Climate-mediated population dynamics for the world's most endangered sea turtle species

Restricted range, and subsequently small population size, render Kemp's ridley sea turtles (Lepidochelys kempii) the most globally endangered sea turtle species. For at least two decades preceding conservation, high egg harvest rates reduced annual cohort recruitment. Despite > 50 years of dedicated conservation, annual nest counts remain well below a landmark 1947 level. Prior studies attribute less robust than anticipated nest count rebound to multiple contemporary concerns; however, analyses herein convey optimistic interpretation. In objective 1, improved analysis of the ratio of hatchlings to nests since 1966 suggested age structure stabilization as a more likely basis for nest count trends after 2005 than density-dependent effects. In objective 2, multiple regression revealed a lagged (≤ 13 years prior) climate influence on nests (adj. r2 = 0.82) and hatchlings per nest (adj. r2 = 0.94) during 2006-2022. In objectives 3 and 4, a simulator modeled population response to changes in a suite of demographic rates including survival. Across 32 models, high survival and dynamic cohort sex ratio, sexual maturity age, and the ratio of clutch frequency to remigration interval best explained nesting trends during 1966-2022. These novel findings provide alternative perspective for evaluating species recovery criteria and in turn refine future nest trend expectations.

Mitochondrial genomes and genetic structure of the Kemp's ridley sea turtle (Lepidochelys kempii)

The Kemp's ridley (Lepidochelys kempii) is the world's most endangered sea turtle species and is primarily distributed in the Gulf of Mexico. In the United States, South Padre Island, Texas serves as a key nesting ground for the species. Genetic studies of the Kemp's ridley have been used to aid in conservation and management practices, with the mitochondrial control region as the most commonly used marker due to its perceived hypervariability and ease of sequencing. However, with the advent of next generation sequencing technology, targeting complete mitochondrial genomes is now feasible. Here, we describe a more complete mitochondrial genome for the Kemp's ridley than has been previously published in literature and demonstrate a cost-effective and efficient method for obtaining complete mitochondrial genomes from sea turtles. We compare the genetic diversity and taxonomic resolution obtained from whole mitochondrial genomes to that obtained from the mitochondrial control region alone. We compare current genetic diversity with previous records. Furthermore, we evaluate the genetic structure between the breeding stock in South Padre Island and that of deceased Kemp's ridleys recovered on the Northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico after the 2010 BP Deepwater Horizon oil spill, and of Kemp's ridleys stranded on the East Coast of the United States. Our results show that complete mitochondrial genomes provide greater resolution than the control region alone. They also show that the genetic diversity of the Kemp's ridley has remained stable, despite large population declines, and that the genetic makeup of deceased turtles stranded after the Deepwater Horizon oil spill is indistinguishable from the breeding stock in South Padre Island, Texas.

OPEN DATA BADGE

This article has earned an Open Data Badge for making publicly available the digitally-shareable data necessary to reproduce the reported results. The data is available at https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/genbank/.

On simulating cold-stunned sea turtle strandings on Cape Cod, Massachusetts

Kemp's ridley sea turtles were on the verge of extinction in the 1960s. While these sea turtles have slowly recovered, they are still critically endangered. In the last few years, the number of strandings on the beaches of Cape Cod, Massachusetts has increased by nearly an order of magnitude relative to preceding decades. This study uses a combination of ocean observations and a well-respected ocean model to investigate the causes and transport of cold-stunned sea turtles in Cape Cod Bay. After validating the model using satellite-tracked drifters and local temperature moorings, ocean currents were examined in Cape Cod Bay in an attempt to explain stranding locations as observed by volunteers and, for some years, backtracking was conducted to examine the potential source regions. The general finding of this study is that sub 10.5°C water temperatures in combination with persistently strong wind stress (>0.4 Pa), results in increased strandings along particular sections of the coast and are dependent on the wind direction. However, it is still uncertain where in the water column the majority of cold-stunned turtles reside and, if many of them are on the surface, considerable work will need to be done to incorporate the direct effects of wind and waves on the advective processes.

Variability in age and size at maturation, reproductive longevity, and long-term growth dynamics for Kemp's ridley sea turtles in the Gulf of Mexico

Effective management of protected sea turtle populations requires knowledge not only of mean values for demographic and life-history parameters, but also temporal and spatial trends, variability, and underlying causes. For endangered Kemp's ridley sea turtles (Lepidochelys kempii), the need for baseline information of this type has been emphasized during attempts to understand causes underlying the recent truncation in the recovery trajectory for nesting females. To provide insight into variability in age and size at sexual maturation (ASM and SSM) and long-term growth patterns likely to influence population trends, we conducted skeletochronological analysis of humerus bones from 333 Kemp's ridleys stranded throughout the Gulf of Mexico (GOM) from 1993 to 2010. Ranges of possible ASMs (6.8 to 21.8 yr) and SSMs (53.3 to 68.3 cm straightline carapace length (SCL)) estimated using the "rapprochement" skeletal growth mark associated with maturation were broad, supporting incorporation of a maturation schedule in Kemp's ridley population models. Mean ASMs estimated from rapprochement and by fitting logistic, generalized additive mixed, and von Bertalanffy growth models to age and growth data ranged from 11 to 13 yr; confidence intervals for the logistic model predicted maturation of 95% of the population between 11.9 and 14.8 yr. Early juvenile somatic growth rates in the GOM were greater than those previously reported for the Atlantic, indicating potential for differences in maturation trajectories between regions. Finally, long-term, significant decreases in somatic growth response were found for both juveniles and adults, which could influence recruitment to the reproductive population and observed nesting population trends.