Costs and Outcomes of Integrated Human African Trypanosomiasis Surveillance System Using Rapid Diagnostic Tests, Democratic Republic of the Congo

Health economic evaluation of strategies to eliminate gambiense human African trypanosomiasis in the Mandoul disease focus of Chad

Human African trypanosomiasis, caused by the gambiense subspecies of Trypanosoma brucei (gHAT), is a deadly parasitic disease transmitted by tsetse. Partners worldwide have stepped up efforts to eliminate the disease, and the Chadian government has focused on the previously high-prevalence setting of Mandoul. In this study, we evaluate the economic efficiency of the intensified strategy that was put in place in 2014 aimed at interrupting the transmission of gHAT, and we make recommendations on the best way forward based on both epidemiological projections and cost-effectiveness. In our analysis, we use a dynamic transmission model fit to epidemiological data from Mandoul to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of combinations of active screening, improved passive screening (defined as an expansion of the number of health posts capable of screening for gHAT), and vector control activities (the deployment of Tiny Targets to control the tsetse vector). For cost-effectiveness analyses, our primary outcome is disease burden, denominated in disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and costs, denominated in 2020 US$. Although active and passive screening have enabled more rapid diagnosis and accessible treatment in Mandoul, the addition of vector control provided good value-for-money (at less than $750/DALY averted) which substantially increased the probability of reaching the 2030 elimination target for gHAT as set by the World Health Organization. Our transmission modelling and economic evaluation suggest that the gains that have been made could be maintained by passive screening. Our analysis speaks to comparative efficiency, and it does not take into account all possible considerations; for instance, any cessation of ongoing active screening should first consider that substantial surveillance activities will be critical to verify the elimination of transmission and to protect against the possible importation of infection from neighbouring endemic foci.

A modelling assessment of short- and medium-term risks of programme interruptions for gambiense human African trypanosomiasis in the DRC

Gambiense human African trypanosomiasis (gHAT) is a deadly vector-borne, neglected tropical disease found in West and Central Africa targeted for elimination of transmission (EoT) by 2030. The recent pandemic has illustrated how it can be important to quantify the impact that unplanned disruption to programme activities may have in achieving EoT. We used a previously developed model of gHAT fitted to data from the Democratic Republic of the Congo, the country with the highest global case burden, to explore how interruptions to intervention activities, due to e.g. COVID-19, Ebola or political instability, could impact progress towards EoT and gHAT burden. We simulated transmission and reporting dynamics in 38 regions within Kwilu, Mai Ndombe and Kwango provinces under six interruption scenarios lasting for nine or twenty-one months. Included in the interruption scenarios are the cessation of active screening in all scenarios and a reduction in passive detection rates and a delay or suspension of vector control deployments in some scenarios. Our results indicate that, even under the most extreme 21-month interruption scenario, EoT is not predicted to be delayed by more than one additional year compared to the length of the interruption. If existing vector control deployments continue, we predict no delay in achieving EoT even when both active and passive screening activities are interrupted. If passive screening remains as functional as in 2019, we expect a marginal negative impact on transmission, however this depends on the strength of passive screening in each health zone. We predict a pronounced increase in additional gHAT disease burden (morbidity and mortality) in many health zones if both active and passive screening were interrupted compared to the interruption of active screening alone. The ability to continue existing vector control during medical activity interruption is also predicted to avert a moderate proportion of disease burden.

Performance of clinical signs and symptoms, rapid and reference laboratory diagnostic tests for diagnosis of human African trypanosomiasis by passive screening in Guinea: a prospective diagnostic accuracy study

BACKGROUND

Passive diagnosis of human African trypanosomiasis (HAT) at the health facility level is a major component of HAT control in Guinea. We examined which clinical signs and symptoms are associated with HAT, and assessed the performance of selected clinical presentations, of rapid diagnostic tests (RDT), and of reference laboratory tests on dried blood spots (DBS) for diagnosing HAT in Guinea.

METHOD

The study took place in 14 health facilities in Guinea, where 2345 clinical suspects were tested with RDTs (HAT Sero-K-Set, rHAT Sero-Strip, and SD Bioline HAT). Seropositives underwent parasitological examination (reference test) to confirm HAT and their DBS were tested in indirect enzyme-linked immunoassay (ELISA)/Trypanosoma brucei gambiense, trypanolysis, Loopamp Trypanosoma brucei Detection kit (LAMP) and m18S quantitative PCR (qPCR). Multivariable regression analysis assessed association of clinical presentation with HAT. Sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values of key clinical presentations, of the RDTs and of the DBS tests for HAT diagnosis were determined.

