The Effect of Host Immunity on Predicting the Mortality of Carbapenem-Resistant Organism Infection

Use of ROC curve analysis for prediction gives fallacious results: Use predictivity-based indices

ABSTRACT

The area under the ROC curve is frequently used for assessing the predictive efficacy of a model, and the Youden index is commonly used to provide the optimal cut-off. Both are misleading tools for predictions. A ROC curve is drawn for the sensitivity of a quantitative test against its (1 - specificity) at different values of the test. Both sensitivity and specificity are retrospective in nature as these are indicators of correct classification of already known conditions. They are not indicators of future events and are not valid for predictions. Predictivity intimately depends on the prevalence which may be ignored by sensitivity and specificity. We explain this fallacy in detail and illustrate with several examples that the actual predictivity could differ greatly from the ROC curve-based predictivity reported by many authors. The predictive efficacy of a test or a model is best assessed by the percentage correctly predicted in a prospective framework. We propose predictivity-based ROC curves as tools for providing predictivities at varying prevalence in different populations. For optimal cut-off for prediction, in place of the Youden index, we propose a P-index where the sum of positive and negative predictivities is maximum after subtracting 1. To conclude, for correctly assessing adequacy of a prediction models, predictivity-based ROC curves should be used instead of the usual sensitivity-specificity-based ROC curves and the P-index should replace the Youden index.

Clinical Outcomes and Risk Factors for Death in Critically Ill Patients with Carbapenem-Resistant Klebsiella pneumoniae Treated with Ceftazidime-Avibactam: A Retrospective Study

Purpose

Carbapenem-Resistant Klebsiella pneumoniae (CRKP) is a significant public health threat, because it is associated with substantial morbidity and mortality. However, the risk factors associated with treatment failure of ceftazidime-avibactam (CAZ-AVI) and the need for CAZ-AVI-based combination remain unclear.

Methods

We conducted a retrospective study of critically ill patients (age: > 18 years) diagnosed with CRKP infections and treated with CAZ-AVI for at least 24 h between June 2020 and December 2022 at Henan Provincial People's Hospital.

Results

This study included a total of 103 patients who received CAZ-AVI. Of these, 91 (88.3%) patients received the standard dosage of 2.5 g every q8h, while only 20 (19.4%) received monotherapy. The Kaplan-Meier curves showed that the all-cause 30-day mortality was significantly higher among patients who experienced septic shock than those who did not. There was no significant difference in mortality between monotherapy and combination therapy. Dose reduction of CAZ-AVI was associated with a significantly increased mortality rate. Independent risk factors for the 30-day mortality included higher APACHE II score (HR: 1.084, 95% CI: 1.024-1.147, p = 0.005) and lower lymphocyte count (HR: 0.247, 95% CI: 0.093-0.655, p = 0.005). Conversely, a combination therapy regimen containing carbapenems was associated with lower mortality (HR: 0.273, 95% CI: 0.086-0.869, p = 0.028).

Conclusion

Our study suggests that CAZ-AVI provides clinical benefits in terms of survival and clinical response in critically ill patients with CRKP infection. A higher APACHE II score and lower lymphocyte count were associated with 30-day mortality, while the combination therapy regimen containing carbapenems was the only protective factor. CAZ-AVI dose reduction was associated with an increased mortality rate. Futher large-scale studies are needed to validate these findings.

Genomic Analysis Revealed the International and Domestic Transmission of Carbapenem-Resistant Klebsiella pneumoniae in Chinese Pediatric Patients

