Volume of cerebrospinal fluid drainage as a predictor for pretreatment aneurysmal rebleeding

A predictive model in patients with chronic hydrocephalus following aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage: a retrospective cohort study

Objective

Our aim was to develop a nomogram that integrates clinical and radiological data obtained from computed tomography (CT) scans, enabling the prediction of chronic hydrocephalus in patients with aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (aSAH).

Method

A total of 318 patients diagnosed with subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH) and admitted to the Department of Neurosurgery at the Affiliated People's Hospital of Jiangsu University between January 2020 and December 2022 were enrolled in our study. We collected clinical characteristics from the hospital's medical record system. To identify risk factors associated with chronic hydrocephalus, we conducted both univariate and LASSO regression models on these clinical characteristics and radiological features, accompanied with penalty parameter adjustments conducted through tenfold cross-validation. All features were then incorporated into multivariate logistic regression analyses. Based on these findings, we developed a clinical-radiological nomogram. To evaluate its discrimination performance, we conducted Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve analysis and calculated the Area Under the Curve (AUC). Additionally, we employed calibration curves, and utilized Brier scores as an indicator of concordance. Additionally, Decision Curve Analysis (DCA) was performed to determine the clinical utility of our models by estimating net benefits at various threshold probabilities for both training and testing groups.

Results

The study included 181 patients, with a determined chronic hydrocephalus prevalence of 17.7%. Univariate logistic regression analysis identified 11 potential risk factors, while LASSO regression identified 7 significant risk factors associated with chronic hydrocephalus. Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed three independent predictors for chronic hydrocephalus following aSAH: Periventricular white matter changes, External lumbar drainage, and Modified Fisher Grade. A nomogram incorporating these factors accurately predicted the risk of chronic hydrocephalus in both the training and testing cohorts. The AUC values were calculated as 0.810 and 0.811 for each cohort respectively, indicating good discriminative ability of the nomogram model. Calibration curves along with Hosmer-Lemeshow tests demonstrated excellent agreement between predicted probabilities and observed outcomes in both cohorts. Furthermore, Brier scores (0.127 for the training and 0.09 for testing groups) further validated the predictive performance of our nomogram model. The DCA confirmed that this nomogram provides superior net benefit across various risk thresholds when predicting chronic hydrocephalus. The decision curve demonstrated that when an individual's threshold probability ranged from 5 to 62%, this model is more effective in predicting the occurrence of chronic hydrocephalus after aSAH.

Conclusion

A clinical-radiological nomogram was developed to combine clinical characteristics and radiological features from CT scans, aiming to enhance the accuracy of predicting chronic hydrocephalus in patients with aSAH. This innovative nomogram shows promising potential in assisting clinicians to create personalized and optimal treatment plans by providing precise predictions of chronic hydrocephalus among aSAH patients.

Rebleeding following aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage before 'endovascular first' treatment: a retrospective case-control study of published scoring systems

BACKGROUND

Pre-treatment re-bleeding following aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (aSAH) affects up to 7.2% of patients even with ultra-early treatment within 24 hours. We retrospectively compared the utility of three published re-bleed prediction models and individual predictors between cases who re-bled matched to controls using size and parent vessel location from a cohort of patients treated in an ultra-early, 'endovascular first' manner.

METHODS

On retrospective analysis of our 9-year cohort of 707 patients suffering 710 episodes of aSAH, there were 53 episodes of pre-treatment re-bleeding (7.5%). Forty-seven cases who had a single culprit aneurysm were matched to 141 controls. Demographic, clinical and radiological data were extracted and predictive scores calculated. Univariate, multivariate, area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (AUROCC) and Kaplan-Meier (KM) survival curve analyses were performed.

RESULTS

The majority of patients (84%) were treated using endovascular techniques at a median 14.5 hours post-diagnosis. On AUROCC analysis the score of Liu et al. had minimal utility (C-statistic 0.553, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.463 to 0.643) while the risk score of Oppong et al. (C-statistic 0.645 95% CI 0.558 to 0.732) and the ARISE-extended score of van Lieshout et al. (C-statistic 0.53 95% CI 0.562 to 0.744) had moderate utility. On multivariate modeling, the World Federation of Neurosurgical Societies (WFNS) grade was the most parsimonious predictor of re-bleeding (C-statistic 0.740, 95% CI 0.664 to 0.816).

CONCLUSIONS

For aSAH patients treated in an ultra-early timeframe matched on size and parent vessel location, WFNS grade was superior to three published models for re-bleed prediction. Future re-bleed prediction models should incorporate the WFNS grade.

