Data processing pipeline for cardiogenic shock prediction using machine learning

Application of an interpretable machine learning method to predict the risk of death during hospitalization in patients with acute myocardial infarction combined with diabetes mellitus

BACKGROUND

Predicting the prognosis of patients with acute myocardial infarction (AMI) combined with diabetes mellitus (DM) is crucial due to high in-hospital mortality rates. This study aims to develop and validate a mortality risk prediction model for these patients by interpretable machine learning (ML) methods.

METHODS

Data were sourced from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care IV (MIMIC-IV, version 2.2). Predictors were selected by Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression and checked for multicollinearity with Spearman's correlation. Patients were randomly assigned to training and validation sets in an 8:2 ratio. Seven ML algorithms were used to construct models in the training set. Model performance was evaluated in the validation set using metrics such as area under the curve (AUC) with 95% confidence interval (CI), calibration curves, precision, recall, F1 score, accuracy, negative predictive value (NPV), and positive predictive value (PPV). The significance of differences in predictive performance among models was assessed utilising the permutation test, and 10-fold cross-validation further validated the model's performance. SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) and Local Interpretable Model-agnostic Explanations (LIME) were applied to interpret the models.

RESULTS

The study included 2,828 patients with AMI combined with DM. Nineteen predictors were identified through LASSO regression and Spearman's correlation. The Random Forest (RF) model was demonstrated the best performance, with an AUC of 0.823 (95% CI: 0.774-0.872), high precision (0.867), accuracy (0.873), and PPV (0.867). The RF model showed significant differences (p < 0.05) compared to the K-Nearest Neighbours and Decision Tree models. Calibration curves indicated that the RF model's predicted risk aligned well with actual outcomes. 10-fold cross-validation confirmed the superior performance of RF model, with an average AUC of 0.828 (95% CI: 0.800-0.842). Significant Variables in RF model indicated that the top eight significant predictors were urine output, maximum anion gap, maximum urea nitrogen, age, minimum pH, maximum international normalised ratio (INR), mean respiratory rate, and mean systolic blood pressure.

CONCLUSION

This study demonstrates the potential of ML methods, particularly the RF model, in predicting in-hospital mortality risk for AMI patients with DM. The SHAP and LIME methods enhance the interpretability of ML models.

Profiling of Cardiogenic Shock: Incorporating Machine Learning Into Bedside Management

Cardiogenic shock (CS) is a complex clinical syndrome with various etiologies and clinical presentations. Despite advances in therapeutic options, mortality remains high, and clinical trials in the field are complicated in part by the heterogeneity of CS patients. More individualized targeted therapeutic approaches might improve outcomes in CS, but their implementation remains challenging. The present review discusses current and emerging machine learning-based approaches, including unsupervised and supervised learning methods that use real-world clinical data to individualize therapeutic strategies for CS patients. We will discuss the rationale for each approach, potential advantages and disadvantages, and how these strategies can inform clinical trial design and management decisions.

Machine learning-based scoring system to predict cardiogenic shock in acute coronary syndrome

Aims

Cardiogenic shock (CS) is a severe complication of acute coronary syndrome (ACS) with mortality rates approaching 50%. The ability to identify high-risk patients prior to the development of CS may allow for pre-emptive measures to prevent the development of CS. The objective was to derive and externally validate a simple, machine learning (ML)-based scoring system using variables readily available at first medical contact to predict the risk of developing CS during hospitalization in patients with ACS.

Methods and results

Observational multicentre study on ACS patients hospitalized at intensive care units. Derivation cohort included over 40 000 patients from Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center, Boston, USA. Validation cohort included 5123 patients from the Sheba Medical Center, Ramat Gan, Israel. The final derivation cohort consisted of 3228 and the final validation cohort of 4904 ACS patients without CS at hospital admission. Development of CS was adjudicated manually based on the patients' reports. From nine ML models based on 13 variables (heart rate, respiratory rate, oxygen saturation, blood glucose level, systolic blood pressure, age, sex, shock index, heart rhythm, type of ACS, history of hypertension, congestive heart failure, and hypercholesterolaemia), logistic regression with elastic net regularization had the highest externally validated predictive performance (c-statistics: 0.844, 95% CI, 0.841-0.847).

