Significance of Time Until PSA Recurrence After Radical Prostatectomy Without Neo- or Adjuvant Treatment to Clinical Progression and Cancer-Related Death in High-Risk Prostate Cancer Patients

National Long-term Survival Estimates After Radical Prostatectomy for Prostate Cancer

OBJECTIVE

To examine survival and disease control outcomes, including metastasis-related survival outcomes, in a large contemporary cohort of patients undergoing radical prostatectomy for localized prostate cancer.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective study of men with localized prostate cancer treated with radical prostatectomy from 2005 to 2015 with follow-up through 2019 in the Veterans Health Administration. We defined biochemical recurrence (BCR) as a prostate-specific antigen ≥0.2 ng/mL. We used a validated natural language processing encoded dataset to identify incident metastatic prostate cancer. We estimated overall survival from time of surgery, time of BCR, and time of first metastasis using the Kaplan-Meier method. We then estimated time from surgery to BCR, BCR to metastatic disease, and prostate-cancer-specific survival from various time points using cumulative incidence considering competing risk of death.

RESULTS

Of 21,992 men undergoing radical prostatectomy, we identified 5951 (27%) who developed BCR. Of men with BCR, 677 (11%) developed metastases. We estimated the 10-year cumulative incidence of BCR and metastases after BCR were 28% and 20%, respectively. Median overall survival after BCR was 14years, with 10-year survival of 70%. From the time of metastasis, median overall survival approached 7years, with 10-year overall survival of 34%. Prostate cancer-specific survival for the entire cohort at 10years was 94%.

CONCLUSION

In this large contemporary national cohort, survival for men with biochemically recurrent prostate cancer is longer than historical cohorts. When counseling patients and designing clinical studies, these updated estimates may serve as more reliable reflections of current outcomes.

Development of a ferroptosis-based molecular markers for predicting RFS in prostate cancer patients

The goal of this study was to develop a ferroptosis-based molecular signature that can predict recurrence-free survival (RFS) in patients with prostate cancer (PCa). In this study, we obtained ferroptosis-related genes (FRGs) in FerrDb database and clinical transcriptome data in TCGA database and GEO database. Consensus cluster analysis was used to identify three molecular markers of ferroptosis in PCa with differential expression of 40 FRGs, including PD-L1 expression levels. We conducted a new ferroptosis-related signature for PCa RFS using four FRGs identified through univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses. The signature was validated in the training, testing, and validation cohorts, and it demonstrated remarkable results in the area under the time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve of 0.757, 0.715, and 0.732, respectively. Additionally, we observed that younger patients, those with stage T III and stage T IV, stage N0, cluster 1, and cluster 2 PCa were more accurately predicted by the signature as independent predictors of RFS. DU-145 and RWPE-1 cells were successfully analyzed by qRT-PCR and Western blot for ASNS, GPT2, RRM2, and NFE2L2. In summary, we developed a novel ferroptosis-based signature for RFS in PC, utilizing four FRGs identified through univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses. This signature was rigorously validated across training, testing, and validation cohorts, demonstrating exceptional performance as evidenced by its ROC curves. Notably, our findings indicate that this signature is particularly effective as an independent predictor of RFS in younger patients or those with stage T III and T IV, stage N0, and in clusters 1 and 2. Finally, we confirmed the expression of these four FRGs in DU-145 and RWPE-1 cell lines.

Circulating tumour cells for early detection of clinically relevant cancer

Given that cancer mortality is usually a result of late diagnosis, efforts in the field of early detection are paramount to reducing cancer-related deaths and improving patient outcomes. Increasing evidence indicates that metastasis is an early event in patients with aggressive cancers, often occurring even before primary lesions are clinically detectable. Metastases are usually formed from cancer cells that spread to distant non-malignant tissues via the blood circulation, termed circulating tumour cells (CTCs). CTCs have been detected in patients with early stage cancers and, owing to their association with metastasis, might indicate the presence of aggressive disease, thus providing a possible means to expedite diagnosis and treatment initiation for such patients while avoiding overdiagnosis and overtreatment of those with slow-growing, indolent tumours. The utility of CTCs as an early diagnostic tool has been investigated, although further improvements in the efficiency of CTC detection are required. In this Perspective, we discuss the clinical significance of early haematogenous dissemination of cancer cells, the potential of CTCs to facilitate early detection of clinically relevant cancers, and the technological advances that might improve CTC capture and, thus, diagnostic performance in this setting.

