undocumented cases. In this paper we demonstrate and compare three methods to estimate the dynamics of true infections based on secondary data i.e., (a) test positivity, (b) infection fatality and (c) wastewater monitoring. The concept is tested with Austrian data on a national basis for the period of April 2020 to December 2022. Further, we use the results of prevalence studies from the same period to generate (upper and lower bounds of) credible intervals for true infections for four data points. Model parameters are subsequently estimated by applying Approximate Bayesian Computation-rejection sampling and Genetic Algorithms. The method is then validated for the case study Vienna. We find that all three methods yield fairly similar results for estimating the true number of infections, which supports the idea that all three datasets contain similar baseline information. None of them is considered superior, as their advantages and shortcomings depend on the specific case study at hand.

Global and genetic diversity of SARS-CoV-2 in wastewater

The analysis of SARS-CoV-2 in wastewater has enabled us to better understand the spread and evolution of the virus worldwide. To deepen our understanding of its epidemiological and genomic characteristics, we analyzed 10,147 SARS-CoV-2 sequences from 5 continents and 21 countries that were deposited in the GISAID database up until January 31, 2023. Our results revealed over 100 independent lineages of the virus circulating in water samples from March 2020 to January 2023, including variants of interest and concern. We observed four clearly defined periods of global distribution of these variants over time, with one variant being replaced by another. Interestingly, we found that SARS-CoV-2 water-borne sequences from different countries had a close phylogenetic relationship. Additionally, 40 SARS-CoV-2 water-borne sequences from Europe and the USA did not show any phylogenetic relationship with SARS-CoV-2 human sequences. We also identified a significant number of non-synonymous mutations, some of which were detected in previously reported cryptic lineages. Among the countries analyzed, France and the USA showed the highest degree of sequence diversity, while Austria reported the highest number of genomes (6,296). Our study provides valuable information about the epidemiological and genomic diversity of SARS-CoV-2 in wastewater, which can be employed to support public health initiatives and preparedness.

Effectiveness of environmental surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 as an early-warning system: Update of a systematic review during the second year of the pandemic

The aim of this updated systematic review was to offer an overview of the effectiveness of environmental surveillance (ES) of SARS-CoV-2 as a potential early-warning system (EWS) for COVID-19 and new variants of concerns (VOCs) during the second year of the pandemic. An updated literature search was conducted to evaluate the added value of ES of SARS-CoV-2 for public health decisions. The search for studies published between June 2021 and July 2022 resulted in 1,588 publications, identifying 331 articles for full-text screening. A total of 151 publications met our inclusion criteria for the assessment of the effectiveness of ES as an EWS and early detection of SARS-CoV-2 variants. We identified a further 30 publications among the grey literature. ES confirms its usefulness as an EWS for detecting new waves of SARS-CoV-2 infection with an average lead time of 1-2 weeks for most of the publication. ES could function as an EWS for new VOCs in areas with no registered cases or limited clinical capacity. Challenges in data harmonization and variant detection require standardized approaches and innovations for improved public health decision-making. ES confirms its potential to support public health decision-making and resource allocation in future outbreaks.

Wastewater early warning system for SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks and variants in a Coruña, Spain

Wastewater-based epidemiology has been widely used as a cost-effective method for tracking the COVID-19 pandemic at the community level. Here we describe COVIDBENS, a wastewater surveillance program running from June 2020 to March 2022 in the wastewater treatment plant of Bens in A Coruña (Spain). The main goal of this work was to provide an effective early warning tool based in wastewater epidemiology to help in decision-making at both the social and public health levels. RT-qPCR procedures and Illumina sequencing were used to weekly monitor the viral load and to detect SARS-CoV-2 mutations in wastewater, respectively. In addition, own statistical models were applied to estimate the real number of infected people and the frequency of each emerging variant circulating in the community, which considerable improved the surveillance strategy. Our analysis detected 6 viral load waves in A Coruña with concentrations between 10³ and 10⁶ SARS-CoV-2 RNA copies/L. Our system was able to anticipate community outbreaks during the pandemic with 8-36 days in advance with respect to clinical reports and, to detect the emergence of new SARS-CoV-2 variants in A Coruña such as Alpha (B.1.1.7), Delta (B.1.617.2), and Omicron (B.1.1.529 and BA.2) in wastewater with 42, 30, and 27 days, respectively, before the health system did. Data generated here helped local authorities and health managers to give a faster and more efficient response to the pandemic situation, and also allowed important industrial companies to adapt their production to each situation. The wastewater-based epidemiology program developed in our metropolitan area of A Coruña (Spain) during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic served as a powerful early warning system combining statistical models with mutations and viral load monitoring in wastewater over time.

