Early Estimated Glomerular Filtration Rate Trajectories After Kidney Transplant Biopsy as a Surrogate Endpoint for Graft Survival in Late Antibody-Mediated Rejection

Predictors of graft failure after first detection of de novo donor-specific HLA antibodies in kidney transplant recipients

BACKGROUND

De novo donor-specific antibodies (dnDSAs) may cause antibody-mediated rejection and graft dysfunction. Little is known about the clinical course after first detection of dnDSAs during screening in asymptomatic patients. We aimed to assess the value of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and proteinuria to predict graft failure in patients with dnDSAs and their potential utility as surrogate endpoints.

METHODS

All 400 kidney transplant recipients with dnDSAs at our centre (1 March 2000-31 May 2021) were included in this retrospective study. The dates of graft loss, rejection, doubling of creatinine, ≥30% eGFR decline, proteinuria ≥500 mg/g and ≥1000 mg/g were registered from the first dnDSA appearance.

RESULTS

During 8.3 years of follow-up, graft failure occurred in 33.3% of patients. Baseline eGFR and proteinuria correlated with 5-year graft loss (area under the receiver operating characteristics curve 0.75 and 0.80, P < .001). Creatinine doubled after a median of 2.8 years [interquartile range (IQR) 1.5-5.0] from dnDSA and the time from doubling creatinine to graft failure was 1.0 year (IQR 0.4-2.9). Analysing eGFR reduction ≥30% as a surrogate endpoint (148/400), the time from dnDSA to this event was 2.0 years (IQR 0.6-4.2), with a positive predictive value (PPV) of 45.9% to predict graft loss, which occurred after 2.0 years (IQR 0.8-3.2). The median time from proteinuria ≥500 mg/g and ≥1000 mg/g to graft failure was identical, 1.8 years, with a PPV of 43.8% and 49.0%, respectively. Composite endpoints did not improve PPV. Multivariable analysis showed that rejection was the most important independent risk factor for all renal endpoints and graft loss.

CONCLUSIONS

Renal function, proteinuria and rejection are strongly associated with graft failure in patients with dnDSA and may serve as surrogate endpoints.

Morphologic and Molecular Features of Antibody-Mediated Transplant Rejection: Pivotal Role of Molecular Injury as an Independent Predictor of Renal Allograft Functional Decline

Current knowledge about the factors correlating with functional decline and subsequent failure of kidney allografts in antibody-mediated rejection (ABMR) is limited. We conducted a cohort study involving 75 renal allograft recipients diagnosed with late ABMR occurring at least 6 months after transplantation. The study aimed to examine the correlation of molecular and histologic features with estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) trajectories and death-censored graft survival. We focused on sum scores reflecting histologic ABMR activity versus chronicity and molecular scores of ABMR probability (ABMRProb), injury-repair response (IRRAT) and fibrosis (ciprob). In multivariable Cox analysis, a Banff lesion-based chronicity index (ci+ct+cg[x2]; hazard ratio per interquartile range [IQR]: 1.97 [95% confidence interval: 0.97 to 3.99]) and IRRAT (1.93 [0.96 to 3.89]) showed the strongest associations with graft failure. Among biopsy variables, IRRAT exhibited the highest relative variable importance and emerged as the sole independent predictor of eGFR slope (change per IQR: -4.2 [-7.8 to -0.6] mL/min/1.73 m2/year). In contrast, morphologic chronicity associated with baseline eGFR only. We conclude that the extent of molecular injury is a robust predictor of renal function decline. Transcriptome analysis has the potential to improve outcome prediction and possibly identify modifiable injury, guiding targeted therapeutic interventions.