The Transcriptomic Profiles of ESR1 and MMP3 Stratify the Risk of Biochemical Recurrence in Primary Prostate Cancer beyond Clinical Features

The molecular determinants of the heterogenic course of prostate cancer (PC) remain elusive. We aimed to determine the drivers predisposing to unfavorable PC outcomes anticipated by BCR events among patients of similar preoperative characteristics. The TCGA transcriptomic and clinical data of 497 PC individuals were used, stratified according to the risk of BCR by EAU-EANM-ESTRO-ESUR-SIOG. The relevance of the functional markers regarding BCR-free survival was examined by the cutp algorithm. Through UpSetR, subgroups of PC patients bearing an unfavorable signature were identified, followed by the hierarchical clustering of the major markers of the epithelial-to-mesenchymal transition (EMT). BCR-free survival was estimated with the Cox proportional hazards regression model. ESR1 significantly differentiated BCR-free survival, whereas AR did not. An elevation in KLK3 correlated with better prognosis, although PGR, KLK3, CDH1, and MMP3 predicted BCR better than the preoperative PSA level. Patients sharing an unfavorable profile of ESR1 and MMP3 together with lymph node status, Gleason score, T, and EAU risk groups were at a higher risk of BCR originating from mesenchymal features of PC cells. To conclude, we revealed an ESR1-driven unfavorable profile of EMT underpinning a worse PC trajectory. ESR1 may have a major role in PC progression; therefore, it could become a major focus for further investigations.

Comprehensive analysis of the biological functions of endoplasmic reticulum stress in prostate cancer

INTRODUCTION

Endoplasmic reticulum stress (ERS) has sizeable affect on cancer proliferation, metastasis, immunotherapy and chemoradiotherapy resistance. However, the effect of ERS on the biochemical recurrence (BCR) of prostate cancer patients remains elusive. Here, we generated an ERS-related genes risk signature to evaluate the physiological function of ERS in PCa with BCR.

METHODS

We collected the ERS-related genes from the GeneCards. The edgeR package was used to screen the differential ERS-related genes in PCa from TCGA datasets. ERS-related gene risk signature was then established using LASSO and multivariate Cox regression models and validated by GEO data sets. Nomogram was developed to assess BCR-free survival possibility. Meanwhile, the correlations between ERS-related signature, gene mutations, drug sensitivity and tumor microenvironment were also investigated.

RESULTS

We obtained an ERS risk signature consisting of five genes (AFP, COL10A1, DNAJB1, EGF and PTGS2). Kaplan Meier survival analysis and ROC Curve analysis indicated that the high risk score of ERS-related gene signature was associated with poor BCR-free prognosis in PCa patients. Besides, immune cell infiltration and immune checkpoint expression levels differed between high- and low-risk scoring subgroups. Moreover, drug sensitivity analyzed indicated that high-risk score group may be involved in apoptosis pathway.

DISCUSSION

This study comprehensively analyzed the characteristics of ERS related genes in PCa, and created a five-gene signature, which could effectively predict the BCR time of PCa patients. Targeting ERS related genes and pathways may provide potential guidance for the treatment of PCa.

Androgen-deprivation therapy and risk of death from cardio-vascular disease in prostate cancer patients: a nationwide lithuanian population-based cohort study

Purpose: The main purpose of this study was to evaluate the risk of CVD mortality in the national cohort of patients diagnosed with prostate cancer and treated with ADT compared with the ADT non-users.Materials and methods: We performed a retrospective cohort study of patients aged 40-79 years and diagnosed with prostate cancer between 1 January 2012 and 31 December 2016 using the Lithuanian Cancer registry data. In total, 13 343 prostate cancer patients were included in the final study cohort who exclusively used gonadotropin-releasing hormone agonists. The primary outcomes that were registered during the follow-up of this study were overall CVD death.Results: There was a higher risk of CVD death in the cohort of patients treated with ADT than in ADT non-users (HR 2.14, 95% CI [1.86-2.45], p < 0.001). Moreover, there was an increased risk of death from ischemic heart disease and stroke (HR 1.42, 95% CI [1.16-1.73] and 1.70, 95% CI [1.18-2.45], respectively) among ADT users. Finally, the risk of CVD-related mortality was highest in the 70-79 age group of ADT users (HR 4.78, 95% CI [3.79-6.04]).Conclusions: This study shows that ADT usage is associated with increased CVD-related mortality risk for patients diagnosed with prostate cancer compared with ADT non-users. The highest mortality risk was found for ischemic heart disease and stroke. CVD-related mortality was increased in the elder group of patients also.

