Global implementation of two shared socioeconomic pathways for future sanitation and wastewater flows

Nutrient concentration, loads and retention in a semiarid micro-estuary: The relative contribution of baseflow and flood events

Estuaries are a significant source of nutrients to the marine environment. The magnitude of this source is a function of nutrients load reaching the estuary and removal (attenuation) within estuaries. Most estuarine research is conducted in large estuaries, which do not reflect the processes in small estuaries in urban and semi-arid regions where flood water is a substantial portion of the annual discharge and the estuarine baseflow is often low and dominated by wastewater. To improve the understanding of nutrient attenuation and load into the Mediterranean, we conducted high-resolution nutrient sampling in the eutrophic Alexander micro-estuary as a test case. We sampled once per month during baseflows (years 2014-2019) and hourly during floods (years 2016-2018). The concentrations of inorganic nutrients (phosphorous (P) and nitrogen (N)) were extremely high during baseflows. Dissolved ammonium and particulate P were the only nutrients that were in the estuary (by 55 % and 30 %, respectively). Floods were rare, occurring ~4 % of the time, but contributed 62 % of the annual water discharge of the Alexander micro-estuary (14.7 ± 3.8 106 m3 y-1). The concentration of all dissolved nutrients decreased during floods but was higher than expected (DIN 584 ± 50 μmol L-1, phosphate 21 ± 2 μmol L-1), accounting for 42 % and 55 % of the overall annual DIN (123.5 ± 44.9-ton yr-1) and P (6.7 ± 1.9 ton yr-1) loads to sea, respectively. The N:P ratios were 16 and 34 during baseflow and flood events, respectively. Previously, nutrient loads were calculated by multiplying baseflow-measured concentrations by the total water volume of baseflow and floods. Our calculations, based on high-resolution sampling, revealed lower annual loads of P and N to the sea that were 56 % and 89 % of previous estimates, which is a considerable difference in an oligotrophic system such as the eastern Mediterranean.

Non-Sewered Sanitation Systems’ Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions: Balancing Sustainable Development Goal Tradeoffs to End Open Defecation

Discharge of excreta into the environment and the use of decentralized sanitation technologies, such as septic tanks, pit latrines and ecological sanitation variants (i.e., container-based sanitation), contribute to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions but have remained poorly quantified. The purpose of this analysis was to investigate the impacts that meeting Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 6.2 (i.e., ending open defecation by 2030) would have on SDG 13 (i.e., combatting climate impacts). The current Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change GHG estimation methodology was used as the basis for calculations in this analysis, augmented with improved emission factors from collected data sets for all types of on-site sanitation infrastructure. Specifically, this assessment focused on the three different service levels of sanitation (i.e., improved, unimproved and no service) as defined by UNICEF and WHO as they pertain to three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. This analysis considered the 100-year global warming potential values in carbon dioxide equivalents of methane and nitrous oxide that can be emitted for each scenario and decentralized sanitation technology. Ultimately, six scenarios were developed for various combinations of pathways and sanitation technologies. There was significant variability between the scenarios, with results ranging from 68 Tg CO2eq/year to 7 TgCO2eq/year. The main contributors of GHG emissions in each scenario were demonstrated to be septic tank systems and pit latrines, although in scenarios that utilized improved emission factors (EFs) these emissions were significantly reduced compared with those using only standard IPCC EFs. This analysis demonstrated that using improved EFs reduced estimated GHG emissions within each SSP scenario by 53% on average. The results indicate that achieving SDG sanitation targets will ultimately increase GHG emissions from the current state but with a relatively small impact on total anthropogenic emissions. There is a need for the continued improvement and collection of field-based emission estimations to refine coarse scale emissions models as well as a better characterization of relevant biodegradation mechanisms in popular forms of on-site sanitation systems. An increase in the understanding of sanitation and climate change linkages among stakeholders will ultimately lead to a better inclusion of sanitation, and other basic human rights, in climate action goals.

Willingness among food consumers to recycle human urine as crop fertiliser: Evidence from a multinational survey

Source-separating sanitation systems offer the possibility of recycling nutrients present in wastewater as crop fertilisers. Thereby, they can reduce agriculture's impacts on global sources, sinks, and cycles for nitrogen and phosphorous, as well as their associated environmental costs. However, it has been broadly assumed that people would be reluctant to perform the new sanitation behaviours that are necessary for implementing such systems in practice. Yet, few studies have tried to systematically gather evidence in support of this assumption. To address this gap, we surveyed 3763 people at 20 universities in 16 countries using a standardised questionnaire. We identified and systematically assessed cross-cultural and country-level explanatory factors that were strongly associated with people's willingness to consume food grown using human urine as fertiliser. Overall, 68% of the respondents favoured recycling human urine, 59% stated a willingness to eat urine-fertilised food, and only 11% believed that urine posed health risks that could not be mitigated by treatment. Most people did not expect to pay less for urine-fertilised food, but only 15% were willing to pay a price premium. Consumer perceptions were found to differ greatly by country and the strongest predictive factors for acceptance overall were cognitive factors (perceptions of risks and benefits) and social norms. Increasing awareness and building trust among consumers about the effectiveness of new sanitation systems via cognitive and normative messaging can help increase acceptance. Based on our findings, we believe that in many countries, acceptance by food consumers will not be the major social barrier to closing the loop on human urine. That a potential market exists for urine-fertilised food, however, needs to be communicated to other stakeholders in the sanitation service chain.

