A Novel Nomogram for Predicting the Risk of Premature Delivery Based on the Thyroid Function in Pregnant Women

Estimating the individual singleton preterm birth risk: nomogram establishment and independent validation

Background

To establish and independently validate nomograms for predicting singleton preterm birth (PTB) risk based on a large sample size comprising data from two independent datasets.

Methods

This cohort study used data from 50 states and the District of Columbia in the National Vital Statistics System (NVSS) database between January 2016 and December 2020. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to confirm the independent risk factors for PTB. Statistically significant variables were incorporated into the logistic regression models to establish PTB prediction nomograms. The models were developed using the United States (US)-derived data and were independently validated using data from US Territories.

Results

A total of 16,294,529 mother-newborn pairs from the US were included in the training set, and 54,708 mother-newborn pairs from the US Territories were included in the validation set. In all, 4 nomograms were built: 1 to predict PTB probability, and another 3 to predict moderately and late PTB probability, very PTB probability, and extremely PTB probability, respectively. Hypertensive eclampsia and infertility treatment were found to be the top 2 contributors to PTB.

Conclusions

We developed and validated nomograms to predict the individualized probability of PTB, which could be useful to physicians for improved early identification of PTB and in making individualized clinical decisions.

Prediction of preterm delivery based on thyroid peroxidase antibody levels and other identified risk factors

OBJECTIVE

Thyroid dysfunction and TPOAb positivity during pregnancy are associated with adverse pregnancy outcomes such as preterm delivery. The aim of this study was to predict preterm delivery based on identified risk factors, especially TPOAb levels.

STUDY DESIGN

A secondary analysis was run on data collected in the Tehran Thyroid and Pregnancy study (TTPs). We used the data of 1515 pregnant women with singletons. The association between risk factors and preterm birth (delivery before 37 completed weeks of gestation) was investigated in univariate analysis. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed to identify independent risk factors, and a stepwise backward elimination method was used to determine the helpful combination of risk factors. The nomogram was developed based on a multivariate logistic regression model. The performance of the nomogram was evaluated using a concordance index and calibration plots with bootstrap samples. Statistical analysis was performed using STATA software package; the significance level was set at P < 0.05.

RESULTS

Based on multivariate logistic regression analysis, a combination of previous preterm delivery [OR: 5.25; 95 %CI: (2.13-12.90), p < 0.01], TPOAb [OR: 1.01; 95 %CI: (1.01-1.02), and T4 [OR: 0.90; 95 %CI: (0.83-0.97); p = 0.04] as independent risk factors that most precisely predicted preterm birth. The area under the curve (AUC) was 0.66 (95% CI: 0.61-0.72). The calibration plot suggests that the fit of the nomogram is reasonable.

CONCLUSION

A combination of T4, TPOAb, and previous preterm delivery was identified as independent risk factors that accurately predicted preterm delivery. The total score obtained based on the nomogram designed based on risk factors can predict the risk of preterm delivery.

Preconception Counseling in Patients with Hypothyroidism and/or Thyroid Autoimmunity

Preconception counseling is an essential tool for preventing adverse pregnancy outcomes associated with thyroid dysfunction. The high prevalence of thyroid disease among women of reproductive age, and the increased risk of adverse pregnancy outcomes associated with thyroid dysfunction, emphasize the necessity for well-established screening and treatment criteria in the preconception period. We therefore conducted a literature review for relevant information on the screening, diagnosis and treatment of subclinical and overt hypothyroidism in women seeking pregnancy. While screening for thyroid disease is recommended only in the presence of risk factors, iodine supplementation should be recommended in most regions, with higher doses in areas with severe deficiency. Known hypothyroid women should be counseled about increasing their levothyroxine dose by 20–30% in the case of suspected or confirmed pregnancy (missed menstrual cycle or positive pregnancy test). Treating subclinical hypothyroidism appears to be beneficial, especially in the presence of autoimmunity or in patients undergoing artificial reproductive techniques. Regarding the management of TPOAb negative SCH women or euthyroid women with positive TPOAb, further research is necessary in order to make evidence-based recommendations.