Factors Predicting Oncological Outcomes of Radical Nephroureterectomy for Upper Tract Urothelial Carcinoma in Taiwan

Development and validation of a prediction model for early recurrence in upper tract urothelial carcinoma treated with radical nephroureterectomy

BACKGROUND

Most cases of upper tract urothelial carcinoma (UTUC) exhibit recurrence within the first year following surgery. The time from surgery to recurrence significantly impacts cancer-specific survival. In this study, we analyzed patients with localized UTUC (pTis-3N0/xcM0) who experienced postoperative recurrence to identify an appropriate early recurrence time point and the associated risk factors.

METHODS

From July 1988 to October 2022, we retrospectively analyzed 3435 localized UTUC patients after undergoing radical nephroureterectomy using Taiwan's UTUC Collaboration Group Database. Early recurrence time point was defined according to oncologic outcome. Variables including clinical and pathological characteristics were assessed in relation to early recurrence. A prediction model was constructed by factors associated with early recurrence and externally validated.

RESULTS

Early recurrence time point in localized UTUC was determined at 9 months post-surgery, with patients experiencing early recurrence exhibiting worse overall and cancer specific survival. Diabetes mellitus, multifocality, lympho-vascular invasion, tumor necrosis and pathologic T stage were independent factors associated with early recurrence. The predictive model for early recurrence achieved an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.84 (95%CI: 0.82-0.86). External validation demonstrated that the model exhibited good discrimination (AUC: 0.76, 95%CI: 0.73-0.79), calibration (Brier score: 0.08) and clinical utility in a distinct cohort.

CONCLUSIONS

This study identified the optimal time point for early recurrence and its associated risk factors. A prediction model for early recurrence was developed based on these factors and validated externally, demonstrating good generalizability. This clinical tool can facilitate early identification of high-risk patients, enabling targeted surveillance and timely intervention. Future studies should explore effective treatment strategies for preventing early recurrence.

Prediction of post‑nephroureterectomy renal function in non‑dialysis upper tract urothelial carcinoma using machine learning with PyCaret and SHAP explanations

Renal function after radical nephroureterectomy (RNU) in patients with advanced upper tract urothelial carcinoma (UTUC) is an indicator of eligibility for postoperative chemotherapy. The present study aimed to utilize machine learning for predicting renal function status after RNU and to investigate the contribution of several features to this prediction. The present retrospective study included 764 medical records of patients with non-metastatic UTUC who received RNU from 2008 to 2022. The records were divided into training (n=534) and testing (n=230) datasets. Several demographic and clinicopathological parameters were collected for analysis. PyCaret was utilized for data processing, model establishment and comparison, while SHapley Additive exPlanations values were adopted to assess the contribution of each variable to the predictive performance of the model. The results demonstrated that the Random Forest Regressor model had improved accuracy in predicting postoperative renal function compared with other algorithms. In both the estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and chronic kidney disease outcome, preoperative renal function had the most marked contribution to postoperative renal function. Additionally, the Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI), body mass index (BMI) and tumor size were highly associated with renal function after RNU, and hydronephrosis was another main factor for predicting postoperative eGFR. The retrospective design was a limitation of the present study. The results demonstrated that important predictors, including preoperative eGFR, tumor size, BMI, CCI and hydronephrosis, were associated with postoperative renal function. To conclude, using a machine learning prediction model may be used in the future to determine appropriate therapeutic strategies and inform the timing of perioperative systemic chemotherapy, in particular perioperative systemic chemotherapy, for advanced UTUC.

Improving Risk Stratification in pT3 Upper Tract Urothelial Carcinoma: A Focus on Invasion Patterns

Purpose: Existing T3 subclassifications for upper tract urothelial cancer (UTUC) are limited by heterogeneity and a primary focus on renal pelvis tumors. Our study aimed to propose a novel pT3 subclassification system specifically tailored to pT3 UTUC patients. Materials and Methods: This study analyzed 120 pT3 UTUC cases from a Taiwanese multicenter registry, using a standardized pathology report and a single pathologist for evaluation. Results: Univariate analysis revealed survival differences based on existing subclassifications. Multivariate analysis identified concurrent fat and parenchyma invasion as an independent predictor of worse overall survival (OS), cancer-specific survival (CSS), and disease-free survival (DFS). Conclusions: This study proposes a novel pT3 subclassification incorporating fat and parenchyma invasion, applicable to all UTUC sites. This subclassification may improve risk stratification, guide treatment decisions, and ultimately enhance patient outcomes.

