The SON2A2 score: A novel grading scale for predicting hemorrhage and outcomes after thrombolysis

Traditional and machine learning models for predicting haemorrhagic transformation in ischaemic stroke: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Haemorrhagic transformation (HT) is a severe complication after ischaemic stroke, but identifying patients at high risks remains challenging. Although numerous prediction models have been developed for HT following thrombolysis, thrombectomy, or spontaneous occurrence, a comprehensive summary is lacking. This study aimed to review and compare traditional and machine learning-based HT prediction models, focusing on their development, validation, and diagnostic accuracy.

METHODS

PubMed and Ovid-Embase were searched for observational studies or randomised controlled trials related to traditional or machine learning-based models. Data were extracted according to Critical Appraisal and Data Extraction for Systematic Reviews of Prediction Modelling Studies (CHARMS) checklist and risk of bias was assessed using the Prediction model Risk Of Bias ASsessment Tool (PROBAST). Performance data for prediction models that were externally validated at least twice and showed low risk of bias were meta-analysed.

RESULTS

A total of 100 studies were included, with 67 focusing on model development and 33 on model validation. Among 67 model development studies, 44 were traditional model studies involving 47 prediction models (with National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score being the most frequently used predictor in 35 models), and 23 studies focused on machine learning prediction models (with support vector machines being the most common algorithm, used in 10 models). The 33 validation studies externally validated 34 traditional prediction models. Regarding study quality, 26 studies were assessed as having a low risk of bias, 11 as unclear, and 63 as high risk of bias. Meta-analysis of 15 studies validating eight models showed a pooled area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of approximately 0.70 for predicting HT.

CONCLUSION

While significant progress has been made in developing HT prediction models, both traditional and machine learning-based models still have limitations in methodological rigour, predictive accuracy, and clinical applicability. Future models should undergo more rigorous validation, adhere to standardised reporting frameworks, and prioritise predictors that are both statistically significant and clinically meaningful. Collaborative efforts across research groups are essential for validating these models in diverse populations and improving their broader applicability in clinical practice.

SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION

International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews (CRD42022332816).

CT Texture-Based Nomogram in Ischemic Stroke to Differentiate Intracerebral Hemorrhage from Contrast Extravasation after Thrombectomy

INTRODUCTION

Post-thrombectomy intraparenchymal hyperdensity (PTIH) in patients with acute ischemic stroke is a common CT sign, making it difficult for physicians to distinguish intracerebral hemorrhage in the early post-thrombectomy period. The aim of this study was to develop an effective model to differentiate intracerebral hemorrhage from contrast extravasation in patients with PTIH.

METHODS

We retrospectively collected information on patients who underwent endovascular thrombectomy at two stroke centers between August 2017 and January 2023. A total of 222 patients were included in the study, including 118 patients in the development cohort, 52 patients in the internal validation cohort, and 52 patients in the external validation cohort. The nomogram was constructed using R software based on independent predictors derived from the multivariate logistic regression analysis, including clinical factors and CT texture features extracted from hyperdense areas on CT images. The performance and accuracy of the derived nomogram were assessed by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC-ROC) and calibration curves. Additionally, decision curve analysis was conducted to appraise the clinical utility of the nomogram.

RESULTS

Our nomogram was derived from two clinical factors (ASPECT score and onset to reperfusion time) and two CT texture features (variance and uniformity), with AUC-ROC of 0.943, 0.930, and 0.937 in the development, internal validation, and external validation cohorts, respectively. Furthermore, the calibration plot exhibited a strong agreement between the predicted outcome and the actual outcome. In addition, the decision curve analysis revealed the clinical utility of the nomogram in accurately predicting hemorrhage in patients with PTIH.

CONCLUSION

The developed nomogram, based on clinical factors and CT texture features, proves to be effective in distinguishing intracerebral hemorrhage from contrast extravasation in patients with PTIH.