Explaining variation in emergency admissions: a mixed-methods study of emergency and urgent care systems

Receiving home care forms and the risk for emergency department visits in community-dwelling Dutch older adults, a retrospective cohort study using national data

BACKGROUND

Older adults receiving home care have a higher risk of visiting the emergency department (ED) than community-dwelling older adults not receiving home care. This may result from a higher incidence of comorbidities and reduced functional autonomy in home care recipients. Since people receive different types of home care because of their different comorbidities and autonomy profiles, it is possible that distinguishing between the form of home care can help identify subpopulations with different risks for ED visits and help develop targeted interventions. This study aimed to compare the risk of visiting the ED in older adults receiving different forms of home care with those living at home without receiving home care in a national cohort in one year.

METHODS

A retrospective cohort study using claims data collected in 2019 on the Dutch population aged ≥ 65 years (N = 3,314,440) was conducted. Participants were classified as follows: no claimed home care (NO), household help (HH), personal care (PC), HH + PC, and nursing home care at home (NHH). The primary outcome was the number of individuals that visited the ED. Secondary outcomes were the number of individuals whose home care changed, who were institutionalized, or who died. Exploratory logistic regression was applied.

RESULTS

There were 2,758,093 adults in the NO group, 131,260 in the HH group, 154,462 in the PC group, 96,526 in the HH + PC group, and 34,612 in the NHH group. More ED visits were observed in the home care groups than in the NO group, and this risk increased to more than two-fold for the PC groups. There was a significant change to a more intensive form of home care, institutionalization, or death in all groups.

CONCLUSIONS

Distinguishing between the form of home care older adults receive identifies subpopulations with different risks for ED visits compared with community-dwelling older adults not receiving home care on a population level. Home care transitions are frequent and mostly involve more intensive care or death. Although older adults not receiving home care have a lower risk of ED visits, they contribute most to the absolute volume of ED visits.

Trial protocol: Feasibility of neuromodulation with connectivity-guided intermittent theta-burst stimulation for improving cognition in multiple sclerosis

Cognitive impairment in multiple sclerosis (MS) can adversely impact participation in employment, activities of daily living, and wider society. It affects 40-70% of people living with MS (pwMS). There are few effective treatments for cognitive impairment in people with MS. Neuromodulation with intermittent theta-burst stimulation (iTBS) has potential for treating cognitive impairment in pwMS. This single-centre mixed-methods feasibility randomised controlled trial (NCT04931953) will assess feasibility, acceptability, and tolerability of procedures used for applying iTBS for improving cognitive performance in pwMS. Participants will be randomised into three intervention groups with varying lengths of iTBS treatment (from 1 to 4 weeks) and a sham-control group. Quantitative data will be collected at three time points (baseline, end of intervention, and 8-week follow-up). End of the intervention semi-structured interviews will explore the views and experiences of the participants receiving the intervention, analysed using framework analysis. Quantitative and qualitative data will be synthesised to explore the impact of the iTBS intervention. Ethical approval has been received from the Health Research Authority (21/LO/0506) and recruitment started in June 2022. The results will inform the design of an RCT of the efficacy of iTBS as a therapeutic intervention for cognitive impairment in pwMS.

A causal loop diagram of older persons' emergency department visits and interactions of its contributing factors: a group model building approach

PURPOSE

Understanding the etiology of older persons' emergency department (ED) visits is highly needed. Many contributing factors have been identified, however, the role their interactions play remains unclear. Causal loop diagrams (CLDs), as conceptual models, can visualize these interactions and therefore may elucidate their role. This study aimed to better understand why people older than 65 years of age visit the ED in Amsterdam by capturing the interactions of contributing factors as perceived by an expert group in a CLD through group model building (GMB).

METHODS

Six qualitative online focus group like sessions, known as GMB, were conducted with a purposefully recruited interdisciplinary expert group of nine that resulted in a CLD that depicted their shared view.

RESULTS

The CLD included four direct contributing factors, 29 underlying factors, 66 relations between factors and 18 feedback loops. The direct factors included, 'acute event', 'frailty', 'functioning of the healthcare professional' and 'availability of alternatives for the ED'. All direct factors showed direct as well as indirect contribution to older persons' ED visits in the CLD through interaction.

