1
|
Perez-Guerra UH, Macedo R, Manrique YP, Condori EA, Gonzáles HI, Fernández E, Luque N, Pérez-Durand MG, García-Herreros M. Seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) time-series model for milk production forecasting in pasture-based dairy cows in the Andean highlands. PLoS One 2023; 18:e0288849. [PMID: 37972120 PMCID: PMC10653396 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0288849] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/03/2023] [Accepted: 07/05/2023] [Indexed: 11/19/2023] Open
Abstract
Milk production in the Andean highlands is variable over space and time. This variability is related to fluctuating environmental factors such as rainfall season which directly influence the availability of livestock feeding resources. The main aim of this study was to develop a time-series model to forecast milk production in a mountainous geographical area by analysing the dynamics of milk records thorough the year. The study was carried out in the Andean highlands, using time-series models of monthly milk records collected routinely from dairy cows maintained in a controlled experimental farm over a 9-year period (2008-2016). Several statistical forecasting models were compared. The Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), and Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE) were used as selection criteria to compare models. A relation between monthly milk records and the season of the year was modelled using seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) methods to explore temporal redundancy (trends and periodicity). According to white noise residual test (Q = 13.951 and p = 0.052), Akaike Information Criterion and MAE, MAPE, and RMSE values, the SARIMA (1, 0, 0) x (2, 0, 0)12 time-series model resulted slightly better forecasting model compared to others. In conclusion, time-series models were promising, simple and useful tools for producing reasonably reliable forecasts of milk production thorough the year in the Andean highlands. The forecasting potential of the different models were similar and they could be used indistinctly to forecast the milk production seasonal fluctuations. However, the SARIMA model performed the best good predictive capacity minimizing the prediction interval error. Thus, a useful effective strategy has been developed by using time-series models to monitor milk production and alleviate production drops due to seasonal factors in the Andean highlands.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Uri H. Perez-Guerra
- Facultad de Medicina Veterinaria y Zootecnia, Universidad Nacional del Altiplano, Puno, Peru
| | - Rassiel Macedo
- Facultad de Ciencias Agrarias, Universidad Nacional San Antonio Abad del Cusco, Cusco, Peru
| | - Yan P. Manrique
- Facultad de Medicina Veterinaria y Zootecnia, Universidad Nacional del Altiplano, Puno, Peru
| | - Eloy A. Condori
- Facultad de Medicina Veterinaria y Zootecnia, Universidad Nacional del Altiplano, Puno, Peru
| | - Henry I. Gonzáles
- Facultad de Medicina Veterinaria y Zootecnia, Universidad Nacional del Altiplano, Puno, Peru
| | - Eliseo Fernández
- Facultad de Medicina Veterinaria y Zootecnia, Universidad Nacional del Altiplano, Puno, Peru
| | - Natalio Luque
- Facultad de Medicina Veterinaria y Zootecnia, Universidad Nacional del Altiplano, Puno, Peru
| | - Manuel G. Pérez-Durand
- Facultad de Medicina Veterinaria y Zootecnia, Universidad Nacional del Altiplano, Puno, Peru
| | - Manuel García-Herreros
- Instituto Nacional de Investigação Agrária e Veterinária, I. P. (INIAV, I.P.), Santarém, Portugal
| |
Collapse
|
2
|
El-Hady E, Behairy A, Goda NA, Abdelbaset-Ismail A, Ahmed AE, Al-Doaiss AA, Abd El-Rahim I, Alshehri MA, Aref M. Comparative physiological, morphological, histological, and AQP2 immunohistochemical analysis of the Arabian camels (Camelus dromedarius) and oxen kidney: Effects of adaptation to arid environments. FRONTIERS IN ANIMAL SCIENCE 2023. [DOI: 10.3389/fanim.2023.1078159] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 03/28/2023] Open
Abstract
Compared to other mammals, Arabian camels are ideal models for exploring the structural adaptations that enable camels to survive in arid environments. Thus, this study aimed to explore how evolutionary adaptation to arid conditions modifies the characteristics of the kidneys in Arabian camels (Camelus dromedarius) compared to oxen. Urine samples were physically and chemically analyzed. Harvested kidneys were subjected to topographical and fast spin echo magnetic resonance (FSE-MR) imaging. Histology, histomorphometry, and Aquaporin-2 (AQP2) expression by immunohistochemistry were also performed. Here, in dromedaries, sodium and potassium values in the urine were much higher (p=0.001, for both), whereas chloride was much lower (p=0.004) than the values of oxen. Compared with oxen, the level of the hormone aldosterone in serum was significantly lower (p=0.002), whereas creatinine and urea were significantly higher (p=0.005 and p=0.001, respectively). Uric acid in dromedaries and oxen did not differ significantly (p=0.349). Like sodium levels (p=0.001) in dromedary serum, chloride was also much higher (p=0.002) than in oxen. The average value of potassium was much lower (p=0.009) than that of oxen. Morphologically, anatomical and FSE MRI studies revealed that minor and major calyces were not found in dromedary kidneys. The renal pelvis was not found in oxen, and the major calyx was directly connected to the ureter. The dromedary kidney contained a wider medullary portion as well as increased diameters for renal corpuscles (RCs), proximal convoluted tubules (PCTs), and collecting tubules (CTs, p<0.05) compared with the oxen. We also noted that AQP2 was significantly expressed in dromedary nephron components, except for RCs, compared with oxen as shown by immunohistochemistry. Overall, these data strongly suggest that the dromedary has a greater ability to adapt to harsh desert conditions in terms of producing highly concentrated urine than oxen.
