Development and External Validation of a Nomogram to Predict Recurrence-Free Survival After R0 Resection for Stage II/III Gastric Cancer: An International Multicenter Study

Comparison of efficacy and safety of nab-paclitaxel and oxaliplatin + S-1 and standard S-1 and oxaliplatin chemotherapy regimens for treatment of gastric cancer

BACKGROUND

Gastric cancer (GC) is a relatively frequent clinical phenomenon, referring to malignant tumors emerging in the gastric mucosal epithelial cells. It has a high morbidity and mortality rate, posing a significant threat to the health of patients. Hence, how to diagnose and treat GC has become a heated topic in this research field.

AIM

To discuss the effectiveness and safety of nab-paclitaxel in combination with oxaliplatin and S-1 (P-SOX) for the treatment of GC, and to analyze the factors that may influence its outcomes.

METHODS

A total of 219 eligible patients with advanced GC, who were treated at Qinghai University Affiliated Hospital Gastrointestinal Oncology between January 2018 and March 2020, were included in the study. Among them, 149 patients received SOX regimen and 70 patients received S-1 regimen. All patients underwent both preoperative and postoperative chemotherapy consisting of 2-4 cycles each, totaling 6-8 cycles, along with parallel D2 radical surgical treatment. The patients were followed up for a period of three years or until reaching the event endpoint.

RESULTS

The short-term and long-term efficacy of the P-SOX group was significantly higher than that of the SOX group, and the safety was manageable. Cox multivariate analysis revealed that progression-free survival was associated with perioperative chemotherapy efficacy, tumor diameter ≤ 2cm, high differentiation, and early cTNM (T stands for invasion depth; N stands for node metastasis; M stands for distant invasion) stage.

CONCLUSION

In comparison to the SOX regimen, the P-SOX regimen demonstrates improved short-term and long-term efficacy with tolerable adverse reactions. It is anticipated that the P-SOX regimen will emerge as a first-line chemotherapy option for GC. Patients with GC who receive effective perioperative chemotherapy (Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumors 1.1, Tumor Regression Grade), have a tumor diameter ≤ 2cm, exhibit high degree of differentiation, and are at an early cTNM stage show better prognosis.

Development and validation of a preoperative radiomics-based nomogram to identify patients who can benefit from splenic hilar lymphadenectomy: a pooled analysis of three prospective trials

BACKGROUND

The authors aimed to use preoperative computed tomography images to develop a radiomic nomogram to select patients who would benefit from spleen-preserving splenic hilar (No.10) lymphadenectomy (SPSHL).

METHODS

A pooled analysis of three distinct prospective studies was performed. The splenic hilar lymph node (SHLN) ratio (sLNR) was established as the quotient of the number of metastatic SHLN to the total number of SHLN. Radiomic features reflecting the phenotypes of the primary tumor (RS1) and SHLN region (RS2) were extracted and used as predictive factors for sLNR.

RESULTS

This study included 733 patients: 301 in the D2 group and 432 in the D2+No.10 group. The optimal sLNR cutoff value was set at 0.4, and the D2+No.10 group was divided into three groups: sLNR=0, sLNR ≤0.4, and sLNR >0.4. Patients in the D2+No. 10 group were randomly divided into the training ( n =302) and validation ( n =130) cohorts. The AUCs value of the nomogram, including RS1 and RS2, were 0.952 in the training cohort and 0.888 in the validation cohort. The entire cohort was divided into three groups based on the nomogram scores: low, moderate, and high SHLN metastasis burden groups (LMB, MMB, and HMB, respectively). A similar 5-year OS rate was found between the D2 and D2+No. 10 groups in the LMB and HMB groups. In the MMB group, the 5-year OS of the D2+No. 10 group (73.4%) was significantly higher than that of the D2 group (37.6%) ( P <0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

The nomogram showed good predictive ability for distinguishing patients with various SHLN metastasis burdens. It can accurately identify patients who would benefit from SPSHL.

Nomogram to predict overall survival of patients receiving radical gastrectomy and incomplete peri-operative adjuvant chemotherapy for stage II/III gastric cancer: a retrospective bi-center cohort study

BACKGROUND

To establish a nomogram to predict the probability of survival of patients with stage II/III gastric cancer (GC) who received incomplete peri-operative adjuvant chemotherapy (PAC).

