Gradient boosting and bayesian network machine learning models predict aflatoxin and fumonisin contamination of maize in Illinois - First USA case study

Prediction of aflatoxin contamination outbreaks in Texas corn using mechanistic and machine learning models

Aflatoxins are carcinogenic and mutagenic mycotoxins that contaminate food and feed. The objective of our research is to predict aflatoxin outbreaks in Texas-grown maize using dynamic geospatial data from remote sensing satellites, soil properties data, and meteorological data by an ensemble of models. We developed three model pipelines: two included mechanistic models that use weekly aflatoxin risk indexes (ARIs) as inputs, and one included a weather-centric model; all three models incorporated soil properties as inputs. For the mechanistic-dependent models, ARIs were weighted based on a maize phenological model that used satellite-acquired normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data to predict maize planting dates for each growing season on a county basis. For aflatoxin outbreak predictions, we trained, tested and validated gradient boosting and neural network models using inputs of ARIs or weather, soil properties, and county geodynamic latitude and longitude references. Our findings indicated that between the two ARI-mechanistic models evaluated (AFLA-MAIZE or Ratkowsky), the best performing was the Ratkowsky-ARI neural network (nnet) model, with an accuracy of 73%, sensitivity of 71% and specificity of 74%. Texas has significant geographical variability in ARI and ARI-hotspot responses due to the diversity of agroecological zones (hot-dry, hot-humid, mixed-dry and mixed-humid) that result in a wide variation of maize growth and development. Our Ratkowsky-ARI nnet model identified a positive correlation between aflatoxin outbreaks and prevalence of ARI hot-spots in the hot-humid areas of Texas. In these areas, temperature, precipitation and relative humidity in March and October were positively correlated with high aflatoxin contamination events. We found a positive correlation between aflatoxin outbreaks and soil pH in hot-dry and hot-humid regions and minimum saturated hydraulic conductivity in mixed-dry regions. Conversely, there was a negative relationship between aflatoxin outbreaks and maximum soil organic matter (hot-dry region), and calcium carbonate (hot-dry, and mixed-dry). It is likely soil fungal communities are more diverse, and plants are healthier in soils with high organic matter content, thereby reducing the risk of aflatoxin outbreaks. Our results demonstrate that intricate relationships between soil hydrological parameters, fungal communities and plant health should be carefully considered by Texas corn growers for aflatoxin mitigation strategies.

Prediction of deoxynivalenol contamination in spring oats in Sweden using explainable artificial intelligence

Weather conditions and agronomical factors are known to affect Fusarium spp. growth and ultimately deoxynivalenol (DON) contamination in oat. This study aimed to develop predictive models for the contamination of spring oat at harvest with DON on a regional basis in Sweden using machine-learning algorithms. Three models were developed as regional risk-assessment tools for farmers, crop collectors, and food safety inspectors, respectively. Data included: weather data from different oat growing periods, agronomical data, site-specific data, and DON contamination data from the previous year. Results showed that: (1) RF models were able to predict DON contamination at harvest with a total classification accuracy of minimal 0.72; (2) good predictions could already be made in June; (3) rainfall, relative humidity, and wind speed in different oat growing stages, followed by crop variety and elevation were the most important features for predicting DON contamination in spring oats at harvest.

Prediction Model of Ocular Metastases in Gastric Adenocarcinoma: Machine Learning-Based Development and Interpretation Study

Background: Although gastric adenocarcinoma (GA) related ocular metastasis (OM) is rare, its occurrence indicates a more severe disease. We aimed to utilize machine learning (ML) to analyze the risk factors of GA-related OM and predict its risks. Methods: This is a retrospective cohort study. The clinical data of 3532 GA patients were collected and randomly classified into training and validation sets in a ratio of 7:3. Those with or without OM were classified into OM and non-OM (NOM) groups. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator were conducted. We integrated the variables identified through feature importance ranking and further refined the selection process using forward sequential feature selection based on random forest (RF) algorithm before incorporating them into the ML model. We applied six ML algorithms to construct the predictive GA model. The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve indicated the model's predictive ability. Also, we established a network risk calculator based on the best performance model. We used Shapley additive interpretation (SHAP) to identify risk factors and to confirm the interpretability of the black box model. We have de-identified all patient details. Results: The ML model, consisting of 13 variables, achieved an optimal predictive performance using the gradient boosting machine (GBM) model, with an impressive area under the curve (AUC) of 0.997 in the test set. Utilizing the SHAP method, we identified crucial factors for OM in GA patients, including LDL, CA724, CEA, AFP, CA125, Hb, CA153, and Ca2+. Additionally, we validated the model's reliability through an analysis of two patient cases and developed a functional online web prediction calculator based on the GBM model. Conclusion: We used the ML method to establish a risk prediction model for GA-related OM and showed that GBM performed best among the six ML models. The model may identify patients with GA-related OM to provide early and timely treatment.

