A Risk-Stratification Machine Learning Framework for the Prediction of Coronary Artery Disease Severity: Insights From the GESS Trial

AI-CADR: Artificial Intelligence Based Risk Stratification of Coronary Artery Disease Using Novel Non-Invasive Biomarkers

Coronary artery disease (CAD) is one of the most common causes of sudden cardiac arrest, accounting for a large percentage of global mortality. A timely diagnosis and detection may save a person's life. The research suggests a methodological framework for non-invasive risk stratification based on information only possible after invasive coronary angiography. Novel clinical, chemical, and molecular cardiac biomarkers were used as input features from an especially collected dataset. Following a thorough evaluative search in the biomarker feature space, the optimum parameters for classifier or regression technique (regressor) were selected using K-fold cross-validation. Ten machine learning (ML) classifiers were employed in classification tasks to determine the number of affected cardiac vessels, the Gensini group, and the severity of CAD with 82.58%, 86.26%, and 90.91% accuracy, respectively. Eleven approaches were used in regression tasks to calculate stenosis percentage and Gensini score, with R-squared values of 0.58 and 0.56, respectively. Following a thorough evaluative search in the biomarkers feature space, the optimum feature and classifier or regressor set were selected using K-fold cross-validation. The biomarkers and classifier or regressor combinations serve as the foundation for the proposed risk stratification framework, incorporating clinical protocol. Finally, our proposed framework is compared to state-of-the-art studies, offering a robust, well-rounded, early detection capable, and novel 'biomarkers-ML combination' approach to risk stratification.

Machine learning and explainable artificial intelligence for the prevention of waterborne cryptosporidiosis and giardiosis

Cryptosporidium and Giardia are important parasitic protozoa due to their zoonotic potential and impact on human health, and have often caused waterborne outbreaks of disease. Detection of (oo)cysts in water matrices is challenging and extremely costly, thus only few countries have legislated for regular monitoring of drinking water for their presence. Several attempts have been made trying to investigate the association between the presence of such (oo)cysts in waters with other biotic or abiotic factors, with inconclusive findings. In this regard, the aim of this study was the development of an holistic approach leveraging Machine Learning (ML) and eXplainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) techniques, in order to provide empirical evidence related to the presence and prediction of Cryptosporidium oocysts and Giardia cysts in water samples. To meet this objective, we initially modelled the complex relationship between Cryptosporidium and Giardia (oo)cysts and a set of parasitological, microbiological, physicochemical and meteorological parameters via a model-agnostic meta-learner algorithm that provides flexibility regarding the selection of the ML model executing the fitting task. Based on this generic approach, a set of four well-known ML candidates were, empirically, evaluated in terms of their predictive capabilities. Then, the best-performed algorithms, were further examined through XAI techniques for gaining meaningful insights related to the explainability and interpretability of the derived solutions. The findings reveal that the Random Forest achieves the highest prediction performance when the objective is the prediction of both contamination and contamination intensity with Cryptosporidium oocysts in a given water sample, with meteorological/physicochemical and microbiological markers being informative, respectively. For the prediction of contamination with Giardia, the eXtreme Gradient Boosting with physicochemical parameters was the most efficient algorithm, while, the Support Vector Regression that takes into consideration both microbiological and meteorological markers was more efficient for evaluating the contamination intensity with cysts. The results of the study designate that the adoption of ML and XAI approaches can be considered as a valuable tool for unveiling the complicated correlation of the presence and contamination intensity with these zoonotic parasites that could constitute, in turn, a basis for the development of monitoring platforms and early warning systems for the prevention of waterborne disease outbreaks.

O2 supplementation disambiguation in clinical narratives to support retrospective COVID-19 studies

BACKGROUND

Oxygen saturation, a key indicator of COVID-19 severity, poses challenges, especially in cases of silent hypoxemia. Electronic health records (EHRs) often contain supplemental oxygen information within clinical narratives. Streamlining patient identification based on oxygen levels is crucial for COVID-19 research, underscoring the need for automated classifiers in discharge summaries to ease the manual review burden on physicians.

METHOD

We analysed text lines extracted from anonymised COVID-19 patient discharge summaries in German to perform a binary classification task, differentiating patients who received oxygen supplementation and those who did not. Various machine learning (ML) algorithms, including classical ML to deep learning (DL) models, were compared. Classifier decisions were explained using Local Interpretable Model-agnostic Explanations (LIME), which visualize the model decisions.

RESULT

Classical ML to DL models achieved comparable performance in classification, with an F-measure varying between 0.942 and 0.955, whereas the classical ML approaches were faster. Visualisation of embedding representation of input data reveals notable variations in the encoding patterns between classic and DL encoders. Furthermore, LIME explanations provide insights into the most relevant features at token level that contribute to these observed differences.

