Forecasting emergency department waiting time using a state space representation

The provision of waiting time information in emergency departments (ED) has become an increasingly popular practice due to its positive impact on patient experience and ED demand management. However, little scientific attention has been given to the quality and quantity of waiting time information presented to patients. To improve both aspects, we propose a set of state space models with flexible error structures to forecast ED waiting time for low acuity patients. Our approach utilizes a Bayesian framework to generate uncertainties associated with the forecasts. We find that the state-space models with flexible error structures significantly improve forecast accuracy of ED waiting time compared to the benchmark, which is the rolling average model. Specifically, incorporating time-varying and correlated error terms reduces the root mean squared errors of the benchmark by 10%. Furthermore, treating zero-recorded waiting times as unobserved values improves forecast performance. Our proposed model has the ability to provide patient-centric waiting time information. By offering more accurate and informative waiting time information, our model can help patients make better informed decisions and ultimately enhance their ED experience.

About time! A scoping review of public-facing emergency department wait time displays in Canada

PURPOSE

Waiting is a common experience for patients during an emergency department (ED) visit. While high acuity patients are seen with little delay, low acuity patients may experience dissatisfaction from prolonged wait times. One strategy to improve patient experience involves changing the perception of the wait by providing realistic expectations of wait times using public-facing wait time displays. The primary objective of this study is to quantify the number of Canadian EDs with online wait time displays and describe the features and type of information provided.

METHODS

A systematic online search of all Canadian EDs was completed to identify EDs with public-facing wait time displays. A scoping review was then performed to assess their message characteristics, translations offered, availability of multi-site information, and accessibility features. Data were summarized using descriptive statistics.

RESULTS

Sixty (9.3%) of the 647 Canadian EDs identified provide public-facing real-time wait time displays. Thirteen of these (21.7%) were associated with a single proprietary system. Distribution of wait time displays differs across Canada, with a range of zero to 100% of EDs within each province utilizing this communication tool. Common characteristics include "average" wait time (95%), graphical trend data (32%), number of patients waiting (33%), longest wait time (12%), and expected length of stay (10%). Sixty-two percent of wait time displays provide a combination of these methods to inform wait times. Important accessibility features include language translation, compliance with Canadian National Institute for the Blind (CNIB) accessibility guidelines and availability on a mobile application.

CONCLUSION

Currently, there is emerging use of wait time displays in Canada with considerable variability in the information communicated through these tools. Effectiveness of these displays and their content needs to be determined.

Do Patients Respond to Posted Emergency Department Wait Times: Time-Series Evidence From the Implementation of a Wait Time Publication System in Hamilton, Canada

STUDY OBJECTIVE

One proposed solution to prolonged emergency department (ED) wait times is a publicly available website that displays estimated ED wait times. This could provide information to patients so that they may choose sites with low wait times, which has the potential to smooth the overall wait times in EDs across a health system. We describe the effect of a novel city-wide ED wait time website on patient volume distributions throughout the city of Hamilton, Ontario, Canada.

METHODS

We compared the number of new patients arriving every 15 minutes during 2 separate time periods-before and after a publicly viewable wait time website was made available. For each ED site, the effect of the posted wait time was measured by assessing its association with the total number of patient arrivals in the subsequent hour at the same site and at all other sites in Hamilton.

RESULTS

Linear models showed clinically modest changes in patient volumes when wait times changed. However, nonlinear models showed that a 60-minute increase in wait time at a site was associated with 10% fewer patients presenting over the next hour. Larger negative associations were observed at community hospitals and urgent care centers. Increases in wait times at a given site were also associated with increased patient volumes at other sites in the system.

CONCLUSION

After the implementation of a public wait time website, elevated wait times led to fewer patients at the same site but more patient visits at other sites. This may be consistent with the wait time tracker inducing patients to avoid sites with high wait times and instead visit alternate sites in Hamilton, but only when wait times were very high.

Availability of Emergency Department Wait Times Information: A Patient-Centered Needs Assessment

Introduction

Many Emergency Departments (ED) publish wait times; however, the patient perspective in what information is requested and the quantity of information to post is limited.

Methods

We conducted a mixed-methods study at a tertiary care academic center. First, we conducted focus groups of 7 patients. We then generated themes following content analysis to create a patient survey. We administered in-person surveys to patients in ED waiting rooms at sites randomized for survey administration. We used preassigned shifts utilized for even patient perspective representation of the 24 hours-a-day/7 days-a-week service. We included waiting room patients over 18 years of age and excluded patients directly referred to a specialty service or who did not speak French or English. We analyzed survey data using descriptive statistics.

Results

We identified nine dominant focus group themes: wait time definition, wait time notification, communication, education, patient expectations, utilization of the ED, patient behaviour, physical comfort, and patient empowerment. Of the 240 patient questionnaires administered, 81.3% of respondents wanted to know ED wait times before hospital arrival hospital and 90.8% wanted ED wait times posted in the waiting room. Website (46.7%) was the most popular choice for publishing wait times outside the ED. Within the ED, patients had no preference regarding display modality, if times were displayed (39.6%). Overall, 76.7% stated that their satisfaction with the ED would be improved if wait times were posted.

Conclusion

ED patients strongly supported having access to wait time information. Patients believed having wait time information will have a positive impact on their overall ED satisfaction.

Providing Care in Emergency Department Hallways: Demands, Dangers, and Deaths

Emergency departments (ED) worldwide have experienced dramatic increases in crowding over the past 20 years that now have reached critical levels. One consequence of ED crowding has been the routine use of ED hallways for patient care. This includes ED patients who are awaiting care but are considered unstable to remain in the waiting room, patients who are undergoing active medical and trauma treatment, and patients who have been stabilized but await transfer to an inpatient bed (boarding) or another institution. Compared with licensed hospital or standard ED beds, care in ED hallways results in increased patient morbidity and mortality, as well as patient and staff dissatisfaction. Complications experienced by hallway patients include unrecognized sudden respiratory arrest or unstable cardiac arrhythmias, delay in time-sensitive procedures and laboratory testing, delay in receiving important medications, excessive or unrelieved pain, overall increased length of stay, increased disability, and exposure to traumatic psychological events. While much has been published on the general problems of ED crowding, only recently have studies focused exclusively on the issues of providing care in ED hallways. This review summarizes the current issues, challenges, and solutions for hallway care.