Carbapenem-resistant Klebsiella pneumoniae (CRKP) poses a severe threat to public health worldwide. Based on the genomic analysis of 198 CRKP isolates collected at Shanghai Children's Medical Center over the last 8 years (2013 to 2021), we reported the clinical risk, genetic diversity, and prevalence of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) of CRKP in pediatric patients at the genomic level. We found that the blaNDM genes were the predominant carbapenemase genes, followed by blaKPC-2 and blaIMP. All of the carbapenemases were disseminated mainly by four main types of plasmids, among which one plasmid was associated with a higher risk of bloodstream infections. Notably, we tracked disease outbreaks caused by recent introductions of ST14 CRKP from southeast Asia or western countries, and we reported frequent, repetitive introductions of ST11 from other domestic hospitals that were associated interhospital movement of the patients. The cocirculation of K. pneumoniae and AMR plasmids in hospitals highlights the importance of genome sequencing for monitoring and controlling CRKP infections. IMPORTANCE Carbapenem-resistant Klebsiella pneumoniae (CRKP) infection in pediatric patients differs from that in adults patients in terms of both genetic and phenotypic features, which remain to be elucidated. We present a summary of prevalent CRKP isolates from Chinese pediatric patients over 8 years, demonstrating the prevalence and clinical importance of New Delhi metallo-β-lactamase genes in pediatric patients, mainly describing the genomic features of two predominant CRKP clones (ST11 and ST14) in Chinese children, and identifying four carbapenemase-encoding plasmids that contribute to the transmission of most carbapenemase genes in hospitals. Overall, our research provides valuable information about the international and domestic transmission of CRKP isolates that are prevalent in Chinese children and shows the urgent need for genome sequencing-based surveillance systems for monitoring the transmission of CRKP.

Identification and Preliminary Hierarchisation of Selected Risk Factors for Carbapenemase-Producing Enterobacteriaceae (CPE) Colonisation: A Prospective Study

Drug-resistant bacteria are one of the main reasons of deaths worldwide. One of the significant groups of these bacteria are carbapenemase-producing Enterobacteriaceae (CPE). The goal of this cross-sectional study was the identification and hierarchisation of selected risk factors of CPE colonisation. To achieve that goal, we examined 236 patients for the presence of CPE using the standard method of anal swabs. The patients were divided into three groups: hospitalised patients; those chronically dialysed; those requiring home care. A very thorough medical interview was conducted for comorbidities. A statistical analysis relationship between comorbidities and locations of the patient's stay with the positive result of the culture was investigated. A significant relationship was demonstrated between the positive result of the culture and confirmed dementia, heart failure, connective tissue diseases, and established irregularities in the level of leukocytes. No significant relationship was demonstrated with the remaining comorbidities considered in the study. Afterwards these factors were compared for importance for the assessment of risk of a positive swab result-the biggest importance was found in establishing connective tissue disease. Next were dementia, abnormal values of leukocytes, heart failure, and at the end, stay at the orthopaedics ward. Conclusions: The study identified asymptomatic carriers of CPE, which demonstrates the need for further studies in order to identify infection risk factors. The connective tissue diseases are the most important variable which enable the prediction of CPE colonisation-the next ones are dementia, abnormal values of leukocytes, heart failure, and stay at the orthopaedics ward.

Ecotoxicological Effects of Aflatoxins on Earthworms under Different Temperature and Moisture Conditions

Aflatoxin contamination remains one of the most important threats to food safety and human health. Aflatoxins are mainly found in soil, decaying plant material and food storage systems and are particularly abundant during drought stress. Regulations suggest the disposal of aflatoxin-contaminated crops by incorporation into the soil for natural degradation. However, the fate and consequences of aflatoxin in soil and on soil organisms providing essential ecological services remain unclear and could potentially pose a risk to soil health and productivity. The protection of soil biodiversity and ecosystem services are essential for the success of the declared United Nations Decade on Ecosystem Restoration. The focus of this study was to investigate the toxicological consequences of aflatoxins to earthworms’ survival, growth, reproduction and genotoxicity under different temperature and moisture conditions. Results indicated an insignificant effect of aflatoxin concentrations between 10 and 100 µg/kg on the survival, growth and reproduction but indicated a concentration-dependent increase in DNA damage at standard testing conditions. However, the interaction of the toxin with different environmental conditions, particularly low moisture, resulted in significantly reduced reproduction rates and increased DNA damage in earthworms.

Lymphocyte-Related Immunological Indicators for Stratifying Mycobacterium tuberculosis Infection

Background

Easily accessible tools that reliably stratify Mycobacterium tuberculosis (MTB) infection are needed to facilitate the improvement of clinical management. The current study attempts to reveal lymphocyte-related immune characteristics of active tuberculosis (ATB) patients and establish immunodiagnostic model for discriminating ATB from latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI) and healthy controls (HC).

Methods

A total of 171 subjects consisted of 54 ATB, 57 LTBI, and 60 HC were consecutively recruited at Tongji hospital from January 2019 to January 2021. All participants were tested for lymphocyte subsets, phenotype, and function. Other examination including T-SPOT and microbiological detection for MTB were performed simultaneously.

