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Roux J, Massonnaud CR, Colizza V, Cauchemez S, Crépey P. Modeling the impact of national and regional lockdowns on the 2020 spring wave of COVID-19 in France. Sci Rep 2023. [PMID: 36725962 DOI: 10.1101/2021.04.21.21255876] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/16/2023] Open
Abstract
Several countries have implemented lockdowns to control their COVID-19 epidemic. However, questions like "where" and "when" still require answers. We assessed the impact of national and regional lockdowns considering the French first epidemic wave of COVID-19 as a case study. In a regional lockdown scenario aimed at preventing intensive care units (ICU) saturation, almost all French regions would have had to implement a lockdown within 10 days and 96% of ICU capacities would have been used. For slowly growing epidemics, with a lower reproduction number, the expected delays between regional lockdowns increase. However, the public health costs associated with these delays tend to grow with time. In a quickly growing pandemic wave, defining the timing of lockdowns at a regional rather than national level delays by a few days the implementation of a nationwide lockdown but leads to substantially higher morbidity, mortality, and stress on the healthcare system.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jonathan Roux
- RSMS-U 1309, ARENES-UMR 6051, EHESP, CNRS, Inserm, Université de Rennes, 15, Avenue du Professeur Léon-Bernard, CS 74312, 35043, Rennes Cedex, France
| | - Clément R Massonnaud
- RSMS-U 1309, ARENES-UMR 6051, EHESP, CNRS, Inserm, Université de Rennes, 15, Avenue du Professeur Léon-Bernard, CS 74312, 35043, Rennes Cedex, France
- Department of Biomedical Informatics, Rouen University Hospital, 76000, Rouen, France
| | - Vittoria Colizza
- Institut Pierre Louis d'Epidémiologie et de Santé Publique IPLESP, Sorbonne Université, Inserm, 75012, Paris, France
| | - Simon Cauchemez
- Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases Unit, Institut Pasteur, Université Paris Cité, CNRS UMR2000, Paris, France
| | - Pascal Crépey
- RSMS-U 1309, ARENES-UMR 6051, EHESP, CNRS, Inserm, Université de Rennes, 15, Avenue du Professeur Léon-Bernard, CS 74312, 35043, Rennes Cedex, France.
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Roux J, Massonnaud CR, Colizza V, Cauchemez S, Crépey P. Modeling the impact of national and regional lockdowns on the 2020 spring wave of COVID-19 in France. Sci Rep 2023; 13:1834. [PMID: 36725962 PMCID: PMC9890427 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-023-28687-w] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/15/2021] [Accepted: 01/23/2023] [Indexed: 02/03/2023] Open
Abstract
Several countries have implemented lockdowns to control their COVID-19 epidemic. However, questions like "where" and "when" still require answers. We assessed the impact of national and regional lockdowns considering the French first epidemic wave of COVID-19 as a case study. In a regional lockdown scenario aimed at preventing intensive care units (ICU) saturation, almost all French regions would have had to implement a lockdown within 10 days and 96% of ICU capacities would have been used. For slowly growing epidemics, with a lower reproduction number, the expected delays between regional lockdowns increase. However, the public health costs associated with these delays tend to grow with time. In a quickly growing pandemic wave, defining the timing of lockdowns at a regional rather than national level delays by a few days the implementation of a nationwide lockdown but leads to substantially higher morbidity, mortality, and stress on the healthcare system.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jonathan Roux
- RSMS-U 1309, ARENES-UMR 6051, EHESP, CNRS, Inserm, Université de Rennes, 15, Avenue du Professeur Léon-Bernard, CS 74312, 35043, Rennes Cedex, France
| | - Clément R Massonnaud
- RSMS-U 1309, ARENES-UMR 6051, EHESP, CNRS, Inserm, Université de Rennes, 15, Avenue du Professeur Léon-Bernard, CS 74312, 35043, Rennes Cedex, France.,Department of Biomedical Informatics, Rouen University Hospital, 76000, Rouen, France
| | - Vittoria Colizza
- Institut Pierre Louis d'Epidémiologie et de Santé Publique IPLESP, Sorbonne Université, Inserm, 75012, Paris, France
| | - Simon Cauchemez
- Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases Unit, Institut Pasteur, Université Paris Cité, CNRS UMR2000, Paris, France
| | - Pascal Crépey
- RSMS-U 1309, ARENES-UMR 6051, EHESP, CNRS, Inserm, Université de Rennes, 15, Avenue du Professeur Léon-Bernard, CS 74312, 35043, Rennes Cedex, France.
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