Textile microfibers reaching aquatic environments: A new estimation approach

Textile microfibers are one of the most important sources within primary microplastics. These have raised environmental concerns since its recent identification as pollutants. However, there are still no accurate models to assess their contribution to the microplastic pollution. Hence, in this study, a method to estimate the mass flow of microfibers detached from household laundry that reaches aquatic environments has been developed. The method considers a set of parameters related to the detachment of microfibers, which are, basically: (1) the detachment rate of microfibers from different textile garments, (2) the volume of laundry effluents, (3) the percentage of municipal water that has been treated, (4) the type of used-water treatment applied, and, (5) the proportion of front- versus top-loading washing machines. In this way, 0.28 million tons of microfibers per year were estimated to reach aquatic environments, which is approximately half than the last published valuation. Finally, hypothetical situations were simulated to evaluate the reduction of microfibers by the modification of some of the parameters at different levels (consumer, government entities, and industry). Thus, depending on the implanted alternatives, microfibers that reach the aquatic environments could be reduced between 30% and 65%.

Impacts of changing society and climate on nutrient loading to the Baltic Sea

This paper studies the relative importance of societal drivers and changing climate on anthropogenic nutrient inputs to the Baltic Sea. Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and Representative Concentration Pathways are extended at temporal and spatial scales relevant for the most contributing sectors. Extended socioeconomic and climate scenarios are then used as inputs for spatially and temporally detailed models for population and land use change, and their subsequent impact on nutrient loading is computed. According to the model simulations, several factors of varying influence may either increase or decrease total nutrient loads. In general, societal drivers outweigh the impacts of changing climate. Food demand is the most impactful driver, strongly affecting land use and nutrient loads from agricultural lands in the long run. In order to reach the good environmental status of the Baltic Sea, additional nutrient abatement efforts should focus on phosphorus rather than nitrogen. Agriculture is the most important sector to be addressed under the conditions of gradually increasing precipitation in the region and increasing global demand for food.

Future socioeconomic conditions may have a larger impact than climate change on nutrient loads to the Baltic Sea

The Baltic Sea is suffering from eutrophication caused by nutrient discharges from land to sea, and these loads might change in a changing climate. We show that the impact from climate change by mid-century is probably less than the direct impact of changing socioeconomic factors such as land use, agricultural practices, atmospheric deposition, and wastewater emissions. We compare results from dynamic modelling of nutrient loads to the Baltic Sea under projections of climate change and scenarios for shared socioeconomic pathways. Average nutrient loads are projected to increase by 8% and 14% for nitrogen and phosphorus, respectively, in response to climate change scenarios. In contrast, changes in the socioeconomic drivers can lead to a decrease of 13% and 6% or an increase of 11% and 9% in nitrogen and phosphorus loads, respectively, depending on the pathway. This indicates that policy decisions still play a major role in climate adaptation and in managing eutrophication in the Baltic Sea region.

Reactive nitrogen losses from China's food system for the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs)

Food production in China has been changing fast as a result of socio-economic development. This resulted in an increased use of nitrogen (N) in food production, and also to increased reactive nitrogen (Nr) losses to the environment, causing nitrogen pollution. Our study is the first to quantify future Nr losses from China's food system for the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs). We show that Nr losses differ largely among SSPs. We first qualitatively described the five SSP storylines for China with a focus on food production and consumption. Next, we interpreted these SSP scenarios quantitatively for 2030 and 2050, using the NUFER (NUtrient Flows in Food chains, Environment and Resources use) model to project the Nr losses from China's food system. The results indicate that Nr losses from future food system in China are relatively low for SSP1 and SSP2, and relatively high for SSP3 and SSP4. In SSP5 Nr losses from China's food system are projected to be slightly lower than the level of today.

Global occurrence and emission of rotaviruses to surface waters

Group A rotaviruses (RV) are the major cause of acute gastroenteritis in infants and young children globally. Waterborne transmission of RV and the presence of RV in water sources are of major public health importance. In this paper, we present the Global Waterborne Pathogen model for RV (GloWPa-Rota model) to estimate the global distribution of RV emissions to surface water. To our knowledge, this is the first model to do so. We review the literature to estimate three RV specific variables for the model: incidence, excretion rate and removal during wastewater treatment. We estimate total global RV emissions to be 2 × 1018 viral particles/grid/year, of which 87% is produced by the urban population. Hotspot regions with high RV emissions are urban areas in densely populated parts of the world, such as Bangladesh and Nigeria, while low emissions are found in rural areas in North Russia and the Australian desert. Even for industrialized regions with high population density and without tertiary treatment, such as the UK, substantial emissions are estimated. Modeling exercises like the one presented in this paper provide unique opportunities to further study these emissions to surface water, their sources and scenarios for improved management.