Differential effect of surgical technique on intravesical recurrence after radical nephroureterectomy in patients with upper tract urothelial cancer: a systematic review and Meta-analysis

CONTEXT

Radical nephroureterectomy (RNU) with bladder cuff resection is the standard treatment in patients with high-risk upper tract urothelial cancer (UTUC). However, it is unclear which specific surgical technique may lead to improve oncological outcomes in term of intravesical recurrence (IVR) in patients with UTUC.

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the efficacy of surgical techniques and approaches of RNU in reducing IVR in UTUC patients.

EVIDENCE ACQUISITION

Three databases were queried in January 2024 for studies analyzing UTUC patients who underwent RNU. The primary outcome of interest was the rate of IVR among various types of surgical techniques and approaches of RNU.

EVIDENCE SYNTHESIS

Thirty-one studies, comprising 1 randomized controlled trial and 1 prospective study, were included for a systematic review and meta-analysis. The rate of IVR was significantly lower in RNU patients who had an early ligation (EL) of the ureter compared to those who did not (HR: 0.64, 95% CI: 0.44-0.94, p = 0.02). Laparoscopic RNU significantly increased the IVR compared to open RNU (HR: 1.28, 95% CI: 1.06-1.54, p < 0.001). Intravesical bladder cuff removal significantly reduced the IVR compared to both extravesical and transurethral bladder cuff removal (HR: 0.65, 95% CI: 0.51-0.83, p = 0.02 and HR: 1.64, 95% CI: 1.15-2.34, p = 0.006, respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

EL of the affected upper tract system, ureteral management, open RNU, and intravesical bladder cuff removal seem to yield the lowest IVR rate in patients with UTUC. Well-designed prospective studies are needed to conclusively elucidate the optimal surgical technique in the setting of single post-operative intravesical chemotherapy.

Prognostic model using postoperative normalization of C-reactive protein levels in patients with upper tract urothelial carcinoma treated with radical nephroureterectomy

INTRODUCTION

To improve the prediction of outcomes in patients who will undergo radical nephroureterectomy (RN U) for upper tract urothelial carcinoma (UTUC), we investigated the preoperative prognostic factors and developed a risk classification model.

METHODS

A total of 144 patients who underwent RNU with history of neither neoadjuvant nor adjuvant chemotherapy between 2008 and 2022 were retrospectively reviewed. Associations between perioperative/clinicopathologic factors and outcomes, including cancer-specific survival (CSS), were assessed. We specifically focused on preoperative serum C-reactive protein (CRP) and its postoperative normalization.

RESULTS

Non-normalization of postoperative serum CRP level and pathologic T3 stage were identified as independent predictive factors of shorter CSS in univariate and multivariate analysis (p=0.0150 and 0.0037, hazard ratio: 3.628 and 4.470, respectively). We classified the patients into three groups using these factors and found that five-year CSS was 88%, 42.5%, and 0% in the low-risk group (zero factors), intermediate-risk group (one factor), and high-risk group (two factors), respectively (p<0.0001).

CONCLUSIONS

Non-normalization of postoperative serum CRP level and pathologic T stage were identified as independent postoperative prognostic factors in patients with UTUC who underwent RNU. These factors can stratify three prognostic groups and may help urologists in clinical decision-making for adjuvant therapy.

Advanced Age May Not Be an Absolute Contraindication for Radical Nephroureterectomy in Patients with Upper Tract Urothelial Carcinoma: A Single-Center Case Series and a Systematic Review with Meta-Analyses

OBJECTIVE

This study aims to investigate whether advanced age is an absolute contraindication for radical nephroureterectomy (RNU) in patients with upper tract urothelial carcinoma (UTUC) through a single-center case series and a systematic review with meta-analysis.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

In the single-center case series, 588 UTUC patients who underwent RNU between May 2003 and June 2019 in West China Hospital were enrolled, and cancer-specific survival (CSS) was the primary outcome of interest. In the systematic review with meta-analysis, PubMed, Scopus, Embase, and Cochrane databases were systematically searched for related articles for further analysis. The endpoints for meta-analyses were overall survival (OS) and CSS.