METHODS

The medical records of stage II/III GC patients who received curative resection and 1 to 5 cycles of PAC from two tertiary hospitals were retrospectively reviewed. Patients were randomly classified into either a training group or validation group at a ratio of 7:3. The nomogram was constructed based on various prognostic factors using Cox regression analysis in the training cohort, and was validated by the validation group. Concordance index and calibration curves were used to evaluate the discrimination and calibration of the nomogram. Additionally, decision curve analysis (DCA) was used to compare the net clinical benefits of the nomogram and eighth version of TNM staging system.

RESULTS

A total of 1,070 consecutive patients were included and 749 patients were enrolled into the training group. Lower body mass index (< 18.5 kg/m2), total gastrectomy, stage III disease and fewer cycles of PAC were identified to be independent predictors for poorer survival. The area under the curve (AUC) values of receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve predicting 5-year survival probabilities and C-index were 0.768 and 0.742, 0.700 (95%CI: 0.674-0.726) and 0.689 (95%CI: 0.646-0.732) in the training and validation groups, respectively. The calibration curves in the validation cohort showed good agreement between the prediction and observation of 1-, 3- and 5-year survival probabilities. Furthermore, DCA showed that our model has a better net benefit than that of TNM staging system.

CONCLUSIONS

The findings emphasize the value of completing PAC. The nomogram which was established to predict survival probability in patients with stage II/III GC receiving radical gastrectomy and incomplete PAC had good accuracy and was verified through both internal and external validation.

Development and validation of survival nomograms in elder triple-negative invasive ductal breast carcinoma patients

BACKGROUND

We aimed to develop a nomogram to predict the overall survival of elderly patients with Triple-negative invasive ductal breast carcinoma (TNIDC).

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

12165 elderly patients with nonmetastatic TNIDC were retrieved from the SEER database from 2010 to 2019 and were randomly assigned to training and validation cohorts. Stepwise Cox regression analysis was used to select variables for the nomogram based on the training cohort. Univariate and multivariate Cox analyses were used to calculate the correlation between variables and prognosis of the patients. Survival analysis was performed for high- and low-risk subgroups based on risk score.

RESULTS

Eleven predictive factors were identified to construct our nomograms. Compared with the TNM stage, the discrimination of the nomogram revealed good prognostic accuracy and clinical applicability as indicated by C-index values of 0.741 (95% CI 0.728-0.754) against 0.708 (95% CI 0.694-0.721) and 0.765 (95% CI 0.747-0.783) against 0.725 (95% CI 0.705-0.744) for the training and validation cohorts, respectively. Differences in OS were also observed between the high- and low-risk groups (p < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

The proposed nomogram provides a convenient and reliable tool for individual evaluations for elderly patients with M0_stage TNIDC. However, the model may only for Americans.

Clinical Significance of Fibrinogen and Platelet to Pre-Albumin Ratio in Predicting the Prognosis of Advanced Gastric Cancer

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study was to investigate the clinical significance of Fibrinogen and Platelet to Pre-albumin Ratio(FPAR) in predicting the prognosis of patients with advanced gastric cancer(AGC) and to construct a predictive model.

METHODS

We collected clinical data from 489 postoperative patients with AGC. FPAR was divided into high and low groups according to the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. The value of FPAR in predicting the prognosis of progressive gastric cancer was analysed using univariate and multivariable Cox regression analysis and its relationship with clinicopathological features. Finally, the Overall Survival(OS) and recurrence-free survival(RFS) prediction models were constructed and validated using FPAR.

RESULTS

Univariate and multifactorial cox regression analysis showed that grade (P<0.001), TNM-stage (P<0.001), chemotherapy (P<0.001), and FPAR (OR=3.054,95% CI:2.088-4.467, P<0.001) were independent risk factors for OS; grade (P=0.021), N-stage (P=0.024), TNM-stage (P=0.033), and FPAR (OR=2.215,95% CI:1.634-3.003, P<0.001) were independent risk factors for RFS. Subgroup analysis showed that the FPAR-low group had higher OS and RFS than the FPAR-high group, regardless of the patient's TNM stage (p<0.05). However, OS was instead higher in the the stage III-FPAR-low group than in the the stage II-FPAR-high group (p<0.05), while RFS was not significantly different. Predictive models incorporating FPAR had better predictive performance than those without FPAR, showing wide range of net benefit and AUC. After correction, the 2-year AUC, 3-year AUC and C-index of the OS model were 0.737, 0.756, and 0.746; the 2-year AUC, 3-year AUC, and C-index of the RFS model were 0.738, 0.758, and 0.711.