Clinical Impact and Predictors of Aneurysmal Rebleeding in Poor-Grade Subarachnoid Hemorrhage: Results From the National POGASH Registry

BACKGROUND

Scarce data are available regarding rebleeding predictors in poor-grade aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (aSAH).

OBJECTIVES

To investigate predictors and clinical impact of rebleeding in a national multicentric poor-grade aSAH.

METHODS

Retrospective analysis of prospectively collected data from the multicentric Poor Grade Aneurysmal Subarachnoid Hemorrhage Study Group (POGASH) registry of consecutive patients treated from January 1, 2015, to June 30th, 2021. Grading was defined as pretreatment World Federation of Neurological Surgeons grading scale IV-V. Ultra-early vasospasm (UEV) was defined as luminal narrowing of intracranial arteries not due to intrinsic disease. Rebleeding was defined as clinical deterioration with evidence of increased hemorrhage on subsequent computed tomography scans, fresh blood from the external ventricular drain, or deterioration before neuroradiological evaluation. Outcome was assessed by the modified Rankin Scale.

RESULTS

Among 443 consecutive World Federation of Neurological Surgeons grades IV-V patients with aSAH treated within a median of 5 (IQR 4-9) hours since onset, rebleeding occurred in 78 (17.6%). UEV (adjusted odds ratio [OR] 6.8, 95% CI 3.2-14.4; P < .001) and presence of dissecting aneurysm (adjusted OR 3.5, 95% CI 1.3-9.3; P = .011) independently predicted rebleeding while history of hypertension (adjusted OR 0.4, 95% CI 0.2-0.8; P = .011) independently reduced its chances. 143 (32.3) patients died during hospitalization. Rebleeding emerged, among others, as an independent predictor of intrahospital mortality (adjusted OR 2.2, 95% CI 1.2-4.1; P = .009).

CONCLUSION

UEV and presence of dissecting aneurysms are the strongest predictors of aneurysmal rebleeding. Their presence should be carefully evaluated in the acute management of poor-grade aSAH.

Emergency Medical Management of Aneurysmal Subarachnoid Hemorrhage

Aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage is a medical emergency that necessitates direct transfer to a tertiary referral center specialized in the diagnosis and treatment of this condition. The initial hours after aneurysmal rupture are critical for patients with aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage, both in terms of rebleeding and combating the effect of early brain injury. No good treatment options are available to reduce the risk of rebleeding before aneurysm occlusion. Lowering the blood pressure may reduce the risk of rebleeding but carries a risk of inducing delayed cerebral ischemia or aggravating the consequences of early brain injury. Early brain injury after aneurysmal rupture has an important effect on final clinical outcome. Proper cerebral perfusion is pivotal in these initial hours after aneurysmal rupture but threatened by complications such as neurogenic pulmonary edema and cardiac stunning, or by acute hydrocephalus, which may necessitate early drainage of cerebrospinal fluid.

Relationship between preoperative external ventricular drainage and preoperative rebleeding in aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage: A meta-analysis

OBJECTIVE

To analyze published evidence on the relationship between preoperative external ventricular drainage (preop-EVD) and preoperative rebleeding (preop-rebleeding) in aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (aSAH).

METHOD

A comprehensive search of three databases (PubMed, Ovid EMBASE, and The Cochrane Library) was conducted from their commencement to March 31, 2022. We collected studies reporting preop-EVD of rupture aneurysms while preop-rebleeding events were documented in these studies. We also extracted information on risk factors for preop-rebleeding from the studies and used Review Manager version 5.3 software to analyze.

RESULTS

A total of 3671 cases from 14 articles were enrolled in this meta-analysis. Preop-rebleeding rate was 11.04 % (106/960) and 9.22 % (250/2711) in preop-EVD group and control group, respectively. The study lacked power to conclude a clinically significant increase in preop-rebleeding risk (OR=1.60, 95 %CI:0.82-3.22). Fisher> 2 (OR=1.86), modified Fisher> 2 (OR=7.57), World Federation of Neurological Surgeons (WFNS)> 2 (OR=4.39) and aneurysm size > 1 cm (OR=3.01) were risk factors of preop-rebleeding. Patients with Hunt-Hess (HH)> 2 showed a higher preop-rebleeding trend compared to HH≤ 2, but the result did not reach a statistical difference (OR=6.79, P = 0.06). No difference in preop-rebleeding risk between anterior circulation aneurysms and posterior circulation aneurysms. Hydrocephalus had also been shown to be unrelated to higher preop-rebleeding rate.

CONCLUSIONS

Current evidence does not support that preop-EVD significantly increases the risk of rebleeding prior to aneurysm repair. Patients with poorer clinical status on admission and aneurysms size > 1 cm are at a higher risk of preop-rebleeding.