CONCLUSION

Despite a general tendency towards deep learning, these use cases show that classical approaches yield comparable results at lower computational cost. Model prediction explanations using LIME in textual and visual layouts provided a qualitative explanation for the model performance.

Prognostic Implications of Clinical, Laboratory and Echocardiographic Biomarkers in Patients with Acute Myocardial Infarction-Rationale and Design of the ''CLEAR-AMI Study''

BACKGROUND

Acute myocardial infarction (AMI) remains a major cause of death worldwide. Survivors of AMI are particularly at high risk for additional cardiovascular events. Consequently, a comprehensive approach to secondary prevention is necessary to mitigate the occurrence of downstream complications. This may be achieved through a multiparametric tailored risk stratification by incorporating clinical, laboratory and echocardiographic parameters.

METHODS

The ''CLEAR-AMI Study'' (ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT05791916) is a non-interventional, prospective study including consecutive patients with AMI without a known history of coronary artery disease. All patients satisfying these inclusion criteria are enrolled in the present study. The rationale of this study is to refine risk stratification by using clinical, laboratory and novel echocardiographic biomarkers. All the patients undergo a comprehensive transthoracic echocardiographic assessment, including strain and myocardial work analysis of the left and right heart chambers, within 48 h of admission after coronary angiography. Their laboratory profile focusing on systemic inflammation is captured during the first 24 h upon admission, and their demographic characteristics, past medical history, and therapeutic management are recorded. The angioplasty details are documented, the non-culprit coronary lesions are archived, and the SYNTAX score is employed to evaluate the complexity of coronary artery disease. A 24-month follow-up period will be recorded for all patients recruited.

CONCLUSION

The ''CLEAR-AMI" study is an ongoing prospective registry endeavoring to refine risk assessment in patients with AMI without a known history of coronary artery disease, by incorporating echocardiographic parameters, biochemical indices, and clinical and coronary characteristics in the acute phase of AMI.

Machine learning approaches that use clinical, laboratory, and electrocardiogram data enhance the prediction of obstructive coronary artery disease

Pretest probability (PTP) for assessing obstructive coronary artery disease (ObCAD) was updated to reduce overestimation. However, standard laboratory findings and electrocardiogram (ECG) raw data as first-line tests have not been evaluated for integration into the PTP estimation. Therefore, this study developed an ensemble model by adopting machine learning (ML) and deep learning (DL) algorithms with clinical, laboratory, and ECG data for the assessment of ObCAD. Data were extracted from the electronic medical records of patients with suspected ObCAD who underwent coronary angiography. With the ML algorithm, 27 clinical and laboratory data were included to identify ObCAD, whereas ECG waveform data were utilized with the DL algorithm. The ensemble method combined the clinical-laboratory and ECG models. We included 7907 patients between 2008 and 2020. The clinical and laboratory model showed an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.747; the ECG model had an AUC of 0.685. The ensemble model demonstrated the highest AUC of 0.767. The sensitivity, specificity, and F1 score of the ensemble model ObCAD were 0.761, 0.625, and 0.696, respectively. It demonstrated good performance and superior prediction over traditional PTP models. This may facilitate personalized decisions for ObCAD assessment and reduce PTP overestimation.

A Systematic Review: Do the Use of Machine Learning, Deep Learning, and Artificial Intelligence Improve Patient Outcomes in Acute Myocardial Ischemia Compared to Clinician-Only Approaches?

Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) present a significant global health challenge and remain a primary cause of death. Early detection and intervention are crucial for improved outcomes in acute coronary syndrome (ACS), particularly acute myocardial infarction (AMI) cases. Artificial intelligence (AI) can detect heart disease early by analyzing patient information and electrocardiogram (ECG) data, providing invaluable insights into this critical health issue. However, the imbalanced nature of ECG and patient data presents challenges for traditional machine learning (ML) algorithms in performing unbiasedly. Investigators have proposed various data-level and algorithm-level solutions to overcome these challenges. In this study, we used a systematic literature review (SLR) approach to give an overview of the current literature and to highlight the difficulties of utilizing ML, deep learning (DL), and AI algorithms in predicting, diagnosing, and prognosis of heart diseases. We reviewed 181 articles from reputable journals published between 2013 and June 15, 2023, focusing on eight selected papers for in-depth analysis. The analysis considered factors such as heart disease type, algorithms used, applications, and proposed solutions and compared the benefits of algorithms combined with clinicians versus clinicians alone. This systematic review revealed that the current ML-based diagnostic approaches face several open problems and issues when implementing ML, DL, and AI in real-life settings. Although these algorithms show higher sensitivities, specificities, and accuracies in detecting heart disease, we must address the ethical concerns while implementing these models into clinical practice. The transparency of how these algorithms operate remains a challenge. Nevertheless, further exploration and research in ML, DL, and AI are necessary to overcome these challenges and fully harness their potential to improve health outcomes for patients with AMI.