RESULTS

The single-center case series included 57 (9.7%) octogenarians. The CSS of octogenarians after RNU was comparable to that of younger people. Advanced age (≥80) was not an independent risk factor for poor CSS (HR, 1.08; 95% CI, 0.48, 2.40). In a systematic review with meta-analysis, the cut-off value of advanced age is 70, and the results showed that advanced age was associated with inferior OS (pooled HR, 1.55; 95% CI, 1.29, 2.01) and CSS (pooled HR, 1.37; 95% CI, 1.08, 1.65). However, the subgroup analysis of countries found no positive correlation between advanced age and CSS (pooled HR, 1.33; 95% CI 0.92, 1.74) in Chinese.

CONCLUSIONS

Advanced age may no longer be an absolute contraindication for RNU. RNU can be safely and effectively performed on UTUC patients of advanced age after a comprehensive presurgical evaluation.

The utility of clinical registries for guiding clinical practice in upper tract urothelial cancer: a narrative review

Background and Objective

Upper tract urothelial cancer (UTUC) lacks high-quality evidence to appraise current patterns of presentation, diagnosis, treatment and outcomes as a result of disease rarity and patient heterogeneity. Registries may overcome many of the challenges making clinical trials challenging in UTUC and provide answers to many of the clinical questions that afflict UTUC management. In this narrative review we aim to summarise the design of registries that have contributed to the UTUC literature, discuss their strengths and limitations and the future directions of registries in UTUC.

Methods

Two independent reviewers conducted a search of the OVID MEDLINE database from July 2002-July 2022. Included articles were required to be published in peer reviewed journals and use registry-based methodology to report on UTUC. Search was limited by MeSH and key words and was limited to the English language.

Key Content and Findings

One hundred and forty-four articles were identified and included as reporting on UTUC from a registry-based methodology. Articles utilising registry-based data have substantially increased over the study period with the majority of articles arising from large generalised cancer databases in North America. There has been an increase in UTUC-specific registries in the previous five years that have offered the most granular, complete analysis and these will continue to report in the coming years. The majority of published data assessed epidemiological factors and compared outcomes of treatment modalities with a small proportion of articles focusing on prognostic nomograms and quality of life. Larger cancer registries that contribute the majority of the published analysis are likely subject to significant selection bias when comparing cohorts for treatment analysis and the need for prospective UTUC specific registries is apparent. Future directions include the potential for registry-based randomised controlled trials (RCTs) and clinical quality registries (CQR) that have the ability to change practice and improve care.

Conclusions

The utilisation of registry-based methodology for analysis in UTUC has increased substantially over the last 20 years. In addition to the utilisation of large cancer registries, the creation of UTUC specific registries is likely to contribute the most granular, translatable data in diagnosis and management.

Preoperative hydronephrosis is an independent protective factor of renal function decline after nephroureterectomy for upper tract urothelial carcinoma

Objectives

To evaluate the predictive role of pre-nephroureterectomy (NU) hydronephrosis on post-NU renal function (RF) change and preserved eligibility rate for adjuvant therapy in patients with upper tract urothelial carcinoma (UTUC).

Patients and methods

This retrospective study collected data of 1018 patients from the Taiwan UTUC Collaboration Group registry of 26 institutions. The patients were divided into two groups based on the absence or presence of pre-NU hydronephrosis. Estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) was calculated pre- and post-NU respectively. The one month post-NU RF change, chronic kidney disease (CKD) progression, and the preserved eligibility rate for adjuvant therapy were compared for each CKD stage.

Results

404 (39.2%) patients without and 614 (60.8%) patients with pre-NU hydronephrosis were enrolled. The median post-NU change in the eGFR was significantly lower in the hydronephrosis group (-3.84 versus -12.88, p<0.001). Pre-NU hydronephrosis was associated with a lower post-NU CKD progression rate (33.1% versus 50.7%, p< 0.001) and was an independent protective factor for RF decline after covariate adjustment (OR=0.46, p<0.001). Patients with pre-NU hydronephrosis had a higher preserved eligibility rate for either adjuvant cisplatin-based chemotherapy (OR=3.09, 95%CI 1.95-4.69) or immune-oncology therapy (OR=2.31, 95%CI 1.23-4.34).

Conclusion

Pre-NU hydronephrosis is an independent protective predictor for post-NU RF decline, CKD progression, and eligibility for adjuvant therapy. With cautious selection for those unfavorably prognostic, non-metastatic UTUC patients with preoperative hydronephrosis, adjuvant rather than neoadjuvant therapy could be considered due to higher chance of preserving eligibility.