CONCLUSION

Functioning of the healthcare professional and availability of alternatives for the ED were considered pivotal factors, together with frailty and acute event. These factors, as well as many underlying factors, showed extensive interaction in the CLD, thereby contributing directly and indirectly to older persons' ED visits. This study helps to better understand the etiology of older persons' ED visits and in specific the way contributing factors interact. Furthermore, its CLD can help to find solutions for the increasing numbers of older adults in the ED.

Associations between self-reported healthcare disruption due to covid-19 and avoidable hospital admission: evidence from seven linked longitudinal studies for England

OBJECTIVES

To examine whether there is an association between people who experienced disrupted access to healthcare during the covid-19 pandemic and risk of an avoidable hospital admission.

DESIGN

Observational analysis using evidence from seven linked longitudinal cohort studies for England.

SETTING

Studies linked to electronic health records from NHS Digital from 1 March 2020 to 25 August 2022. Data were accessed using the UK Longitudinal Linkage Collaboration trusted research environment.

PARTICIPANTS

Individual level records for 29 276 people.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Avoidable hospital admissions defined as emergency hospital admissions for ambulatory care sensitive and emergency urgent care sensitive conditions.

RESULTS

9742 participants (weighted percentage 35%, adjusted for sample structure of longitudinal cohorts) self-reported some form of disrupted access to healthcare during the covid-19 pandemic. People with disrupted access were at increased risk of any (odds ratio 1.80, 95% confidence interval 1.39 to 2.34), acute (2.01, 1.39 to 2.92), and chronic (1.80, 1.31 to 2.48) ambulatory care sensitive hospital admissions. For people who experienced disrupted access to appointments (eg, visiting their doctor or an outpatient department) and procedures (eg, surgery, cancer treatment), positive associations were found with measures of avoidable hospital admissions.

CONCLUSIONS

Evidence from linked individual level data shows that people whose access to healthcare was disrupted were more likely to have a potentially preventable hospital admission. The findings highlight the need to increase healthcare investment to tackle the short and long term implications of the pandemic, and to protect treatments and procedures during future pandemics.

A mixed-methods feasibility case series of a job retention vocational rehabilitation intervention for people with multiple sclerosis

PURPOSE

To ascertain the feasibility and acceptability of delivering a job retention vocational rehabilitation intervention [MSVR] for people with multiple sclerosis (pwMS) in a community setting. Secondary objectives included determining whether MSVR was associated with changes in quality of life, fatigue, mood, cognition, workplace accommodations, work instability, work self-efficacy, and goal attainment.

METHODS

Single-centre mixed-methods feasibility case series.

RESULTS

15 pwMS and three employers received 8.36 (SD = 4.48) and 1.94 (SD = 0.38) hours of MSVR respectively over three months. The intervention predominantly addressed managing cognition, fatigue, and negotiating reasonable accommodations. Four healthcare professionals were recruited to clarify clinical information.The intervention was feasible to deliver, and there was a significant positive impact on goal attainment immediately following MSVR (t(14) = 7.44, p = .0001, d = 1.9), and at months 3 (t(13) = 4.81, p = .0001, d = 1.28), 6 (t(11) = 4.45, p = .001, d = 1.28), and 12 (t(9) = 5.15, p = .001, d = -2.56). There was no impact on quality of life, fatigue, mood, cognition, workplace accommodations, work instability, and work self-efficacy. In post-intervention interviews, participants reported that MSVR was acceptable. Four themes were derived regarding the context, employer engagement, empowerment through knowledge, and intervention components and attributes.

CONCLUSION

It was feasible and acceptable to deliver MSVR. Participants better understood their MS, became more confident managing problems at work and attained their work-related goals.IMPLICATIONS FOR REHABILITATIONPeople with multiple sclerosis (MS) experience problems at work because of the interaction between symptoms and environmental factors (e.g., co-workers' attitudes).Vocational rehabilitation for people with MS and their employers should be tailored in terms of content and intensity.People with MS can be empowered at work by learning about MS and how their symptoms fluctuate over time.Understanding legal responsibilities and examples of accommodations at work can be beneficial for employers.