Collapse
|
3
|
Samsonova JV, Saushkin NY, Osipov AP. Dried Blood Spots technology for veterinary applications and biological investigations: technical aspects, retrospective analysis, ongoing status and future perspectives. Vet Res Commun 2022; 46:655-698. [PMID: 35771305 PMCID: PMC9244892 DOI: 10.1007/s11259-022-09957-w] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/19/2022] [Accepted: 06/13/2022] [Indexed: 11/25/2022]
Abstract
Dried Blood Spots (DBS) technology has become a valuable tool in medical studies, however, in veterinary and biological research DBS technology applications are still limited. Up-to-date no review has comprehensively integrated all the evidence existing across the fields, technologies and animal species. In this paper we summarize the current applications of DBS technology in the mentioned areas, and provide a scope of different types of dried sample carriers (cellulose and non-cellulose), sampling devices, applicable methods for analyte extraction and detection. Mammals, birds, insects and other species are represented as the study objects. Besides the blood, the review considers a variety of specimens, such as milk, saliva, tissue samples and others. The main applications of dried samples highlighted in the review include epidemiological surveys and monitoring for infections agents or specific antibodies for disease/vaccination control in households and wildlife. Besides the genetic investigations, the paper describes detection of environmental contaminants, pregnancy diagnosis and many other useful applications of animal dried samples. The paper also analyses dried sample stability and storage conditions for antibodies, viruses and other substances. Finally, recent developments and future research for DBS technology in veterinary medicine and biological sciences are discussed.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Jeanne V Samsonova
- Faculty of Chemistry, Lomonosov Moscow State University, Moscow, Russia.
| | | | | |
Collapse
|
4
|
Bayissa TN, Geerardyn M, Vanhauteghem D, Wakjira M, Janssens GPJ. Nutrient-related metabolite profiles explain differences in body composition and size in Nile tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus) from different lakes. Sci Rep 2021; 11:16824. [PMID: 34413370 PMCID: PMC8376951 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-021-96326-3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/08/2021] [Accepted: 08/09/2021] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
This study investigated how metabolite analysis can explain differences in tissue composition and size in fish from different habitats. We, therefore, studied Nile tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus) from three Ethiopian lakes (Gilgel Gibe, Ziway, and Langano) using dried bloodspot (DBS) analysis of carnitine esters and free amino acids. A total of sixty (N = 60) Nile tilapia samples were collected comprising twenty (n = 20) fish from each lake. The proximate composition of the targeted tissues (muscle, skin, gill, gut, and liver) were analyzed. The DBS samples were analyzed for acylcarnitine and free amino acid profiles using quantitative electrospray tandem mass spectrometry. Metabolite ratios were calculated from relevant biochemical pathways that could identify relative changes in nutrient metabolism. The mean weight of Nile tilapia sampled from each lake showed weight variation among the lakes, fish from Lake Ziway were largest (178 g), followed by Gilgel Gibe reservoir (134 g) and Lake Langano (118 g). Fish from Gilgel Gibe showed significantly higher fat composition in all tissues (P < 0.05) except the liver in which no significant variation was observed. The source of fish affected the tissue fat composition. Marked differences were observed in Nile tilapia metabolic activity between the lakes. For instance, the lower body weight and condition of the fish in Lake Langano coincided with several metabolite ratios pointing to a low flow of glucogenic substrate to the citric acid cycle. The low propionyl to acetylcarnitine ratio (C3:C2) in Gilgel Gibe fish is indicating that more of the available acetyl CoA is not led into the citric acid cycle, but instead will be used for fat synthesis. The metabolic markers for lipogenesis and metabolic rate could explain the high-fat concentration in several parts of the body composition of fish from Gilgel Gibe. Our results show that nutrition-related blood metabolite ratios are useful to understand the underlying metabolic events leading to the habitat-dependent differences in the growth of Nile tilapia, and by extension, other species.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Tokuma Negisho Bayissa
- Department of Nutrition, Genetics and Ethology, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Ghent University, Heidestraat 19, 9820, Merelbeke, Belgium.
- Department of Biology, College of Natural Sciences, Jimma University, P.O. Box 378, Jimma, Ethiopia.
| | - Michelle Geerardyn
- Department of Nutrition, Genetics and Ethology, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Ghent University, Heidestraat 19, 9820, Merelbeke, Belgium
| | - Donna Vanhauteghem
- Department of Nutrition, Genetics and Ethology, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Ghent University, Heidestraat 19, 9820, Merelbeke, Belgium
| | - Mulugeta Wakjira
- Department of Biology, College of Natural Sciences, Jimma University, P.O. Box 378, Jimma, Ethiopia
| | - Geert Paul Jules Janssens
- Department of Nutrition, Genetics and Ethology, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Ghent University, Heidestraat 19, 9820, Merelbeke, Belgium
| |
Collapse
|