Compactness regularization in the analysis of dipolar EPR spectroscopy data

Dipolar electron paramagnetic resonance (EPR) experiments, such as double electron-electron resonance (DEER), measure distributions of nanometer-scale distances between paramagnetic centers, which are valuable for structural characterization of proteins and other macromolecular systems. One challenge in the least-squares fitting analysis of dipolar EPR data is the separation of the inter-molecular contribution (background) and the intra-molecular contribution. For noisy experimental traces of insufficient length, this separation is not unique, leading to identifiability problems for the background model parameters and the long-distance region of the intra-molecular distance distribution. Here, we introduce a regularization approach that mitigates this by including an additional penalty term in the objective function that is proportional to the variance of the distance distribution and thereby penalizes non-compact distributions. We examine the reliability of this approach statistically on a large set of synthetic data and illustrate it with an experimental example. The results show that the introduction of compactness can improve identifiability.

Ecological forecasts reveal limitations of common model selection methods: predicting changes in beaver colony densities

Over the past two decades, there have been numerous calls to make ecology a more predictive science through direct empirical assessments of ecological models and predictions. While the widespread use of model selection using information criteria has pushed ecology toward placing a higher emphasis on prediction, few attempts have been made to validate the ability of information criteria to correctly identify the most parsimonious model with the greatest predictive accuracy. Here, we used an ecological forecasting framework to test the ability of information criteria to accurately predict the relative contribution of density dependence and density-independent factors (forage availability, harvest, weather, wolf [Canis lupus] density) on inter-annual fluctuations in beaver (Castor canadensis) colony densities. We modeled changes in colony densities using a discrete-time Gompertz model, and assessed the performance of four models using information criteria values: density-independent models with (1) and without (2) environmental covariates; and density-dependent models with (3) and without (4) environmental covariates. We then evaluated the forecasting accuracy of each model by withholding the final one-third of observations from each population and compared observed vs. predicted densities. Information criteria and our forecasting accuracy metrics both provided strong evidence of compensatory density dependence in the annual dynamics of beaver colony densities. However, despite strong within-sample performance by the most complex model (density-dependent with covariates) as determined using information criteria, hindcasts of colony densities revealed that the much simpler density-dependent model without covariates performed nearly as well predicting out-of-sample colony densities. The hindcast results indicated that the complex model over-fit our data, suggesting that parameters identified by information criteria as important predictor variables are only marginally valuable for predicting landscape-scale beaver colony dynamics. Our study demonstrates the importance of evaluating ecological models and predictions with long-term data and revealed how a known limitation of information criteria (over-fitting of complex models) can affect our interpretation of ecological dynamics. While incorporating knowledge of the factors that influence animal population dynamics can improve population forecasts, we suggest that comparing forecast performance metrics can likewise improve our knowledge of the factors driving population dynamics.