Wang W, Chen Y, Zhang X, Xi K, Feng X, Zhang L. A Model Shows Utility in Predicting Postoperative Recurrence and Distant Metastasis in Curatively Resected Esophageal Squamous Cell Cancer.
Cancer Control 2019;
26:1073274819852965. [PMID:
31146546 PMCID:
PMC6545664 DOI:
10.1177/1073274819852965]
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Abstract
After curative treatment of esophageal squamous cell cancer (ESCC), patients are
at high risk for recurrence. The objective of this study was to develop an index
with a high sensitivity and specificity to predict ESCC patients’ recurrence and
prognosis. A retrospective analysis was conducted on consecutive patients with
EC who underwent esophagectomy. In total, 1417 patients were included in the
current investigation. In total, 770 patients were included in the current
study’s exploratory group. Alcohol consumption, TNM classification, number of
lymph node station metastases, and number of lymph node metastases were
significantly correlated with recurrence. Multivariate logistical regression
analysis resulted in the development of an equation for predicting recurrence
and prognosis (REEC). When using the REEC value to predict recurrence, the
cutoff value was 1.095, the area under the curve (AUC) values of the REEC were
0.68 (p < 0.001) in the Exploratory Group and 0.65
(p < 0.001) in the Validation Group, and the sensitivity
and specificity were 76.68% and 51.18%, respectively. When using the REEC value
to predict prognosis, the cutoff value was 1.215, the AUC values of the REEC
were 0.65 (p < 0.001) in the Exploratory Group and 0.64
(p < 0.001) in the Validation Group, and the sensitivity
and specificity were 73.12% and 50.67%, respectively. In the Exploratory Group,
when the REEC value was >1.095, patients had a longer median overall survival
(OS) and median disease-free survival (DFS) than those whose REEC value was <
1.095 (70.01±2.01 months versus 50.92±2.85 months and 75.66±1.35 months versus
53.68±2.81 months, respectively, p < 0.001). The differences
were confirmed to still exist in the Validation Group (48.12±1.47 vs 32.68±2.53
months and 55.61±1.32 vs 35.68±2.73 months respectively, p <
0.001).This study reported an index that can predict esophageal cancer
recurrence and prognosis, and its use can benefit patients.
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