A Machine Learning Framework for Diagnosing and Predicting the Severity of Coronary Artery Disease

BACKGROUND

Although machine learning (ML)-based prediction of coronary artery disease (CAD) has gained increasing attention, assessment of the severity of suspected CAD in symptomatic patients remains challenging.

METHODS

The training set for this study consisted of 284 retrospective participants, while the test set included 116 prospectively enrolled participants from whom we collected 53 baseline variables and coronary angiography results. The data was pre-processed with outlier processing and One-Hot coding. In the first stage, we constructed a ML model that used baseline information to predict the presence of CAD with a dichotomous model. In the second stage, baseline information was used to construct ML regression models for predicting the severity of CAD. The non-CAD population was included, and two different scores were used as output variables. Finally, statistical analysis and SHAP plot visualization methods were employed to explore the relationship between baseline information and CAD.

RESULTS

The study included 269 CAD patients and 131 healthy controls. The eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) model exhibited the best performance amongst the different models for predicting CAD, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.728 (95% CI 0.623-0.824). The main correlates were left ventricular ejection fraction, homocysteine, and hemoglobin (p < 0.001). The XGBoost model performed best for predicting the SYNTAX score, with the main correlates being brain natriuretic peptide (BNP), left ventricular ejection fraction, and glycated hemoglobin (p < 0.001). The main relevant features in the model predictive for the GENSINI score were BNP, high density lipoprotein, and homocysteine (p < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

This data-driven approach provides a foundation for the risk stratification and severity assessment of CAD.

CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION

The study was registered in www.clinicaltrials.gov protocol registration system (number NCT05018715).

Single Nucleotide Polymorphisms' Causal Structure Robustness within Coronary Artery Disease Patients

An ever-growing amount of accumulated data has materialized in several scientific fields, due to recent technological progress. New challenges emerge in exploiting these data and utilizing the valuable available information. Causal models are a powerful tool that can be employed towards this aim, by unveiling the structure of causal relationships between different variables. The causal structure may avail experts to better understand relationships, or even uncover new knowledge. Based on 963 patients with coronary artery disease, the robustness of the causal structure of single nucleotide polymorphisms was assessed, taking into account the value of the Syntax Score, an index that evaluates the complexity of the disease. The causal structure was investigated, both locally and globally, under different levels of intervention, reflected in the number of patients that were randomly excluded from the original datasets corresponding to two categories of the Syntax Score, zero and positive. It is shown that the causal structure of single nucleotide polymorphisms was more robust under milder interventions, whereas in the case of stronger interventions, the impact increased. The local causal structure around the Syntax Score was studied in the case of a positive Syntax Score, and it was found to be resilient, even when the intervention was strong. Consequently, employing causal models in this context may increase the understanding of the biological aspects of coronary artery disease.

Association of clinical, laboratory and imaging biomarkers with the occurrence of acute myocardial infarction in patients without standard modifiable risk factors - rationale and design of the "Beyond-SMuRFs Study"

BACKGROUND

Acute myocardial infarction (AMI) remains the leading cause of mortality worldwide. The majority of patients who suffer an AMI have a history of at least one of the standard modifiable risk factors (SMuRFs): smoking, hypertension, dyslipidemia, and diabetes mellitus. However, emerging scientific evidence recognizes a clinically significant and increasing proportion of patients presenting with AMI without any SMuRF (SMuRF-less patients). To date, there are no adequate data to define specific risk factors or biomarkers associated with the development of AMIs in these patients.

METHODS

The ''Beyond-SMuRFs Study'' is a prospective, non-interventional cohort trial designed to enroll patients with AMI and no previous coronary intervention history, who undergo coronary angiography in two academic hospitals in Thessaloniki, Greece. The rationale of the study is to investigate potential relations between SMuRF-less AMIs and the clinical, laboratory and imaging profile of patients, by comparing parameters between patients with and without SMuRFs. Complete demographic and comprehensive clinical data will be recorded, Venous blood samples will be collected before coronary angiography and the following parameters will be measured: total blood count, standard biochemistry parameters, coagulation tests, hormone levels, glycosylated hemoglobin, N- terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide and high-sensitivity troponin T levels- as well as serum levels of novel atherosclerosis indicators and pro-inflammatory biomarkers. Furthermore, all participants will undergo a complete and comprehensive transthoracic echocardiographic assessment according to a pre-specified protocol within 24 h from admission. Among others, 2D-speckle-tracking echocardiographic analysis of cardiac chambers and non-invasive calculation of myocardial work indices for the left ventricle will be performed. Moreover, all patients will be assessed for angiographic parameters and the complexity of coronary artery disease using the SYNTAX score. Multivariable linear and logistic regression models will be used to phenotypically characterize SMuRF-less patients and investigate independent clinical, laboratory, echocardiographic and angiographic biomarkers-predictors of SMuRF-less status in AMI.The first patient was enrolled in March 2022 and completion of enrollment is expected until December 2023.

