Predictive Validity and Cut-Off Scores in Four Diagnostic Tests for Falls – A Study in Frail Older People at Home

The Effect of Group Training or Spinal Orthosis on Quality of Life and Potential Plasma Markers of Pain in Older Women With Osteoporosis. A Randomized Controlled Trial

Objective

Primary purpose was to examine the effects of exercise and use of a spinal orthosis on quality of life (QoL). Secondary, to explore the effects of above-mentioned interventions on plasma levels of potential markers of pain: substance P (SP), calcitonin gene-related peptide (CGRP), and interleukin-6 (IL-6).

Design

Randomized controlled trial.

Setting

Community-dwelling women in Stockholm.

Participants

A total of 113 women aged 60-93 years suffering from back pain and self-reported osteoporosis (n=113).

Interventions

The randomized controlled trial was 3-armed: participation in an equipment exercise group, treatment with an activating spinal orthosis or controls. The intervention time was 6 months.

Main Outcome Measures

QoL (QUALEFFO-41 and SF-36), plasma levels of SP, CGRP, and IL-6 measured at baseline and after 6 months in all 3 arms.

Results

No improvement of QoL was found. Comparing change in mobility (QUALEFFO-41), the effect in least squares means was lower in the spinal orthosis group compared with controls. In the exercise group, the role emotional score (SF-36) deteriorated during the intervention. Effect size varied between 0.02 and 0.6. There was no change in the levels of CGRP or SP, while IL-6 levels were lower at 6 months in the spinal orthosis group compared with the other groups. At least 1 previous vertebral fracture was verified by X-ray in 46 women.

Conclusion

The interventions showed none or negative effect on QoL, which was unexpected. The modest effect size may prompt a cautious interpretation. We found a lowering of IL-6 levels in the spinal orthosis group, but more studies are needed.

Predictability of Fall Risk Assessments in Community-Dwelling Older Adults: A Scoping Review

Fall risk increases with age, and one-third of adults over 65 years old experience a fall annually. Due to the aging population, the number of falls and related medical costs will progressively increase. Correct prediction of who will fall in the future is necessary to timely intervene in order to prevent falls. Therefore, the aim of this scoping review is to determine the predictive value of fall risk assessments in community-dwelling older adults using prospective studies. A total of 37 studies were included that evaluated clinical assessments (questionnaires, physical assessments, or a combination), sensor-based clinical assessments, or sensor- based daily life assessments using prospective study designs. The posttest probability of falling or not falling was calculated. In general, fallers were better classified than non-fallers. Questionnaires had a lower predictive capability compared to the other assessment types. Contrary to conclusions drawn in reviews that include retrospective studies, the predictive value of physical tests evaluated in prospective studies varies largely, with only smaller-sampled studies showing good predictive capabilities. Sensor-based fall risk assessments are promising and improve with task complexity, although they have only been evaluated in relatively small samples. In conclusion, fall risk prediction using sensor data seems to outperform conventional tests, but the method's validity needs to be confirmed by large prospective studies.

Improved screening of fall risk using free-living based accelerometer data

Falls are one of the most costly population health issues. Screening of older adults for fall risks can allow for earlier interventions and ultimately lead to better outcomes and reduced public health spending. This work proposes a solution to limitations in existing fall screening techniques by utilizing a hip-based accelerometer worn in free-living conditions. The work proposes techniques to extract fall risk features from periods of free-living ambulatory activity. Analysis of the proposed techniques is conducted and compared with existing screening methods using Functional Tests and Lab-based Gait Analysis. 1705 Older Adults from Umea (Sweden) were assessed. Data consisted of 1 Week of hip worn accelerometer data, gait measurements and performance metrics for 3 functional tests. Retrospective and Prospective fall data were also recorded based on the incidence of falls occurring 12 months before and after the study commencing respectively. Machine learning based experiments show accelerometer based measures perform best when predicting falls. Prospective falls had a sensitivity and specificity of 0.61 and 0.66 respectively while retrospective falls had a sensitivity and specificity of 0.61 and 0.68 respectively.

Multidimensional risk score to stratify community-dwelling older adults by future fall risk using the Stopping Elderly Accidents, Deaths and Injuries (STEADI) framework

BACKGROUND

The Stopping Elderly Accidents, Deaths and Injuries (STEADI) screening algorithm aligns with current fall prevention guidelines and is easy to administer within clinical practice. However, the stratification into low, moderate and high risk categories limits the meaningful interpretation of the fall-related risk factors.