Results

Compared with LTBI and HC, ATB patients exhibited significantly lower number and function of lymphocytes including CD4⁺ T cells, CD8⁺ T cells and NK cells, and significantly higher T cell activation represented by HLA-DR and proportion of immunosuppressive cells represented by Treg. An immunodiagnostic model based on the combination of NK cell number, HLA-DR⁺CD3⁺ T cells, Treg, CD4⁺ T cell function, and NK cell function was built using logistic regression. Based on receiver operating characteristic curve analysis, the area under the curve (AUC) of the diagnostic model was 0.920 (95% CI, 0.867-0.973) in distinguishing ATB from LTBI, while the cut-off value of 0.676 produced a sensitivity of 81.48% (95% CI, 69.16%-89.62%) and specificity of 91.23% (95% CI, 81.06%-96.20%). Meanwhile, AUC analysis between ATB and HC according to the diagnostic model was 0.911 (95% CI, 0.855-0.967), with a sensitivity of 81.48% (95% CI, 69.16%-89.62%) and a specificity of 90.00% (95% CI, 79.85%-95.34%).

Conclusions

Our study demonstrated that the immunodiagnostic model established by the combination of lymphocyte-related indicators could facilitate the status differentiation of MTB infection.

Lymphocyte Non-Specific Function Detection Facilitating the Stratification of Mycobacterium tuberculosis Infection

Background

Inadequate tuberculosis (TB) diagnostics, especially for discrimination between active TB (ATB) and latent TB infection (LTBI), are major hurdle in the reduction of the disease burden. The present study aims to investigate the role of lymphocyte non-specific function detection for TB diagnosis in clinical practice.

Methods

A total of 208 participants including 49 ATB patients, 64 LTBI individuals, and 95 healthy controls were recruited at Tongji hospital from January 2019 to October 2020. All subjects were tested with lymphocyte non-specific function detection and T-SPOT assay.

Results

Significantly positive correlation existed between lymphocyte non-specific function and phytohemagglutinin (PHA) spot number. CD4⁺ T cell non-specific function showed the potential for differentiating patients with negative T-SPOT results from those with positive T-SPOT results with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.732 (95% CI, 0.572-0.893). The non-specific function of CD4⁺ T cells, CD8⁺ T cells, and NK cells was found significantly lower in ATB patients than in LTBI individuals. The AUCs presented by CD4⁺ T cell non-specific function, CD8⁺ T cell non-specific function, and NK cell non-specific function for discriminating ATB patients from LTBI individuals were 0.845 (95% CI, 0.767-0.925), 0.770 (95% CI, 0.683-0.857), and 0.691 (95% CI, 0.593-0.789), respectively. Application of multivariable logistic regression resulted in the combination of CD4⁺ T cell non-specific function, NK cell non-specific function, and culture filtrate protein-10 (CFP-10) spot number as the optimally diagnostic model for differentiating ATB from LTBI. The AUC of the model in distinguishing between ATB and LTBI was 0.939 (95% CI, 0.898-0.981). The sensitivity and specificity were 83.67% (95% CI, 70.96%-91.49%) and 90.63% (95% CI, 81.02%-95.63%) with the threshold as 0.57. Our established model showed superior performance to TB-specific antigen (TBAg)/PHA ratio in stratifying TB infection status.

Conclusions

Lymphocyte non-specific function detection offers an attractive alternative to facilitate TB diagnosis. The three-index diagnostic model was proved to be a potent tool for the identification of different events involved in TB infection, which is helpful for the treatment and management of patients.

Systemic Inflammation Associated with Immune Reconstitution Inflammatory Syndrome in Persons Living with HIV

Antiretroviral therapy (ART) has represented a major advancement in the care of people living with HIV (PLWHH), resulting in significant reductions in morbidity and mortality through immune reconstitution and attenuation of homeostatic disruption. Importantly, restoration of immune function in PLWH with opportunistic infections occasionally leads to an intense and uncontrolled cytokine storm following ART initiation known as immune reconstitution inflammatory syndrome (IRIS). IRIS occurrence is associated with the severe and rapid clinical deterioration that results in significant morbidity and mortality. Here, we detail the determinants underlying IRIS development in PLWH, compiling the available knowledge in the field to highlight details of the inflammatory responses in IRIS associated with the most commonly reported opportunistic pathogens. This review also highlights gaps in the understanding of IRIS pathogenesis and summarizes therapeutic strategies that have been used for IRIS.