Runoff characteristics and application of HEC-HMS for modelling stormflow hydrograph in an oil palm catchment

Prediction of hydrological responses to land use change

The change of land use and land coverage (LULC) has a direct impact on the underlying surface of the drainage basin, hence alters the rainfall-runoff processes. This study described the procedure to use the CA-Markov model to predict the future distributed land use in the Qinhuai River basin in 2028 based on the historical evolution. The hydrological model HEC-HMS was then utilized to examine the impact of land use change on the hydrological responses of the drainage basin. The major findings were as follows: (1) from 2001 to 2010, major changes detected in land use were substantial conversion of paddy fields, forest land and dryland into urban land (increased by 56.81%), following the trend recognized by CA-Markov model, urban land and dry land were predicted to increase by 17.47% and 14.05% by 2028. (2) the projected land use in 2028 resulted in various degrees of increase in flood peak and volume according to the severity of the floods characterized by flood volumes, the smaller floods were predicted to result in more significant increase with 3.5% increase in flood peak and 2.9% increase in flood volume while these values decreased to 0.4% and 1.1% for a big scale flood; (3) greater increase in urbanization leads to greater change of the flood peak and volume change. For small scale floods, when the proportion of urban land use increases by 30% to 60% hypothetically, the relative increment in flood peaks increase from 4.7% to 8.1% with 4% to 6.6% increase in the flood volume; (4) on the sub-basin scale, the trend of change in urban land use and the flood peak and volume were consistent. The methods and conclusions may shed light on urban land development and management and design of flood control measures in a large river basin.

Flood-Landscape Ecological Risk Assessment under the Background of Urbanization

The Hydrologic Modeling System (HEC-HMS) and statistical analysis method were used to analyze the relationship between flood eigenvalues (i.e., flood volume and peak flow) and landscape pattern metrics. Then, the flood-landscape ecological risk index (ERI_FL) was proposed and constructed to quantitatively assess the flood-landscape ecological risk (FLER). The semivariogram method was used to spatialize the ERI_FL values. Lastly, this study analyzed the spatial–temporal change of FLER at watershed scale and at sub-basin scale, respectively. Two historical landscape distributions (i.e., 2003 and 2017) of Qinhuai River basin were used to perform this study. The results showed that there were certain relationships between landscape pattern and flood eigenvalues, and for different landscapes, the response metrics and degrees were different. FLER increased as urbanization increased. FLER change magnitude had a positive relationship with urban land percentage change magnitude. The distribution of FLER and the distribution of FLER change both showed spatial differences at watershed scale. The structural features of landscape pattern had significant effects on regional floods. In the urbanization process, avoiding forming large-scale landscape patches, improving landscape abundance, and increasing contact area between different types of landscape patches were helpful to reduce the negative effects caused by the increase of urban landscape area on flood.

Application of HEC-HMS Model for Flow Simulation in the Lake Tana Basin: The Case of Gilgel Abay Catchment, Upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia

Understanding the complex relationships between rainfall and runoff processes is necessary for the proper estimation of the quantity of runoff generated in a watershed. The surface runoff was simulated using the Hydrologic Modelling System (HEC-HMS) for the Gilgel Abay Catchment (1609 km2), Upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia. The catchment was delineated and its properties were extracted from a 30 m × 30 m Digital Elevation Model (DEM) of the Lake Tana Basin. The meteorological model was developed within HEC-HMS from rainfall data and the control specifications defined the period and time step of the simulation run. To account for the loss, runoff estimation, and flow routing, Soil Conservation Service Curve Number (SCS-CN), Soil Conservation Service Unit Hydrograph (SCS-UH) and Muskingum methods were used respectively. The rainfall-runoff simulation was conducted using six extreme daily time series events. Initial results showed that there is a clear difference between the observed and simulated peak flows and the total volume. Thereafter, a model calibration with an optimization method and sensitivity analysis was carried out. The result of the sensitivity analysis showed that the curve number is the sensitive parameter. In addition, the model validation results showed a reasonable difference in peak flow (Relative Error in peak, REP = 1.49%) and total volume (Relative Error in volume, REV = 2.38%). The comparison of the observed and simulated hydrographs and the model performance (NSE = 0.884) and their correlation (R2 = 0.925) showed that the model is appropriate for hydrological simulations in the Gilgel Abay Catchment.

