Prediction Models for Sepsis-Associated Thrombocytopenia Risk in Intensive Care Units Based on a Machine Learning Algorithm

An Individualized Nomogram for Predicting Mortality Risk of Septic Shock Patients During Hospitalization: A ten Years Retrospective Analysis

Purpose

We intend to develop a nomogram for predicting the mortality risk of hospitalized septic shock patients.

Patients and Methods

Data were collected from patients hospitalized with septic shock in Affiliated Dongyang Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University in China, over 10 years between January 2013 and January 2023. The eligible study participants were divided into modeling and validation groups. Factors independently related to the mortality in the modeling group were obtained by stepwise regression analysis. A logistic regression model and a nomogram were built. The model was evaluated based on the discrimination power (the area under the curve of the receiver operating characteristic, AUC), the calibration degree and decision curve analysis. In the validation group, the discrimination powers of the logistic regression model, the sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) scoring model and machine learning model were compared.

Results

A total of 1253 patients, including 878 patients in the modeling group and 375 patients in the validation group, were included in this study. Age, respiratory failure, serum cholinesterase, lactic acid, blood phosphorus, blood magnesium, total bilirubin, and pH were independent risk factors related to the mortality risk of septic shock. The AUCs of the prediction model for the modeling and validation groups were 0.881 and 0.868, respectively. The models had a good calibration degree and clinical applicability. The AUC of the SOFA model for the validation population was 0.799, significantly lower than that of our model. The AUCs of the random forest and ensemble models were 0.865 and 0.863, respectively, comparable to that of our logistical prediction model.

Conclusion

The model established in this study can effectively predict the mortality risk in patients hospitalized with septic shock. Thus, the model could be used clinically to determine the best therapy or management for patients with septic shock.

Applications of Artificial Intelligence in Thrombocytopenia

Thrombocytopenia is a medical condition where blood platelet count drops very low. This drop in platelet count can be attributed to many causes including medication, sepsis, viral infections, and autoimmunity. Clinically, the presence of thrombocytopenia might be very dangerous and is associated with poor outcomes of patients due to excessive bleeding if not addressed quickly enough. Hence, early detection and evaluation of thrombocytopenia is essential for rapid and appropriate intervention for these patients. Since artificial intelligence is able to combine and evaluate many linear and nonlinear variables simultaneously, it has shown great potential in its application in the early diagnosis, assessing the prognosis and predicting the distribution of patients with thrombocytopenia. In this review, we conducted a search across four databases and identified a total of 13 original articles that looked at the use of many machine learning algorithms in the diagnosis, prognosis, and distribution of various types of thrombocytopenia. We summarized the methods and findings of each article in this review. The included studies showed that artificial intelligence can potentially enhance the clinical approaches used in the diagnosis, prognosis, and treatment of thrombocytopenia.

Development of a Nomogram for Predicting Mortality Risk in Sepsis Patients During Hospitalization: A Retrospective Study

Purpose

We attempted to establish a model for predicting the mortality risk of sepsis patients during hospitalization.

Patients and Methods

Data on patients with sepsis were collected from a clinical record mining database, who were hospitalized at the Affiliated Dongyang Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University between January 2013 and August 2022. These included patients were divided into modeling and validation groups. In the modeling group, the independent risk factors of death during hospitalization were determined using univariate and multi-variate regression analyses. After stepwise regression analysis (both directions), a nomogram was drawn. The discrimination ability of the model was evaluated using the area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, and the GiViTI calibration chart assessed the model calibration. The Decline Curve Analysis (DCA) was performed to evaluate the clinical effectiveness of the prediction model. Among the validation group, the logistic regression model was compared to the models established by the SOFA scoring system, random forest method, and stacking method.

Results

A total of 1740 subjects were included in this study, 1218 in the modeling population and 522 in the validation population. The results revealed that serum cholinesterase, total bilirubin, respiratory failure, lactic acid, creatinine, and pro-brain natriuretic peptide were the independent risk factors of death. The AUC values in the modeling group and validation group were 0.847 and 0.826. The P values of calibration charts in the two population sets were 0.838 and 0.771. The DCA curves were above the two extreme curves. Moreover, the AUC values of the models established by the SOFA scoring system, random forest method, and stacking method in the validation group were 0.777, 0.827, and 0.832, respectively.

Conclusion

The nomogram model established by combining multiple risk factors could effectively predict the mortality risk of sepsis patients during hospitalization.

A prediction and interpretation machine learning framework of mortality risk among severe infection patients with pseudomonas aeruginosa

Pseudomonas aeruginosa is a ubiquitous opportunistic bacterial pathogen, which is a leading cause of nosocomial pneumonia. Early identification of the risk factors is urgently needed for severe infection patients with P. aeruginosa. However, no detailed relevant investigation based on machine learning has been reported, and little research has focused on exploring relationships between key risk clinical variables and clinical outcome of patients. In this study, we collected 571 severe infections with P. aeruginosa patients admitted to the Xijing Hospital of the Fourth Military Medical University from January 2010 to July 2021. Basic clinical information, clinical signs and symptoms, laboratory indicators, bacterial culture, and drug related were recorded. Machine learning algorithm of XGBoost was applied to build a model for predicting mortality risk of P. aeruginosa infection in severe patients. The performance of XGBoost model (AUROC = 0.94 ± 0.01, AUPRC = 0.94 ± 0.03) was greater than the performance of support vector machine (AUROC = 0.90 ± 0.03, AUPRC = 0.91 ± 0.02) and random forest (AUROC = 0.93 ± 0.03, AUPRC = 0.89 ± 0.04). This study also aimed to interpret the model and to explore the impact of clinical variables. The interpretation analysis highlighted the effects of age, high-alert drugs, and the number of drug varieties. Further stratification clarified the necessity of different treatment for severe infection for different populations.