Conclusion

STOP SHOCK score is a simple ML-based tool available at first medical contact showing high performance for prediction of developing CS during hospitalization in ACS patients. The web application is available at https://stopshock.org/#calculator.

The Heart of Transformation: Exploring Artificial Intelligence in Cardiovascular Disease

The application of artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) in medicine and healthcare has been extensively explored across various areas. AI and ML can revolutionize cardiovascular disease management by significantly enhancing diagnostic accuracy, disease prediction, workflow optimization, and resource utilization. This review summarizes current advancements in AI and ML concerning cardiovascular disease, including their clinical investigation and use in primary cardiac imaging techniques, common cardiovascular disease categories, clinical research, patient care, and outcome prediction. We analyze and discuss commonly used AI and ML models, algorithms, and methodologies, highlighting their roles in improving clinical outcomes while addressing current limitations and future clinical applications. Furthermore, this review emphasizes the transformative potential of AI and ML in cardiovascular practice by improving clinical decision making, reducing human error, enhancing patient monitoring and support, and creating more efficient healthcare workflows for complex cardiovascular conditions.

Development and external validation of a dynamic risk score for early prediction of cardiogenic shock in cardiac intensive care units using machine learning

AIMS

Myocardial infarction and heart failure are major cardiovascular diseases that affect millions of people in the USA with morbidity and mortality being highest among patients who develop cardiogenic shock. Early recognition of cardiogenic shock allows prompt implementation of treatment measures. Our objective is to develop a new dynamic risk score, called CShock, to improve early detection of cardiogenic shock in the cardiac intensive care unit (ICU).

METHODS AND RESULTS

We developed and externally validated a deep learning-based risk stratification tool, called CShock, for patients admitted into the cardiac ICU with acute decompensated heart failure and/or myocardial infarction to predict the onset of cardiogenic shock. We prepared a cardiac ICU dataset using the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care-III database by annotating with physician-adjudicated outcomes. This dataset which consisted of 1500 patients with 204 having cardiogenic/mixed shock was then used to train CShock. The features used to train the model for CShock included patient demographics, cardiac ICU admission diagnoses, routinely measured laboratory values and vital signs, and relevant features manually extracted from echocardiogram and left heart catheterization reports. We externally validated the risk model on the New York University (NYU) Langone Health cardiac ICU database which was also annotated with physician-adjudicated outcomes. The external validation cohort consisted of 131 patients with 25 patients experiencing cardiogenic/mixed shock. CShock achieved an area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (AUROC) of 0.821 (95% CI 0.792-0.850). CShock was externally validated in the more contemporary NYU cohort and achieved an AUROC of 0.800 (95% CI 0.717-0.884), demonstrating its generalizability in other cardiac ICUs. Having an elevated heart rate is most predictive of cardiogenic shock development based on Shapley values. The other top 10 predictors are having an admission diagnosis of myocardial infarction with ST-segment elevation, having an admission diagnosis of acute decompensated heart failure, Braden Scale, Glasgow Coma Scale, blood urea nitrogen, systolic blood pressure, serum chloride, serum sodium, and arterial blood pH.

CONCLUSION

The novel CShock score has the potential to provide automated detection and early warning for cardiogenic shock and improve the outcomes for millions of patients who suffer from myocardial infarction and heart failure.

Revolutionizing Cardiology through Artificial Intelligence-Big Data from Proactive Prevention to Precise Diagnostics and Cutting-Edge Treatment-A Comprehensive Review of the Past 5 Years

BACKGROUND

Artificial intelligence (AI) can radically change almost every aspect of the human experience. In the medical field, there are numerous applications of AI and subsequently, in a relatively short time, significant progress has been made. Cardiology is not immune to this trend, this fact being supported by the exponential increase in the number of publications in which the algorithms play an important role in data analysis, pattern discovery, identification of anomalies, and therapeutic decision making. Furthermore, with technological development, there have appeared new models of machine learning (ML) and deep learning (DP) that are capable of exploring various applications of AI in cardiology, including areas such as prevention, cardiovascular imaging, electrophysiology, interventional cardiology, and many others. In this sense, the present article aims to provide a general vision of the current state of AI use in cardiology.