Nomograms and scoring system for forecasting overall and cancer-specific survival of patients with prostate cancer

BACKGROUND

Estimated life expectancy is one of the most important factors in determining treatment options for prostate cancer (PCa) patients. However, clinicians have few effective prognostic tools to individually assess survival in patients with PCa.

METHODS

We screened 283,252 patients diagnosed with PCa from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database between 2004 and 2015, and randomly divided them into the training and validation groups. We used univariate and multivariate Cox analyses to identify independent prognostic factors and further established nomograms to predict 1-, 3-, 5-, and 10-year overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) for PCa patients. The prediction performance of nomograms was tested and externally validated by Concordance index (C-index) and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. Calibration curve and decision curve analysis (DCA) were used for internal validation. We further developed PCa prognostic scoring system based on the impact of available variables on survival.

RESULTS

The variables age, race, marital status, TNM stage, surgery method, radiotherapy, chemotherapy, PSA value, and Gleason score identified as independent prognostic factors were included in the survival nomograms. The results of training (C-index: OS = 0.776, CSS = 0.889; AUC value: OS = 0.772-0.802, CSS = 0.892-0.936) and external validation (C-index: OS = 0.759, CSS = 0.875) indicated our nomograms had good performance in predicting 1-, 3-, 5-, and 10-year OS and CSS prediction. Internal validation using the calibration curves and DCA curves demonstrated the effectiveness of the prediction models. The prognostic scoring system was more effective than the AJCC staging system in predicting the survival of PCa patients, especially for OS.

CONCLUSION

The prognostic nomograms and prognostic scoring system have favorable performance in predicting OS and CSS of PCa patients. These individualized survival prediction tools may contribute to clinical decisions.

Clinicopathological and oncological significance of persistent prostate-specific antigen after radical prostatectomy: A systematic review and meta-analysis

Objective

To investigate the association of persistently elevated prostate-specific antigen (PSA) after radical prostatectomy (RP) with clinicopathological features and long-term oncological prognosis for the development of a potential management strategy.

Methods

A systematic literature search was performed using PubMed and Web of Science up to June 2021 to identify the eligible studies focusing on understanding the impact of persistent PSA in patients who underwent RP for localized prostate cancer. Meta-analyses were performed on parameters with available information.

Results

A total of 32 RP studies were identified, of which 11 included 26 719 patients with consecutive cohorts and the remaining 21 comprised 24 177 patients with cohorts carrying specific restrictions. Of the 11 studies with consecutive cohorts, the incidence of persistent PSA varied between 3.1% and 34.6% with a median of 11.0%. Meta-analyses revealed patients with persistent PSA consistently showed unfavorable clinicopathological features and a more than 3.5-fold risk of poorer biochemical recurrence, metastasis, and prostate cancer-specific mortality prognosis independently, when compared to patients with undetectable PSA. Similarly, cases with persistent PSA in different specific patient cohorts with a higher risk of prostate cancer also showed a trend of worse outcomes.

Conclusion

We found that the frequency of persistent PSA was about 11.0% in consecutive RP cohorts. Persistent PSA was significantly associated with unfavorable clinicopathological characteristics and worse oncological outcomes. Patients with persistent PSA after RP may benefit from early salvage treatment to delay or prevent biochemical recurrence, improving oncological outcomes for these patients. Further prospective randomized controlled trials are warranted to understand optimal systemic therapy in these patients.

Genetic variant located on chromosome 17p12 contributes to prostate cancer onset and biochemical recurrence

The genetic contribution to prostate cancer (PC) onset and clinical heterogeneity has an important impact on the disease stratification accuracy. Despite the fact that radical prostatectomy (RP) is an effective treatment for localized PC, a considerable number of individuals develop biochemical recurrence (BCR) following surgery. In the present study, we decided to investigate the significance of genetic variability in a homogeneous group of Romanian men and to determine if genotyping could provide information regarding the possible implications of rs4054823 susceptibility loci in PC progression and outcome. A total of 78 samples from both PC and benign prostatic hyperplasia (BPH) patients were genotyped. The genotype frequencies were examined to see if there was a link between the 17p12 SNP and PC disease. When compared to the BPH group, the PC group had a significantly higher frequency of the T risk variant (P = 0.0056) and TT genotype (P = 0.0164). Subsequent analysis revealed that the TT genotype had a significantly higher frequency among younger PC patients based on their age at diagnosis and that it was related with a greater probability of BCR (P = 0.02). According to our findings, the TT genotype appears to be a risk factor for early-onset PC and a potential predictor for BCR after RP.

