The Effect of New Therapeutic and Diagnostic Agents on the Prognosis of Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Japan – An Analysis of Data from the Kanagawa Cancer Registry

Development and Evaluation of Nomograms to Predict the Cancer-Specific Mortality and Overall Mortality of Patients with Hepatocellular Carcinoma

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is the most common type among primary liver cancers (PLC). With its poor prognosis and survival rate, it is necessary for HCC patients to have a long-term follow-up. We believe that there are currently no relevant reports or literature about nomograms for predicting the cancer-specific mortality of HCC patients. Therefore, the primary goal of this study was to develop and evaluate nomograms to predict cancer-specific mortality and overall mortality. Data of 45,158 cases of HCC patients were collected from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) program database between 2004 and 2013, which were then utilized to develop the nomograms. Finally, the performance of the nomograms was evaluated by the concordance index (C-index) and the area under the time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (td-AUC). The categories selected to develop a nomogram for predicting cancer-specific mortality included marriage, insurance, radiotherapy, surgery, distant metastasis, lymphatic metastasis, tumor size, grade, sex, and the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) stage; while the marriage, radiotherapy, surgery, AJCC stage, grade, race, sex, and age were selected to develop a nomogram for predicting overall mortality. The C-indices for predicted 1-, 3-, and 5-year cancer-specific mortality were 0.792, 0.776, and 0.774; the AUC values for 1-, 3-, and 5-year cancer-specific mortality were 0.830, 0.830, and 0.830. The C-indices for predicted 1-, 3-, and 5-year overall mortality were 0.770, 0.755, and 0.752; AUC values for predicted 1-, 3-, and 5-year overall mortality were 0.820, 0.820, and 0.830. The results showed that the nomograms possessed good agreement compared with the observed outcomes. It could provide clinicians with a personalized predicted risk of death information to evaluate the potential changes of the disease-specific condition so that clinicians can adjust therapy options when combined with the actual condition of the patient, which is beneficial to patients.

Occupational class differences in pancreatic cancer survival: A population-based cancer registry-based study in Japan

Background

Little is known about occupational class differences in pancreatic cancer survival.

Methods

Using a population‐based cancer registry in Japan, 3 578 patients with incident pancreatic cancer (1970‐2011) were followed up for 5 years (median follow‐up time 0.42 years). We classified patients into four occupational classes based on their longest‐held jobs: white‐collar (professional and managers), service, blue‐collar, and those not actively employed. Using white‐collar class as the reference group, hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for overall death were estimated by Cox proportional hazard model. Covariates included age, sex, and year of diagnosis. Prognostic variables (pathology, stage, and treatment) and smoking behaviors were additionally adjusted as possible mediating factors.

Results

Overall survival was poor in this population (median, 0.50 and 0.33 years in white‐collar and service classes, respectively). Compared with white‐collar patients, survival was significantly poorer across all occupational classes, most pronounced in the service worker group: mortality HRs ranged from 1.11 (95% CI 1.00‐1.24) in blue‐collar workers to 1.24 (95% CI 1.12‐1.37) in service workers. Even after controlling for potential mediating factors, service workers showed worse survival.

Conclusion

We documented occupational class disparities in pancreatic cancer survival in Japan. Even in the setting of lethal prognostic cancer with universal health coverage, high‐occupational class groups may enjoy a health advantage.

Risk Factors and Prognosis of Spontaneously Ruptured Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Thailand

Objective:

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is the fatal cancer worldwide. Spontaneously Rupture remains important complication of HCC. The incidence of spontaneous HCC rupture was high in ASEAN but limited studies were reported. The aim of this study was to evaluate predictors and overall survival of ruptured HCC in tertiary care center in Thailand.

Methods:

We conducted a retrospective cohort study of HCC patients aged ≥15 years old during January 2012-January 2016 and followed up through June 2016 at Thammasat University Hospital, Thailand. All clinical information, laboratory and radiologic findings were collected from reviewing computer data base of medical records.

Results:

333 patients had completely retrievable information. Of which, 51patients (15.3%) had spontaneous ruptured HCC. Clinical symptoms with abdominal discomfort and anemic symptoms were significantly higher in ruptured than non-ruptured HCC groups. (76.47% vs.39.36%: p<0.001, 13.73vs.0.71%, p<0.001). Furthermore, size of tumors, presences of metastasis and serum AFP>200 ng/mL were significantly higher in ruptured than non-ruptured HCC groups (10.29cm. vs. 6.47cm. p<0.001, 17.65% vs. 8.16%, p=0.034, 60.78% vs. 36.88%, p=0.001, respectively). In multivariate analysis, age, abdominal discomfort, anemic symptoms, Child-Pugh score>6 were independent risk factors of HCC rupture (OR=0.96, 95%CI=0.93-0.99, p=0.02; OR=3.47, 95%CI=1.26-9.6, p=0.016; OR=54.51, 95%CI=7.09-418.89, p<0.001; OR=2.62, 95%CI=1.09-6.31, p=0.031, respectively). 1-year and 2-year survival rates of ruptured HCC were 66.9% and 44.6% respectively.

Conclusions:

Age, abdominal discomfort, anemic symptoms and Child-Pugh score>6 might be predictive factors of spontaneous ruptured HCC. Ruptures of HCC remained a fatal disease with poor survival rate in Thailand. Appropriate treatment in early stage could be effective tool to improve the treatment outcomes

Clinical Outcome and Predictive Factors of Variceal Bleeding in Patients with Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Thailand

Objective:

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is common cancer in ASEAN. Variceal bleeding (VB) is considered to be fatal complication of cirrhosis with HCC. However, limited studies were reported in ASEAN. Aim of this study was to evaluate overall survival rate and predictors of VB in HCC patients.

Methods:

We conducted a retrospective cohort study of HCC patients aged ≥15 years between January 2012-January 2016 and follow up through June 2016 at Thammasat University Hospital, Thailand. Clinical information and radiologic findings were collected from reviewing computer database of medical records.

Results:

333 patients had completely retrievable information. Of which, 27 patients (8.1%) had documented with VB. Clinical presentations with weight loss and jaundice were higher in VB than non-VB groups (40.74% vs. 34.64%, p=0.525 and 7.41% vs. 2.29%, p=0.116) but the differences were not significant. The most common causes of cirrhosis in HCC patients with VB were chronic HBV infection (55.56%). In multivariate analysis; presence of ascites, Child-Pugh score>6, presence of varices were independent risk factors of having VB in HCC patients (OR=7.59, 95%CI=1.13-50.88, p=0.037; OR=5.07, 95%CI=1.08-23.76, p=0.039; OR=23.51, 95%CI=4.71-117.35, p<0.001, respectively). In HCC patients with VB, 1-year and 2.5-year survival rates were 56.6% and 28.3%.

Conclusions:

HCC patients with ascites, Child-Pugh score>6 and presence of varices might be important predictive factors of VB. Having VB were greatly impact to the survival rate of HCC patients. Clinical suspicion and regular surveillance of VB in HCC patients at risk could improve treatment outcomes.