Predictive factors for pre-intervention rebleeding in aneurysmal subarachnoid haemorrhage: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Rebleeding before intervention is a devastating complication of aneurysmal subarachnoid haemorrhage (aSAH). It often occurs early and is associated with poor outcomes. We present a systematic review and meta-analysis to identify potential predictors of rebleeding in aSAH. A database search identified studies detailing the occurrence of pre-intervention rebleeding in aSAH, and 809 studies were screened. The association between rebleeding and a variety of demographic, clinical, and radiological factors was examined using random effects meta-analyses. Fifty-six studies totalling 33,268 patients were included. Rebleeding occurred in 3,223/33,268 patients (11.1%, 95%CI 9.4-13), with risk decreasing by approximately 0.2% per year since 1981. Systolic blood pressure (SBP) during admission was higher in patients who rebled compared with those who did not (MD 7.4 mmHg, 95%CI 2.2 - 12.7), with increased risk in cohorts with SBP > 160 mmHg (RR 2.12, 95%CI 1.35-3.34), but not SBP > 140 mmHg. WFNS Grades IV-V (RR 2.05, 95%CI 1.13-3.74) and Hunt-Hess grades III-V (RR 2.12, 95%CI 1.38-3.28) were strongly associated with rebleeding. Fisher grades IV (RR 2.24, 95%CI 1.45-3.49) and III-IV (RR 2.05, 95%CI 1.17-3.6) were also associated with an increased risk. Awareness of potential risk factors for rebleeding is important when assessing patients with aSAH to ensure timely management in high-risk cases. Increased SBP during admission, especially > 160 mmHg, poorer clinical grades, and higher radiological grades are associated with an increased risk. These results may also aid in designing future studies assessing interventions aimed at reducing the risk of rebleeding.

Oxidative Stress and Intracranial Hypertension after Aneurysmal Subarachnoid Hemorrhage

Intracranial hypertension is a common phenomenon in patients with aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (aSAH). Elevated intracranial pressure (ICP) plays an important role in early brain injuries and is associated with unfavorable outcomes. Despite advances in the management of aSAH, there is no consensus about the mechanisms involved in ICP increases after aSAH. Recently, a growing body of evidence suggests that oxidative stress (OS) may play a crucial role in physio-pathological changes following aSAH, which may also contribute to increased ICP. Herein, we discuss a potential relation between increased ICP and OS, and resultantly propose antioxidant mechanisms as a potential therapeutic strategy for the treatment of ICP elevation following aSAH.

Development and Internal Validation of the ARISE Prediction Models for Rebleeding After Aneurysmal Subarachnoid Hemorrhage

BACKGROUND

Aneurysmal rerupture is one of the most important determents for outcome after aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage and still occurs frequently because individual risk assessment is challenging given the heterogeneity in patient characteristics and aneurysm morphology.

OBJECTIVE

To develop and internally validate a practical prediction model to estimate the risk of aneurysmal rerupture before aneurysm closure.

METHODS

We designed a multinational cohort study of 2 prospective hospital registries and 3 retrospective observational studies to predict the risk of computed tomography confirmed rebleeding within 24 and 72 hours after ictus. We assessed predictors with Cox proportional hazard regression analysis.

RESULTS

Rerupture occurred in 269 of 2075 patients. The cumulative incidence equaled 7% and 11% at 24 and 72 hours, respectively. Our base model included hypertension, World Federation of Neurosurgical Societies scale, Fisher grade, aneurysm size, and cerebrospinal fluid drainage before aneurysm closure and showed good discrimination with an optimism corrected c-statistic of 0.77. When we extend the base model with aneurysm irregularity, the optimism-corrected c-statistic increased to 0.79.

CONCLUSION

Our prediction models reliably estimate the risk of aneurysm rerupture after aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage using predictor variables available upon hospital admission. An online prognostic calculator is accessible at https://www.evidencio.com/models/show/2626 .

Intermittent CSF drainage and rapid EVD weaning approach after subarachnoid hemorrhage: association with fewer VP shunts and shorter length of stay

OBJECTIVE

There is variability and uncertainty about the optimal approach to the management and discontinuation of an external ventricular drain (EVD) after subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH). Evidence from single-center randomized trials suggests that intermittent CSF drainage and rapid EVD weans are safe and associated with shorter ICU length of stay (LOS) and fewer EVD complications. However, a recent survey revealed that most neurocritical care units across the United States employ continuous CSF drainage with a gradual wean strategy. Therefore, the authors sought to determine the optimal EVD management approach at their institution.