METHODS

Baseline measures from a modified STEADI were used to predict self-reported falls over 4 years in 3170 respondents who participated in the 2011-2015 National Health and Aging Trends Study. A point method was then applied to find coefficient-based integers and 4-year fall risk estimates from the predictive model. Sensitivity and specificity estimates from the point method and the combined moderate and high fall risk STEADI categories were compared.

RESULTS

There were 886 (27.95%) and 387 (12.21%) respondents who were classified as moderate and high risk, respectively, when applying the stratification method. Falls in the past year (OR: 2.16; 95% CI: 1.61 to 2.89), multiple falls (OR: 2.94; 95% CI: 1.89 to 4.55) and a fear of falling (OR: 1.77; 95% CI: 1.45 to 2.16) were among the significant predictors of 4-year falls in older adults. The point method revealed integers that ranged from 0 (risk: 27.21%) to 44 (risk: 99.71%) and a score of 10 points had comparable discriminatory capacity to the combined moderate and high STEADI categories.

CONCLUSION

Coefficient-based integers and their risk estimates can provide an alternative interpretation of a predictive model that may be useful in determining fall risk within a clinical setting, tracking changes longitudinally and defining the effectiveness of an intervention.

Practical and validated tool to assess falls risk in the primary care setting: a systematic review

OBJECTIVE

Although several falls risk assessment tools are available, it is unclear which have been validated and which would be most suitable for primary care practices. This systematic review aims to identify the most suitable falls risk assessment tool for the primary care setting (ie, requires limited time, no expensive equipment and no additional space) and that has good predictive performance in the assessment of falls risk among older people living independently.

DESIGN

A systematic review based on prospective studies.

METHODS

An extensive search was conducted in the following databases: PubMed, Embase, CINAHL, Cochrane and PsycINFO. Tools were excluded if they required expensive and/or advanced software that is not usually available in primary care units and if they had not been validated in at least three different studies. Of 2492 articles published between January 2000 and July 2020, 27 were included.

RESULTS

Six falls risk assessment tools were identified: Timed Up and Go (TUG) test, Gait Speed test, Berg Balance Scale, Performance Oriented Mobility Assessment, Functional Reach test and falls history. Most articles reported area under the curve (AUC) values ranging from 0.5 to 0.7 for these tools. Sensitivity and specificity varied substantially across studies (eg, TUG, sensitivity:10%-83.3%, specificity:28.4%-96.6%).

CONCLUSIONS

Given that none of the falls risk assessment tools had sufficient predictive performance (AUC <0.7), other ways of assessing high falls risk among independently living older people in primary care should be investigated. For now, the most suitable way to assess falls risk in the primary care setting appears to involve asking patients about their falls history. Compared with the other five tools, the falls history requires the least amount of time, no expensive equipment, no training and no spatial adjustments. The clinical judgement of healthcare professionals continues to be most important, as it enables the identification of high falls risk even for patients with no falls history.

TRIAL REGISTRAION NUMBER

The Netherlands Trial Register, NL7917; Pre-results.

Modern technology against falls - A description of the MoTFall project

To meet future challenges from an older and physically less active population innovative solutions are needed. Modern Technology against Falls (MoTFall) aims to prevent falls, increase physical activity and improve self-rated health among older people by means of an information and communication technology based system. The project has developed technology-based solutions, focusing on person-centred care. A participatory research design was applied in the development of a mobile application, a wearable inertial movement measurement unit (IMMU), called the Snubblometer ('snubbla' is 'stumble' in Swedish) and a web-based education programme for health care professionals. The mobile application includes a fall risk index, exercises and information related to falls prevention. By linking the app to the IMMU, person-centred interventions can be developed and implemented in various health care settings and with different target populations. The IMMU has shown good validity and reliability for measuring postural sway and high sensitivity and specificity for measuring a near fall. The education programme is directed at non-graduate health care professionals in nursing homes and home care. The technical solutions have potential for use in research and in clinical practice.

Health status and health care utilization after discharge from geriatric in-hospital stay - description of a register-based study

Background

This study is the first part of a register-based research program with the overall aim to increase the knowledge of the health status among geriatric patients and to identify risk factors for readmission in this population. The aim of this study was two-fold: 1) to evaluate the validity of the study cohorts in terms of health care utilization in relation to regional cohorts; 2) to describe the study cohorts in terms of health status and health care utilization after discharge.

