Water quality modelling and quantitative microbial risk assessment for uMsunduzi River in South Africa

Changing climate and socio-economic conditions as part of quantitative microbial risk assessment of surface drinking water sources: a review

Climate and socio-economic changes are expected to significantly impact waterborne pathogens and associated health risks, yet the full extent of these effects remains unclear. Accurate quantification of these risks is crucial for informing effective interventions and policy decisions. Quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) serves as a valuable tool for estimating the risk of infection caused by microorganisms in drinking water. This study reviews existing QMRA studies and tools in the context of surface water and drinking water provision. Most studies have implemented various steps of the QMRA framework but often without the application of specific QMRA tools. Although several QMRA tools address climatic factors, there are currently no tools that integrate socio-economic factors into their risk assessments. This study proposes an approach for incorporating both climatic and socio-economic factors into QMRA tools. Specifically, we suggest enhancements to the Swedish QMRA tool - an open-source tool that currently does not incorporate climate and socio-economic changes. Our proposed advancements aim to systematically account for future climatic and socio-economic impacts on health risks, providing a more comprehensive microbial risk assessment tool. These recommendations are also applicable to other QMRA tools, offering a pathway for their development and improving the overall assessment of microbial health risks.

Multi-criteria decision analysis framework for engaging stakeholders in river pollution risk management

Water pollution presents a substantial environmental challenge with extensive implications for water resources, ecosystem sustainability, and human health. Using a South African catchment, this study aimed to provide watershed managers with a framework for selecting best management practices (BMPs) to reduce pollution and the related risk to river users, while also including the perspectives of key catchment stakeholders. The framework encompassed the identification of and consultation with key stakeholders within the catchment. A Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) methodology using the Simple Multi-Attribute Rating Technique for Enhanced Stakeholder Take-up (SMARTEST) was used to identify and prioritise suitable BMPs in a case study. Decision alternatives and assessment criteria as well as their weights were derived based on stakeholder responses to a two-stage survey. Stakeholders included those utilising the river for domestic and recreational purposes, municipal representatives, scientists, NGOs, and engineers. The assessment of decision alternatives considered environmental, economic, and social criteria. The aggregated scores for decision alternatives highlighted the significance of involving stakeholders throughout the decision process. This study recommends the pairing of structural and non-structural BMPs. The findings provide valuable insights for catchment managers, policymakers, and environmental stakeholders seeking inclusive and effective pollution mitigation strategies in a catchment.

Seasonal variations and health risk assessment of microbial contaminations of groundwater in selected coastal communities of Ghana

This study investigated seasonal variations in microbial contaminations of groundwater and associated health risks in four coastal communities (Essiama, Winneba, Accra, and Keta) in Ghana. Membrane filtration methods, sanitary risk inspection, and quantitative microbial risk assessment were employed, respectively, to (i) quantify bacteriological quality, (ii) identify risks to contamination, and (iii) assess health risks associated with Escherichia coli in groundwater. Results showed 70.00%, 53.33%, 70.37% and 90.00% of groundwater sources in Essiama, Winneba, Accra, and Keta, respectively, were at intermediate risk, whereas 3.33%, 40.00%, 14.81%, and 3.33%, respectively, were at high risk. Very high-risk levels of contamination were recorded only in Accra. The presence of animal wastes within a 10 m radius of groundwater collection point, bad drainage systems, collection of spilt water in apron area, the use of ropes and buckets when fetching groundwater, and absence of aprons and well covers put more than 60.00% of the groundwater points in two or more locations at risk of contaminations. Assessment of bacteriological quality of groundwater indicated that mean total coliforms and E. coli ranged, respectively, between 123.40-501.30 and 30.98-141.90 CFU/100 ml for the communities; the highest microbial counts for dry and wet seasons occurred in Winneba and Keta, respectively. Seasonal variations in E. coli counts in Winneba and Accra were significantly higher in the dry season than in the wet season; Essiama and Keta showed no significant seasonal variations. Exposure to E. coli O157:H7 through drinking groundwater ranged between 5 and 23 cells per day. Although exposure to E. coli O157:H7 through bathing was less than 1 cell per day in all communities, residents were exposed to one E. coli, at least, every 62, 141, 237, and 282 days in Winneba, Accra, Keta, and Essiama, respectively. The risk of infection and illness for all communities was 1 for drinking, whereas that for bathing ranged from 0.57 to 0.98. The estimated Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALY) exceeded the WHO-acceptable DALY. These findings show that groundwater resources in the selected coastal communities were prone to microbial contaminations, and this may be a setback to Sustainable Development Goals 6. Implications of the findings are discussed.