Applicability of a Spatially Semi-Distributed Hydrological Model for Watershed Scale Runoff Estimation in Northwest Ethiopia

Estimation of runoff is vital forplanning activities in relation to integrated watershed management and flood protection measures. This research was conducted at one of the catchments in Abbay River (upper Blue Nile River) basin to assess the applicabilityof the Hydrologic Engineering Centre Hydrological Modelling Software (HEC-HMS) modelfor simulation of runoff. It was aimed at selecting the best loss and transform methods in the model, as well as testing the applicability of the calibrated model to ungauged watersheds. Two loss methods such as soil conservation service (SCS) and initial and constant methods with two transform methods including SCS and Clark unit hydrographs were considered in the study for selecting the best combinations applicable in the area. While comparing the simulation results of each combination, better results were obtained in the model set containing the initial and constant loss method and SCS unit hydrograph with a Nash-Sutcliff Efficiency (NSE) of 82.8%, R2 of 0.83, and 10.71% of relative bias errors, followed by initial and constant with Clarks unit hydrograph, and it can be used for similar ungauged watersheds.

Examining the effects of urban agglomeration polders on flood events in Qinhuai River basin, China with HEC-HMS model

The urban agglomeration polders type of flood control pattern is a general flood control pattern in the eastern plain area and some of the secondary river basins in China. A HEC-HMS model of Qinhuai River basin based on the flood control pattern was established for simulating basin runoff, examining the impact of urban agglomeration polders on flood events, and estimating the effects of urbanization on hydrological processes of the urban agglomeration polders in Qinhuai River basin. The results indicate that the urban agglomeration polders could increase the peak flow and flood volume. The smaller the scale of the flood, the more significant the influence of the polder was to the flood volume. The distribution of the city circle polder has no obvious impact on the flood volume, but has effect on the peak flow. The closer the polder is to basin output, the smaller the influence it has on peak flows. As the level of urbanization gradually improving of city circle polder, flood volumes and peak flows gradually increase compared to those with the current level of urbanization (the impervious rate was 20%). The potential change in flood volume and peak flow with increasing impervious rate shows a linear relationship.

A review of the ecosystem functions in oil palm plantations, using forests as a reference system

Oil palm plantations have expanded rapidly in recent decades. This large-scale land-use change has had great ecological, economic, and social impacts on both the areas converted to oil palm and their surroundings. However, research on the impacts of oil palm cultivation is scattered and patchy, and no clear overview exists. We address this gap through a systematic and comprehensive literature review of all ecosystem functions in oil palm plantations, including several (genetic, medicinal and ornamental resources, information functions) not included in previous systematic reviews. We compare ecosystem functions in oil palm plantations to those in forests, as the conversion of forest to oil palm is prevalent in the tropics. We find that oil palm plantations generally have reduced ecosystem functioning compared to forests: 11 out of 14 ecosystem functions show a net decrease in level of function. Some functions show decreases with potentially irreversible global impacts (e.g. reductions in gas and climate regulation, habitat and nursery functions, genetic resources, medicinal resources, and information functions). The most serious impacts occur when forest is cleared to establish new plantations, and immediately afterwards, especially on peat soils. To variable degrees, specific plantation management measures can prevent or reduce losses of some ecosystem functions (e.g. avoid illegal land clearing via fire, avoid draining of peat, use of integrated pest management, use of cover crops, mulch, and compost) and we highlight synergistic mitigation measures that can improve multiple ecosystem functions simultaneously. The only ecosystem function which increases in oil palm plantations is, unsurprisingly, the production of marketable goods. Our review highlights numerous research gaps. In particular, there are significant gaps with respect to socio-cultural information functions. Further, there is a need for more empirical data on the importance of spatial and temporal scales, such as differences among plantations in different environments, of different sizes, and of different ages, as our review has identified examples where ecosystem functions vary spatially and temporally. Finally, more research is needed on developing management practices that can offset the losses of ecosystem functions. Our findings should stimulate research to address the identified gaps, and provide a foundation for more systematic research and discussion on ways to minimize the negative impacts and maximize the positive impacts of oil palm cultivation.