METHODS

The authors reviewed records of 200 patients admitted to their institution from 2010 to 2016 with aneurysmal SAH requiring an EVD. In 2014, the neurocritical care unit of the authors' institution revised the internal EVD management guidelines from a continuous CSF drainage with gradual wean approach (continuous/gradual) to an intermittent CSF drainage with rapid EVD wean approach (intermittent/rapid). The authors performed a retrospective multivariable analysis to compare outcomes before and after the guideline change.

RESULTS

The authors observed a significant reduction in ventriculoperitoneal (VP) shunt rates after changing to an intermittent CSF drainage with rapid EVD wean approach (13% intermittent/rapid vs 35% continuous/gradual, OR 0.21, p = 0.001). There was no increase in delayed VP shunt placement at 3 months (9.3% vs 8.6%, univariate p = 0.41). The intermittent/rapid EVD approach was also associated with a shorter mean EVD duration (10.2 vs 15.6 days, p < 0.001), shorter ICU LOS (14.2 vs 16.9 days, p = 0.001), shorter hospital LOS (18.2 vs 23.7 days, p < 0.0001), and lower incidence of a nonfunctioning EVD (15% vs 30%, OR 0.29, p = 0.006). The authors found no significant differences in the rates of symptomatic vasospasm (24.6% vs 20.2%, p = 0.52) or ventriculostomy-associated infections (1.3% vs 8.8%, OR 0.30, p = 0.315) between the 2 groups.

CONCLUSIONS

An intermittent CSF drainage with rapid EVD wean approach is associated with fewer VP shunt placements, fewer complications, and shorter LOS compared to a continuous CSF drainage with gradual EVD wean approach. There is a critical need for prospective multicenter studies to determine if the authors' experience is generalizable to other centers.

Periprocedural management of patients with subarachnoid hemorrhage

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Anesthesiologists and intensivists may be involved in the management of aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (aSAH) patients at various stages of care. This article will review the recent advances in the periprocedural management of aSAH patients.

RECENT FINDINGS

New scoring systems to assess gravity and prognosis of aSAH patients have been evaluated and proposed. Rebleeding still remains, with early aneurysmal treatment, a major challenge in the first hours of aSAH management. In the last decades, the treatment of the aSAH has shifted from clipping to coiling and more recently, the use of flow diversion technique has been introduced in selected patients. Although these improvements allow treatment of more complex aneurysms, they have implications for the anesthesiologist, including requiring the management of anticoagulation with its inherent risks. Even though knowledge, monitoring, and management of postprocedural phase of aSAH patients has improved, vasospasm and cerebral-delayed ischemia still remain the major and devastating complications in the postoperative course of aSAH patients.

SUMMARY

Despite recent progress in the scoring, diagnosis, and treatment of aSAH patients, the periprocedural management of these patients is still a major challenge for anesthesiologists and intensivists, who are involved from the first phase of the aneurysm rupture through the postoperative phases and vasospasm period.

Aneurysm rebleeding before therapy: a predictable disaster?

OBJECTIVE

Current guidelines for subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH) include early aneurysm treatment within 72 hours after ictus. However, aneurysm rebleeding remains a crucial complication of SAH. The aim of this study was to identify independent predictors allowing early stratification of SAH patients for rebleeding risk.

METHODS

All patients admitted to the authors' institution with ruptured aneurysms during a 14-year period were eligible for this retrospective study. Demographic and radiographic parameters, aneurysm characteristics, medical history, and medications as well as baseline parameters at admission (blood pressure and laboratory parameters) were evaluated in univariate and multivariate analyses. A novel risk score was created using independent risk factors.

RESULTS

Data from 984 cases could be included into the final analysis. Aneurysm rebleeding occurred in 58 cases (5.9%), and in 48 of these cases (82.8%) rerupture occurred within 24 hours after SAH. Of over 30 tested associations, preexisting arterial hypertension (p = 0.02; adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 2.56, 1 score point), aneurysm location at the basilar artery (p = 0.001, aOR 4.5, 2 score points), sac size ≥ 9 mm (p = 0.04, aOR 1.9, 1 score point), presence of intracerebral hemorrhage (p = 0.001, aOR 4.29, 2 score points), and acute hydrocephalus (p < 0.001, aOR 6.27, 3 score points) independently predicted aneurysm rebleeding. A score built upon these parameters (0-9 points) showed a good diagnostic accuracy (p < 0.001, area under the curve 0.780) for rebleeding prediction.

CONCLUSIONS

Certain patient-, aneurysm-, and SAH-specific parameters can reliably predict aneurysm rerupture. A score developed according to these parameters might help to identify individuals that would profit from immediate aneurysm occlusion.