Improving inference and avoiding overinterpretation of hidden-state diversification models: Specialized plant breeding has no effect on diversification in frogs

The hidden-state speciation and extinction (HiSSE) model helps avoid spurious results when testing whether a character affects diversification rates. However, care must be taken to optimally analyze models and interpret results. Recently, Tonini et al. (TEA hereafter) studied anuran (frog and toad) diversification with HiSSE methods. They concluded that their focal state, breeding in phytotelmata, increases net diversification rates. Yet this conclusion is counterintuitive, because the state that purportedly increases net diversification rates is 14 times rarer among species than the alternative. Herein, I revisit TEA's analyses and demonstrate problems with inferring model likelihoods, conducting post hoc tests, and interpreting results. I also reevaluate their top models and find that diverse strategies are necessary to reach the parameter values that maximize each model's likelihood. In contrast to TEA, I find no support for an effect of phytotelm breeding on net diversification rates in Neotropical anurans. In particular, even though the most highly supported models include the focal character, averaging parameter estimates over hidden states shows that the focal character does not influence diversification rates. Finally, I suggest ways to better analyze and interpret complex diversification models-both state-dependent and beyond-for future studies in other organisms.

Evolution of macroglands and defensive mechanisms in Leiuperinae (Anura: Leptodactylidae)

Anurans show a wide variety of anti-predator mechanisms, and the species of the Neotropical clade Leiuperinae display several of them. Most species of Edalorhina, Physalaemus and Pleurodema show eyespots, hidden bright colours, macroglands in a inguinal/lumbar position, defensive behaviours and/or chemical defence. We conducted a histological analysis of dorsal and lumbar skin and revised the colour patterns, defensive behaviours and glandular secretions to study the diversity and evolution of anti-predator mechanisms associated with macroglands. We describe 17 characters and optimize these in a phylogenetic hypothesis of Leiuperinae. In the most recent common ancestor of Edalorhina + Engystomops + Physalaemus + Pleurodema, a particular type of serous gland (the main component of macroglands) evolved in the lumbar skin, along with the absence of the Eberth–Katschenko layer. A defensive behaviour observed in leiuperines with macroglands includes four displays (‘crouching down’ behaviour, rear elevation, body inflation and eye protection), all present in the same ancestor. The two elements associated with aposematism (hidden bright colours and eyespots) evolved independently in several species. Our results provide phylogenetic evidence for the startle-first hypothesis, which suggests that behavioural displays arise as sudden movements in camouflaged individuals to avoid predatory attacks, before the origin of bright coloration.

Specialized breeding in plants affects diversification trajectories in Neotropical frogs

Many animals breed exclusively in plants that accumulate rainwater (phytotelma; e.g., bromeliad, bamboo, fruit husk, and tree hole), to which they are either physiologically or behaviorally specialized for this microhabitat. Of the numerous life-history modes observed in frogs, few are as striking or potentially consequential as the transition from pond- or stream-breeding to the deposition of eggs or larvae in phytotelmata. Such specialization can increase offspring survivorship due to reduced competition and predation, representing potential ecological opportunity for adaptive radiation, yet few lineages of phytotelma-breeding frogs appear to have diversified extensively after such a transition, at least in the New World. We use a phylogeny of Neotropical frogs and data on breeding microhabitat to understand the evolutionary transitions involved with specialized phytotelma-breeding. First, we find that phytotelma-breeding is present in at least 168 species in 10 families of frogs. Across the phylogeny, we estimate 14 origins of phytotelma-breeding and 115 reversals, showing that phytotelma-breeding is a highly labile character. Second, phytotelma-breeding lineages overall have higher net diversification than nonphytotelma-breeding ones. This specialization represents an ecological opportunity resulting in increased diversification in most families with phytotelma-breeding lineages, whereas phytotelma-breeding toads have restricted diversification histories.