RESULTS

The HAT prevalence, as confirmed parasitologically, was 2.0% (48/2345, 95% CI: 1.5-2.7%). Odds ratios (OR) for HAT were increased for participants with swollen lymph nodes (OR = 96.7, 95% CI: 20.7-452.0), important weight loss (OR = 20.4, 95% CI: 7.05-58.9), severe itching (OR = 45.9, 95% CI: 7.3-288.7) or motor disorders (OR = 4.5, 95% CI: 0.89-22.5). Presence of at least one of these clinical presentations was 75.6% (95% CI: 73.8-77.4%) specific and 97.9% (95% CI: 88.9-99.9%) sensitive for HAT. HAT Sero-K-Set, rHAT Sero-Strip, and SD Bioline HAT were respectively 97.5% (95% CI: 96.8-98.1%), 99.4% (95% CI: 99.0-99.7%) and 97.9% (95% CI: 97.2-98.4%) specific, and 100% (95% CI: 92.5-100.0%), 59.6% (95% CI: 44.3-73.3%) and 93.8% (95% CI: 82.8-98.7%) sensitive for HAT. The RDT's positive and negative predictive values ranged from 45.2-66.7% and 99.2-100% respectively. All DBS tests had specificities ≥ 92.9%. While LAMP and m18S qPCR sensitivities were below 50%, trypanolysis and ELISA/T.b. gambiense had sensitivities of 85.3% (95% CI: 68.9-95.0%) and 67.6% (95% CI: 49.5-82.6%).

CONCLUSIONS

Presence of swollen lymph nodes, important weight loss, severe itching or motor disorders are simple but accurate clinical criteria for HAT referral in HAT endemic areas in Guinea. Diagnostic performances of HAT Sero-K-Set and SD Bioline HAT are sufficient for referring positives to microscopy. Trypanolysis on DBS may discriminate HAT patients from false RDT positives. Trial registration The trial was registered under NCT03356665 in clinicaltrials.gov (November 29, 2017, retrospectively registered https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT03356665 ).

Cost-effectiveness of sleeping sickness elimination campaigns in five settings of the Democratic Republic of Congo

Gambiense human African trypanosomiasis (gHAT) is marked for elimination of transmission by 2030, but the disease persists in several low-income countries. We couple transmission and health outcomes models to examine the cost-effectiveness of four gHAT elimination strategies in five settings – spanning low- to high-risk – of the Democratic Republic of Congo. Alongside passive screening in fixed health facilities, the strategies include active screening at average or intensified coverage levels, alone or with vector control with a scale-back algorithm when no cases are reported for three consecutive years. In high or moderate-risk settings, costs of gHAT strategies are primarily driven by active screening and, if used, vector control. Due to the cessation of active screening and vector control, most investments (75-80%) are made by 2030 and vector control might be cost-saving while ensuring elimination of transmission. In low-risk settings, costs are driven by passive screening, and minimum-cost strategies consisting of active screening and passive screening lead to elimination of transmission by 2030 with high probability.

Gambiense human African trypanosomiasis has been targeted for elimination of transmission by 2030. Here, the authors assess the cost-effectiveness of elimination strategies in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and find that those which lead to elimination of transmission might also be considered cost-effective by conventional thresholds.

Update of transmission modelling and projections of gambiense human African trypanosomiasis in the Mandoul focus, Chad

BACKGROUND

In recent years, a programme of vector control, screening and treatment of gambiense human African trypanosomiasis (gHAT) infections led to a rapid decline in cases in the Mandoul focus of Chad. To represent the biology of transmission between humans and tsetse, we previously developed a mechanistic transmission model, fitted to data between 2000 and 2013 which suggested that transmission was interrupted by 2015. The present study outlines refinements to the model to: (1) Assess whether elimination of transmission has already been achieved despite low-level case reporting; (2) quantify the role of intensified interventions in transmission reduction; and (3) predict the trajectory of gHAT in Mandoul for the next decade under different strategies.

METHOD

Our previous gHAT transmission model for Mandoul was updated using human case data (2000-2019) and a series of model refinements. These include how diagnostic specificity is incorporated into the model and improvements to the fitting method (increased variance in observed case reporting and how underreporting and improvements to passive screening are captured). A side-by-side comparison of fitting to case data was performed between the models.

RESULTS

We estimated that passive detection rates have increased due to improvements in diagnostic availability in fixed health facilities since 2015, by 2.1-fold for stage 1 detection, and 1.5-fold for stage 2. We find that whilst the diagnostic algorithm for active screening is estimated to be highly specific (95% credible interval (CI) 99.9-100%, Specificity = 99.9%), the high screening and low infection levels mean that some recently reported cases with no parasitological confirmation might be false positives. We also find that the focus-wide tsetse reduction estimated through model fitting (95% CI 96.1-99.6%, Reduction = 99.1%) is comparable to the reduction previously measured by the decline in tsetse catches from monitoring traps. In line with previous results, the model suggests that transmission was interrupted in 2015 due to intensified interventions.

CONCLUSIONS

We recommend that additional confirmatory testing is performed in Mandoul to ensure the endgame can be carefully monitored. More specific measurement of cases, would better inform when it is safe to stop active screening and vector control, provided there is a strong passive surveillance system in place.