A Novel Ferroptosis-Based Molecular Signature Associated with Biochemical Recurrence-Free Survival and Tumor Immune Microenvironment of Prostate Cancer

Objective: To identify ferroptosis-related molecular clusters, and to develop and validate a ferroptosis-based molecular signature for predicting biochemical recurrence-free survival (BCRFS) and tumor immune microenvironment of prostate cancer (PCa). Materials and Methods: The clinical data and transcriptome data of PCa were downloaded from TCGA and GEO database. Ferroptosis-related genes (FRGs) were obtained from FerrDb database. We performed consensus clustering analysis to identify ferroptosis-related molecular subtypes for PCa. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analysis were used to establish a ferroptosis-based signature for predicting BCRFS. Internal verification, external verification and subgroup survival analysis were then successfully performed. Results: There was a total of 40 differentially expressed FRGs in PCa. We then identified three ferroptosis-related molecular clusters of PCa, which have significantly different immune infiltrating cells, tumor immune microenvironment and PD-L1 expression level. More importantly, a novel ferroptosis-based signature for predicting BCRFS of PCa based on four FRGs (including ASNS, GPT2, NFE2L2, RRM2) was developed. Internal and external verifications were then successfully performed. Patients with high-risk score were associated with significant poor BCRFS compared with those with low-risk score in training cohort, testing cohort and validating cohort, respectively. The area under time-dependent Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve were 0.755, 0.705 and 0.726 in training cohort, testing cohort and validating cohort, respectively, indicating the great performance of this signature. Independent prognostic analysis indicated that this signature was an independent predictor for BCRFS of PCa. Subgroup analysis revealed that this signature was particularly suitable for younger or stage T III-IV or stage N0 or cluster 1-2 PCa patients. Patients with high-risk score have significantly different tumor immune microenvironment in comparison with those with low-risk score. The results of qRT-PCR successfully verified the mRNA expression levels of ASNS, GPT2, RRM2 and NFE2L2 in DU-145 and RWPE-1 cells while the results of IHC staining exactly verified the relative protein expression levels of ASNS, GPT2, RRM2 and NFE2L2 between PCa and BPH tissues. Conclusions: This study successfully identified three ferroptosis-related molecular clusters. Besides, we developed and validated a novel ferroptosis-based molecular signature, which performed well in predicting BCRFS and tumor immune microenvironment of PCa.

PSA density of the lesion: a mathematical formula that uses clinical and pathological data to predict biochemical recurrence in prostate cancer patients

A main challenge in the clinical management of prostate cancer is to identify which tumor is aggressive and needs invasive treatment. Thus, being able to predict which cancer will progress to biochemical recurrence is a great strategy to stratify prostate cancer patients. With that in mind, we created a mathematical formula that takes into account the patients clinical and pathological data resulting in a quantitative variable, called PSA density of the lesion, which has the potential to predict biochemical recurrence. To test if our variable is able to predict biochemical recurrence, we use a cohort of 219 prostate cancer patients, associating our new variable and classic parameters of prostate cancer with biochemical recurrence. Total PSA, lesion weight, volume and classic PSA density were positively associated with biochemical recurrence (p<0.05). ISUP score was also associated with biochemical recurrence in both biopsy and surgical specimen (p<0.001). The increase of PSA density of the lesion was significantly associated with the biochemical recurrence (p=0.03). Variables derived from the formula, PSA 15% and PSA 152, were also positive associated with the biochemical recurrence (p=0.01 and p=0.002 respectively). Logistic regression analysis shows that classic PSA density, PSA density of the lesion and total PSA, together, can explain up to 13% of cases of biochemical recurrence. PSA density of the lesion alone would have the ability to explain up to 7% of cases of biochemical recurrence. In conclusion, this new mathematical approach could be a useful tool to predict disease recurrence in prostate cancer.

Benefits of early salvage therapy on oncological outcomes in high-risk prostate cancer with persistent PSA after radical prostatectomy

BACKGROUND

Patients with prostate-specific antigen (PSA) persistence are at the increased risk of disease progression. The aim of our study was to evaluate the impact of early salvage therapy on oncological outcomes in patients with persistent PSA after radical prostatectomy (RP).