Supporting the ambulance service to safely convey fewer patients to hospital by developing a risk prediction tool: Risk of Adverse Outcomes after a Suspected Seizure (RADOSS)-protocol for the mixed-methods observational RADOSS project

INTRODUCTION

Ambulances services are asked to further reduce avoidable conveyances to emergency departments (EDs). Risk of Adverse Outcomes after a Suspected Seizure seeks to support this by: (1) clarifying the risks of conveyance and non-conveyance, and (2) developing a risk prediction tool for clinicians to use 'on scene' to estimate the benefits an individual would receive if conveyed to ED and risks if not.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

Mixed-methods, multi-work package (WP) project. For WP1 and WP2 we shall use an existing linked data set that tracks urgent and emergency care (UEC) use of persons served by one English regional ambulance service. Risk tools are specific to clinical scenarios. We shall use suspected seizures in adults as an exemplar.WP1: Form a cohort of patients cared for a seizure by the service during 2019/2020. It, and nested Knowledge Exchange workshops with clinicians and service users, will allow us to: determine the proportions following conveyance and non-conveyance that die and/or recontact UEC system within 3 (/30) days; quantify the proportion of conveyed incidents resulting in 'avoidable ED attendances' (AA); optimise risk tool development; and develop statistical models that, using information available 'on scene', predict the risk of death/recontact with the UEC system within 3 (/30) days and the likelihood of an attendance at ED resulting in an AA.WP2: Form a cohort of patients cared for a seizure during 2021/2022 to 'temporally' validate the WP1 predictive models.WP3: Complete the 'next steps' workshops with stakeholders. Using nominal group techniques, finalise plans to develop the risk tool for clinical use and its evaluation.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

WP1a and WP2 will be conducted under database ethical approval (IRAS 307353) and Confidentiality Advisory Group (22/CAG/0019) approval. WP1b and WP3 have approval from the University of Liverpool Central Research Ethics Committee (11450). We shall engage in proactive dissemination and knowledge mobilisation to share findings with stakeholders and maximise evidence usage.

Health system influences on potentially avoidable hospital admissions by secondary mental health service use: A national ecological study

Objectives

Potentially avoidable hospital admissions (PAAs) are costly to health services and potentially harmful for patients. This study aimed to compare area-level PAA rates among people using and not using secondary mental health services in England and to identify health system features that may influence between-area PAA variation.

Methods

National ecological study using linked English hospital admissions and secondary mental health services data (2016–2018). We calculated two-year average age-sex standardised area-level PAA rates according to primary admission diagnoses for 12 physical conditions, among, first, secondary mental health service users with any non-organic diagnosis, and, second, people not in contact with secondary mental health services. We used penalised regression analyses to identify predictors of area-level variation in PAA rates.

Results

Area-level PAA rates were over four times greater in the mental health group, at 7,594 per 100,000 population compared to 1,819 per 100,000 in the comparator group. Common predictors of variation were greater density of older age groups (lower PAA rates), higher underlying population morbidity of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and, to a lesser extent, urbanity (higher PAA rates). For both groups, health system factors such as the number of general practitioners per capita or ambulance despatch rates were significant but weak predictors of variation. Mental health diagnosis data were available for half of secondary mental health care records only and sensitivity analyses found that urbanity remained the sole significant predictor for PAAs in this group.

Conclusions

Findings support the need for improved management of physical conditions for secondary mental health service users. Understanding and predicting variation in PAAs among mental health service users is constrained by availability of data on mental health diagnosis, physical health care and needs.

Reducing inequality in avoidable emergency admissions: Case studies of local health care systems in England using a realist approach

OBJECTIVE

People in disadvantaged areas are more likely to have an avoidable emergency hospital admission. Socio-economic inequality in avoidable emergency hospital admissions is monitored in England. Our aim was to inform local health care purchasing and planning by identifying recent health care system changes (or other factors), as reported by local health system leaders, that might explain narrowing or widening trends.

METHODS

Case studies were undertaken in one pilot and at five geographically distinct local health care systems (Clinical Commissioning Groups, CCGs), identified as having consistently increasing or decreasing inequality. Local settings were explored through discussions with CCG officials and stakeholders to identify potential local determinants. Data were analysed using a realist evaluation approach to generate context-mechanism-outcome (CMO) configurations.

