What Does the Future Hold for Páramo Plants? A Modelling Approach

Understanding the effects of climate change on tropicalpine biota remains a scientific challenge today. The Andean páramo is the largest and most diverse tropicalpine biogeographical region in the world, and also one of the most threatened as it is prone to accelerated environmental changes. My goal was to predict changes in the distribution ranges of the diverse and highly endemic páramo flora on the mid-term (50 years). First, I predicted distribution changes in páramo plant species under novel climates and considering dispersal constraints. Second, I looked for consensus areas of species losses vs. gains in the páramo, expecting to identify a gradient of increasing relative richness with elevation over time. Last, I evaluated the behavior of plant species regarding their climatic refugia since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) to establish if they likely remain or transcend them. Based on VegParamo vegetation data and CHELSA bioclimatic information, I performed species distribution models for a 664 species pool, that were then contrasted between the present, future (2070) and past (LGM). About 8.3% of the entire species pool (55 species) were predicted to be extirpated from the páramo by 2070, including 22 species endemics. On average, páramo plants gained 15.52% of additional distribution by 2070 (18.81% for endemics). Models predicted the most area gains for the northern páramos of Colombia and Venezuela, and the highest losses for the eastern Ecuadorian and Peruvian mountains. Moreover, area gains were more pronounced at high elevations, suggesting a future accelerated colonization process toward the northern Andean summits. Finally, only 21.41% of the species’ 2070 distribution coincided with their LGM (19.75% for endemics), and the largest climatic refugia since the LGM were found in southern Ecuador and Peru. This study is pioneer in predicting future distribution shifts for páramo plant species overall and provides solid bases to support climate change research and adaptation strategies in the tropical Andes.

Evaluation of Protected Areas in Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana, West Africa, Using a Remote Sensing-Based Approach

This study assesses the representation of defined ecoregions, slope profiles, and species richness of threatened mammals in the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN)-listed protected areas in Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire. It also evaluates the exposure of protected area categories to the cumulative degree of human modification and their vulnerability to future agricultural expansion. Spatial gap and statistical analyses were performed using quantitative data from publicly available online global databases. Analyses indicated key conservation priorities for both countries: (1) to increase the protection of the Guinean forest–savanna mosaic, West Sudanian savanna, and Eastern Guinean forests, especially of the Eastern Guinean forests’ ecoregion associated with the Guinean forests of the West Africa biodiversity hotspot; (2) to increase the protected area coverage of flat lands and low slopes; and (3) to enhance the size and connectivity of existing protected areas, including restoring degraded habitats. The study emphasizes that improving the ability of tropical protected areas to conserve nature and mitigate anthropogenic threats should be a global conservation priority. Improving the data quality and detail within the World Database on Protected Areas and ground-truthing them are recommended urgently to support accurate and informative assessments.

Impacts of Global Change on the Spatial Dynamics of Treeline in Venezuelan Andes

The treeline in the Andes is considered an essential ecotone between the Montane forest and Páramo. This treeline in the Venezuelan Andes corresponds with a transitional ecosystem defined as the Páramo forest. In this work, we identify and analyze the impact of climate warming and land transformation as agents altering the Páramo forest ecosystem’s spatial dynamics along the Venezuelan Andes’ altitudinal gradient. We carry out multitemporal studies of 57 years of the land transformation at different landscapes of the Cordillera de Mérida and made a detailed analysis to understand the replacement of the ecosystems potential distribution. We found that the main ecosystem transition is from Páramo to the Páramo forest and from Páramo to the Montane forest. Based on the difference between the current lower Páramo limit and the Forest upper limit for 1952, the treeline border’s displacement is 72.7 m in the 57 years of study, representing ∼12.8 m per decade. These changes are mainly driven by climate warming and are carried out through an ecological process of densification of the woody composition instead of the shrubland structure. We found that Páramo forest ecosystems practically have been replaced by the Pastures and fallow vegetation, and the Crops. We present a synthesis of the transition and displacement of the different ecosystems and vegetation types in the treeline zone. The impact of climate warming and deforestation on the Páramo forest as a representative ecosystem of the treeline shows us that this study is necessary for an integrated global change adaptation plan.

Plant Diversity and Composition Changes along an Altitudinal Gradient in the Isolated Volcano Sumaco in the Ecuadorian Amazon

The paramo is a unique and severely threatened ecosystem scattered in the high northern Andes of South America. However, several further, extra-Andean paramos exist, of which a particular case is situated on the active volcano Sumaco, in the northwestern Amazon Basin of Ecuador. We have set an elevational gradient of 600 m (3200–3800 m a.s.l.) and sampled a total of 21 vegetation plots, using the phytosociological method. All vascular plants encountered were typified by their taxonomy, life form and phytogeographic origin. In order to determine if plots may be ensembled into vegetation units and understand what the main environmental factors shaping this pattern are, a non-metric multidimensional scaling (NMDS) analysis was performed. In addition, species turnover was quantified in order to appreciate the quantity and sort of species which are responsible for the similarity or dissimilarity between vegetation units. Therefore, a SIMPER similarity percentage analysis was conducted. We encountered 68 plant species belonging to 54 genera and 31 families, of which three are Ecuadorian endemics. The most frequent life forms were erect herbs, rosette and tussocks, whereas the least were cushions. At genus level, 44% of the Sumaco paramo flora was of tropical origin, followed by temperate (33%) and finally cosmopolitan (22%). The neotropical montane element was the most represented with 15 species, followed by the Austral-Antarctic with ten, wide temperate with another ten and cosmopolitan with seven. Regarding vegetation, four floristically distinct groups were segregated being lower gradient (3250–3500 m a.s.l.) and high altitude (3500–3800 m a.s.l.)