Prediction of Survival and Analysis of Prognostic Factors for Patients With Combined Hepatocellular Carcinoma and Cholangiocarcinoma: A Population-Based Study

Patient Outcomes in Resected Combined Hepatocellular Cholangiocarcinoma (cHCC-ICC) and Intrahepatic Cholangiocarcinoma: A Single Center Study

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES

Combined hepatocellular cholangiocarcinoma (cHCC-ICC) is a rare malignancy that involves a combination of features of hepatocellular carcinoma and intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC) and exhibits a more aggressive clinical course; however, its risk factors and outcomes remain largely undefined.

METHODS

This study is a single-center retrospective study of 82 patients diagnosed with ICC or cHCC-ICC who underwent surgical resection from June 2011 to January 2023. Our analysis included 70 patients with resected ICC and 12 with resected cHCC-ICC.

RESULTS

The overall survival (OS) for the entire cohort was 21.6 months, with a recurrence-free survival (RFS) of 11.8 months. The cHCC-ICC group had significantly higher levels of AST and ALT (AST median 206 U/L vs. 46 U/L; ALT median 165.5 U/L vs. 48 U/L; p = 0.012 and p = 0.013, respectively), whereas the ICC group had higher alkaline phosphatase (median 66 U/L vs. 104 U/L; p = 0.03). CA 19-9 values (76 U/mL vs. 22 U/mL; p = 0.02) were higher in the ICC group, while AFP values were higher in the cHCC-ICC group (7.3 ng/mL vs. 3.2 ng/mL; p = 0.0004). The cHCC-ICC group had a significantly higher rate of recurrence (83% vs. 47%, p = 0.028) with a significantly decreased RFS (4.7 months vs. 12.4 months; log-rank p = 0.007). In multivariate analysis, patients with resected ICC had a significantly reduced risk of recurrence by 73% compared to their counterparts (HR 0.27 [0.10-0.73], p = 0.01).

CONCLUSIONS

cHCC-ICC is a rare entity that needs to be further studied to improve patient outcomes. Further studies are warranted and may suggest the need for more aggressive initial treatment strategies in patients diagnosed with cHCC-ICC.

A predictive nomogram for surgical site infection in patients who received clean orthopedic surgery: a retrospective study

BACKGROUND

Surgical site infection (SSI) is a common and serious complication of elective clean orthopedic surgery that can lead to severe adverse outcomes. However, the prognostic efficacy of the current staging systems remains uncertain for patients undergoing elective aseptic orthopedic procedures. This study aimed to identify high-risk factors independently associated with SSI and develop a nomogram prediction model to accurately predict the occurrence of SSI.

METHODS

A total of 20,960 patients underwent elective clean orthopedic surgery in our hospital between January 2020 and December 2021, of whom 39 developed SSI; we selected all 39 patients with a postoperative diagnosis of SSI and 305 patients who did not develop postoperative SSI for the final analysis. The patients were randomly divided into training and validation cohorts in a 7:3 ratio. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were conducted in the training cohort to screen for independent risk factors of SSI, and a nomogram prediction model was developed. The predictive performance of the nomogram was compared with that of the National Nosocomial Infections Surveillance (NNIS) system. Decision curve analysis (DCA) was used to assess the clinical decision-making value of the nomogram.

RESULTS

The SSI incidence was 0.186%. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis identified the American Society of Anesthesiology (ASA) class (odds ratio [OR] 1.564 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.029-5.99, P = 0.046]), operative time (OR 1.003 [95% CI 1.006-1.019, P < 0.001]), and D-dimer level (OR 1.055 [95% CI 1.022-1.29, P = 0.046]) as risk factors for postoperative SSI. We constructed a nomogram prediction model based on these independent risk factors. In the training and validation cohorts, our predictive model had concordance indices (C-indices) of 0.777 (95% CI 0.672-0.882) and 0.732 (95% CI 0.603-0.861), respectively, both of which were superior to the C-indices of the NNIS system (0.668 and 0.543, respectively). Calibration curves and DCA confirmed that our nomogram model had good consistency and clinical predictive value, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Operative time, ASA class, and D-dimer levels are important clinical predictive indicators of postoperative SSI in patients undergoing elective clean orthopedic surgery. The nomogram predictive model based on the three clinical features demonstrated strong predictive performance, calibration capabilities, and clinical decision-making abilities for SSI.