RESULTS

Of the five geographically distinct CCGs, two had narrowing inequality, two widening, and one narrowing inequality, which widened during the project. None of the CCGs had designed a large-scale package of service changes with the explicit aim of reducing socio-economic inequality in avoidable emergency admissions, and local decision makers were unfamiliar with their own trends. Potential primary and community care determinants included: workforce, case finding and exclusion, proactive care co-ordination for patients with complex needs, and access and quality. Potential commissioning determinants included: data use and incentives, and targeting of services. Other potential determinants included changes in care home services, national A&E targets, and wider issues - such as public services financial constraints, residential gentrification, and health care expectations.

CONCLUSIONS

We did not find any bespoke initiatives that explained the inequality trends. The trends were more likely due to an interplay of multiple health care and wider system factors. Local decision makers need greater awareness, understanding and support to interpret, use and act upon inequality indicators. They are unlikely to find simple, cheap interventions to reduce inequalities in avoidable emergency admissions. Rather, long-term multifaceted interventions are required that embed inequality considerations into mainstream decision making.

Factors influencing hospital conveyance following ambulance attendance for people with diabetes: A retrospective observational study

AIM

To assess variables contributing to hospital conveyance for people with diabetes and the interactions between them. A secondary aim was to generate hypotheses for further research into interventions that might reduce avoidable hospital admissions.

METHODS

A national retrospective data set including 30 999 diabetes-related callouts from the Scottish Ambulance Service was utilized covering a 5-year period between 2013 and 2017. The relationship between diabetes-related hospital conveyance and seven potential risk factors was analysed. Independent variables included: age, gender, deprivation, paramedic attendance, treatment at the scene, first blood glucose measurement and day of the week.

RESULTS

In Scotland, hyperglycaemia was associated with a higher number of people being conveyed to hospital than hypoglycaemia (49.8% with high blood glucose vs. 39.3% with low glucose, P ≤ 0.0001). Treatment provided in pre-hospital care was associated with reduced conveyance rates (47.3% vs. 58.2% where treatment was not administered, P ≤ 0.0001). Paramedic attendance was also associated with reduced conveyance to hospital (51.4% vs. 59.5% where paramedic was not present, P ≤ 0.0001). Paramedic attendance in hyperglycaemic cases was associated with significantly reduced odds of conveyance (odds ratio 0.52, P ≤ 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

A higher rate of conveyance associated with hyperglycaemic cases indicates a need for more resources, education and training in this area. Higher conveyance rates were also associated with no paramedic being present and no treatment being administered. This suggests that paramedic attendance may be crucial in reducing avoidable admissions. Developing and validating protocols for pre-hospital services and treatment may help to reduce hospital conveyance rates.

Models of generalist and specialist care in smaller hospitals in England: a mixed-methods study

Background

The increasing number of older, complex patients who require emergency admission to hospital has prompted calls for better models of medical generalist care, especially for smaller hospitals, whose size constrains resources and staffing.

Objective

To investigate the strengths and weaknesses of the current models of medical generalism used in smaller hospitals from patient, professional and service perspectives.

Methods

The design was a mixed-methods study. Phase 1 was a scoping and mapping exercise to create a typology of models of care, which was then explored further through 11 case studies. Phase 2 created a classification using the Hospital Episode Statistics of acute medical ‘generalist’ and ‘specialist’ work and described differences in workload and explored the links between case mix, typology and length of stay and between case mix and skill mix. Phase 3 analysed the relationships between models of care and patient-level costs. Phase 4 examined the strengths and weaknesses of the models of care through focus groups, a discrete choice experiment and an exploration of the impact of typology on other outcomes.