Methods

The project consist of two cohorts with data from patient records of geriatric in-hospital stays, health care utilization data from Stockholm Regional Healthcare Data Warehouse 6 months after discharge, socioeconomic data from Statistics Sweden. The 2012 cohort include 6710 patients and the 2016 cohort, 8091 patients; 64% are women, mean age is 84 (SD 8).

Results

Mean days to first visit in primary care was 12 (23) and 10 (19) in the 2012 and 2016 cohort, respectively. Readmissions to hospital was 38% in 2012 and 39% in 2016. The validity of the study cohorts was evaluated by comparing them with regional cohorts. The study cohorts were comparable in most cases but there were some significant differences between the study cohorts and the regional cohorts, especially regarding amount and type of primary care.

Conclusion

The study cohorts seem valid in terms of health care utilization compared to the regional cohorts regarding hospital care, but less so regarding primary care. This will be considered in the analyses and when interpreting data in future studies based on these study cohorts. Future studies will explore factors associated with health status and re-admissions in a population with multi-morbidity and disability.

Gait Flexibility among Older Persons Significantly More Impaired in Fallers Than Non-Fallers-A Longitudinal Study

Gait disorders are a relevant factor for falls and possible to measure with wearable devices. If a wearable sensor can detect differences in gait parameters between fallers and non-fallers has not yet been studied. The aim of this study was to measure and compare gait parameters, vestibular function, and balance performance between fallers and non-fallers among a group of older persons. Participants were senior members (n = 101) of a Swedish non-profit gymnastic association. Gait parameters were obtained using an inertial measurement unit (IMU) that the participants wore on the leg while walking an obstacle course and on an even surface. Vestibular function was assessed by the Head-shake test, the Head impulse test, and the Dix-Hallpike maneuver. Balance was assessed by the Timed Up and Go, the Timed Up and Go manual, and the Timed Up and Go cognitive tests. Falls during the 12-month follow-up period were monitored using fall diaries. Forty-two persons (41%) had fallen during the 12-month follow-up. Fallers had more limited ability to vary their gait (gait flexibility) than non-fallers (p < 0.001). No other differences between fallers and non-fallers were found. The use of gait flexibility, captured by an IMU, seems better for identifying future fallers among healthy older persons than Timed Up and Go or Timed Up and Go combined with a cognitive or manual task.

Performance-based clinical tests of balance and muscle strength used in young seniors: a systematic literature review

BACKGROUND

Many balance and strength tests exist that have been designed for older seniors, often aged ≥70 years. To guide strategies for preventing functional decline, valid and reliable tests are needed to detect early signs of functional decline in young seniors. Currently, little is known about which tests are being used in young seniors and their methodological quality. This two-step review aims to 1) identify commonly used tests of balance and strength, and 2) evaluate their measurement properties in young seniors.

METHODS

First, a systematic literature search was conducted in MEDLINE to identify primary studies that employed performance-based tests of balance and muscle strength, and which aspects of balance and strength these tests assess in young seniors aged 60-70. Subsequently, for tests used in ≥3 studies, a second search was performed to identify method studies evaluating their measurement properties. The quality of included method studies was evaluated using the Consensus-based Standards for selection of health Measurement Instruments (COSMIN) checklist.

RESULTS

Of 3454 articles identified, 295 met the inclusion criteria. For the first objective, 69 balance and 51 muscle strength tests were identified, with variations in administration mode and outcome reporting. Twenty-six balance tests and 15 muscle strength tests were used in ≥3 studies, with proactive balance tests and functional muscle power tests used most often. For the second objective, the search revealed 1880 method studies, of which nine studies (using 5 balance tests and 1 strength test) were included for quality assessment. The Timed Up and Go test was evaluated the most (4 studies), while the Community Balance and Mobility (CBM) scale was the second most assessed test (3 studies). For strength, one study assessed the reliability of the Five times sit-to-stand.

CONCLUSION

Commonly used balance and muscle strength tests in young seniors vary greatly with regards to administration mode and outcome reporting. Few studies have evaluated measurement properties of these tests when used in young seniors. There is a need for standardisation of existing tests to improve their informative value and comparability. For measuring balance, the CBM is a new and promising tool to detect even small balance deficits in balance in young seniors.