DISCUSSION

The ''Beyond-SmuRFs'' study is an ongoing prospective trial aiming to investigate potential clinical, laboratory and imaging biomarkers associated with the occurrence of AMIs in SMuRF-less patients. The configuration of these patients' profiles could lead to the development of personalized risk-stratification models predicting the occurrence of cardiovascular events in SΜuRF-less individuals.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT05535582 / September 10, 2022.

Machine Learning Algorithm to Predict Obstructive Coronary Artery Disease: Insights from the CorLipid Trial

Developing risk assessment tools for CAD prediction remains challenging nowadays. We developed an ML predictive algorithm based on metabolic and clinical data for determining the severity of CAD, as assessed via the SYNTAX score. Analytical methods were developed to determine serum blood levels of specific ceramides, acyl-carnitines, fatty acids, and proteins such as galectin-3, adiponectin, and APOB/APOA1 ratio. Patients were grouped into: obstructive CAD (SS > 0) and non-obstructive CAD (SS = 0). A risk prediction algorithm (boosted ensemble algorithm XGBoost) was developed by combining clinical characteristics with established and novel biomarkers to identify patients at high risk for complex CAD. The study population comprised 958 patients (CorLipid trial (NCT04580173)), with no prior CAD, who underwent coronary angiography. Of them, 533 (55.6%) suffered ACS, 170 (17.7%) presented with NSTEMI, 222 (23.2%) with STEMI, and 141 (14.7%) with unstable angina. Of the total sample, 681 (71%) had obstructive CAD. The algorithm dataset was 73 biochemical parameters and metabolic biomarkers as well as anthropometric and medical history variables. The performance of the XGBoost algorithm had an AUC value of 0.725 (95% CI: 0.691−0.759). Thus, a ML model incorporating clinical features in addition to certain metabolic features can estimate the pre-test likelihood of obstructive CAD.

Cardiac Complications: The Understudied Aspect of Cancer Cachexia

The global burden of cancer cachexia is increasing along with drastic increase in cancer patients. Cancer itself leads to cachexia, and cachexia development is associated with events like altered hemodynamics, and reduced functional capacity of the heart among others which lead to failure of the heart and are called cardiovascular complications associated with cancer cachexia. In some patients, the anti-cancer therapy also leads to this cardiovascular complications. So, in this review, an attempt is made to understand the mechanisms, pathophysiology of cardiovascular events in cachectic patients. Important processes which cause cardiovascular complications include alterations in the structure of the heart, loss of cardiac mass and functioning, cardiac fibrosis and cardiac remodeling, apoptosis, cardiac muscle atrophy, and mitochondrial alterations. Previously, the available treatment options were limited to nutraceuticals and physical exercise. Recently, studies with some prospective agents that can improve cardiac health have been reported, but whether their action is effective in cardiovascular complications associated with cancer cachexia is not known or are under trial.

Dissecting miRNA–Gene Networks to Map Clinical Utility Roads of Pharmacogenomics-Guided Therapeutic Decisions in Cardiovascular Precision Medicine

MicroRNAs (miRNAs) create systems networks and gene-expression circuits through molecular signaling and cell interactions that contribute to health imbalance and the emergence of cardiovascular disorders (CVDs). Because the clinical phenotypes of CVD patients present a diversity in their pathophysiology and heterogeneity at the molecular level, it is essential to establish genomic signatures to delineate multifactorial correlations, and to unveil the variability seen in therapeutic intervention outcomes. The clinically validated miRNA biomarkers, along with the relevant SNPs identified, have to be suitably implemented in the clinical setting in order to enhance patient stratification capacity, to contribute to a better understanding of the underlying pathophysiological mechanisms, to guide the selection of innovative therapeutic schemes, and to identify innovative drugs and delivery systems. In this article, the miRNA–gene networks and the genomic signatures resulting from the SNPs will be analyzed as a method of highlighting specific gene-signaling circuits as sources of molecular knowledge which is relevant to CVDs. In concordance with this concept, and as a case study, the design of the clinical trial GESS (NCT03150680) is referenced. The latter is presented in a manner to provide a direction for the improvement of the implementation of pharmacogenomics and precision cardiovascular medicine trials.