The efficacy and safety of first-line treatment in cisplatin-ineligible advanced upper tract urothelial carcinoma patients: a comparison of PD-1 inhibitor and carboplatin plus gemcitabine chemotherapy

Although several programmed cell death (PD)-1 inhibitors are approved for the first-line treatment of advanced urothelial carcinoma, their efficacy remains unknown in cisplatin-ineligible patients with upper tract urothelial carcinoma (UTUC) compared with gemcitabine plus carboplatin. Data for patients with UTUC were retrospectively retrieved from the electronic medical records of nine institutions between 2018 and 2021. Patients considered ineligible for cisplatin who received either PD-1 inhibitors (n = 70) or gemcitabine plus carboplatin (n = 53) were included. Efficacy was assessed using Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumors. Median progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) were estimated using the Kaplan–Meier method. The objective response rate (ORR) was comparable between the PD-1 inhibitor and carboplatin–gemcitabine groups (38.6% versus 41.5%). Median PFS was 5.0 months (95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.0–8.0) in the PD-1 inhibitor group, versus 7.0 months (95% CI: 5.8–8.2) in the carboplatin–gemcitabine group (hazard ratio [HR] = 0.741, 95% CI: 0.485–1.132, p = .166). Median OS was 18 months (95% CI: 4.1–31.9) in the PD-1 inhibitor group, compared with 14 months (95% CI: 12.1–15.9) in the carboplatin–gemcitabine group (HR = 0.731, 95% CI: 0.426–1.256, p = .257). The duration of response was significantly longer in the PD-1 inhibitor group than in the carboplatin–gemcitabine group (not reached vs. 9 months, p < .001). Treatment-related adverse events were less frequent in the PD-1 inhibitor group than in the carboplatin–gemcitabine group (57.1% vs. 77.3%). In conclusion, PD-1 inhibitors displayed promising efficacy with less toxicity and longer DOR in the first-line treatment of UTUC in patients ineligible for cisplatin-based chemotherapy.

Decreased Preoperative Serum AGR as a Diagnostic Marker of Poor Prognosis after Radical Surgery of Upper Urinary Tract and Bladder Cancers from a Pooled Analysis of 9,002 Patients

A growing number of studies have regarded the preoperative serum albumin-to-globulin ratio (AGR) as a prognostic indicator of urothelial carcinoma (UC) following radical surgery. However, a pooled analysis of AGR's effect on UC prognosis was still insufficient. Up to January 2022, a systematic search was conducted using PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, and Cochrane Library. Stata SE software was applied in this study. The reviewers collected the hazard ratio (HR) with 95% confidence interval (CI) for overall survival (OS), cancer-specific survival (CSS), recurrence-free survival (RFS), progression-free survival (PFS), and metastasis-free survival (MFS). A total of 9,002 patients from 12 retrospective studies were included in this analysis. The results showed that preoperative serum AGR was significantly associated with the OS (HR = 1.85, 95%CI = 1.43 to 2.39), CSS (HR = 2.38, 95%CI = 1.69 to 3.34), RFS (HR = 1.64, 95%CI = 1.29 to 2.08), PFS (HR = 2.16, 95%CI = 1.43 to 3.27), and MFS (HR = 3.00, 95%CI = 1.63 to 5.53) of patients with UC following radical surgery. Sensitivity analysis indicated the stability of the results. Subgroup analysis revealed that preoperative low AGR was seen as a risk factor for OS (HR = 1.90, 95%CI = 1.34 to 2.69), CSS (HR = 2.13, 95%CI = 1.40 to 3.26), and RFS (HR = 1.60, 95%CI = 1.24 to 2.07) in upper tract urothelial carcinoma (UTUC), but it was only a risk factor for CSS (HR = 2.95, 95%CI = 1.14 to 7.60) in bladder cancer (BC). Besides, preoperative AGR cut - value ≤ 1.4 could not be deemed as a stable prognostic indicator for RFS (HR = 2.07, 95%CI = 0.71 to 6.04) in UC. However, the predictive ability of AGR cut - value > 1.4 was stable. All in all, preoperative low AGR was considered as a risk factor for UC. AGR level can be regarded as a prognostic indicator for OS, CSS, and RFS in UTUC but only for CSS in BC. AGR greater than 1.4 can be a great cut-off value for predicting the prognosis of UC patients with radical operation.