RESULTS

We identified and included a subset of 200 papers directly relevant to the current research covering a wide range of applications. Thus, this paper presents AI applications in cardiovascular imaging, arithmology, clinical or emergency cardiology, cardiovascular prevention, and interventional procedures in a summarized manner. Recent studies from the highly scientific literature demonstrate the feasibility and advantages of using AI in different branches of cardiology.

CONCLUSIONS

The integration of AI in cardiology offers promising perspectives for increasing accuracy by decreasing the error rate and increasing efficiency in cardiovascular practice. From predicting the risk of sudden death or the ability to respond to cardiac resynchronization therapy to the diagnosis of pulmonary embolism or the early detection of valvular diseases, AI algorithms have shown their potential to mitigate human error and provide feasible solutions. At the same time, limits imposed by the small samples studied are highlighted alongside the challenges presented by ethical implementation; these relate to legal implications regarding responsibility and decision making processes, ensuring patient confidentiality and data security. All these constitute future research directions that will allow the integration of AI in the progress of cardiology.

Novel Medical Treatments and Devices for the Management of Heart Failure with Reduced Ejection Fraction

Heart failure (HF) is a growing issue in developed countries; it is often the result of underlying processes such as ischemia, hypertension, infiltrative diseases or even genetic abnormalities. The great majority of the affected patients present a reduced ejection fraction (≤40%), thereby falling under the name of "heart failure with reduced ejection fraction" (HFrEF). This condition represents a major threat for patients: it significantly affects life quality and carries an enormous burden on the whole healthcare system due to its high management costs. In the last decade, new medical treatments and devices have been developed in order to reduce HF hospitalizations and improve prognosis while reducing the overall mortality rate. Pharmacological therapy has significantly changed our perspective of this disease thanks to its ability of restoring ventricular function and reducing symptom severity, even in some dramatic contexts with an extensively diseased myocardium. Notably, medical therapy can sometimes be ineffective, and a tailored integration with device technologies is of pivotal importance. Not by chance, in recent years, cardiac implantable devices witnessed a significant improvement, thereby providing an irreplaceable resource for the management of HF. Some devices have the ability of assessing (CardioMEMS) or treating (ultrafiltration) fluid retention, while others recognize and treat life-threatening arrhythmias, even for a limited time frame (wearable cardioverter defibrillator). The present review article gives a comprehensive overview of the most recent and important findings that need to be considered in patients affected by HFrEF. Both novel medical treatments and devices are presented and discussed.

Artificial Intelligence in the Early Prediction of Cardiogenic Shock in Acute Heart Failure or Myocardial Infarction Patients: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Cardiogenic shock (CS) may have a negative impact on mortality in patients with heart failure (HF) or acute myocardial infarction (AMI). Early prediction of CS can result in improved survival. Artificial intelligence (AI) through machine learning (ML) models have shown promise in predictive medicine. Here, we conduct a systematic review and meta-analysis to assess the effectiveness of these models in the early prediction of CS. A thorough search of the PubMed, Web of Science, Cochrane, and Scopus databases was conducted from the time of inception until November 2, 2023, to find relevant studies. Our outcomes were area under the curve (AUC), the sensitivity and specificity of the ML model, the accuracy of the ML model, and the predictor variables that had the most impact in predicting CS. Comprehensive Meta-Analysis (CMA) Version 3.0 was used to conduct the meta-analysis. Six studies were considered in our study. The pooled mean AUC was 0.808 (95% confidence interval: 0.727, 0.890). The AUC in the included studies ranged from 0.77 to 0.91. ML models performed well, with accuracy ranging from 0.88 to 0.93 and sensitivity and specificity of 58%-78% and 88%-93%, respectively. Age, blood pressure, heart rate, oxygen saturation, and blood glucose were the most significant variables required by ML models to acquire their outputs. In conclusion, AI has the potential for early prediction of CS, which may lead to a decrease in the high mortality rate associated with it. Future studies are needed to confirm the results.