Prediction of hospitalisations based on wastewater-based SARS-CoV-2 epidemiology

Wastewater-based epidemiology is widely applied in Austria since April 2020 to monitor the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. With a steadily increasing number of monitored wastewater facilities, 123 plants covering roughly 70 % of the 9 million population were monitored as of August 2022. In this study, the SARS-CoV-2 viral concentrations in raw sewage were analysed to infer short-term hospitalisation occupancy. The temporal lead of wastewater-based epidemiological time series over hospitalisation occupancy levels facilitates the construction of forecast models. Data pre-processing techniques are presented, including the approach of comparing multiple decentralised wastewater signals with aggregated and centralised clinical data. Time‑lead quantification was performed using cross-correlation analysis and coefficient of determination optimisation approaches. Multivariate regression models were successfully applied to infer hospitalisation bed occupancy. The results show a predictive potential of viral loads in sewage towards Covid-19 hospitalisation occupancy, with an average lead time towards ICU and non-ICU bed occupancy between 14.8-17.7 days and 8.6-11.6 days, respectively. The presented procedure provides access to the trend and tipping point behaviour of pandemic dynamics and allows the prediction of short-term demand for public health services. The results showed an increase in forecast accuracy with an increase in the number of monitored wastewater treatment plants. Trained models are sensitive to changing variant types and require recalibration of model parameters, likely caused by immunity by vaccination and/or infection. The utilised approach displays a practical and rapidly implementable application of wastewater-based epidemiology to infer hospitalisation occupancy.

Viral variant-resolved wastewater surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 at national scale

SARS-CoV-2 surveillance by wastewater-based epidemiology is poised to provide a complementary approach to sequencing individual cases. However, robust quantification of variants and de novo detection of emerging variants remains challenging for existing strategies. We deep sequenced 3,413 wastewater samples representing 94 municipal catchments, covering >59% of the population of Austria, from December 2020 to February 2022. Our system of variant quantification in sewage pipeline designed for robustness (termed VaQuERo) enabled us to deduce the spatiotemporal abundance of predefined variants from complex wastewater samples. These results were validated against epidemiological records of >311,000 individual cases. Furthermore, we describe elevated viral genetic diversity during the Delta variant period, provide a framework to predict emerging variants and measure the reproductive advantage of variants of concern by calculating variant-specific reproduction numbers from wastewater. Together, this study demonstrates the power of national-scale WBE to support public health and promises particular value for countries without extensive individual monitoring.

Advances in virus detection methods for wastewater-based epidemiological applications

Wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) is a powerful tool that has the potential to reveal the extent of an ongoing disease outbreak or to predict an emerging one. Recent studies have shown that SARS-CoV-2 concentration in wastewater may be correlated with the number of COVID-19 cases in the corresponding population. Most of the recent studies and applications of wastewater-based surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 applied the "gold standard" real-time quantitative reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-qPCR) detection method. However, this method also has its limitations. The paper aimed to present recent improvements and applications of the PCR-based methods for SARS-CoV-2 monitoring in wastewater. Furthermore, it aimed to review alternative methods utilized and/or proposed for the detection of the virus in wastewater matrices. From the review, it was found that several studies have investigated the use of reverse-transcription digital polymerase reaction (RT-dPCR), which was generally shown to have a lower limit of detection (LOD) over the RT-qPCR. Aside from this, non-PCR-based and non-RNA based methods have also been explored for the detection of SARS-CoV-2 in wastewater, with detailed attention given to the detection of SARS-CoV-2 proteins. The potential methods for protein detection include mass spectrometry, the use of immunosensors, and nanotechnological applications. In addition, the review of recent studies also revealed two types of emerging methods related to the detection of SARS-CoV-2 in wastewater: i) capsid-integrity assays to infer about the infectivity of SARS-CoV-2 present in wastewater, and ii) alternative methods for detection of SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern (VOCs) in wastewater. The recent studies on proposed methods of SARS-CoV-2 detection in wastewater have considered improving this approach in one or more of the following aspects: rapidity, simplicity, cost, sensitivity, and specificity. However, further studies are needed in order to realize the full application of these methods for WBE in the field.

Evaluation of RT-qPCR Primer-Probe Sets to Inform Public Health Interventions Based on COVID-19 Sewage Tests

Sewage surveillance is increasingly employed as a supplementary tool for COVID-19 control. Experiences learnt from large-scale trials could guide better interpretation of the sewage data for public health interventions. Here, we compared the performance of seven commonly used primer-probe sets in RT-qPCR and evaluated the usefulness in the sewage surveillance program in Hong Kong. All selected primer-probe sets reliably detected SARS-CoV-2 in pure water at 7 copies per μL. Sewage matrix did not influence RT-qPCR determination of SARS-CoV-2 concentrated from a small-volume sewage (30 mL) but introduced inhibitory impacts on a large-volume sewage (920 mL) with a ΔCt of 0.2-10.8. Diagnostic performance evaluation in finding COVID-19 cases showed that N1 was the best single primer-probe set, while the ORF1ab set is not recommended. Sewage surveillance using the N1 set for over 3200 samples effectively caught the outbreak trend and, importantly, had a 56% sensitivity and a 96% specificity in uncovering the signal sources from new cases and/or convalescent patients in the community. Our study paves the way for selecting detection primer-probe sets in wider applications in responding to the COVID-19 pandemic.