METHODS

Within a single tertiary centre database, we identified men with persistent (≥ 0.1 ng/ml) versus undetectable (< 0.1 ng/ml) PSA 4-8 weeks after RP for high-risk prostate cancer (HRPCa). The cumulative incidence function was used to estimate cancer-specific survival (CSS) and clinical progression-free survival (CPFS). The Kaplan-Meier method was used to estimate overall survival (OS). The effects on oncological outcomes of salvage radiotherapy (SRT) ± androgen deprivation therapy (ADT) vs. ADT monotherapy were tested in the subgroup of patients with persistent PSA.

RESULTS

Of 414 consecutive patients who underwent RP for HRPC, 125 (30.2%) had persistent PSA. Estimated 10-year CPFS, CSS and OS for men with persistent vs. undetectable PSA were 63.8% vs. 93.5%, 78.5% vs. 98.3% and 54% vs. 83.2% (all p < 0.0001), respectively. In men with persistent PSA, ADT alone was associated with higher risk (hazard ratio (HR) for worse CSS (HR 3.9, p = 0.005) and OS (HR 4.7, p < 0.0001) but not for CP (HR 1.6, p = 0.2) when compared with SRT ± ADT.

CONCLUSION

In patients who underwent RP for HRPCa, persistent PSA was associated with poor oncological outcomes. Early SRT ± ADT resulted in significantly improved CSS and OS in men with persistent PSA comparing with early androgen deprivation monotherapy.

Head-to-Head Comparison of Two Nomograms Predicting Probability of Lymph Node Invasion in Prostate Cancer and the Therapeutic Impact of Higher Nomogram Threshold

Introduction: The aim of the study was to compare the performance of the 2012 Briganti and Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center (MSKCC) nomograms as a predictor for pelvic lymph node invasion (LNI) in men who underwent radical prostatectomy (RP) with pelvic lymph node dissection (PLND), to examine their performance and to analyse the therapeutic impact of using 7% nomogram cut-off. Materials and Methods: The study cohort consisted of 807 men with clinically localised prostate cancer (PCa) who underwent open RP with PLND between 2001 and 2019. The area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operator characteristic analysis was used to quantify the accuracy of the 2012 Briganti and MSKCC nomograms to predict LNI. Calibration plots were used to visualise over or underestimation by the models and a decision curve analysis (DCA) was performed to evaluate the net benefit associated with the used nomograms. Results: A total of 97 of 807 patients had LNI (12%). The AUC of 2012 Briganti and MSKCC nomogram was 80.6 and 79.2, respectively. For the Briganti nomogram using the cut-off value of 7% would lead to reduce PLND in 47% (379/807), while missing 3.96% (15/379) cases with LNI. For the MSKCC nomogram using the cut-off value of 7% a PLND would be omitted in 44.5% (359/807), while missing 3.62% (13/359) of cases with LNI. Conclusions: Both analysed nomograms demonstrated high accuracy for prediction of LNI. Using a 7% nomogram cut-off would allow the avoidance up to 47% of PLNDs, while missing less than 4% of patients with LNI.

Prognostic Significance of Prostate-Specific Antigen Persistence after Radical Prostatectomy: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis to assess the prognostic value of prostate-specific antigen (PSA) persistence 4-8 weeks after radical prostatectomy (RP) in patients with prostate cancer, using studies from Medline, Scopus, and Cochrane Library, on 10 October 2020. Studies were eligible if they compared patients with postoperative PSA persistence 4-8 weeks after RP to those without such persistence to assess the value of PSA persistence in prognosticating biochemical recurrence (BCR), disease recurrence, cancer-specific mortality (CSM), and overall mortality (OM) by multivariable analysis. Our review and analysis included nine studies published between 2008 and 2019 with 14,455 patients. Of those studies, 12.0% showed postoperative PSA persistence. PSA persistence was associated with BCR (HR: 4.44, 95% CI: 2.84-6.93), disease recurrence (HR: 3.43, 95% CI: 1.62-7.25), and CSM (HR: 2.32, 95% CI: 1.83-2.95). We omitted meta-analysis on the association of PSA persistence with OM due to an insufficient number of studies. PSA persistence was associated with disease recurrence in a sub-group of patients with pathological nodal involvement (HR: 5.90, 95% CI: 3.76-9.24). Understanding detection of PSA persistence at 4-8 weeks after RP might be useful for patient counseling, follow-up scheduling, and clinical decision-making regarding adjuvant therapies.