Results

In total, 50 models of care were explored through 48 interviews. A typology was constructed around generalist versus specialist patterns of consultant working. Twenty-five models were deployed by 48 hospitals, and no more than four hospitals used any one model of care. From the patient perspective, analysis of Hospital Episode Statistics data of 1.9 million care episodes found that the differences in case mix between hospitals were relatively small, with 65–70% of episodes accounted for by 20 case types. The skill mix of hospital staff varied widely; there were no relationships with case mix. Patients exhibited a preference for specialist care in the discrete choice experiment but indicated in focus groups that overall hospital quality was more important. From a service perspective, qualitative work found that models of care were contingent on complex constellations of factors, including staffing, the local hospital environment and policy imperatives. Neither the model of care nor the case mix accounted for variability in the length of stay (no associations were significant at p < 0.05). No significant differences were found in the costs of the models. Professionally, the preferences of doctors for specialist versus generalist work depended on their experiences of providing care and were associated with a healthy organisational culture and a co-operative approach to managing emergency work. Concepts of medical generalism were found to be complex and difficult to define, with theoretical models differing markedly from models in action.

Limitations

Smaller hospitals in multisite trusts were excluded, potentially leading to sample bias. The rapidly changing nature of the models limited the analysis of typology against outcomes.

Conclusions

The case mix of smaller hospitals was dominated by patients with presentations amenable to generalist approaches to care; however, there was no evidence to support any particular pattern of consultant working. Matching hospital staff to better meet local need and the creation of more collaborative working environments appear more likely to improve care in smaller hospitals than changing models.

Future work

The exploration of the relationships between workforce, measures of hospital culture, models of care, costs and outcomes in both smaller and larger hospitals is urgently required to underpin service reforms.

Study registration

This study is registered as Integrated Research Application System project ID 191393.

Funding

This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Services and Delivery Research programme and will be published in full in Health Services and Delivery Research; Vol. 9, No. 4. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Seizure first aid training for people with epilepsy attending emergency departments and their significant others: the SAFE intervention and feasibility RCT

Background

No seizure first aid training intervention exists for people with epilepsy who regularly attend emergency departments and their significant others, despite such an intervention’s potential to reduce clinically unnecessary and costly visits.

Objectives

The objectives were to (1) develop Seizure first Aid training For Epilepsy (SAFE) by adapting a broader intervention and (2) determine the feasibility and optimal design of a definitive randomised controlled trial to test SAFE’s efficacy.

Design

The study involved (1) the development of an intervention informed by a co-design approach with qualitative feedback and (2) a pilot randomised controlled trial with follow-ups at 3, 6 and 12 months and assessments of treatment fidelity and the cost of SAFE’s delivery.

Setting

The setting was (1) third-sector patient support groups and professional health-care organisations and (2) three NHS emergency departments in England.

Participants

Participants were (1) people with epilepsy who had visited emergency departments in the prior 2 years, their significant others and emergency department, paramedic, general practice, commissioning, neurology and nursing representatives and (2) people with epilepsy aged ≥ 16 years who had been diagnosed for ≥ 1 year and who had made two or more emergency department visits in the prior 12 months, and one of their significant others. Emergency departments identified ostensibly eligible people with epilepsy from attendance records and patients confirmed their eligibility.

Interventions

Participants in the pilot randomised controlled trial were randomly allocated 1 : 1 to SAFE plus treatment as usual or to treatment as usual only.

Main outcome measures

Consent rate and availability of routine data on emergency department use at 12 months were the main outcome measures. Other measures of interest included eligibility rate, ease with which people with epilepsy could be identified and routine data secured, availability of self-reported emergency department data, self-reported emergency department data’s comparability with routine data, SAFE’s effect on emergency department use, and emergency department use in the treatment as usual arm, which could be used in sample size calculations.

Results

(1) Nine health-care professionals and 23 service users provided feedback that generated an intervention considered to be NHS feasible and well positioned to achieve its purpose. (2) The consent rate was 12.5%, with 53 people with epilepsy and 38 significant others recruited. The eligibility rate was 10.6%. Identifying people with epilepsy from attendance records was resource intensive for emergency department staff. Those recruited felt more stigmatised because of epilepsy than the wider epilepsy population. Routine data on emergency department use at 12 months were secured for 94.1% of people with epilepsy, but the application process took 8.5 months. Self-reported emergency department data were available for 66.7% of people with epilepsy, and people with epilepsy self-reported more emergency department visits than were captured in routine data. Most participants (76.9%) randomised to SAFE received the intervention. The intervention was delivered with high fidelity. No related serious adverse events occurred. Emergency department use at 12 months was lower in the SAFE plus treatment as usual arm than in the treatment as usual only arm, but not significantly so. Calculations indicated that a definitive trial would need ≈ 674 people with epilepsy and ≈ 39 emergency department sites.