Prevalence and Risk Assessment of Aflatoxin in Iowa Corn during a Drought Year

Warm temperatures and drought conditions in the United States (US) Corn Belt in 2012 raised concern for widespread aflatoxin (AFL) contamination in Iowa corn. To identify the prevalence of AFL in the 2012 corn crop, the Iowa Department of Agriculture and Land Stewardship (IDALS) conducted a sample of Iowa corn to assess the incidence and severity of AFL contamination. Samples were obtained from grain elevators in all of Iowa's 99 counties, representing nine crop reporting districts (CRD), and 396 samples were analyzed by IDALS using rapid test methods. The statewide mean for AFL in parts per billion (ppb) was 5.57 ppb. Regions of Iowa differed in their incidence levels, with AFL levels significantly higher in the Southwest (SW; mean 15.13 ppb) and South Central (SC; mean 10.86 ppb) CRD (p < 0.05) regions of Iowa. This sampling demonstrated high variability among samples collected within CRD and across the entire state of Iowa in an extreme weather event year. In years when Iowa has AFL contamination in corn, there is a need for a proactive and preventive strategy to minimize hazards in domestic and export markets.

Dynamic geospatial modeling of mycotoxin contamination of corn in Illinois: unveiling critical factors and predictive insights with machine learning

Mycotoxin contamination of corn is a pervasive problem that negatively impacts human and animal health and causes economic losses to the agricultural industry worldwide. Historical aflatoxin (AFL) and fumonisin (FUM) mycotoxin contamination data of corn, daily weather data, satellite data, dynamic geospatial soil properties, and land usage parameters were modeled to identify factors significantly contributing to the outbreaks of mycotoxin contamination of corn grown in Illinois (IL), AFL >20 ppb, and FUM >5 ppm. Two methods were used: a gradient boosting machine (GBM) and a neural network (NN). Both the GBM and NN models were dynamic at a state-county geospatial level because they used GPS coordinates of the counties linked to soil properties. GBM identified temperature and precipitation prior to sowing as significant influential factors contributing to high AFL and FUM contamination. AFL-GBM showed that a higher aflatoxin risk index (ARI) in January, March, July, and November led to higher AFL contamination in the southern regions of IL. Higher values of corn-specific normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) in July led to lower AFL contamination in Central and Southern IL, while higher wheat-specific NDVI values in February led to higher AFL. FUM-GBM showed that temperature in July and October, precipitation in February, and NDVI values in March are positively correlated with high contamination throughout IL. Furthermore, the dynamic geospatial models showed that soil characteristics were correlated with AFL and FUM contamination. Greater calcium carbonate content in soil was negatively correlated with AFL contamination, which was noticeable in Southern IL. Greater soil moisture and available water-holding capacity throughout Southern IL were positively correlated with high FUM contamination. The higher clay percentage in the northeastern areas of IL negatively correlated with FUM contamination. NN models showed high class-specific performance for 1-year predictive validation for AFL (73%) and FUM (85%), highlighting their accuracy for annual mycotoxin prediction. Our models revealed that soil, NDVI, year-specific weekly average precipitation, and temperature were the most important factors that correlated with mycotoxin contamination. These findings serve as reliable guidelines for future modeling efforts to identify novel data inputs for the prediction of AFL and FUM outbreaks and potential farm-level management practices.

Gradient boosting machine learning model to predict aflatoxins in Iowa corn

Introduction

Aflatoxin (AFL), a secondary metabolite produced from filamentous fungi, contaminates corn, posing significant health and safety hazards for humans and livestock through toxigenic and carcinogenic effects. Corn is widely used as an essential commodity for food, feed, fuel, and export markets; therefore, AFL mitigation is necessary to ensure food and feed safety within the United States (US) and elsewhere in the world. In this case study, an Iowa-centric model was developed to predict AFL contamination using historical corn contamination, meteorological, satellite, and soil property data in the largest corn-producing state in the US.

Methods

We evaluated the performance of AFL prediction with gradient boosting machine (GBM) learning and feature engineering in Iowa corn for two AFL risk thresholds for high contamination events: 20-ppb and 5-ppb. A 90%-10% training-to-testing ratio was utilized in 2010, 2011, 2012, and 2021 (n = 630), with independent validation using the year 2020 (n = 376).

Results

The GBM model had an overall accuracy of 96.77% for AFL with a balanced accuracy of 50.00% for a 20-ppb risk threshold, whereas GBM had an overall accuracy of 90.32% with a balanced accuracy of 64.88% for a 5-ppb threshold. The GBM model had a low power to detect high AFL contamination events, resulting in a low sensitivity rate. Analyses for AFL showed satellite-acquired vegetative index during August significantly improved the prediction of corn contamination at the end of the growing season for both risk thresholds. Prediction of high AFL contamination levels was linked to aflatoxin risk indices (ARI) in May. However, ARI in July was an influential factor for the 5-ppb threshold but not for the 20-ppb threshold. Similarly, latitude was an influential factor for the 20-ppb threshold but not the 5-ppb threshold. Furthermore, soil-saturated hydraulic conductivity (Ksat) influenced both risk thresholds.

Discussion

Developing these AFL prediction models is practical and implementable in commodity grain handling environments to achieve the goal of preventative rather than reactive mitigations. Finding predictors that influence AFL risk annually is an important cost-effective risk tool and, therefore, is a high priority to ensure hazard management and optimal grain utilization to maximize the utility of the nation's corn crop.