Downton Fall Risk Index during hospitalisation is associated with fall-related injuries after discharge: a longitudinal observational study

QUESTIONS

Among older people who are hospitalised, what is the predictive validity of the Downton Fall Risk Index (DFRI) in relation to fall-related injury after discharge? What is the predictive validity of the DFRI among males and females in this setting?

DESIGN

Prospective, longitudinal, observational study.

PARTICIPANTS

All hospital admissions during 2012 at three geriatric clinics in the Stockholm County Council were monitored. Patients aged>65years who did not die during the admission and who lived in the Stockholm County Council region were included.

OUTCOME MEASURES

The DFRI consists of five modules: previous falls, medication, sensory deficits, mental state, and gait. Three or more points indicate an increased fall risk. Data on DFRI, health status and medications were collected prior to discharge. Data regarding fall-related injuries were collected up to 6 months after discharge. Poisson multivariate regression analyses were conducted to evaluate the association between DFRI and fall-related injuries.

RESULTS

In total, 6650 patients were analysed. The cut-off≥3 points in the DFRI was significantly associated with fall-related injury when confounding variables were controlled for (IRR 1.94, 95% CI 1.60 to 2.38). Among individual modules, only previous falls (IRR 2.58, 95% CI 2.22 to 3.01) and unsafe gait (IRR 1.79, 95% CI 1.53 to 2.09) were associated with fall-related injuries. Stratified analyses showed a higher risk ratio for men compared to women regarding the DFRI, but the test for an interaction effect was not significant.

CONCLUSION

The risk of post-discharge fall-related injury is increased among older hospitalised people with an increased fall risk, according to the DFRI, especially those who had previous falls or unsafe gait. Although the DFRI tool is predictive, previous falls and gait are the measures that are most worthy of focus. [Mojtaba M, Alinaghizadeh H, Rydwik E (2018) Downton Fall Risk Index during hospitalisation is associated with fall-related injuries after discharge: a longitudinal observational study. Journal of Physiotherapy 64: 172-177].

Tools for assessing fall risk in the elderly: a systematic review and meta-analysis

The prevention of falls among the elderly is arguably one of the most important public health issues in today's aging society. The aim of this study was to assess which tools best predict the risk of falls in the elderly. Electronic searches were performed using Medline, EMBASE, the Cochrane Library, CINAHL, etc., using the following keywords: "fall risk assessment", "elderly fall screening", and "elderly mobility scale". The QUADAS-2 was applied to assess the internal validity of the diagnostic studies. Selected studies were meta-analyzed with MetaDisc 1.4. A total of 33 studies were eligible out of the 2,321 studies retrieved from selected databases. Twenty-six assessment tools for fall risk were used in the selected articles, and they tended to vary based on the setting. The fall risk assessment tools currently used for the elderly did not show sufficiently high predictive validity for differentiating high and low fall risks. The Berg Balance scale and Mobility Interaction Fall chart showed stable and high specificity, while the Downton Fall Risk Index, Hendrich II Fall Risk Model, St. Thomas's Risk Assessment Tool in Falling elderly inpatients, Timed Up and Go test, and Tinetti Balance scale showed the opposite results. We concluded that rather than a single measure, two assessment tools used together would better evaluate the characteristics of falls by the elderly that can occur due to a multitude of factors and maximize the advantages of each for predicting the occurrence of falls.

The Identification of a Threshold of Long Work Hours for Predicting Elevated Risks of Adverse Health Outcomes

Working long hours has been associated with adverse health outcomes. However, a definition of long work hours relative to adverse health risk has not been established. Repeated measures of work hours among approximately 2,000 participants from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (1986-2011), conducted in the United States, were retrospectively analyzed to derive statistically optimized cutpoints of long work hours that best predicted three health outcomes. Work-hours cutpoints were assessed for model fit, calibration, and discrimination separately for the outcomes of poor self-reported general health, incident cardiovascular disease, and incident cancer. For each outcome, the work-hours threshold that best predicted increased risk was 52 hours per week or more for a minimum of 10 years. Workers exposed at this level had a higher risk of poor self-reported general health (relative risk (RR) = 1.28; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.06, 1.53), cardiovascular disease (RR = 1.42; 95% CI: 1.24, 1.63), and cancer (RR = 1.62; 95% CI: 1.22, 2.17) compared with those working 35-51 hours per week for the same duration. This study provides the first health risk-based definition of long work hours. Further examination of the predictive power of this cutpoint on other health outcomes and in other study populations is needed.