Limitations

Contrary to patient statements on recruitment, routine data secured at the pilot trial’s end indicated that ≈ 40% may not have satisfied the inclusion criterion of two or more emergency department visits.

Conclusions

An intervention was successfully developed, a pilot randomised controlled trial conducted and outcome data secured for most participants. The consent rate did not satisfy a predetermined ‘stop/go’ level of ≥ 20%. The time that emergency department staff needed to identify eligible people with epilepsy is unlikely to be replicable. A definitive trial is currently not feasible.

Future work

Research to more easily identify and recruit people from the target population is required.

Trial registration

Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN13871327.

Funding

This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Services and Delivery Research programme and will be published in full in Health Services and Delivery Research; Vol. 8, No. 39. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Factors other than medical acuity that influence hospitalisation: a scoping review protocol

INTRODUCTION

There is evidence that patients are admitted to the hospital with low-acuity medical issues, though delineation of the underlying factors has not been comprehensively explored. This scoping review will provide an overview of the existing literature regarding factors outside of acute medical illness that influence hospitalisation of adults. The review will also seek to provide a review of common language and definitions used in the research on this phenomenon.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

The scoping review framework, outlined by Arksey and O'Malley and expanded on by Levac et al, will be used as the basis for this study. A systematic search of seven databases (PubMed, CINAHL, PsycINFO, EMBASE, Web of Science, Sociological Abstracts and Social Science Abstracts) will be conducted to identify existing literature followed by a standardised two-phase, two-reviewer process to select relevant papers for inclusion. Relevant studies will investigate adult non-psychiatric hospital admission plus at least one additional factor unrelated to medical acuity. Details of the work will be extracted, including the terminology used and perspectives included. An assessment of methodological quality will be performed using a tool designed for mixed-methods systematic review.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

The scoping review protocol delineates a transparent and rigorous review process, the results of which will be disseminated through peer-reviewed publication and presentation at relevant local or national meetings. The study does not require ethics approval as the data will be accumulated through the review of published, peer-reviewed literature and grey literature.

International migrants' use of emergency departments in Europe compared with non-migrants' use: a systematic review

Background

International migration across Europe is increasing. High rates of net migration may be expected to increase pressure on healthcare services, including emergency services. However, the extent to which immigration creates additional pressure on emergency departments (EDs) is widely debated. This review synthesizes the evidence relating to international migrants' use of EDs in European Economic Area (EEA) countries as compared with that of non-migrants.

Methods

MEDLINE, EMBASE, CINAHL, The Cochrane Library and The Web of Science were searched for the years 2000-16. Studies reporting on ED service utilization by international immigrants, as compared with non-migrants, were eligible for inclusion. Included studies were restricted to those conducted in EEA countries and English language publications only.

Results

Twenty-two articles (from six host countries) were included. Thirteen of 18 articles reported higher volume of ED service use by immigrants, or some immigrant sub-groups. Migrants were seen to be significantly more likely to present to the ED during unsocial hours and more likely than non-migrants to use the ED for low-acuity presentations. Differences in presenting conditions were seen in 4/7 articles; notably a higher rate of obstetric and gynaecology presentations among migrant women.

Conclusions

The principal finding of this review is that migrants utilize the ED more, and differently, to the native populations in EEA countries. The higher use of the ED for low-acuity presentations and the use of the ED during unsocial hours suggest that barriers to primary healthcare may be driving the higher use of these emergency services although further research is needed.

Drivers of potentially avoidable emergency admissions in Ireland: an ecological analysis

BACKGROUND

Many emergency admissions are deemed to be potentially avoidable in a well-performing health system.

OBJECTIVE

To measure the impact of population and health system factors on county-level variation in potentially avoidable emergency admissions in Ireland over the period 2014-2016.

METHODS

Admissions data were used to calculate 2014-2016 age-adjusted emergency admission rates for selected conditions by county of residence. Negative binomial regression was used to identify which a priori factors were significantly associated with emergency admissions for these conditions and whether these factors were also associated with total/other emergency admissions. Standardised incidence rate ratios (IRRs) associated with a 1 SD change in risk factors were reported.

