The Impact of Selected Risk Factors on The Occurrence of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza in Commercial Poultry Flocks in Poland

Environmental factors and spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of the global outbreaks of the highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1

The spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 has posed a major threat to global public health. Understanding the spatiotemporal outbreak characteristics and environmental factors of H5N1 outbreaks is of great significance for the establishment of effective prevention and control systems. The time and location of H5N1 outbreaks in poultry and wild birds officially confirmed by the World Organization for Animal Health from 2005 to 2019 were collected. Spatial autocorrelation analysis and multidistance spatial agglomeration analysis methods were used to analyze the global outbreak sites of H5N1. Combined with remote sensing data, the correlation between H5N1 outbreaks and environmental factors was analyzed using binary logistic regression methods. We analyzed the correlation between the H5N1 outbreak and environmental factors and finally made a risk prediction for the global H5N1 outbreaks. The results show that the peak of the H5N1 outbreaks occurs in winter and spring. H5N1 outbreaks exhibit aggregation, and a weak aggregation phenomenon is noted on the scale close to 5000 km. Water distance, road distance, railway distance, wind speed, leaf area index (LAI), and specific humidity were protective factors for the outbreak of H5N1, and the odds ratio (OR) were 0.985, 0.989, 0.995, 0.717, 0.832, and 0.935, respectively. Temperature was a risk factor with an OR of 1.073. The significance of these ORs was greater than 95%. The global risk prediction map was obtained. Given that the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) is spreading globally, the methods and results of this study can provide a reference for studying the spread of COVID-19.

Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza H5Nx in Poland in 2020/2021: a Descriptive Epidemiological Study of a Large-scale Epidemic

Introduction

Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) outbreaks caused by the Gs/Gd lineage of H5Nx viruses occur in Poland with increased frequency. The article provides an update on the HPAI situation in the 2020/2021 season and studies the possible factors that caused the exceptionally fast spread of the virus.

Material and Methods

Samples from poultry and wild birds delivered for HPAI diagnosis were tested by real-time RT-PCR and a representative number of detected viruses were submitted for partial or full-genome characterisation. Information yielded by veterinary inspection was used for descriptive analysis of the epidemiological situation.

Results

The scale of the epidemic in the 2020/2021 season was unprecedented in terms of duration (November 2020-August 2021), number of outbreaks in poultry (n = 357), wild bird events (n = 92) and total number of affected domestic birds (approximately ~14 million). The major drivers of the virus spread were the harsh winter conditions in February 2020 followed by the introduction of the virus to high-density poultry areas in March 2021. All tested viruses belonged to H5 clade 2.3.4.4b with significant intra-clade diversity and in some cases clearly distinguished clusters.

Conclusion

The HPAI epidemic in 2020/2021 in Poland struck with unprecedented force. The conventional control measures may have limited effectiveness to break the transmission chain in areas with high concentrations of poultry.