CONCLUSION

FPAR levels were associated with prognosis in patients with AGC and could independently predict RFS and OS.

Establishment of a novel survival assessment and prediction model for advanced gastric cancer patients receiving immunotherapy

Currently, there are only a few risk assessment tools that provide predictions of survival duration for patients with gastric cancer (GC) receiving immunotherapy. The purpose of the present study was to develop and validate a nomogram that uses statistical data to predict survival and make risk assessments for patients with advanced staged GC. A total of 1,013 patients consisting of a development cohort (n=501) and validation cohort (n=512) collected during the time interval between January 2018 and June 2022 were included in the present study. The analysis consisted of the discrimination index, calibration plots and decision curve of the nomogram model. A total of 167 (33.33%) patients from the development cohort, and 158 (30.85%) from the validation cohort died during the observation period. The median overall survival (OS) of female patients was higher at 980 days (95% CI, 613-NA) compared with that of male patients, which was 748 days (95% CI, 597-NA; P=0.24). The median survival of patients with domestic immunotherapy was 789 (95% CI, 597-NA) days, which was lower compared with the imported immunotherapy group who had a median OS of 980 days (95% CI, 582-NA; P=0.22). A total of four independent predictors, age (HR=1.012; P=0.0245), histological grade (HR=1.395; P=0.016), immunotherapy cycles (HR=0.932; P=0.028) and line of first immunotherapy (HR=1.693; P=0.0003), were identified. The C-index was 0.64 and 0.67 for the development and validation cohorts, respectively. Patients who received more cycles of immunotherapy as the first-line treatment with highly differentiated tumor led to increase in the survival time of the patients. Thus, this nomogram could be used to determine the benefit of immunotherapies on patients at various stages of treatment of GC.

Value of the Preoperative D-Dimer to Albumin Ratio for Survival and Recurrence Patterns in Gastric Cancer

BACKGROUND

D-dimer (DDI) and albumin are prognostic markers for numerous cancers; however, the predictive value of the preoperative DDI-to-albumin ratio (DAR) on the survival and recurrence patterns of gastric cancer (GC) remains unclear.

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study was to explore the prognostic value of the DAR in GC.

METHODS

Our study included 1766 patients with GC, divided into training and testing cohorts at a ratio of 7:3. Patients were classified into either a high-DAR group (> 0.0145) or low-DAR group (≤ 0.0145) according to the cut-off value of receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis. The relationship between the DAR and recurrence pattern was analyzed in stage II/III patients.

RESULTS

Eight preoperative hematological factors were included and 17 composite inflammatory markers were constructed. ROC and random forest analyses indicated that among 17 markers, DAR was the best predictor for overall survival (OS) in GC (p < 0.01). High DAR was significantly associated with poor OS (hazard ratio [HR] 1.89, p < 0.001) and recurrence-free survival (RFS; HR 1.85, p < 0.001). Subgroup analysis showed no differences in OS and RFS between the high- and low-DAR groups in stage I or pT1/2 or pN0/1 patients; however, in stage II/III or pT3/4 or pN2/3 patients, the high-DAR group had shorter OS and RFS rates than the low-DAR group (p < 0.001). Similar results were found in the testing cohort. According to the multivariate analysis based on the training cohort, five indices, including DAR, cT stage, cN stage, age and body mass index (BMI), were incorporated to establish a nomogram model to predict the long-term prognosis of GC. The model showed comparable forecast performance in predicting OS (C-index: 0.773 vs. 0.786) and RFS (C-index: 0.788 vs. 0.795) compared with pTNM. Recurrence pattern analysis in stage II/III patients showed that the high-DAR group had a higher incidence of peritoneal implantation and early recurrence (ER) than the low-DAR group, and the post-recurrence survival in the high-DAR group was significantly shorter than that in the low-DAR group (p = 0.016).

CONCLUSION

The preoperative DAR is a new biomarker for the long-term survival prediction of GC. In advanced GC, a preoperative DAR > 0.0145 aids the timely detection of ER and peritoneal recurrence after surgery, thus guiding individual follow-up strategies.

Development and validation of novel nomograms to predict survival of patients with tongue squamous cell carcinoma

BACKGROUND

There is no unified standard to predict postoperative survival in patients with tongue squamous cell carcinoma (TSCC), hence the urgency to develop a model to accurately predict the prognosis of these patients.