RESULTS

Nationally, potentially avoidable emergency admissions for the period 2014-2016 (266 395) accounted for 22% of all emergency admissions. Of the population factors, a 1 SD change in the county-level unemployment rate was associated with a 24% higher rate of potentially avoidable emergency admissions (IRR: 1.24; 95% CI 1.04 to 1.41). Significant health system factors included emergency admissions with length of stay equal to 1 day (IRR: 1.20; 95% CI 1.11 to 1.30) and private health insurance coverage (IRR: 0.92; 95% CI 0.89 to 0.96). The full model accounted for 50% of unexplained variation in potentially avoidable emergency admissions in each county. Similar results were found across total/other emergency admissions.

CONCLUSION

The results suggest potentially avoidable emergency admissions and total/other emergency admissions are primarily driven by socioeconomic conditions, hospital admission policy and private health insurance coverage. The distinction between potentially avoidable and all other emergency admissions may not be as useful as previously believed when attempting to identify the causes of regional variation in emergency admission rates.

Understanding variation in ambulance service non-conveyance rates: a mixed methods study

Background

In England in 2015/16, ambulance services responded to nearly 11 million calls. Ambulance Quality Indicators show that half of the patients receiving a response by telephone or face to face were not conveyed to an emergency department. A total of 11% of patients received telephone advice only. A total of 38% of patients were sent an ambulance but were not conveyed to an emergency department. For the 10 large ambulance services in England, rates of calls ending in telephone advice varied between 5% and 17%. Rates of patients who were sent an ambulance but not conveyed to an emergency department varied between 23% and 51%. Overall non-conveyance rates varied between 40% and 68%.

Objective

To explain variation in non-conveyance rates between ambulance services.

Design

A sequential mixed methods study with five work packages.

Setting

Ten of the 11 ambulance services serving > 99% of the population of England.

Methods

(1) A qualitative interview study of managers and paramedics from each ambulance service, as well as ambulance commissioners (totalling 49 interviews undertaken in 2015). (2) An analysis of 1 month of routine data from each ambulance service (November 2014). (3) A qualitative study in three ambulance services with different published rates of calls ending in telephone advice (120 hours of observation and 20 interviews undertaken in 2016). (4) An analysis of routine data from one ambulance service linked to emergency department attendance, hospital admission and mortality data (6 months of 2013). (5) A substudy of non-conveyance for people calling 999 with breathing problems.

Results

Interviewees in the qualitative study identified factors that they perceived to affect non-conveyance rates. Where possible, these perceptions were tested using routine data. Some variation in non-conveyance rates between ambulance services was likely to be due to differences in the way rates were calculated by individual services, particularly in relation to telephone advice. Rates for the number of patients sent an ambulance but not conveyed to an emergency department were associated with patient-level factors: age, sex, deprivation, time of call, reason for call, urgency level and skill level of attending crew. However, variation between ambulance services remained after adjustment for patient-level factors. Variation was explained by ambulance service-level factors after adjustment for patient-level factors: the percentage of calls attended by advanced paramedics [odds ratio 1.05, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.04 to 1.07], the perception of ambulance service staff and commissioners that advanced paramedics were established and valued within the workforce of an ambulance service (odds ratio 1.84, 95% CI 1.45 to 2.33), and the perception of ambulance service staff and commissioners that senior management was risk averse regarding non-conveyance within an ambulance service (odds ratio 0.78, 95% CI 0.63 to 0.98).

Limitations

Routine data from ambulance services are complex and not consistently collected or analysed by ambulance services, thus limiting the utility of comparative analyses.

Conclusions

Variation in non-conveyance rates between ambulance services in England could be reduced by addressing variation in the types of paramedics attending calls, variation in how advanced paramedics are used and variation in perceptions of the risk associated with non-conveyance within ambulance service management. Linking routine ambulance data with emergency department attendance, hospital admission and mortality data for all ambulance services in the UK would allow comparison of the safety and appropriateness of their different non-conveyance rates.

Funding

The National Institute for Health Research Health Services and Delivery Research programme.

Mental Health and Drivers of Need in Emergent and Non-Emergent Emergency Department (ED) Use: Do Living Location and Non-Emergent Care Sources Matter?