Construction of novel predictive tools for post-surgical cancer-specific survival probability in patients with primary chondrosarcoma and external validation in Chinese cohorts: a large population-based retrospective study

BACKGROUND

Surgery is the predominant treatment modality for chondrosarcoma. This study aims to construct a novel clinic predictive tool that accurately predicts the 3-, 5-, and 8-year probability of cancer-specific survival (CSS) for primary chondrosarcoma patients who have undergone surgical treatment.

METHODS

The Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database was used to identify 982 primary chondrosarcoma patients after surgery, who were randomly divided into two sets: training set (60%) and internal validation set (40%). Cox proportional regression analyses were used to screen post-surgical independent prognostic variables in primary chondrosarcoma patients. These identified variables were used to construct a nomogram to predict the probability of post-surgical CSS of primary chondrosarcoma patients. The k-fold cross-validation method (k = 10), Harrell's concordance index (C-index), receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) and area under curve (AUC) were used to assess the predictive accuracy of the nomogram. Calibration curve and decision curve analysis (DCA) were used to validate the clinical application of the nomogram.

RESULTS

Age, tumor size, disease stage and histological type were finally identified post-surgical independent prognostic variables. Based the above variables, a nomogram was constructed to predict the 3-, 5- and 8-year probability of post-surgical CSS in primary chondrosarcoma patients. The results of the C-index showed excellent predictive performance of the nomogram (training set: 0.837, 95% CI: 0.766-0.908; internal validation set: 0.835, 95% CI: 0.733-0.937; external validation set: 0.869, 95% CI: 0.740-0.998). The AUCs of ROC were all greater than 0.830 which again indicated that the nomogram had excellent predictive performance. The results of calibration curve and DCA indicated that the clinical applicability of this nomogram was outstanding. Finally, the risk classification system and online access version of the nomogram was developed.

CONCLUSION

We constructed the first nomogram to accurately predict the 3-, 5- and 8-year probability of post-surgical CSS in primary chondrosarcoma patients. This nomogram would assist surgeons to provide individualized post-surgical survival predictions and clinical strategies for primary chondrosarcoma patients.

Clinical outcomes of immune checkpoint inhibitors in unresectable or metastatic combined hepatocellular-cholangiocarcinoma

PURPOSE

Immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) have been demonstrated to be effective for unresectable or metastatic hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) or cholangiocarcinoma (CCA) in prior prospective trials. However, the clinical outcomes of ICIs in patients with combined HCC-CCA (cHCC-CCA) have not been investigated. Accordingly, we retrospectively evaluated the effectiveness and safety of ICIs in patients with unresectable or metastatic cHCC-CCA.

METHODS

Among 101 patients with histologically documented cHCC-CCA who received systemic therapy, 25 received ICIs between January 2015 and September 2021 and were included in the current analysis. Overall response rate (ORR) per Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumors (RECIST) version 1.1, progression-free survival (PFS), overall survival (OS), and adverse events (AEs) were retrospectively evaluated.

RESULTS

The median age was 64 years (range 38-83) and 84% (n = 21) of patients were males. Most patients had Child-Pugh A liver function (n = 22, 88%) and hepatitis B virus infection (17, 68%). Nivolumab (n = 17, 68%) was the most frequently used ICI, followed by pembrolizumab (n = 5, 20%), atezolizumab plus bevacizumab (n = 2, 8%), and ipilimumab plus nivolumab (n = 1, 4%). All patients, except one, had previously received systemic therapy; median two lines (1-5 lines) of systemic therapy were administered prior to ICIs. With a median follow-up duration of 20.1 months (95% CI 4.9-35.2 months), the median PFS was 3.5 months (95% CI 2.4-4.8 months), and the median OS was 8.3 months (95% CI 6.8-9.8 months). The ORR was 20.0% (n = 5, nivolumab for 2 patients, pembrolizumab for 1, atezolizumab plus bevacizumab for 1, and ipilimumab plus nivolumab for 1) and the duration of response was 11.6 months (95% CI 11.2-12.0 months).