AIM

To develop and validate nomograms for predicting overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) of patients with TSCC.

METHODS

A cohort of 3454 patients with TSCC from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database was used to develop nomograms; another independent cohort of 203 patients with TSCC from the Department of Oral and Maxillofacial Surgery, First Affiliated Hospital of Zhejiang University School of Medicine, was used for external validation. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to identify useful variables for the development of nomograms. The calibration curve, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) analysis, concordance index (C-index), net reclassification index (NRI), and decision curve analysis (DCA) were used to assess the calibration, discrimination ability, and clinical utility of the nomograms.

RESULTS

Eight variables were selected and used to develop nomograms for patients with TSCC. The C-index (0.741 and 0.757 for OS and CSS in the training cohort and 0.800 and 0.830 in the validation cohort, respectively) and AUC indicated that the discrimination abilities of these nomograms were acceptable. The calibration curves of OS and CSS indicated that the predicted and actual values were consistent in both the training and validation cohorts. The NRI values (training cohort: 0.493 and 0.482 for 3- and 5-year OS and 0.424 and 0.402 for 3- and 5-year CSS; validation cohort: 0.635 and 0.750 for 3- and 5-year OS and 0.354 and 0.608 for 3- and 5-year CSS, respectively) and DCA results indicated that the nomograms were significantly better than the tumor-node-metastasis staging system in predicting the prognosis of patients with TSCC.

CONCLUSION

Our nomograms can accurately predict patient prognoses and assist clinicians in improving decision-making concerning patients with TSCC in clinical practice.

Development of web-based dynamic nomogram to predict survival in patients with gastric cancer: a population-based study

Gastric cancer (GC) is the fifth most frequent malignancy worldwide and the third leading cause of cancer-associated mortality. The study's goal was to construct a predictive model and nomograms to predict the survival of GC patients. This historical cohort study assessed 733 patients who underwent treatments for GC. The univariate and multivariable Cox proportional hazard (CPH) survival analyses were applied to identify the factors related to overall survival (OS). A dynamic nomogram was developed as a graphical representation of the CPH regression model. The internal validation of the nomogram was evaluated by Harrell's concordance index (C-index) and time-dependent AUC. The results of the multivariable Cox model revealed that the age of patients, body mass index (BMI), grade of tumor, and depth of tumor elevate the mortality hazard of gastric cancer patients (P < 0.05). The built nomogram had a discriminatory performance, with a C-index of 0.64 (CI 0.61, 0.67). We constructed and validated an original predictive nomogram for OS in patients with GC. Furthermore, nomograms may help predict the individual risk of OS in patients treated for GC.

Prognostic Value of Tumor Regression Grading in Patients Treated With Neoadjuvant Chemotherapy Plus Surgery for Gastric Cancer

OBJECTIVE

To validate the prognostic value of tumor regression grading (TRG) and to explore the associated factors of TRG for advanced gastric cancer (AGC) with neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NACT) plus surgery.

METHODS

Two hundred forty-nine AGC patients treated with NACT followed by gastrectomy at the Mayo Clinic, USA and the Fujian Medical University Union Hospital, China between January 2000 and December 2016 were enrolled in this study. Cox regression was used to identify covariates associated with overall survival (OS) and recurrence-free survival (RFS). Logistic regression was used to reveal factors predicting tumor regression grading.

RESULTS

For patients with TRG 0-1, the 3- and 5-year OS rates were 85.2% and 74.5%, respectively, when compared to 56.1% and 44.1% in patients with TRG 2 and 28.2% and 23.0% in patients with TRG 3, respectively (p<0.001). TRGs were independent risk factors for OS. Similar findings were observed in RFS. Multivariable analysis revealed that an oxaliplatin-based regimen (p=0.017) was an independent predictor of TRG. The oxaliplatin-based regimen was superior to the nonoxaliplatin-based regimen for OS (38.4 months vs 19.5 months, respectively; p=0.01). Subgroup analyses by histological subtype indicated that the oxaliplatin-based regimen improved the OS in nonsignet ring cell carcinoma compared to the nonoxaliplatin-based regimen (53.7 months vs 19.5 months, respectively; p=0.011). However, similar findings were not observed in RFS.

CONCLUSION

TRG was an independent factor of AGC treated with neoadjuvant chemotherapy plus surgery. Oxaliplatin-based neoadjuvant chemotherapy regimens improve tumor response and may have an overall survival benefit for patients with nonsignet ring cell carcinoma.