Emergency department (ED) utilization has increased due to factors such as admissions for mental health conditions, including suicide and self-harm. We investigate direct and moderating influences on non-emergent ED utilization through the Behavioral Model of Health Services Use. Through logistic regression, we examined correlates of ED use via 2014 New York State Department of Health Statewide Planning and Research Cooperative System outpatient data. Consistent with the primary hypothesis, mental health admissions were associated with emergent use across models, with only a slight decrease in effect size in rural living locations. Concerning moderating effects, Spanish/Hispanic origin was associated with increased likelihood for emergent ED use in the rural living location model, and non-emergent ED use for the no non-emergent source model. 'Other' ethnic origin increased the likelihood of emergent ED use for rural living location and no non-emergent source models. The findings reveal 'need', including mental health admissions, as the largest driver for ED use. This may be due to mental healthcare access, or patients with mental health emergencies being transported via first responders to the ED, as in the case of suicide, self-harm, manic episodes or psychotic episodes. Further educating ED staff on this patient population through gatekeeper training may ensure patients receive the best treatment and aid in driving access to mental healthcare delivery changes.

How can frontline expertise and new models of care best contribute to safely reducing avoidable acute admissions? A mixed-methods study of four acute hospitals

Background

Hospital emergency admissions have risen annually, exacerbating pressures on emergency departments (EDs) and acute medical units. These pressures have an adverse impact on patient experience and potentially lead to suboptimal clinical decision-making. In response, a variety of innovations have been developed, but whether or not these reduce inappropriate admissions or improve patient and clinician experience is largely unknown.

Aims

To investigate the interplay of service factors influencing decision-making about emergency admissions, and to understand how the medical assessment process is experienced by patients, carers and practitioners.

Methods

The project used a multiple case study design for a mixed-methods analysis of decision-making about admissions in four acute hospitals. The primary research comprised two parts: value stream mapping to measure time spent by practitioners on key activities in 108 patient pathways, including an embedded study of cost; and an ethnographic study incorporating data from 65 patients, 30 carers and 282 practitioners of different specialties and levels. Additional data were collected through a clinical panel, learning sets, stakeholder workshops, reading groups and review of site data and documentation. We used a realist synthesis approach to integrate findings from all sources.

Findings

Patients’ experiences of emergency care were positive and they often did not raise concerns, whereas carers were more vocal. Staff’s focus on patient flow sometimes limited time for basic care, optimal communication and shared decision-making. Practitioners admitted or discharged few patients during the first hour, but decision-making increased rapidly towards the 4-hour target. Overall, patients’ journey times were similar, although waiting before being seen, for tests or after admission decisions, varied considerably. The meaning of what constituted an ‘admission’ varied across sites and sometimes within a site. Medical and social complexity, targets and ‘bed pressure’, patient safety and risk, each influenced admission/discharge decision-making. Each site responded to these pressures with different initiatives designed to expedite appropriate decision-making. New ways of using hospital ‘space’ were identified. Clinical decision units and observation wards allow potentially dischargeable patients with medical and/or social complexity to be ‘off the clock’, allowing time for tests, observation or safe discharge. New teams supported admission avoidance: an acute general practitioner service filtered patients prior to arrival; discharge teams linked with community services; specialist teams for the elderly facilitated outpatient treatment. Senior doctors had a range of roles: evaluating complex patients, advising and training juniors, and overseeing ED activity.

Conclusions

This research shows how hospitals under pressure manage complexity, safety and risk in emergency care by developing ‘ground-up’ initiatives that facilitate timely, appropriate and safe decision-making, and alternative care pathways for lower-risk, ambulatory patients. New teams and ‘off the clock’ spaces contribute to safely reducing avoidable admissions; frontline expertise brings value not only by placing senior experienced practitioners at the front door of EDs, but also by using seniors in advisory roles. Although the principal limitation of this research is its observational design, so that causation cannot be inferred, its strength is hypothesis generation. Further research should test whether or not the service and care innovations identified here can improve patient experience of acute care and safely reduce avoidable admissions.

Funding

The National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Services and Delivery Research programme (project number 10/1010/06). This research was supported by the NIHR Collaboration for Leadership in Applied Health Research and Care South West Peninsula.