CONCLUSIONS

ICIs displayed clinical anti-cancer effectiveness, aligning with the results of prior prospective studies for HCC or CCA. Further international studies are required to define the optimal strategies for managing unresectable or metastatic cHCC-CCA.

Development and validation of a nomogram to predict cancer-specific survival with unresected cholangiocarcinoma undergoing external radiotherapy

Objective

To analyze the prognostic factors of patients with cholangiocarcinoma (CCA) who were unresected and received radiotherapy to establish a nomogram model for the prediction of patient cancer-specific survival (CSS).

Methods

Suitable patient cases were selected from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database, survival rates were calculated using the Kaplan-Meier method, prognostic factors were analyzed by Lasso, Cox regression, and nomogram was developed based on independent prognostic factors to predict 6 and 12 months CSS. The consistency index (C-index), calibration curve, and decision curve analysis (DCA) were tested for the predictive efficacy of the model, respectively.

Results

The primary site, tumor size, T-stage, M-stage, and chemotherapy (P < 0.05) were identified as independent risk factors after Cox and Lasso regression analysis. Patients in training cohort had a 6 months CSS rates was 68.6 ± 2.6%, a 12-month CSS rates was 49.0 ± 2.8%. The median CSS time of 12.00 months (95% CI: 10.17-13.83 months). The C-index was 0.664 ± 0.039 for the training cohort and 0.645 ± 0.042 for the validation cohort. The nomogram predicted CSS and demonstrated satisfactory and consistent predictive performance in 6 (73.4 vs. 64.9%) and 12 months (72.2 vs. 64.9%), respectively. The external validation calibration plot is shown AUC for 6- and 12-month compared with AJCC stage was (71.2 vs. 63.0%) and (65.9 vs. 59.8%). Meanwhile, the calibration plot of the nomogram for the probability of CSS at 6 and 12 months indicates that the actual and nomogram predict that the CSS remains largely consistent. DCA showed that using a nomogram to predict CSS results in better clinical decisions compared to the AJCC staging system.

Conclusion

A nomogram model based on clinical prognostic characteristics can be used to provide CSS prediction reference for patients with CCA who have not undergone surgery but have received radiotherapy.

Combined Hepatocellular-Cholangiocarcinoma: What the Multidisciplinary Team Should Know

Combined hepatocellular-cholangiocarcinoma (cHCC-CCA) is a rare type of primary liver malignancy. Among the risk factors, hepatitis B and hepatitis C virus infections, cirrhosis, and male gender are widely reported. The clinical appearance of cHCC-CCA is similar to that of HCC and iCCA and it is usually silent until advanced states, causing a delay of diagnosis. Diagnosis is mainly based on histology from biopsies or surgical specimens. Correct pre-surgical diagnosis during imaging studies is very problematic and is due to the heterogeneous characteristics of the lesion in imaging, with overlapping features of HCC and CCA. The predominant histological subtype within the lesion establishes the predominant imaging findings. Therefore, in this scenario, the radiological findings characteristic of HCC show an overlap with those of CCA. Since cHCC-CCAs are prevalent in patients at high risk of HCC and there is a risk that these may mimic HCC, it is currently difficult to see a non-invasive diagnosis of HCC. Surgery is the only curative treatment of HCC-CCA. The role of liver transplantation (LT) in the treatment of cHCC-CCA remains controversial, as is the role of ablative or systemic therapies in the treatment of this tumour. These lesions still remain challenging, both in diagnosis and in the treatment phase. Therefore, a pre-treatment imaging diagnosis is essential, as well as the identification of prognostic factors that could stratify the risk of recurrence and the most adequate therapy according to patient characteristics.