A simple numerical method for snowmelt simulation based on the equation of heat energy

This paper presents one-dimensional numerical model for snowmelt/accumulation simulations, based on the equation of heat energy. It is assumed that the snow column is homogeneous at the current time step; however, its characteristics such as snow density and thermal conductivity are treated as functions of time. The equation of heat energy for snow column is solved using the implicit finite difference method. The incoming energy at the snow surface includes the following parts: conduction, convection, radiation and the raindrop energy. Along with the snow melting process, the model includes a model for snow accumulation. The Euler method for the numerical integration of the balance equation is utilized in the proposed model. The model applicability is demonstrated at the meteorological station Zlatibor, located in the western region of Serbia at 1,028 meters above sea level (m.a.s.l.) Simulation results of snowmelt/accumulation suggest that the proposed model achieved better agreement with observed data in comparison with the temperature index method. The proposed method may be utilized as part of a deterministic hydrological model in order to improve short and long term predictions of possible flood events.

The control of land-use patterns for stormwater management at multiple spatial scales

While most research about the relationship between land use and watershed hydrological output has focused primarily on land-use types and their impact on hydrological processes, the relationship between characteristics of land-use patterns (such as pattern fragmentation, connectivity, and coherence) and hydrological processes has not been well examined. Using historical stormwater data, this study evaluates the hydrological effects of different land-use scenarios in the Qing-shui watershed in Beijing, China, at a variety of spatial scales. This study demonstrates that planning and managing land-use patterns can significantly reduce runoff under different scales, particularly for small storm events. In contrast to other aspects of land-use structure characteristics, such as the shape complexity of land-use patches, fragmented level of the patches of land-use types appear as dominant drivers of runoff. The results of the study suggest that land-use pattern management should be an important component of Best Management Practices to reduce the impacts of urbanization on natural hydrological processes.

Modelling transport and transformation of mercury fractions in heavily contaminated mountain streams by coupling a GIS-based hydrological model with a mercury chemistry model

Many heavily polluted areas are located in remote regions that lack routine hydrologic monitoring. A modelling method that can produce scenarios of water chemistry trends for regions that lack hydrological data is therefore needed. The Wanshan mining area, in Guizhou province in south-western China, is such a region, as it is heavily polluted with mercury (Hg). In order to model Hg transport in a stream draining the Wanshan mining area, a Geographic Information System (GIS) hydrologic model (HEC-HMS) was coupled with a simulation model for Hg fractions in water (WASP Hg). Hydrological variations in the stream flow can thereby be simulated based on readily available precipitation data. The WASP 7 MERC Hg model was used for simulating variations in total Hg, dissolved Hg and methyl-Hg concentrations. The results of HEC-HMS modelling of flow show clear seasonal variation. Winter (Oct-Dec) constitutes the dry season with low flow, while the summer season (Jun-Aug) is rainy with high flow. 48% of total annual precipitation happens in the three summer months. The stream flows at the high flow events were several times higher than normal flow. The modelled total suspended solids and Hg concentrations were tested against monitoring data from two sampling campaigns conducted in September 2007 and August 2008. The model produced reasonable simulations for TSS, THg, DHg and MeHg, with relative errors generally around 10% for the modelled parameters. High flow events are the main contributors for release of both suspended particles and Hg. The three high flow events account for about 50% of annual discharge of THg. The annual total discharge of Hg was 8.8 kg Hg high up in the stream and 2.6 kg where the stream meets a large river 20 km downstream of the pollution source. Hence, about 70% of Hg is retained in the stream through sedimentation.