Long-Term Recurrence of Completely Resected NSCLC

Introduction

The aim of this study is to evaluate the clinical backgrounds, including driver mutations, of those patients with early stage NSCLC who experienced recurrence beyond 5 years after complete resection.

Methods

We used a cohort of 512 consecutive cases of surgically resected NSCLC without other malignances from 2006 to 2011 in Aichi Cancer Center Hospital. The inclusion criteria for this cohort were patients with primary NSCLC who underwent a surgically curable operation.

Results

A total of 172 patients (32.8%) had recurrence after the surgery. Among the recurrent cases, 17 patients (3.3%) had a relapse more than 5 years after the surgery, and all except one (16 of 17, 94.1%) had driver mutations, including gene rearrangements.

Conclusions

Even in early stage NSCLC after complete resection, it was found that some cases had a relapse more than 5 years after the surgery. Most of these cases had some kind of driver mutations; so more than 5 years of postoperative surveillance may be beneficial, especially in those with driver gene mutants.

Association Between Contrast-Enhanced Ultrasound Indicators and Prostate Cancer Biochemical Recurrence After Treatment

Background

Some patients with prostate cancer (PCa) will experience biochemical recurrence (BCR) after treatment. Current researches have identified the influencing factors of BCR, but these factors are difficult to quantify and hence unable to accurately predict the BCR in PCa patients.

Objective

To explore the value of contrast-enhanced ultrasound (CEUS) indicators in predicting the BCR after treatment by evaluating the association between them.

Patients and Methods

In a retrospective cohort study, 157 PCa patients were recruited and received prostate specific antigen (PSA) measurement, CEUS, pathological classification, and immunohistochemistry after puncture biopsy. PCa patients with BCR were included in the recurrence group, while the remaining patients were included in the non-recurrence group after a 5-year follow-up. The clinical characteristics and CEUS indicators were compared between the two groups, and the multivariable COX regression was used for screening the influencing factors of BCR. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were used to analyze the value of potential factors in predicting BCR. The effect of the combined prediction model was explored to improve the accuracy of the prediction.

Results

Twelve patients are lost during the follow-up period and the final analysis included 145 patients. The 5-year BCR rate of PCa patients was 27%, with 43 patients in the recurrence group and 102 patients in the non-recurrence group. Multivariate analysis showed that lymph node metastasis (P<0.001), distant metastasis (P<0.001), Gleason score (P<0.001), pretreatment PSA (P<0.001), treatment method (P<0.001), peak intensity (PI) (P=0.001), and time to peak (TTP) (P=0.003) were independent influencing factors for BCR after treatment. ROC analysis showed that the AUCs of all indicators in predicting BCR were not high (all <0.9). The combination of lymph node metastasis, Gleason score, pretreatment PSA, and treatment method can improve the predictive accuracy (AUC = 0.85), but the AUC was still under 0.9. The combined prediction model including CEUS time-intensity curve (TIC) indicators (PI and TTP) could accurately predict the BCR after treatment (AUC=0.953). The sensitivity and specificity were 93.02% and 88.24%, respectively.

Conclusion

The prediction model including TIC indicators and common influencing factors can more accurately predict the BCR in PCa patients.

External validation of Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center nomogram and prediction of optimal candidate for lymph node dissection in clinically localized prostate cancer

Introduction

The aim of our study was to evaluate the external validity of the online Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center (MSKCC) nomogram as a predictor for pelvic lymph node invasion (LNI) in men who underwent radical prostatectomy (RP) with pelvic lymph node dissection (PLND).

Material and methods

The study cohort consisted of 679 men with clinically localized prostate cancer (PCa) who underwent RP with PLND between 2005 and 2017. The area under curve (AUC) of the receiver operator characteristic analysis was used to quantify the accuracy of MSKCC nomogram to predict LNI. The specificity, sensitivity and negative predictive value were calculated to assess LNI probability cut-off.

Results

A total of 81 of 679 patients had LNI (11.9%). The AUC of MSKCC nomogram was 79%. Using the cut-off value of 7% (sensitivity 88.9%, specificity 45.2% and NPV 96.8%) a PLND could be omitted in 41% (279/679) of men. However, 3.2% (9/279) of men with LNI would be missed. MSKCC nomogram showed good calibration characteristics and high net benefit at decision curve analysis.

Conclusions

MSKCC nomogram in patients with PCa undergoing PLND has 79% discriminated accuracy for prediction of LNI in our cohort. Using a 7% nomogram cut-off, roughly 40% of men would be spared PLND with minimal risk to miss LNI.